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  • #383,381
  • Feb 9, 2011 5:24pm Feb 9, 2011 5:24pm
Quoting Warwick
Not a big fan of charts. .... 90% positioning stats.
The human is mind is very predictable over time, hence where the herd will place their stops.
The pros bank on it, literally...
  • #383,382
  • Feb 9, 2011 5:25pm Feb 9, 2011 5:25pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
In my hypothesis, the up trend remains intact, so I hope you don't think that I am screaming short short.

The thing is that it don't go route one often, and sessions have a habit of retracing the previous session...
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/png.gif 2011-02-10_00h23_EURUSD _ min180 _ (1100 x 800) candle + ST.PNG (26.4 KB)

Exactly ... previous daily candle and todays candle should overlap due to a retrace a little at first ...



;-|
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-02-10_00h23_EURUSD _ min180 _ (1100 x 800) candle + ST.PNG Size: 26 KB
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #383,383
  • Feb 9, 2011 5:29pm Feb 9, 2011 5:29pm
interesting to note where the high came in, predictable with the use of channel lines and accurate pretty much to the tick, so much for random walk...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #383,384
  • Feb 9, 2011 5:43pm Feb 9, 2011 5:43pm
m15 : channel
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  • #383,385
  • Feb 9, 2011 5:47pm Feb 9, 2011 5:47pm
Quoting Larseg
Im pretty sure I saw an article saying it was 80% similar to real volume in most brokers, ill try to find it. Or it doesnt really matter when I think of it as long as it works

cheers
True if it works that is all that matters.

Changes in the bid or ask do represents the tug of war in which direction price is moving.

Most times you can see if volume is rising on an upmove then it has strength and continues. If it doesn't most times at least a correction if not a complete reversal happens.

Same for downtrends.
  • #383,386
  • Feb 9, 2011 5:52pm Feb 9, 2011 5:52pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
interesting to note where the high came in, predictable with the use of channel lines and accurate pretty much to the tick, so much for random walk...
Just two questions, in the spirit of Devil's Advocate:

1. Why didn't the left bounding point of the yellow trend line get drawn off that top, instead of at a point a little lower and to the right of the top?

2. Regarding "so much for random walk", what would happen to the market if, each and every time, the high would assuredly come in just where a publicly available (and it is publicly available now: thanks ) channel line says it will.
  • #383,387
  • Edited 6:13pm Feb 9, 2011 5:56pm | Edited 6:13pm
Quoting OldQuant
Just two questions, in the spirit of Devil's Advocate:

1. Why didn't the left bounding point of the yellow trend line get drawn off that top, instead of at a point a little lower and to the right of the top?

2. Regarding "so much for random walk", what would happen to the market if, each and every time, the high would assuredly come in just where a publicly available (and it is publicly available now: thanks ) channel line says it will.
1. Forget the left hand side, two low points projected to the intermediate high...

2. Dunno, was just a flippant comment, and no they don't always work, just a probability thing...
  • #383,388
  • Feb 9, 2011 5:56pm Feb 9, 2011 5:56pm
Quoting SunTrader
True if it works that is all that matters.

Changes in the bid or ask do represents the tug of war in which direction price is moving.

Most times you can see if volume is rising on an upmove then it has strength and continues. If it doesn't most times at least a correction if not a complete reversal happens.

Same for downtrends.

To calculate and display volume correctly you need the volume transacted at the bid or ask and the average trade size, neither of which is available in FX. Just looking at tick moves, is just basic PA and has little to do with volume.
  • #383,389
  • Feb 9, 2011 5:58pm Feb 9, 2011 5:58pm
Quoting SunTrader
Changes in the bid or ask do represents the tug of war in which direction price is moving.

Most times you can see if volume is rising on an upmove then it has strength and continues. If it doesn't most times at least a correction if not a complete reversal happens.
The lack of volume data, and the ambiguity between liquidity and volatility is one reason range-based vol metrics have a place in forex, in spite of the fact they're not widely known, at least in the retail world.

They don't use open-to-open changes like, e.g., Bollinger calcs, but instead use the (hi-lo) and (cl-op) for each "bar". One of the classics (Google will give source, citations, and applications), using OHLC values, is:

Garman-Klass = Sqrt((H-L)*(H-L)/2 - (2ln(2)-1)*(C-O)*(C-O)).

