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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #271,381
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:36am Feb 9, 2011 3:36am
bought cos of trendline break, retraced to the consolidation area, so took a long. placed stop below swing low and pray lol . yeah thats what i did, but its -7 pips now though
  • #271,382
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:36am Feb 9, 2011 3:36am
Quoting spot
As for my knowledge, interest rates rise when nation wants to calm down investments made to that country, to balance supply/demand. So, interest rates are risen when countrys economy is doing good in order to control growth of economy and value of their currency. ofcourse, this tends to act excatly the opposite because of carrytraders and couple other factors.
think you're right if this happens worldwide.
GB's inflation way too high and at the same point they are in deep sh*t atm
Think of it another way:
1. Swissies strong currency? High interest rate? y/n
2. Simbabwe strong currency? High interest rate? n/y
Don't know if Simbabwe is currently a good example but you get the picture....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #271,383
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:37am Feb 9, 2011 3:37am
Quoting mcornbill
Indeed, and a long spike to catch the news traders out.....
yes

haha like it.


Ph.
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #271,384
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:38am Feb 9, 2011 3:38am
Well, still holding on my short position at 1.6099. Btw, heads up for aussie, i c fairly interesting movement and might be forming a potential long positions soon enough.
  • #271,385
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:38am Feb 9, 2011 3:38am
Quoting USD-Bear
think you're right if this happens worldwide.
GB's inflation way too high and at the same point they are in deep sh*t atm
Think of it another way:
1. Swissies strong currency? High interest rate? y/n
2. Simbabwe strong currency? High interest rate? n/y
Don't know if Simbabwe is currently a good example but you get the picture....
so you expect a hike?
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #271,386
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:44am Feb 9, 2011 3:44am
Not for me. Economy poor - although non-disclosed inflation biting everyone - housing market in poor shape, etcetera. I think VAT increase and cuts to public expenditure will be allowed to run their course this quarter in order to see what impact this has.

Nobody cares if Joe loses his job, but if nobody can afford to pay the mortgage, the strain on state assistance may not be in big money's best interest at the moment.

EU - rumour of further money being pumped into Ireland having an interesting effect, perhaps. Cable being pulled up?
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #271,387
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:44am Feb 9, 2011 3:44am
my view for the GBP/USD daily....

1.600 is a good point to buy (hidden bullish div, and low of bullish channel) , with 1.628 for objectif and stop on 1.5950...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp-usd daily.jpg Size: 135 KB
  • #271,388
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:44am Feb 9, 2011 3:44am
Quoting PhAnTi'
so you expect a hike?
No, they want to (inflation wise) but can't (economic wise) so they shouldn't, but you never know in politics
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #271,389
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:45am Feb 9, 2011 3:45am
i can see a flag in daily TF that leads market up,who knows maybe the news change our analysis.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #271,390
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:49am Feb 9, 2011 3:49am
Quoting USD-Bear
No, they want to (inflation wise) but can't (economic wise) so they shouldn't, but you never know in politics
ok,thanks for the reply buddy.
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #271,391
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:51am Feb 9, 2011 3:51am
Quoting USD-Bear
think you're right if this happens worldwide.
GB's inflation way too high and at the same point they are in deep sh*t atm
Think of it another way:
1. Swissies strong currency? High interest rate? y/n
2. Simbabwe strong currency? High interest rate? n/y
Don't know if Simbabwe is currently a good example but you get the picture....
Ah yes, it's a bit more complex thing that would need a meny pages to get a climb, but in general as when economy is growing -> consumers have more buying power -> consuming more -> more goods and services on market -> inflation accelerating -> and so forth. this does not apply on "Oh shit" scenarios (great depression on germany in 20's-30's as for example) and in nations trying to participate western style economy but have not yet adapted all of it's twists.
  • #271,392
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:52am Feb 9, 2011 3:52am
deep pullbacks today on M15

Attached Image
  • #271,393
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:57am Feb 9, 2011 3:57am
Quoting USD-Bear
Yes not easy seeing something in USDX.
My pivotable point (longer term) sits @ 80, trying to see a H&S here with it's neck @ 78.44 but atm PA doesn't look like it wants to complete it.
Typical case for me of watching and doing nothing

sorry forgot chart:
Attachment

The thing that caught my eye on this chart, was the much larger inverse H&S pattern that seems to be forming with the neckline on your 78.00 line...


Ahh patterns. They are everywhere.
No way I'll wreck this... It's a beer truck!
  • #271,394
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:02am Feb 9, 2011 4:02am
Quoting PhAnTi'
yes

haha like it.


Ph.
Only 5 pips so far for the day...20 more needed to close the day.. wish me luck yeah..
  • #271,395
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:06am Feb 9, 2011 4:06am
Quoting Bruce Flea
The thing that caught my eye on this chart, was the much larger inverse H&S pattern that seems to be forming with the neckline on your 78.00 line...


Ahh patterns. They are everywhere.
think we see the same, inversed head at 77, but neckline at 78.44
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #271,396
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:07am Feb 9, 2011 4:07am
Quoting veer2010
Only 5 pips so far for the day...20 more needed to close the day.. wish me luck yeah..
just started
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #271,397
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:07am Feb 9, 2011 4:07am
Hey guys, I have always like this forum. I joined a while back, but due to wanting to focus on my trading, I stopped going on forums for about 18 months, as I found my productivity went down.

I have some work on how to play the interest rate decision tomorrow. I trade using macro fundamentals, and also use a lot of technical work for entry and timing.

Here is my take on how to play the BoE rate decision...http://triggerpointeconomics.com/201...rate-decision/

Would be interested in some thoughts.

My style is to find as many non-correlated reasons for a trade as possible...below are a list of the factors I look at. When I say non-correlated I mean not using an RSI and a Stochastics, as they both are telling you about breadth...as an example.

1. Inter-market analysis.

2. macro themes fundamentals.

3. sentiment and expectations.

4. Volume and COT Data from futures market. I have developed a couple of indicators with volume.

5. Trends

6. Support and Resistance.

The attached chart is of the B6 Sterling Futures. My volume indicator is giving a sell signal. The price action of the candles mean I m allowing the chance of a spike above the resistance line, although this is not my preferred scenario. However, any moves above this level should be faded, as I believe a return to risk aversion is coming in other markets, which will not be good for sterling.

http://www.sierrachart.com/userimage...7245758918.png
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #271,398
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:12am Feb 9, 2011 4:12am
I have a real big bias on short and think it could happen soon I think the Dow is in line for a big correction and could drop very soon which in turn will make GBP?USD drop a large amount before eventually continuing with the trend.
What does anyone else think I have attached the volatility charts at which the dow is at a yearly low
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 12newchart.jpg Size: 107 KB
  • #271,399
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:13am Feb 9, 2011 4:13am
Quoting PhAnTi'
just started
I didn't trade since morning as there was not enough volatality.. just now traded after the uk news to pocket 5 green pips...

So howz your day going so far?
  • #271,400
  • Feb 9, 2011 4:17am Feb 9, 2011 4:17am
Quoting veer2010
I didn't trade since morning as there was not enough volatality.. just now traded after the uk news to pocket 5 green pips...

So howz your day going so far?
hmm got eurusd,gbpusd,gbpchf and gbpjpy shorts, swing trades ( pound pairs targeting for around 200-300 pips.)

dont know how to rate eu----fucking range movements, hate them

lets c...

anyway i will be offline in about 1 hour for rest of the day.

keep care,
take patience.

Phanti
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
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