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  • #3,841
  • Feb 8, 2011 11:47pm Feb 8, 2011 11:47pm
Quoting Survivor
Anyone awake and watching GU 1h? Looks familiar? Only trouble is in D1. I would take it anyway.

And the good part is if it breaks up and rushes higher to RN we have a exceptionally beautiful confluence there - RN 35, 50 and 62 All siting together.
I think the pressure from the D1 looks to have won out. Worth looking for a constraint on the M15 for a long, maybe on top of the 50 now it's broken?
  • #3,842
  • Feb 8, 2011 11:52pm Feb 8, 2011 11:52pm
What do you think of the one on the EU (long constrained on 10 - previously on 50)
  • #3,843
  • Feb 9, 2011 12:07am Feb 9, 2011 12:07am
Earlier today... (wasn't trading)

M15, rides down on 35, switches to 50 (with H1 10 and D1 10) then onto 10 EMA, and up for 20 pips!

Attached Image
  • #3,844
  • Feb 9, 2011 1:11am Feb 9, 2011 1:11am
By request. I don't know if I have the energy to do both pairs every day, but it might accelerate my learning process.

1) 10 Touch. Angle is not that steep. One bar retrace. Decent trade. Good for 15 pips or Break even.

2) 35/50 Bounce. This is an interesting trade. The MAs are both steep. They have just started diverging. Below the MAs, there a RN and the 200 (On H1 the 35). If you put the stop below the 200, this would be a great trade. But from the 35, that requires a 22 pip stop. Even from the 15, it would need a 17 pip stop. I think Kostas took this as a higher time frame trade, and I think he looked for a good entrance on the M5. This is good for 30 pips, or more if you were willing to wait out a very wild ride.

3) 35/50 Bounce. Second touch. It doesn’t quite make it to the 50, and this is what I meant by the wild ride in 2). It has a bottom wick of 24 pips. At this point the MAs are parallel again, so it might be a better trade than 2. Worth lots of pips.

4) 10 Touch (35 Bounce almost). The 10 is steep and this is either the first or second touch of it. (Trade 3 was also a 10 touch, but a losing trade if you took it that way.) This is one bar back to the 10. The MAs are steep. Good for 30+ pips.

5) 10 Touch. Loser. There were 10 bars in a row of a rising move. I don’t know if that’s enough to count as a long move so that the 10 touch should create a bounce. This is where I came in for trading last night. I saw this trade and decided against it. My main reasons were that price had tested a strong S/R line and been rejected three times. Two of the rejections were to the pip of each other, creating a double top. And of course, the two bar rule had not been met. Here’s the question I have for myself: if those reasons were strong enough for me to realize the up move was over, then why didn’t I go short (even if its not Dance)? I’m still mulling that one over.

6) 35 Bounce. Winner. I don’t know whether this is a first touch again, or if it is the third touch. The MAs are still steep, but diverging slightly and pretty far apart. In this situation, I would rather wait for a bounce off the last MA, to keep the stop loss tight. This one is good for 15 to 20 pips, but I missed it. I still have a very hard time trying to decide which MA to take the bounce from.

7) 50 Bounce. Break Even. This one is my kind of trade. The MAs again are diverging, but still steep enough. The trade moved quickly to break even. I was waiting for at least 15 pips before taking any profit. It got to 14, twice before heading back to break even. This is an iffy trade, and could probably be passed.

8) 50 Bounce. Winner. MAs are now flat. And its a second or third touch. I saw this as a no trade. On the H1, its the second touch of the 62 and doesn’t quite make it to the 50, and the MAs are pretty flat there too. It dove down 10 pips, and I was pretty happy with myself for seeing it was a no trade. And then it took off. Good for 45- 50 pips.

9) 10 Touch. Winner. Straightforward 10 Touch trade, good for 30 pips.

10) H4 35 Bounce. This is the trade that Kostas called hours beforehand. Here, my big complaint is about my pivot points. My broker starts the day at 5pm Eastern Time. On this day, it looks like that throws my pivots about 10 pips off from other peoples. This was a great trade off the H4 35 and the H1 200. With a trailing stop, this was worth 38 pips, or 36 at the round number.

11) 10 Touch. Loser. This is the second touch and the move has been fairly big. Three bars to get to the touch, which has a confluence with a strong S/R area. There’s no bounce and its a loser. It’s not a terrible trade. Is the move not big enough to break the two bar rule?

12 -13 ) 35/50 Bounce. This is a loser if taken at the 35. MAs are flattening and diverging, which is not good. Probably a no trade. At the 50, you might squeeze 15 pips out of this, or get a break even. The temptation on the 35 is the confluence with the RN. Time of day is also bad, a couple of hours after London close. I probably shouldn’t have marked this one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11508143_ MBT MetaTrader 4 - EURUSD,M15-1.jpg Size: 91 KB
  • #3,845
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:14am Feb 9, 2011 2:14am
Quoting bigtent
Earlier today... (wasn't trading)

M15, rides down on 35, switches to 50 (with H1 10 and D1 10) then onto 10 EMA, and up for 20 pips!

