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  • Post #4,161
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  • Feb 1, 2011 7:16am Feb 1, 2011 7:16am
  •  Muntu
  • | Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Member | 448 Posts
Quoting hubbahubba
Disliked
Otherwise known as pyramiding or averaging up. This is how I usually stack. There are a few different ways to do it. Here is one way.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...id-trading.asp
Ignored
Great article, nothing to add.
Thanks Hubba
Patience is magic
 
 
  • Post #4,162
  • Quote
  • Edited at 11:58am Feb 1, 2011 10:12am | Edited at 11:58am
  •  ezcurrency
  • Joined Feb 2006 | Status: Experienced Trader 19+ yrs | 545 Posts
Quoting nomask
Disliked
One week ago thats what i posted
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...4-5e7cbe4d4b87

and this is what happening now
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...3-6f3a6ae68e4a

So current 4 hr candle is very important to me because of its location..Let's see how it plays out..
update: pinbar turned out a bullish bar made a close above the support..nothing good for shorts for now..
Ignored
I just shorted 2 positions (1.3755, 1.3746) in EU, SL at b/e on first one. With ISM data out that should help the $ ... Also 1.375 major resis as Nomask said. Double top can be forming here ...

EZ

Edit: SL hit on both, small loss overall. 1.375 is taken out ... with strong ISM data, USD still fell across the board. Best to buy EURUSD on dips ...
 
 
  • Post #4,163
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  • Feb 1, 2011 12:45pm Feb 1, 2011 12:45pm
  •  ardi55
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Pipday5 | 28 Posts
I just shorted a position on EU @ 1.3810 and got taken out at 1.3835.

Something that I have to practice on is being patient and waiting for confirmation. My only problem here is, I feel when I wait for confirmation I already missed the boat. But as Graeme says. "your never late, always early".

How is everyone else doing on their progress? I think if Graeme was here he'd be telling us all that we should be getting at least a couple of buy positions on EU considering how strongly its trending. You never know how long this trend will last. I'm predicting another week but I could be completely wrong, as I have been in the past.

Ardi
 
 
  • Post #4,164
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  • Feb 1, 2011 12:48pm Feb 1, 2011 12:48pm
  •  simpleguy
  • Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Member | 517 Posts
I see a lot of people are shorting the EU, doesn't price action show that it's in an upward trend?
A woman drove me to drink, and I forgot to thank her
 
 
  • Post #4,165
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  • Feb 1, 2011 1:11pm Feb 1, 2011 1:11pm
  •  ardi55
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Pipday5 | 28 Posts
Quoting simpleguy
Disliked
I see a lot of people are shorting the EU, doesn't price action show that it's in an upward trend?
Ignored
You are absolutely right. Over the past few weeks of trading and holding statistics I have realized that I'm somewhat the same as Marion as in I have an extremely hard time going long on pairs, my brain just doesn't want to work with me that way.

It is something I have to work on and learn to see the pair going both ways because a major benefit of Graeme's method over others is how he is ready for which ever way the pair is going.

Ardi
 
 
  • Post #4,166
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  • Feb 1, 2011 1:44pm Feb 1, 2011 1:44pm
  •  nomask
  • Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Member | 962 Posts
Quoting simpleguy
Disliked
I see a lot of people are shorting the EU, doesn't price action show that it's in an upward trend?
Ignored
Hi simple
Thats being discussed here before just like any other thread in ff as you already know..
Graeme trades (so do i) both ways as long as there is a good opportunity but he also suggest whoever new to trade Graeme's method ,trading only towards main trend (monthly,weekly or whatever your largest t.f)
I have two longs on eu but when I opened my first buy position 2 weeks ago,things seemed very short but there was a low risk setup with big reward and now its about 600+ up.
just like my first long,today I analysed this pair and I saw a good opportunity for shorts too but it did not give me any chance to short nor to add some more buys..
and to Ardi:you're right about patience, its very important...but don't confuse yourself with being ready for both ways..Because that doesn't mean you catch every big move just by considering both directions..There are sometimes it just makes things confusing but also some other times you get to catch the move before it takes off..
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...d-cb168f4ef106
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...8-19599a227c35
 
