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  • #4,181
  • Feb 6, 2011 3:39pm Feb 6, 2011 3:39pm
Quoting VEEFX
Wondering how folks are doing in achieving their "1Thing" in regards to their entries. I think I have nailed most of the aspects of Graeme's teachings but find myself challenged with this one important aspect.

"You should know your entry method so well you can vouch it with your life"

I have reached the 400+ trade mark in my practice since November/December. Only a handful of PA based setups have proved to be promising so far....
thats the reason I only trade eu...imo low risk entries only possible with a solid,sharp entry and good timing..But trying to trade more than few pairs (to me more than one) would just make things messier while you try to be very accurate with your entry..besides do i really need another pair to trade if i'm already getting enough entries with one pair during a week..
and why only eurusd?because people mostly watching it,its got the highest trading volume.simple.
and another issue is spread as i tend to risk no more than 10 pips per trade..But some other pairs got 3-5 pips spread already and they're not easy to make move.so why should i pay more for something slower,smaller..
this all imho..
good luck all
  • #4,182
  • Edited 5:32pm Feb 6, 2011 5:19pm | Edited 5:32pm
Quoting VEEFX
Wondering how folks are doing in achieving their "1Thing" in regards to their entries. I think I have nailed most of the aspects of Graeme's teachings but find myself challenged with this one important aspect.

"You should know your entry method so well you can vouch it with your life"

I have reached the 400+ trade mark in my practice since November/December. Only a handful of PA based setups have proved to be promising so far....
Hello Veefx,

for what it is worth to you

I have found my one thing reading clockwork and the nobrain trade thread here, basically, it is a higher TF resistance/support level/confluence zone with fib levels then zooming in on 5 min and look for engulfing/pin bars PA. (they are the same thing, engulfing is just a 10minute pinbar)

the reason i like this set up is:
1. going with the higher TF bias (weekly, daily, 4 hour, hourly, etc etc)
2. Limit my losses significantly using lower TF but still going with the higher TF
3. pin bar/ engulfing, in my opinion causes the most significant psychological damage for traders sitting on the other side of the trade, especially if it happened as a false break out (edit: easy-to-see price patterns as well (must be easy to see, if you cant see it, most likely other traders/banks dont see it either)).

but all in all, the three parts above can be summed as:
we are trying to find uneven probability distribution zones to curve the probability of being on the right side in our favor, the higher the better.

this is just my two cent, hope it can help you a little to find your own thing. this is my one thing, and i wish you the best in finding yours.

but the big concept about your one thing should be (a concept taught by master Graeme):

You can move this position to BE very soon ^.^

good luck and best wishes for you
  • #4,183
  • Feb 6, 2011 6:10pm Feb 6, 2011 6:10pm
Quoting wangyue22
Hello Veefx,

for what it is worth to you

I have found my one thing reading clockwork and the nobrain trade thread here, basically, it is a higher TF resistance/support level/confluence zone with fib levels then zooming in on 5 min and look for engulfing/pin bars PA. (they are the same thing, engulfing is just a 10minute pinbar)

the reason i like this set up is:
1. going with the higher TF bias (weekly, daily, 4 hour, hourly, etc etc)
2. Limit my losses significantly using lower TF but still going with the higher TF
3. pin bar/ engulfing,...
Hi wang

I really like this response. It sums up the way I see it too.

@Vee: Thanks for the really great post. I was trying to find my answer to your post when I saw this answer from Wang. There is another thought that comes to mind for me when I think about the 'one-thing' issue. Could it be that our 1thing might be 'low risk entry' rather then any one particular price action 'set-up'? I suggest this since we cannot know which way the market will go.

Dan
  • #4,184
  • Feb 6, 2011 6:18pm Feb 6, 2011 6:18pm
Quoting zoli
Hi All,

I greet you and want to say thanks for your input. I have been reading the thread for a while and I just got to the end. I like what I have read here and I learned a lot. I have been learning to trade for 2 years now with no real success but more and more knowledge about myself. That is correct, for knowledge about onself seems to be a major importance when it comes to trading.
Greame is the first only person, who stated in a very intelligent way that he actually does not know where the market is going.