Attachment
I didnt take that one because of big trouble in HTF (see 4H and 1D both shouting sell). In retrospect could have scalped for few pips though overall decision to stay out was ok. Remember - I never take a trade when i see some MA in HTF that can hold the price against my position. Saw lots of these in EU.
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #3,846
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:16am Feb 9, 2011 2:16am
Quoting bigtent
I think the pressure from the D1 looks to have won out. Worth looking for a constraint on the M15 for a long, maybe on top of the 50 now it's broken?
Yups d1 Won for now. should have avoided that trade. Anyway the pair seems to be totally confused and becoming more and more dangerous to trade by every minute.
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #3,847
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:28am Feb 9, 2011 2:28am
Quoting Survivor
I didnt take that one because of big trouble in HTF (see 4H and 1D both shouting sell). In retrospect could have scalped for few pips though overall decision to stay out was ok. Remember - I never take a trade when i see some MA in HTF that can hold the price against my position. Saw lots of these in EU.
I'd disagree on the D1. Price is around the 10 (just above) and way above the 35/50 which are rising and converging.

As for H4, Cables' H4 is a dog's breakfast!
  • #3,848
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:45am Feb 9, 2011 2:45am
Quoting Survivor
Yups d1 Won for now. should have avoided that trade. Anyway the pair seems to be totally confused and becoming more and more dangerous to trade by every minute.
I was a hair's breadth away from joining you. Went and lost a few pips on a failed bounce on the EU instead, then watched the perfect entry go by as I literally had my hands full and couldn't place the trade LOL ..... NEXT!
  • #3,849
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:47am Feb 9, 2011 2:47am
Quoting duffypratt
By request. I don't know if I have the energy to do both pairs every day, but it might accelerate my learning process.
thanks for posting this, though it was a tough day for EU also, not many clear signals.
for me only (1) and (9) would be clear straightforward with_the_trend touches and these are the only ones i will be sticking with from now on.
the (10) the signal Kostas gave earlier was there all day and still is.
H1 200 and H4 35. it may still play out today as the price so far is constrained between H4 10 and 35.
cheers
  • #3,850
  • Edited 4:00am Feb 9, 2011 3:35am | Edited 4:00am
Quoting asos101
thanks for posting this, though it was a tough day for EU also, not many clear signals.
for me only (1) and (9) would be clear straightforward with_the_trend touches and these are the only ones i will be sticking with from now on.
the (10) the signal Kostas gave earlier was there all day and still is.
H1 200 and H4 35. it may still play out today as the price so far is constrained between H4 10 and 35.
cheers
Looking on the H4, both the EU and Cable are being squeezed.... just have to see which way they spurt when they pop!

Or play ping pong while we wait for the band to turn up!
  • #3,851
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:28am Feb 9, 2011 4:28am
If anyone had any doubts on how these particular moving averages act as SR, tonight is a good display.... With conflicting H1, H4 and D4, they've virtually shut down the London session!

I will probably miss the resulting explosion, as I have to call it a night early. Hope there's a decent dance signal for you all to catch when it finally breaks out.
  • #3,852
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:27am Feb 9, 2011 6:27am
Hey guys,

Is it a not good trading day today (meaning that there are not clear signals) or it is just my poor skills?
You are allowed to fall but you are imposed to get up!
  • #3,853
  • Feb 9, 2011 9:56am Feb 9, 2011 9:56am
Quoting iero4
Hey guys,

Is it a not good trading day today (meaning that there are not clear signals) or it is just my poor skills?
Surely a bad day. Am down one trade from morning GU constrainment that i tried.

After that didnt see any good trade. Of course there was enough juice in GU 1h to achieve daily target if you saw confluence as i mentioned in morning. Am sure kostas would have caught it and made his daily target.

However that was only good trade i could see whole day till now.
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #3,854
  • Feb 9, 2011 10:39am Feb 9, 2011 10:39am
Quoting Survivor
Surely a bad day. Am down one trade from morning GU constrainment that i tried.

After that didnt see any good trade. Of course there was enough juice in GU 1h to achieve daily target if you saw confluence as i mentioned in morning. Am sure kostas would have caught it and made his daily target.

However that was only good trade i could see whole day till now.
there were 3 (in a row) perfect 2 bar retrace bounces off the H1 35/50 in GU
good for at least 15 pips each. but i didnt take any. other than that i dont see any nice by the rules action so far
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 9 feb 2011.jpg Size: 250 KB
  • #3,855
  • Feb 9, 2011 10:59am Feb 9, 2011 10:59am
Quoting Survivor
Surely a bad day. Am down one trade from morning GU constrainment that i tried.

After that didnt see any good trade. Of course there was enough juice in GU 1h to achieve daily target if you saw confluence as i mentioned in morning. Am sure kostas would have caught it and made his daily target.