 
  • Post #4,167
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  • Feb 1, 2011 2:08pm Feb 1, 2011 2:08pm
  •  VEEFX
  • Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Adios! | 3,377 Posts
Quoting nomask
Disliked
Hi simple
Thats being discussed here before just like any other thread in ff as you already know..
Graeme trades (so do i) both ways as long as there is a good opportunity but he also suggest whoever new to trade Graeme's method ,trading only towards main trend (monthly,weekly or whatever your largest t.f)
I have two longs on eu but when I opened my first buy position 2 weeks ago,things seemed very short but there was a low risk setup with big reward and now its about 600+ up.
just like my first long,today I analysed this pair and I saw a good...
Ignored
For those who are questioning why not to go long on EU, Graeme mentioned here http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4031

"Having said that, there is a good chance that the up movement will continue on which means everyone including myself that are participating in this exercise to sit it out since we are only taking one direction for this exercise. We need to patiently wait until clear reasons (as per our price action interpretation) to change our monthly hindsight to UP. Also another reason why I trade both directions since one direction could have me sit out for a prolonged periods of time again."

This exercise (for those of us following) requires us to trade only one direction i.e. down and Monthly Hindsight is still down from what I can tell. Until the change happens on the monthly, I am staying on the sidelines with only one or two probes 'per week' at strategic locations. just my 2 pips....
Staying in my lane...
 
 
  • Post #4,168
  • Quote
  • Feb 1, 2011 2:56pm Feb 1, 2011 2:56pm
  •  geoffrod
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 311 Posts
Quoting VEEFX
Disliked
For those who are questioning why not to go long on EU, Graeme mentioned here http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4031

[color=purple]"Having said that, there is a good chance that the up movement will continue on which means everyone including myself that are participating in this exercise to sit it out since we are only taking one direction for this exercise. We need to patiently wait until clear reasons (as per our price action interpretation) to change our monthly hindsight to UP. Also another reason...
Ignored

hey vee sounds like you are following the plan well.
i have to say it is difficult at the moment to sit on the side lines, the up move has been going since early january, coming up to "1000"pip move, hence the attractiveness of trading both directions.

i tried another probe short yesterday, but the market, she is not ready to accomodate me as yet, i can wait.

cheers
geoff
 
 
  • Post #4,169
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  • Feb 1, 2011 3:03pm Feb 1, 2011 3:03pm
  •  simpleguy
  • Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Member | 517 Posts
Quoting nomask
Disliked
Hi simple
Thats being discussed here before just like any other thread in ff as you already know..
Graeme trades (so do i) both ways as long as there is a good opportunity but he also suggest whoever new to trade Graeme's method ,trading only towards main trend (monthly,weekly or whatever your largest t.f)
I have two longs on eu but when I opened my first buy position 2 weeks ago,things seemed very short but there was a low risk setup with big reward and now its about 600+ up.
just like my first long,today I analysed this pair and I saw a good...
Ignored
Hey nomask,

I keep forgetting people can open longs and shorts. I'm not able to do that, I have to either go long or short. I'm flat right now and using the daily open my determination of going long or short.
A woman drove me to drink, and I forgot to thank her
 
 
  • Post #4,170
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  • Feb 1, 2011 3:26pm Feb 1, 2011 3:26pm
  •  nomask
  • Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Member | 962 Posts
Quoting simpleguy
Disliked
Hey nomask,

I keep forgetting people can open longs and shorts. I'm not able to do that, I have to either go long or short. I'm flat right now and using the daily open my determination of going long or short.
Ignored
well I'm not saying its so easy for me though..
I love trading through per my hindsight but as Graeme mentioned in the context that Vee quoted "Also another reason why I trade both directions since one direction could have me sit out for a prolonged periods of time again" so I agree with Graeme that could be really boring for me too
and if you look at the monthly chart you can see there is a 2000 pip move up already established and the direction is still up...
My hindsight was down because of the big down candle of november but since then price did not play through that engulfing candle instead made an inside bar, broke that up with retest of support and this month just started playing above the monthly open...
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...d-771b5bbcff2b
I'm okay with my hindsights as long as they treat me well
 
 
  • Post #4,171
  • Quote
  • Feb 1, 2011 5:01pm Feb 1, 2011 5:01pm
  •  VEEFX
  • Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Adios! | 3,377 Posts
Quoting geoffrod
Disliked
hey vee sounds like you are following the plan well.
i have to say it is difficult at the moment to sit on the side lines, the up move has been going since early january, coming up to "1000"pip move, hence the attractiveness of trading both directions.

i tried another probe short yesterday, but the market, she is not ready to accomodate me as yet, i can wait.

cheers
geoff
Ignored
I am taking this opportunity to 'learn' how to be patient for long term success. I also avoid caffeine when looking at charts focussing on no more than 8-10 entries per week per pair to prevent drawdown of capital.