I find that helpful as I have...
I disagree with the whole premise of comparing theories of time required to become an expert in a profession to trading. You are comparing apples and oranges. All professions requiring degrees require one to learn massive amounts of information and how to process it.

You require no such thing in trading which is why a 14yo could do it and some do.

One can learn the basics in a few weeks. It's the psychology that is the hard part and depending on how you are wired it will be harder for some than others.
  • #4,185
  • Feb 6, 2011 6:22pm Feb 6, 2011 6:22pm
Quoting wangyue22
Hello Veefx,

for what it is worth to you

I have found my one thing reading clockwork and the nobrain trade thread here, basically, it is a higher TF resistance/support level/confluence zone with fib levels then zooming in on 5 min and look for engulfing/pin bars PA. (they are the same thing, engulfing is just a 10minute pinbar)

the reason i like this set up is:
1. going with the higher TF bias (weekly, daily, 4 hour, hourly, etc etc)
2. Limit my losses significantly using lower TF but still going with the higher TF
3. pin bar/ engulfing,...
Thanks nomask. Taking 10-15 trades/week and sticking to one pair is like going back to 'old school trading style' for me. I am quite convinced about spreading to multiple pairs and 'time spacing' entries helps in profitability and success.

Thanks wangyue22 for your response. I must admit, I did initially focussed a LOT on moving trades to BE just to emotionally satisfy myself with the increased percentage but unfortunately, it also instigated bad behavour in me as I was moving my SLs too frequently (under 10 pips). Later on, I realized the amount of mental concentration and fatigue it required was just not worth my time and effort.

Now I focus on atleast 10x the spread (atleast 15x for GBP and JPY pairs) before moving my SL to BE. I have this 'consultant' attitude that I must be paid for my time and effort.

My preference (although very hard to achieve) is ...

"80% of trades should be BE and 50% of those must survive until the close of current daily candle". Only then I would consider it as my 1Thing.
It will probably take me another 1000000000000000000 trades to get there
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,186
  • Feb 6, 2011 6:40pm Feb 6, 2011 6:40pm
Quoting andante9
Hi wang

I really like this response. It sums up the way I see it too.

@Vee: Thanks for the really great post. I was trying to find my answer to your post when I saw this answer from Wang. There is another thought that comes to mind for me when I think about the 'one-thing' issue. Could it be that our 1thing might be 'low risk entry' rather then any one particular price action 'set-up'? I suggest this since we cannot know which way the market will go.

Dan
IMHO, I am convinced 'low risk entries' is a MAJOR contributing factor that helped Graeme become so successful. It is the epicenter of smooth equity curve allowing him to limit drawdowns which also allows for 'faster' diversification and add to capital growth. Diversifications also allow Graeme to 'square up on the scorecard' which emotionally allows him to shoot for infinite yield which in turn also helps him to trade in so many pairs and maintain his sanity. It would drive me nuts to keep track of so many positions they are were not fully 'balanced' i.e. free ride with realized pip loss recovered.

It is similar to housing market. If you have equity in the house more than what you paid for (or what you owe on your mortgage), it should not matter how the housing market performs on a month to month basis as long as you intend to live in your house for the next 30 yrs and pass it on to your kids.

