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  • #383,401
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:27pm Feb 9, 2011 6:27pm
Quoting cloggie
That's how to calculate estimated volatility, it is still not pure volume and the VSA traders that frequent these halls just don't get that.
That is exactly right. Range vol metrics are just more efficient ways to get more "spot" volatility measures. Actually, they're probably most useful for options spread traders. They don't give volume proxies. And any use of "vol" I might have had in my post did mean volatility, not volume.


Quoting cloggie
The whole volume thing in FX is just a poorman's estimate and I can guarantee you that most don't understand or even know the calculations behind whatever indicator they use to trade.
Yep, without active monitoring of the dance at the clearing price, there's no way to even estimate the volume, and even that can't really do it. You can measure current "intensity" or "urgency" or aggressiveness, but that's not really volume, either.

Big orders don't just come up and engulf the other side all the way up; they wait and iceberg their true size, appearing and disappearing in the ECNs. If a bank has a big commercial or hedge fund order, they have to do that, generally bound by "or better," or by limit caps where they'll be able to pocket a little if they can fill smart.

Bottom line, as you say, we don't know volume, and can't, as the market exists now.
  • #383,402
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:29pm Feb 9, 2011 6:29pm
Quoting Venice
I think using the 'volume' bars in a scalping scenario is where it will provide use. You will know if there is plenty of play coming in to bounce off of.

With that being said, volume is irrelevant to me on the bigger time frames.
Yo V, yo V, yeah that's exactly how I use it on m1 and m5...
  • #383,403
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:32pm Feb 9, 2011 6:32pm
re post from earlier if you missed it...

Not for those with delicate sensibilities... i.e. if you find swearing terribly offensive... you've been warned!

Inserted Video
  • #383,404
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:33pm Feb 9, 2011 6:33pm
And the bad thing is that if it cost you a week's worth of work sometimes it might take two weeks to make it back.

Another lesson is (if someone loses 50% of their account then it will take a gain of 100% to get back to even). That is a hard lesson for new traders to learn).


Quoting yakuzaking
Leverage is a fickle bitch ,
yesterday's stop loss cost me whole week's profit
  • #383,405
  • Edited Feb 10, 2011 10:31am Feb 9, 2011 6:38pm | Edited Feb 10, 2011 10:31am
Quoting FibbinArchie
interesting to note where the high came in, predictable with the use of channel lines and accurate pretty much to the tick, so much for random walk...
FibbinArchie here's what I did to the M15 chart you posted, so to put emphasis on the shakeout that took place on Monday between 5540-5510. I used Equidistant Channel. It is not simple for a retail trader to see this because they are always afraid to lose and their investment TF is very short. Hence they mostly become liquidity providers at the end. Market Makers/BANKS never lose their constantly keeping their books balanced .That is why they survived for hundreds of years. They have the upper hand and you should have the same mindset as them. All timeframes have their 'Players'. I try to monitor them all. I do not invest, I trade. I also watch Stoch/Rsi indies too for different TFs just to monitor how retailers' sentiment/stress levels are. As you know, the indis adjust and tend to stay overbought/oversold far too longer than their accounts can survive.
  • #383,406
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:42pm Feb 9, 2011 6:42pm
Quoting OldQuant

Bottom line, as you say, we don't know volume, and can't, as the market exists now.

And that's what these young bucks just can't understand. There are dozens of threads here dedicated to volume trading, go figure.