I would say this though...smaller realized losses also allows for quicker strategic placement of diversification resulting in risk+stress FREE trading post diversification. In addition to "Profiting from market doesn't need to involve higher risk" per Graeme, it is equally important (for me atleast) not to elevate my stress levels from trading activity. I have enough stress from my day job to worry about every candle color I have tried all the darn strategies to 1:2 RR. not anymore.

Personally, I am driven to close my first long standing 2000+ pips legs only when I can afford to take a loooong vacation entirely from profits (just looking for emotional drivers to hold on to my long term positions when I have them :-)
Staying in my lane...
 
 
  • Post #4,172
  • Quote
  • Edited at 8:02am Feb 2, 2011 4:56am | Edited at 8:02am
  •  Muntu
  • | Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Member | 448 Posts
Quoting ezcurrency
Disliked
I just shorted 2 positions (1.3755, 1.3746) in EU, SL at b/e on first one. With ISM data out that should help the $ ... Also 1.375 major resis as Nomask said. Double top can be forming here ...

EZ

Edit: SL hit on both, small loss overall. 1.375 is taken out ... with strong ISM data, USD still fell across the board. Best to buy EURUSD on dips ...
Ignored
I went long on ISM, at 1.3774. Out this morning at 1.3814, on trailed stop.
Awaiting Mr Trichet tomorrow afternoon.
Patience is magic
 
 
  • Post #4,173
  • Quote
  • Feb 2, 2011 11:30pm Feb 2, 2011 11:30pm
  •  kheaver
  • | Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Member | 23 Posts
There's an interesting read in this site from 7bit that talks about a similar method of trading, he calls it snowballs, he goes into the maths of linear growth of losses verses quadratic growth of profits.

He goes on to develop an ea, I don't know if that's of any use but the theory is interesting.
http://sites.google.com/site/prof7bit/snowball

and there's more about the ea here on ff
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=226059
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=239717

Kim
 
 
  • Post #4,174
  • Quote
  • Feb 3, 2011 11:50am Feb 3, 2011 11:50am
  •  FlyingLotus
  • | Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Member | 14 Posts
[quote=pipEASY;4316738]Good afternoon, all

Thank you for your inputs.

I have read all your posts since my last entry.

I can definitely notice the difference in tone compared to last weekend. No one is passing the cheer anymore and there is a whiff of negativity (most likely derived from frustration) in the air

Ofcourse it is disturbing to see your positions that were 200, 300+ pips erode away into nothing. The fact that such matter still disturbs a trader shows that they are still on the early levels of emotional hurdle.

A trader could have closed all his sell positions at the opening of the week to bank few hundred pips but watch the price move further down this week; you would feel the exact same feelings as now........


Hi all,
definitely a thread worth coming out of hiding for.

Thank you Mr. PipEasy for devoting your time, energy, patience, knowledge and positive spirit to those, like myself, that have been trying to find a way through the FX maze.


Kudos to those that have stayed with this thread through it's inception and have helped others keep the faith, whilst retaining their humility...and humour
...

Managed to catch the E/U break out this morning using some of the analysis taught here.



....my unrealised profit was up 166 pips ( the highest for me ever)


my micro 7 pence a pip
baby leg was worth around 10 pounds.

I honestly don't know if I could progam myself to cope with the weeks of multiple losses and break evens but I'm only half way through the thread so will continue on.....

Thanks Greame and all for the priceless education being taught here..



FlyLo
 
 
  • Post #4,175
  • Quote
  • Feb 4, 2011 5:48am Feb 4, 2011 5:48am
  •  Muntu
  • | Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Member | 448 Posts
I believe every system is to be tweaked to conform to one's personnality. This letting hundreds of pips return to the void where they came from will definitely not be my way to, as I would say bye bye to nights sleep.
300 pips, just times 10 is a comfortale salary salary. If I could be sure of even half this amount of pips per month, I would quit my day job and just trade that for 20 euro/pip.

My limit will be 50 to 100 pips, depending on volatility.