I wanted to mention this in my post but didn't as it might sound a bit cliche... 'constant' participation in the market could indeed be the 1Thing. I don't believe 'random' participation could take us anywhere though. I tried 'almost' random entries across 30 pairs @ daily open for a month or so (when I mentally and emotionally could not focus on FX) and it had invariably mixed results.... huge 40+% drawdown with some entries ending in 1000+ pips but overall still in the red.
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,187
  • Feb 6, 2011 8:52pm Feb 6, 2011 8:52pm
Quoting VEEFX
IMHO, I am convinced 'low risk entries' is a MAJOR contributing factor that helped Graeme become so successful. It is the epicenter of smooth equity curve allowing him to limit drawdowns which also allows for 'faster' diversification and add to capital growth. Diversifications also allow Graeme to 'square up on the scorecard' which emotionally allows him to shoot for infinite yield which in turn also helps him to trade in so many pairs and maintain his sanity. It would drive me nuts to keep track of so many positions they are were not fully 'balanced'...
Agreed for sure! Random entry based on a set limit SL can have a great drawdown (or maybe reward) but it is not for the weak of heart as the risk is very high.

I like your idea of constant participation as well. For me I am trying to zero in on that idea of particpation along with using low risk (to account) entries. Perhaps momentum. Perhaps a strong S/R. Perhaps a pending penant breakout.

Diversification I think is another thing altogether and will reveal itself to a trader in time. I say this because I think the small SL and BE trades take care of themselves and the longer term winners should easily overcome them as long as one does not overtrade as you have pointed out. So when longer term trades benefit from an extended movement then the return is great because the risk was always held small.

I think that stacking is also key, of course, but can lead to more SL and BE then one might like. This is when momentum should really help I think.

Dan
  • #4,188
  • Feb 6, 2011 11:30pm Feb 6, 2011 11:30pm
Quoting hubbahubba
I disagree with the whole premise of comparing theories of time required to become an expert in a profession to trading. You are comparing apples and oranges. All professions requiring degrees require one to learn massive amounts of information and how to process it.

You require no such thing in trading which is why a 14yo could do it and some do.

One can learn the basics in a few weeks. It's the psychology that is the hard part and depending on how you are wired it will be harder for some than others.
Hi Hubbahubba

thank you for your response.

As I see trading as an activity, it is not the actual process of placing entries and exits that makes the difficulty, not even the learning of some method and do the job. As you pointed out, a 14 years old could do that. I believe the job is really, for most people, the underlying psychology behind the activity. That is the hard deal. That is why I stil have a lot ahead. In our "standard" world things work totally differently as in trading and one has grown up in those educational environment - as most - it is almost like rewireing your brain.

Sure, you are perfectly correct, from my part too, saying that it is harder for some than for others. I think many of you guys in the nice wester world have advantage as in your countries there are more traders, and much more open minds. That is good.

Ba all means, in this thread Greama reiterates that it takes a good time but very possible.
Kind Regards zol
  • #4,189
  • Feb 7, 2011 1:14am Feb 7, 2011 1:14am
here is my thought about this week...simple enough..
weekly
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...a-f6ac75fb88f1
4hr
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...f-b8c28ab31b6e
  • #4,190
  • Feb 7, 2011 1:40am Feb 7, 2011 1:40am
Quoting nomask
here is my thought about this week...simple enough..
weekly
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...a-f6ac75fb88f1
4hr
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...f-b8c28ab31b6e
good one nomask. I have one short from friday and another one from today (a bit too close for my taste though). I think this is a week to go short if it 'fiercely' breaks below 1.3570 resistance level. If it doesn't breakout, that would be it on E/U for this week for me... time will tell.

p.s. 1ema line chart on Daily is a work of art :-
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,191
  • Feb 8, 2011 8:33am Feb 8, 2011 8:33am
Hello Graeme and everyone in Forex Factory and this thread as well..

I just started with Oanda, and Oanda does not allow hedging, so if I were to open a long trade, I can't open a short trade, so sometimes its quite hard for me to adapt to Graeme's trading style, so I am thinking of having a sub-account, and open both primary and sub-accounts at the same time, trading both long/short respectively..

Reasons why I am not with other broker is Oanda is in the country where I am staying now, which is Singapore..