If a bar has no "wicks", and (H-L)=(O-C) (in abs val), then the vol of the bar is about .34 of bar length. If the bar has no body (open = close), then the vol of the bar is about .70 of bar length. And that says, in effect, that the first bar likely has some "directional persistence" in it, while the second is almost pure noise and is probably not going anywhere.

Just sayin', YYMV.
  • #383,390
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:01pm Feb 9, 2011 6:01pm
Quoting Magix
Sorry for the delayed response, I was running a few errands...

I took 20 on 1 and am going to ride the other one out...
Thanks Magix,

I like your entry, might be a perfect one
But is it just short term trade ( 30-50 pips ) or r u looking for 100 or more ?
If so when are you moving sl ? after 50 , maybe 100 pips move in your favor?
I trade a bit longer time frames but i am curious about your style of managing the trade. I am counting on the third weekly doji candle or maybe more
I am more and more bullish on USD even agains AUD, we will see.
take care
  • #383,391
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:02pm Feb 9, 2011 6:02pm
Quoting OldQuant
The lack of volume data, and the ambiguity between liquidity and volatility is one reason range-based vol metrics have a place in forex, in spite of the fact they're not widely known, at least in the retail world....

That's how to calculate estimated volatility, it is still not pure volume and the VSA traders that frequent these halls just don't get that. Adding DU measure of volatility would make the estimate a bit more workeable as it gets a bit closer to true volume, the only bit missing is still the volume bit, how large of a size is actually being traded. The whole volume thing in FX is just a poorman's estimate and I can guarantee you that most don't understand or even know the calculations behind whatever indicator they use to trade.
  • #383,392
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:04pm Feb 9, 2011 6:04pm
Quoting OldQuant
Curious about this as well.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=383452
  • #383,393
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:08pm Feb 9, 2011 6:08pm
Leverage is a fickle bitch ,
yesterday's stop loss cost me whole week's profit
  • #383,394
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:09pm Feb 9, 2011 6:09pm
Quoting yakuzaking
Leverage is a fickle bitch ,

Actually understanding and accepting that puts you ahead of the game.


Enough of me, see y'all later.
  • #383,395
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:10pm Feb 9, 2011 6:10pm
Quoting yakuzaking
Leverage is a fickle bitch ,
yesterday's stop loss cost me whole week's profit
Something I'm quite sure most traders can relate to as having happened to them at one stage or another in their careers, be thankful that you weren't punished more than a week's worth of profit...
  • #383,396
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:20pm Feb 9, 2011 6:20pm
thanks boys, happy charting.
  • #383,397
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:20pm Feb 9, 2011 6:20pm
Quoting Warwick
Not a big fan of charts. .... 90% positioning stats.
The human is mind is very predictable over time, hence where the herd will place their stops.
That's why I rarely use stops - I use fundamental analysis, observe market price action and reaction to news events, and trade with a real feeling for the market. I ride waves and follow trends - never perfect but highly successful so far... charts DO tell me what everyone else is thinking.
  • #383,398
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:22pm Feb 9, 2011 6:22pm
Quoting cloggie
To calculate and display volume correctly you need the volume transacted at the bid or ask and the average trade size, neither of which is available in FX. Just looking at tick moves, is just basic PA and has little to do with volume.
Let' start with, as I said earlier, you do realize that it is either the bid or the ask that you are looking at when you look at a "price" chart?


And I am aware that volume is not volume of lots changing hands. It is the number of times the bid(ask) changes.

For me that is good enough.
  • #383,399
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:24pm Feb 9, 2011 6:24pm
Quoting SunTrader
Let' start with, as I said earlier, you do realize that it is either the bid or the ask that you are looking at when you look at a "price" chart?


And I am aware that volume is not volume of lots changing hands. It is the number of times the bid(ask) changes.

For me that is good enough.
Same here, but actually fed up to the back teeth of trying to convince doubters...
  • #383,400
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:26pm Feb 9, 2011 6:26pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
Same here, but actually fed up to the back teeth of trying to convince doubters...
I think using the 'volume' bars in a scalping scenario is where it will provide use. You will know if there is plenty of play coming in to bounce off of.

With that being said, volume is irrelevant to me on the bigger time frames.
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