[quote=FlyingLotus;4369448]
Quoting pipEASY
Disliked
Good afternoon, all

Thank you for your inputs.

I have read all your posts since my last entry.

I can definitely notice the difference in tone compared to last weekend. No one is passing the cheer anymore and there is a whiff of negativity (most likely derived from frustration) in the air

Ofcourse it is disturbing to see your positions that were 200, 300+ pips erode away into nothing. The fact that such matter still disturbs a trader shows that they are still on the early levels of emotional hurdle.

A trader could...
Ignored
Patience is magic
 
 
  • Post #4,176
  • Quote
  • Feb 5, 2011 10:59am Feb 5, 2011 10:59am
  •  HornedGod
  • | Joined Jul 2004 | Status: Member | 44 Posts
I originally posted this on my blog but I thought it would be useful to post it here too.

One of the questions that came up a while ago was: is one session better than another for attempting to get legs growing? For example, is there a higher probability for a trade to survive a long time if opened during the Tokyo session versus the London session?

It's well known that the Sydney and Tokyo sessions are generally quieter and less volatile when compared to the London and New York sessions. London is the currency trading capital so it makes sense that activity will be better during the European time frame. It would be useful to know if there is a correlation between the trading activity of the various global trading locations to the chances of price moving and not coming back for a long time.

I haven't done any statistical analysis on this issue. My guess would be that there is a certain minimal correlation but that it shifts over time. Any sort of shift means that it makes little sense to adhere to whatever minimal correlation there might be and thus not very useful for making hard and fast trading rules. In my eyes, it would be better to just be able to know if there has been any sort of recent correlation, as that might impact how I trade today or later this week.

To that end, I put my programmer hat on and wrote a little chart indicator that I can use in my FXCM MarketScope charts (that are part of the FXCM Trading Station platform). The indicator does two things:

  1. Colour codes the candles on the chart to highlight what session the candle takes place in. By default, Syndey bars are coloured cyan. Tokyo bars are coloured green. London bars are red and New York bars are blue.
  2. It hides any candles that have had their high and low breached by any subsequent bar. This means if you had placed a trade on one of these bars, the trade would have been closed out at break even. The only bars which are visible are ones where you had a chance to enter a trade and have the trade survive to the present moment.


The results look something like this:

http://www.forexspirit.com/images/20...1_Sessions.png

It is worth noting that this indicator can be used on any timeframe. The colour coding is only going to mean anything if the timeframe is set to 2 hours or less, as the colour of the candle is based on the open time of the bar. Any timeframe higher than 2 hours will result in bars that cross sessions, which will only confuse things.

This gives an easy way to view where and when it would have been possible to enter trades that would still be alive right now. If the candle colours show the majority of visible bars are in the European session but you're only able to trade during the NY market hours, then you'll know that there wasn't much you could have done there, and that it might be better to wait for times when the NY market shows more momentum.

For anyone who would like to try it out, feel free to download the Sessions indicator and add it to your indicator list in Marketscope. If you're not familiar on how to do that, instructions can be found here.

 
 
  • Post #4,177
  • Quote
  • Feb 6, 2011 3:35am Feb 6, 2011 3:35am
  •  zoli
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: called zol actually | 440 Posts
Hi All,

I greet you and want to say thanks for your input. I have been reading the thread for a while and I just got to the end. I like what I have read here and I learned a lot. I have been learning to trade for 2 years now with no real success but more and more knowledge about myself. That is correct, for knowledge about onself seems to be a major importance when it comes to trading.
Greame is the first only person, who stated in a very intelligent way that he actually does not know where the market is going.

I find that helpful as I have read some other experienced members and unfortunately many of them seem to be full of personal pride and vanity.
That is not a critic from my part rather a reason why I find at times difficult to get what they are talking about as I do not seem to have that knowledge of the markets.

After quite a "tution fee" and a lot of practice I ended up calmer and more determined as I was before.

From my history and experience I must say that the only time I have ever made some money was the time I left a position open for long. That negated some of my losses and made me a humble profit.

Now, I am doing the same.

For all you fellow traders I would like to point out a simple way how you can consider the time required for learning to trade profitably.

I am a structural engineer with Msc which took me 6 years to achieve, including my work during studies and all other things. I can make a living and I have the chance with this educational background to make a relatively OK middle class living should I choose this as the profession of my life.