Anyhow happy trading guys..
  • #4,192
  • Feb 8, 2011 11:55am Feb 8, 2011 11:55am
I took a short trade on eu today which ended as a b.e trade...although its moved upward since my only position died at b.e i still hold my bias down...
here is a possible scenario very likely to happen IMO...we'll find out at some point..
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...c-19d0e22cf5cf
  • #4,193
  • Feb 8, 2011 9:25pm Feb 8, 2011 9:25pm
I've been studying this thread since it started and have never participated until now. Amazing stuff, thanks to Graeme and everyone for all the contributions.

Just wondering if anyone is taking any nibbles on USDJPY? It's been on a downtrend for a very long time and has recently consolidated on the weekly time frame near the all-time low, with some signs of strength on the Daily. Anyone taken any probes on this one?

Best,

JCPFX
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2011-02-08 at 7.13.53 PM.jpg Size: 172 KB
  • #4,194
  • Feb 8, 2011 10:55pm Feb 8, 2011 10:55pm
Quoting VEEFX
IMHO, I am convinced 'low risk entries' is a MAJOR contributing factor that helped Graeme become so successful.
Couldn't agree more. Well said.

For me low risk means price is likely to move quickly away from the S/L. If it then comes back to you with some memo (didn't turn out to be low risk), then exit, be it with a small profit or a small loss (which will hopefully balance out). If it has legs then let it run, stacking as price allows.

For my mental health, there is a big difference between a drawdown against unrealised profits and a drawdown of realised profits.
Good Trading
  • #4,195
  • Edited 9:25pm Feb 9, 2011 12:04am | Edited 9:25pm
Quoting nomask
I took a short trade on eu today which ended as a b.e trade...although its moved upward since my only position died at b.e i still hold my bias down...
here is a possible scenario very likely to happen IMO...we'll find out at some point..
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...c-19d0e22cf5cf
Glad we have the same bias

Posting this for those of us still participating in Graeme's short-only E/U exercise which I believe is still in the works.... my 2 cents below:

Using Inception, FB already on Weekly and Daily seems a good indication for month month to turn into FB also signaling short trend continuation on monthly TF.

With this hindsight in mind, I took 12 shorts since Sunday Open for this week. 5 stopped out at BE, 4 ended with -19 pips average loss and 3 ended in 16 pips average profit.

Current weekly scorecard = -14 pips

I plan to hold my short hindsight and probe continuously until price bounces off the current month's open closing price @ 1.3712 in hopes of catching some legs on tip of the wick for this week upon retrace.

Happy Trading!

Aud et al - I re-read the series of price interpretation posts from Graeme (the infamous charts with price interpretation on series of 17-20 candles) and gained a lot of further insight. Now I understand how/why Graeme does not use SL on M5 upon survival of first entry by having a rigid price interpretation 'scheme' indicating him when to close out most recent position, continue stack and when to move all his recent positions to BE. I tried some of his techniques today with greater success and enlightenment.

For those with engineering background like me, it is simply a mental/mechanical based position management 'system' with price action being the only 'just-in-time/leading' indicator!!! Also, not setting SL upon entr protects us from broker manipulation during low liquidity especially on M5. Downside imo...I find it a bit more scary and stressful but with practice, I plan to overcome this aspect of trading.

As Graeme repeatedly said, for those starting out with small balance, capital preservation(drawdown) is another KEY to finding emotional evolution/success with this method and limiting drawdowns starts with M5 for now until our account size slowly grows towards infinite yield. Increasing exposure with number of positions instead of position size is a fantastic idea. I wish I knew this in 2009 when I was bracketing 10 standard lots for a pitiful 10/20 pip profit !

EDIT: post on price interpretation starts here(for new readers)... http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1383
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,196
  • Feb 9, 2011 1:04am Feb 9, 2011 1:04am
Quoting aud
Couldn't agree more. Well said.

For me low risk means price is likely to move quickly away from the S/L. If it then comes back to you with some memo (didn't turn out to be low risk), then exit, be it with a small profit or a small loss (which will hopefully balance out). If it has legs then let it run, stacking as price allows.

