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Pitchfork Goldmine!

  • #1,241
  • Feb 3, 2011 12:54pm Feb 3, 2011 12:54pm
FX4,you are not alone

Last friday i sold the eur/gbp june contract with a gtd stop,for some reason i closed it for 33 pips on friday night,as you know it fell all week.

it gets worse, the gbp/usd is in a strong up trend,i saw a AB=CD for some reason i sold at D instead of buying,
so today i dug my alotment,i had just planted potatoes when the farmer turned up with a load of manure,i then spent 5 hours moving it and digging it in,my back aches
but im happy.

what im trying to say is you are a real trader as am i,most but not all will post trades done after the event boasting of pips made,these traders never make a losing trade.Why we make such silly mistakes is beyond me.I do know when i trade orders where i think price will go,instead of hiting the button for the market price i do better,ie it keeps me out of the market when i am wrong.

as you can see from my eur/gbp trade i cut my winners and run my losers, lol

Pike
  • #1,242
  • Edited 3:19pm Feb 3, 2011 1:34pm | Edited 3:19pm
Quoting pikeliver
FX4,you are not alone

Last friday i sold the eur/gbp june contract with a gtd stop,for some reason i closed it for 33 pips on friday night,as you know it fell all week.

it gets worse, the gbp/usd is in a strong up trend,i saw a AB=CD for some reason i sold at D...
Hi Pike,

There is a psychology behind it all. In my next article I want to address some of these issues. Can't recall a time when I have had to battle with myself and schedule like this...maybe in the very beginning of my trading days.

I am hopeful that traders are benefiting from these open and honest discussions as that is how we break free and go on to better trading...able to eliminate or minimize the negatives.

Thinking of your selling at D but buying instead...I remember one time I was trading...a real newbie at the time. I had two mini-lots on. Took a chance holding a trade through the news and the news came out not in my favour. I had Bloomberg in the background and oh, what a frenzy with the anchor people. That didn't help. I clicked buy instead of sell to close...twice. By the end of the saga, I had 6 minis going LOL. Everybody does stupid things now and then. The key is to get to the bottom of it, solve the problem and move on. If I didn't know how to fix it or deal with it I'd be stressed .

There is a movie I suggest that every trader take a look at and internalize as much as possible. It is called K-19; The Widowmaker starring Harrison Ford and Liam Neeson. This movie is not about trading at all, BUT, if a trader views it with the market and its dynamics in mind from the very beginning, they can come away with so much understanding about this business, it will be amazing!!!

I hope some of you will take me up on this, and, if you do, let me know how it impacted you. Be sure to listen attentively to everything being said, and by whom. Observe mannerisms as well. Imagine being taught to trade and having a movie-watching session...something I did for new traders some years ago.

Take care,

FX4

P.S. Enjoy your potatoes, muscle aches and all.

P.P.S. Just came to mind...manure is what makes things grow well. Working through these messy trades are the very things that will push us to the trading levels we are looking for . It's called Failing Forward .
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Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,243
  • Feb 3, 2011 1:46pm Feb 3, 2011 1:46pm
how about this,i had a new platform,a few years ago when the S&P was in a major down trend,not knowing any better i followed a tip and bought,i put on what i thought was £15 a point and when to bed.
In the morning when i woke up my stop was hit,not too bad i thought,unfortunely the new platform was priced in tenths,it was £150 a point.
Boy did i learn from that mistake.
  • #1,244
  • Edited 2:40pm Feb 3, 2011 1:53pm | Edited 2:40pm
Quoting pikeliver
how about this,i had a new platform,a few years ago when the S&P was in a major down trend,not knowing any better i followed a tip and bought,i put on what i thought was £15 a point and when to bed.
In the morning when i woke up my stop was hit,not too bad i thought,unfortunely the new platform was priced in tenths,it was £150 a point.
Boy did i learn from that mistake.
Yikes! That was painful. Just yesterday I did a trade on Nzd-Usd. Was late getting in, but I could see it falling. Didn't want to miss it so I sold. Of course, the bounce began. Held on and was down about 20 pips. Could see some hope with possible resistance about 8 pips away. That would mean being down about 28 pips. Already feeling bad about how the Performance Account was not performing, I decided to get out. Well it turned just about where I thought it would, and went south for about 100 pips. Forgot to mention the spread was about 6 pips, expected maybe 3...was not on the same platform as I had thought. Couldn't even scrape out anything from that trade.

So today, traded Aud-Usd...jumped in the trade with a sell, not really checking everything. Waited a little for the bounce before getting in. "Bounce was an upward move). Saw resistance...thought, I am holding this time...held on for 50 pips or so in the negative. Got out, sold off some a few pips later. That was a Remorse Trade as I had been stalking it and missed my opportune entry while dealing with some other things that came up. My timing has been way off when compared to what I am used to.

Every trade is a new and unique experience and we treat each one as such. It takes the pain of live trading to train the trader. Honestly.

Take care and thanks for sharing,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,245
  • Feb 3, 2011 5:47pm Feb 3, 2011 5:47pm
Quoting PeterE
I like Tim’s ongoing reminder to find a repeatable pattern and trade it to death....
Hi PeterE,

What Tim says is absolutely correct...find repeatable patterns and knock them dead. The set-ups I have. My challenge of late is to be able to block out trading time and to be focused, well-rested and alert when I do. I was given a suggestion by GreatYves to consider trading the Daily. Another trader made a similar suggestion. I am on East Coast time and it is hard on the body to have a full day and be up literally at the crack of dawn. You were looking at H4. I will try it and give it serious consideration as that now seems to be my biggest challenge. Will look at your setups as well.