The tution fee costed me roughly 1500 USD a semester so 15000 USD all together. (I studied in Hungary, relatively cheap compared to USA and many other countries).

Trading is a business and a proffession. You can make an OK living and more, you can make a super living from it. Is that not valid the assume it worth similar time and energy investment as any University or even more? Say 5 years of countinious learning, paying tution fees (money on useless trading robot junks, losses, books, seminars, etc...) are crazy?

So if you think the above is worth to consider you have time. I am just over my second year. After my secon year in the uni I could barely do anything worthwile yet compare to what I am doing nowadays in the office. In fact, you need quite some years after graduation to become good. That puts it to an estimated 8-10 years with studies included until you become a competent engineer.
What about doctors? 10 years? Lawyers?

I trade almost only EURUSD as I am busy in my day job and have no time to focuss on more instruments at the moment. I had 2 positions in EURCAD at a very good place but I got stopped out unfortunately.

My plan is for the next week is a bearish movement. I will need to change my view for bullish as soon as it proves to be more correct. Last Friday could not move down like crazy. The previous 2 candles on the weekly are week for me, that is the main reason. Looking at the monthly though, I can also say that the previous 2 weeks were only a retracement of the performance of January. Time will tell and I will need to follow the market as learned from Greame. Thanks for that.

I have one long position at 3043 and 4 shorts between 3738 and 3696.

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Kind Regards zol
 
 
  • Post #4,178
  • Quote
  • Feb 6, 2011 9:33am Feb 6, 2011 9:33am
  •  nomask
  • Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Member | 962 Posts
Quoting zoli
Disliked
Hi All,

I greet you and want to say thanks for your input. I have been reading the thread for a while and I just got to the end. I like what I have read here and I learned a lot. I have been learning to trade for 2 years now with no real success but more and more knowledge about myself. That is correct, for knowledge about onself seems to be a major importance when it comes to trading.
Greame is the first only person, who stated in a very intelligent way that he actually does not know where the market is going.

I find that helpful as I...
Ignored
congrats..nice shorts you got there.each would be at least 1500 pip-worth if the direction for the next couple weeks is down..
but the question is "is it breaking down or turning back up?"
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...a-50d39a62dc0d
 
 
  • Post #4,179
  • Quote
  • Feb 6, 2011 10:40am Feb 6, 2011 10:40am
  •  zoli
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: called zol actually | 440 Posts
Quoting nomask
Disliked
congrats..nice shorts you got there.each would be at least 1500 pip-worth if the direction for the next couple weeks is down..
but the question is "is it breaking down or turning back up?"
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...a-50d39a62dc0d
Ignored
Hi,

thank you. That is the very reason I need to be ready to change direction and look for longs when it happens.
This is the real part for me in trading. Somehow you get your positions but when you exit and not exit to make your account grow? For example, I had more long positions but I exitted. Was it a right or wrong choice? I left one to go for thousands or die. Time can tell only. Am I good with these 4 shorts? I do not know but I need to participate to find out later whether I was right or wrong. A lot to learn but fortunately I have a lot of time. A whole life.

Good luck for next week
Kind Regards zol
 
 
  • Post #4,180
  • Quote
  • Edited at 12:07pm Feb 6, 2011 11:57am | Edited at 12:07pm
  •  VEEFX
  • Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Adios! | 3,377 Posts
Wondering how folks are doing in achieving their "1Thing" in regards to their entries. I think I have nailed most of the aspects of Graeme's teachings but find myself challenged with this one important aspect.

"You should know your entry method so well you can vouch it with your life"

I have reached the 400+ trade mark in my practice since November/December. Only a handful of PA based setups have proved to be promising so far. Could one of these be my "1 Thing" for entries? Does this mean I dump the ones that have not worked out for me? I wont know until I have another 1000+ entries to include in my 'statistical trade analysis'

EDIT: One more thing to add... ""You only need 1 or 2 entry methods but your participation in over 10+ pairs of currency. You will be very busy"". Of the few setups I mentioned above, trading across multiple pairs is lowering my success rate for some reason. Perhaps it is too early to come to any conclusion.

EDIT: Also worth mentioning that none of these trades were taken with the intention of "20 x3 take profit exercise". It dawned on me yesterday that had I taken these trades with 20x3 in mind since the beginning, about 60+% trades that resulted in BE would have hit the TP level which is both confusing and enlightening at the same time :-
Staying in my lane...
 
 
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