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Pitchfork Goldmine!

  • #1,301
  • Feb 8, 2011 8:03pm Feb 8, 2011 8:03pm
Quoting zxozzi
I suppose the difference in spike depends on whether you use the bid or asking price to create your graph.
Hi Zxozzi,

Thanks for sharing. I believe we both used the Bid. You will be amazed the variations you can get on a chart from different brokers, with different server times etc. Some traders like using brokers on GMT, others use EST. Brokers pay for data feeds, so I guess they pick the ticks they want, that in their minds will give the best representation of price action. Also, depending on when their new day begins, can affect how the candles are displayed on a chart.

Take care,

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,302
  • Feb 9, 2011 12:39am Feb 9, 2011 12:39am
Here is another example of two-fork trading (first chart):
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU1.GIF Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU2.GIF Size: 23 KB
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #1,303
  • Edited 1:25am Feb 9, 2011 12:41am | Edited 1:25am
Quoting kapital
Here is another example of two-fork trading (first chart):
Yes. It is good when those work well...when price shows respect for both forks. Nice trading approach. I guess I should add that I would tend to use actual swings. These forks show good frequency.

Take care,

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,304
  • Feb 9, 2011 6:27am Feb 9, 2011 6:27am
Hello Traders,

The bears have been trying to knock this one (EU) down for about four hours only to wake up some bulls who pushed the price back up...though not all the way. The war is on.

Bernanke to testify later this morning. Alot could change.

Take care,

FX4Newbies
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd 2-9-11.jpg Size: 110 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,305
  • Feb 9, 2011 7:20am Feb 9, 2011 7:20am
When a regular or modified schiff just won't do...

One way is to draw a fork with an alternative point of origin (APO) by selecting your B and C pivots and then taking the handle of the fork and adjusting it so that the upper or lower parallel intersects a significant high or low.

In the chart below, I would usually keep the handle aligned on the vertical of the A pivot but I had to take it to the outside due to sizing issues with the charting software. Still, the results are the same.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU.GIF Size: 35 KB
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #1,306
  • Edited 7:54am Feb 9, 2011 7:29am | Edited 7:54am
Quoting kapital
When a regular or modified schiff just won't do...

One way is to draw a fork with an alternative point of origin (APO) by selecting your B and C pivots and then taking the handle of the fork and adjusting it so that the upper or lower parallel intersects a significant high or low.

In the chart below, I would usually keep the handle aligned on the vertical of the A pivot but I had to take it to the outside due to sizing issues with the charting software. Still, the results are the same.
Hello Kapital,

I understand your approach there. As long as the B-C swing is being accounted for (per Andrews), the anchor pivot, Pivot 1, can be relocated as necessary. I am sure there are a few approaches on how this can be done. Yours seems to give you good results. Some may want to call it fork-fitting, but I think if you keep the line of force in tact (the swing from Pivot 2 to 3), then per Andrews, Pivot 1 can be adjusted when necessary. Still including the use of alternating "pivots" (H-L-H for example) as much as possible, even with this approach will be a plus.

Congrats!

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,307
  • Feb 9, 2011 8:42am Feb 9, 2011 8:42am
...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.GIF Size: 29 KB
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #1,308
  • Feb 9, 2011 9:37am Feb 9, 2011 9:37am
Quoting kapital
...
Looks to me like our charts show the same turn. I purposely choose to use the Andrews' methods because of its scientific basis, the other rules that apply as well as the understanding of the built-in statistics of the fork that Andrews back-tested. Don't know what your statistical probabilities are for the forks you draw/method you use. Maybe it is something that has gelled with you. These considerations become very important when dealing with Money Management on a broader scale.

As long as the Andrews' forks work, I'll go there first .

Take care,

FX4Newbies
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd 2-9-11-2.jpg Size: 115 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,309
  • Feb 10, 2011 5:45am Feb 10, 2011 5:45am
...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ec.GIF Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EC2.GIF Size: 41 KB
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #1,310
  • Edited 6:06am Feb 10, 2011 5:55am | Edited 6:06am
A Tale of Two Forks

(The upward trendlines represent the lower parallel of each forks modified schiff.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU1.GIF Size: 22 KB
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #1,311
  • Feb 10, 2011 6:08am Feb 10, 2011 6:08am
A tad bit more flavor to the mix...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU2.GIF Size: 26 KB
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #1,312
  • Feb 10, 2011 6:18am Feb 10, 2011 6:18am
EU has been falling. Having to break through an area of support to go farther...if that's that plan.