For my mental health, there is a big difference between a drawdown against unrealised profits and a drawdown of realised profits.
I totally agree with what you said..
  • #4,197
  • Feb 9, 2011 1:09am Feb 9, 2011 1:09am
Quoting VEEFX
Glad we have the same bias

Posting this for those of us still participating in Graeme's short-only E/U exercise which I believe is still in the works.... my 2 cents below:

Using Inception, FB already on Weekly and Daily seems a good indication for month month to turn into FB also signaling short trend continuation on monthly TF....
Hi Vee,

Since you did not use SL for TF 5M, how do you define when to close a trade if its still in a loss?
  • #4,198
  • Feb 9, 2011 1:36am Feb 9, 2011 1:36am
Quoting Jcpfx
I've been studying this thread since it started and have never participated until now. Amazing stuff, thanks to Graeme and everyone for all the contributions.

Just wondering if anyone is taking any nibbles on USDJPY? It's been on a downtrend for a very long time and has recently consolidated on the weekly time frame near the all-time low, with some signs of strength on the Daily. Anyone taken any probes on this one?

Best,

JCPFX
I'd have probed on it if i had it open in my mt4 and i was not sleeping at that time..
here's what i see and what i just saw.
monthly http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...8-4e25ddf7262d
weekly http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...0-3645584a060a
4hr http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...3-a5c5b396d106
5min entry http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...5-b3677bba2eb9

p.s:I know its been in a down trend for a long time but this looked so "long" to me...and no intention to confuse anybody
  • #4,199
  • Edited 9:31am Feb 9, 2011 6:48am | Edited 9:31am
Quoting IkanMan
Hi Vee,

Since you did not use SL for TF 5M, how do you define when to close a trade if its still in a loss?
Welcome to the thread. I edited my post to include the link on price interpretation. Please read the next 10-20 posts/charts of Graeme. It depends on the setup but here's what I did.

For first position/scout:
- 'entry' candle closing about the previous red candle for short entries (or closing above the breakout level, top of FB's wick etc) is good indication to get out of dodge. Always have a mental SL level before I enter that is not more than 10-15 pips. If the opportunity forces me to take more than 15 pips SL, I skip the setup and move on. Please keep in mind that how you enter is not too important when compared to the 'area' you choose to enter on higher timeframe. If all dots are connected on upper levels, time to go aggressive!

- For subsequent stacks, simply focussing on when each candle closes and follow the same rule will make your entries tighter with the early indication when to stop or resume stacking.

p.s. Please re-read (x3) the pdf posted with only Graeme's posts. It makes reading so much easier without all the distraction caused by posts from other members. Hope this helps.

EDIT: From the Master himself from post #1591... "I thought perhaps I could leave some of these questions for the question asker to step back and think. Because if they turn off their computer and sat silently and thought about what they were really asking, the answer might emerge from all the related information I have supplied so far. I assumed that alot of readers had this type of sensible realistic reasoning power..... The 'show-er' leads the question-asker just enough for the question-asker to have an 'aha' moment on their own. That is effective learning.... "

EDIT2: Price just touched Last Month's closing price. Time to aggressively probe for short positions imo.
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,200
  • Feb 9, 2011 8:35am Feb 9, 2011 8:35am
Hello all,

I don't normally make contributions to forums, but I have been following this thread since August last year, and felt compelled to make an exception in order to recognise all of the effort that has gone into generating this thread. It is easily the most useful and practical information I have read on forex trading.

I'd like to say a huge thanks to Graeme (I hope you're still monitoring the thread from time to time). Without your advice and help in this thread, I'd still be stumbling along, losing more money than I gain, as I try different indicators/EA's, etc. I also wish you good health.

Also a big thanks to all of the other regular contributors to the thread. Your contributions have been of great help to me in learning to implement Graeme's approach.

I will continue to follow the thread, and hope to see more contributions from Graeme soon.

Wishing you all profitable trading,

Alan
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