However that was only good trade i could see whole day till now.
I took a kind of a "scooping up" trade. All day I only had a +7p profit from an EU scalp but in the afternoon, I noticed this strong upwards move for GU. When the M15 bar bounced from M15 10 and at the same time crossed H1 and weekly pivot upwards, I got in long. Target was H4 35 but I closed earlier at +39p. This is not recommended for newbies, so just keep it at the back of your head for now...
Attached Image
  • #3,856
  • Feb 9, 2011 11:50am Feb 9, 2011 11:50am
Quoting kostas1
I took a kind of a "scooping up" trade. All day I only had a +7p profit from an EU scalp but in the afternoon, I noticed this strong upwards move for GU. When the M15 bar bounced from M15 10 and at the same time crossed H1 and weekly pivot upwards, I got in long. Target was H4 35 but I closed earlier at +39p. This is not recommended for newbies, so just keep it at the back of your head for now...

Hmmm ... nice catch. I will have to change my understanding of scooped up. As of now, i take only those with long wick through the MA as valid scooped up trades. Now i see you taking just bounces off it. EXPERIENCE and persistence is what is needed.

The trouble is that there are days without good constrainments and that makes me impatient. Today i knew Gu wasn't a good trade but took it out of sheer frustration. I mean you don't fight tanks ( D1) firing at you with grenades (H1).....Still a lot to learn.

And i must master touches. I watch them developing and understand when someone points it out. But in real time i am just too scared to pull the trigger. maybe psychology or maybe past burns are yet to heal. Either way, watching them day and night is bound to help!
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #3,857
  • Edited 12:24pm Feb 9, 2011 11:57am | Edited 12:24pm
Quoting asos101
there were 3 (in a row) perfect 2 bar retrace bounces off the H1 35/50 in GU
good for at least 15 pips each. but i didnt take any. other than that i dont see any nice by the rules action so far
I really dont know if you have got them right asos. As i said, i am not yet good with these trades. But i find YOUR trades funny. Two bar retraces arent supposed to be bounce from 35/50. One thing is very clear in manual. IIf prices are above 35/50 n 15M the only take long trades. Here you are pointing out shorts at 10 EMA. Not my cup of tea.
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #3,858
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:21pm Feb 9, 2011 2:21pm
Quoting Survivor
Background: I love constrainments. They give big moves and one can catch hi or lo with them. But i had always had this guilt feeling of leaving too much on the table and getting out for peanuts. Today when started my usual constrainment scan and i see this beauty in EU. Now in a fast mover like EU 1H constrainment ought o be worth some good pips. So i decided to hang on to this one.

Spotting the trade- Pretty strong trend. Constrainment at 10 EMA. No resistances in HTF - I mean no HTF MAs above price to hold it down....

.

hello Survivor, in the attachment on this post #3486 you have written NO MAS ABOVE PRICE.. i dont get what thats suppose to mean? can you please explain... Thanking you in advance :-)
'To get something you never had, you have to do something you never did.'
  • #3,859
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:29pm Feb 9, 2011 2:29pm
Quoting Survivor
Hmmm ... nice catch. I will have to change my understanding of scooped up. As of now, i take only those with long wick through the MA as valid scooped up trades. Now i see you taking just bounces off it. EXPERIENCE and persistence is what is needed.

The trouble is that there are days without good constrainments and that makes me impatient. Today i knew Gu wasn't a good trade but took it out of sheer frustration. I mean you don't fight tanks ( D1) firing at you with grenades (H1).....Still a lot to learn.

And i must master touches. I watch them...
I share the same problem on touches, but got a beauty the day before... (Note to self: Have to extract the digit and finish that modified MA to see if it helps.)

Talking about scoops ....

That was another thing I was thinking about the EU H4 yesterday, when we were discussing the constrained action on the EU and you thought H4 was shouting sell, but I was seeing it differently.

Though price was below the 35/50 I thought it looked like it was starting to be "scooped" ... I should have mentioned it then. The doji after it crosses above the 10 is in the middle of that M15 constraint I was talking about. This is what it looked like around then....

Attached Image


And then later it is very evident...

Attached Image
  • #3,860
  • Feb 9, 2011 2:47pm Feb 9, 2011 2:47pm
Quoting asos101
there were 3 (in a row) perfect 2 bar retrace bounces off the H1 35/50 in GU
good for at least 15 pips each. but i didnt take any. other than that i dont see any nice by the rules action so far

Saw them but in each case was not sure on taking them, as I thought it had to bust through to get out of the squeeze.

This is why I posted the remark about "playing ping pong until the band turned up" and we'd be able to start dancing.

I'm not quite ready to play that game, so I sat out and watched.

There were several "ping pong" trades on both the EU and Cable, but they were between various MAs from all time frames D1, H4, H1 and M15, as the the squeeze was happening.

On both pairs, D1 was pushing long from below, and M15 was either long (EU), or flat and maybe turning (GBP), while H1 and H4 was producing short pressure form above, creating the squeeze.

My guess was it would break long, and that D1 would win the battle, but I wasn't that confident, and the longer it dragged, the less confident I got. I thought it was going to go short at one stage, but the move turned back up (where I was tempted to short when it came back to the MAs.... dodged a bullet!)

A good day for education, but a real pain for trading!
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