FX4Newbies
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd 2-10-11.jpg Size: 119 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,313
  • Feb 10, 2011 6:28am Feb 10, 2011 6:28am
Quoting kapital
A tad bit more flavor to the mix...
I see. Question on the white-looking internal fork. The line of force from Pivot 2 to Pivot 3 is not accounted for the way you drew it. Is this one a fork-fitting venture? Still trying to find your rhyme/reason for how/why you are doing what you do...unless you are doing some resultant vector studies on the side .

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,314
  • Edited 7:16am Feb 10, 2011 6:53am | Edited 7:16am
Hello again Kapital,

In my opinion there is seldom the need to "compromise" the fork and the laws of Physics involved by not accounting for the line of force. Took your same EU and went to M15...found good frequency. Can always be moved back to H1 if that is your preferred time-frame. Please explain why you choose to draw these "flavourful" forks as often as you do?

FX4Newbies
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd 2-10-11-m15.jpg Size: 90 KB
Attached Image
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,315
  • Feb 10, 2011 7:13am Feb 10, 2011 7:13am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Hello again Kapital,

In my opinion there is seldom the need to "compromise" the fork and the laws of Physics involved by not accounting for the line for force. Took your same EU and went to M15...found good frequency. Can always be moved back to H1 if that is your preferred time-frame. Please explain why you choose to draw these "flavourful" forks as often as you do?

FX4Newbies
Hopefully this chart will help. I look for this type of setup whenever there is a spike in a candle (or a price action spike created by a series of candles) with lower highs or higher lows on the sides.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FORK EXPLANATION.GIF Size: 26 KB
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #1,316
  • Feb 10, 2011 7:22am Feb 10, 2011 7:22am
Quoting kapital
Hopefully this chart will help. I look for this type of setup whenever there is a spike in a candle (or a price action spike created by a series of candles) with lower highs or higher lows on the sides.
Okay. So you use the "width" of the consolidation area and intermediary pivots of swings within the main swing (in this example at least). Have used the "width" before, but try to give consideration to the high pivot involved..if there is one. Sometimes, those are better left out...like the "one day wonders" we talked about earlier.

Thanks for clarifying. Gave a nice fork by the way.

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,317
  • Feb 10, 2011 7:33am Feb 10, 2011 7:33am
I draw these types of forks because I see there are setups using median lines which are useful, but aren't drawn in the traditional way.

For instance, I will use a low-low-high or a high-high-low as my pivot construction as long as I have a valid reason to select the pivot. If the resulting lines prove themselves as being valid, then the principles behind median lines still apply.

I don't need statistics or a case study to back up what I see on a chart at any given time.
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #1,318
  • Edited 7:51am Feb 10, 2011 7:37am | Edited 7:51am
Quoting kapital
I draw these types of forks because I see there are setups using median lines which are useful, but aren't drawn in the traditional way.

For instance, I will use a low-low-high or a high-high-low as my pivot construction as long as I have a valid reason to select the pivot. If the resulting lines are valid, then the principles behind them are the same.

I don't need statistics or a case study to back up what I see on a chart at any given time.
Appreciate that clarity. So your valid reason is your case study...on a chart by chart basis. Then your eye is trained to see these configurations that warrant your particular construction. There is a saying..."Whatever works is good martial arts". Chi-Ching I guess. I generally can find a fork using the "traditional" methods of Andrews. If I need a special application, then I have a consistent method that can find me a fork every time...good martial arts again I guess .

Thanks again,

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,319
  • Feb 10, 2011 7:50am Feb 10, 2011 7:50am
An example of a price action spike on the Daily EUR/CAD:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ec.GIF Size: 35 KB
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #1,320
  • Feb 10, 2011 7:57am Feb 10, 2011 7:57am
Quoting kapital
An example of a price action spike on the Daily EUR/CAD:
So it appears that the spike is nullified (action+reaction=zero), then you proceed from that level. Maybe the effect of the spike is "absorbed" into the support area, giving you an area of consolidation to go off of the width. That is alot of swing to ignore, but if it works for you...

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
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