There are so many myths in the retail sphere I never knew existed until I started coming here. Probably the biggest mistake I made.
  • #383,407
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:42pm Feb 9, 2011 6:42pm
curious if hour will close below 3713. if so this may be a suckers game.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #383,408
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:44pm Feb 9, 2011 6:44pm
Quoting momento
FibbinArchie here's what I did to the M15 chart you posted, so to put emphasis on the shakeout that took place on Monday between 5540-5510. I used Equidistant Channel. It is not simple for a retail trader to see this because they are always afraid to lose and their investment TF is very short. Hence they mostly become liquidity providers at the end. Market Makers/BANKS never lose their constantly keeping their books balanced .That is why they survived for hundreds of years. They have the upper hand and you should have the same mindset as them. All...
I like your thinking, yes agree the deeper your pockets, the less required percentage risk exposure, thus less emotional decision making and the easier it is to play the game...
  • #383,409
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:45pm Feb 9, 2011 6:45pm
Quoting gatorinla
curious if hour will close below 3713. if so this may be a suckers game.
shave it down to 3712 or above 3714
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #383,410
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:47pm Feb 9, 2011 6:47pm
Why AUD/USD going down????
AUD data was positive????
  • #383,411
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:49pm Feb 9, 2011 6:49pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
I like your thinking, yes agree the deeper your pockets, the less required percentage risk exposure, thus less emotional decision making and the easier it is to play the game...
Even the ones with smaller accounts, like myself, find it so hard to realize how much easier trading becomes when using micro lots.

If your trading a 500$ account or less, .01-.02 maximum lot sizes. Play pennies. Move up proportionally as your account size increases.

If you constantly loose, at least you are loosing little.

It's such an easy concept to grasp, and yet no one ever follows it, regardless of the times it is barked down ones throat.

It only took me two blown accounts to stop doing that! lol.

Pips are pips... if you are consistent in making them, the money will come. This is why I try and focus on trading, and not making money.

However, I must say, ever since I switched to daily charts... things have become so much harder. I'm not sure what steam these people are blowing out their collective arses saying the higher the time frame, the easier it is. Less stressful, definitely. By no means easier. Either that, or I am just completely missing something... lol
  • #383,412
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:51pm Feb 9, 2011 6:51pm
Quoting aarontdang
Why AUD/USD going down????
AUD data was positive????
news results != currency direction.
  • #383,413
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:52pm Feb 9, 2011 6:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
shave it down to 3712 or above 3714
Top of minor mofu?

below that 3706, 50ema on m15, previous sup and 50% fibo...
  • #383,414
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:55pm Feb 9, 2011 6:55pm
I blow up 80% of my profit this week today
Always tell myself not to trade during overlap between
London n NY .. but stupid me ..

only up 5% balance this week so far...
this week still young
  • #383,415
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:55pm Feb 9, 2011 6:55pm
Quoting Venice
Even the ones with smaller accounts, like myself, find it so hard to realize how much easier trading becomes when using micro lots.

If your trading a 500$ account or less, .01-.02 maximum lot sizes. Play pennies. Move up proportionally as your account size increases.

If you constantly loose, at least you are loosing little.

It's such an easy concept to grasp, and yet no one ever follows it, regardless of the times it is barked down ones throat.

It only took me two blown accounts to stop doing that! lol.

Pips are pips... if you are consistent...
It's ironic that because people are trying to get rich quick, they are actually slowing the process...
  • #383,416
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:58pm Feb 9, 2011 6:58pm
Quoting Venice
news results != currency direction.

There's my be something that make USD strong right now...
maybe news we don't know about
  • #383,417
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:59pm Feb 9, 2011 6:59pm
Anyone seeing a Head/Shoulders in EURO?
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  • #383,418
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:59pm Feb 9, 2011 6:59pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
It's ironic that because people are trying to get rich quick, they are actually slowing the process...
agreed. I massively toned down my account again by shifting money to a sub-account. I couldn't stand the mental pressure of "getting rich quick" any more... I'm serious about that.
  • #383,419
  • Feb 9, 2011 7:00pm Feb 9, 2011 7:00pm
Quoting aarontdang
I blow up 80% of my profit this week today
Always tell myself not to trade during overlap between
London n NY .. but stupid me ..

only up 5% balance this week so far...
this week still young
Thats an awful lot , I have a rule that i will never lose more than 5% on any given trade , 5% is easier to get back than 80%, I try and use the best money management that I can !
  • #383,420
  • Feb 9, 2011 7:01pm Feb 9, 2011 7:01pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
agreed. I massively toned down my account again by shifting money to a sub-account. I couldn't stand the mental pressure of "getting rich quick" any more... I'm serious about that.
anything that helps eliminate adrenalin and emotion...

You need to change mind set appropriately as your equity increases, gotta watch those mental gremlins...
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