Thanks for sharing,

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,246
  • Feb 3, 2011 5:57pm Feb 3, 2011 5:57pm
good luck, finding your own "style", is an important aspect,............not everyone is made to play gridiron, some are more suited to tennis

personally, after a conversation with Shane at MG, i am focusing solely on 240s at present, without cross-referencing tfs
  • #1,247
  • Feb 3, 2011 6:04pm Feb 3, 2011 6:04pm
Quoting PeterE
good luck, finding your own "style", is an important aspect,............not everyone is made to play gridiron, some are more suited to tennis

personally, after a conversation with Shane at MG, i am focusing solely on 240s at present, without cross-referencing tfs
Thanks. "My style" worked fine up until October/November 2010. Cross-referencing still works well. It is now a matter of timing, focus and being "in the zone" mentally, emotionally and physically. That has become the challenge.

Looking forward to finding a solution to this necessary and fairly recent adjustment.

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,248
  • Feb 3, 2011 6:27pm Feb 3, 2011 6:27pm
Quoting PeterE
good luck, finding your own "style", is an important aspect,............not everyone is made to play gridiron, some are more suited to tennis

personally, after a conversation with Shane at MG, i am focusing solely on 240s at present, without cross-referencing tfs
FX 4

This morning I was ready to sell the EUR but at news time the PA made me

chicken out. My entry should have been at the Red Line at the SR Line.

After news I took the GBP at the Red line at the SR Line and exited at the

Green Line.

50 pips is a far cry from 100 that I should have had on the EUR.

PeterE

Everybody does have their own style and set ups and I failed to take one

of mine.
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  • #1,249
  • Feb 3, 2011 6:31pm Feb 3, 2011 6:31pm
i know this, why do you state it?

Quoting Wave Trader
Everybody does have their own style and set ups and I failed to take one of mine.
  • #1,250
  • Feb 3, 2011 6:45pm Feb 3, 2011 6:45pm
Since January I have change my method somewhat. I just look at EUR and GBP.

My 2 monitors have 8 charts on them. Monitor 1 has EUR 240, 60, 20 and 5.
Monitor 2 has GBP 240, 60, 20 and 5.

I do simultanously cross-referrence these time frames.

My pip count is way up just trading these 2 pairs.

This change has given me alot more calmness but I do still chicken out
sometimes.

Working on it. I continually have remind myself that it is a probality
game and a trade not taken at the set up is a lost opportunity.

Everybody learns at there own speed.

Good Luck and Happy Hunting.
  • #1,251
  • Edited Feb 4, 2011 2:09am Feb 3, 2011 6:50pm | Edited Feb 4, 2011 2:09am
Quoting Wave Trader
FX 4

This morning I was ready to sell the EUR but at news time the PA made me

chicken out. My entry should have been at the Red Line at the SR Line.

After news I took the GBP at the Red line at the SR Line and exited at the

Green Line.

50 pips is a far cry from 100 that I should have had on the EUR.

PeterE

Everybody does have their own style and set ups and I failed to take one

of mine.
Hi WaveTrader,

It is good that you were able to get into a trade that you felt comfortable about. Sometimes I tell traders: Trading is like cricket. Part of being a good batsman is not hitting every ball, only the ones you think are the best ones for you to hit. Sometimes what is needed is to protect your wicket and nothing more. Some of the balls being delivered are to trick you so that you will be setting yourself up for an out. You may not have gotten 100 pips, but you hit the ball you thought was the better one. Good job! That way you maintain confidence in yourself as a trader, and that will keep you in the game longer than the extra 50 pips. It is part of keeping your Emotional Equity high.

Keep up the good work!

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,252
  • Edited Feb 4, 2011 7:07am Feb 3, 2011 6:58pm | Edited Feb 4, 2011 7:07am
Quoting Wave Trader
Since January I have change my method somewhat. I just look at EUR and GBP.

My 2 monitors have 8 charts on them. Monitor 1 has EUR 240, 60, 20 and 5.
Monitor 2 has GBP 240, 60, 20 and 5.

I do simultanously cross-referrence these time frames.

My pip count is way up just trading these 2 pairs.

This change has given me alot more calmness but I do still chicken out
sometimes.

Working on it. I continually have remind myself that it is a probality
game and a trade not taken at the set up is a lost opportunity.

Everybody learns at there own...
Hi again Wave Trader,

I watch the H4, H1 and M15 on a regular basis as you do. When I see a pair whose set-up looks promising, that pair becomes my focus until the entry becomes clear...unless something comes up, which has become the norm lately. I actually include the M5 and M1 if needed once in the trade. Cross-referencing time-frames works well for me.

I like the idea of more calmness...chickening out does happen sometimes, even with what we would call an "ideal" set-up and entry. We have to remind ourselves it is a probability game. If the set-up and entry are there just take it. Isn't it funny how we argue with ourselves about taking the "good" trades, and jump into some mess, then hang around and hope? That is some psychology for sure LOL.

Thanks again for sharing,

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,253
  • Feb 4, 2011 2:31am Feb 4, 2011 2:31am
TARGET: Upper Parallel
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"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #1,254
  • Feb 4, 2011 2:46am Feb 4, 2011 2:46am
REGULAR SCHIFF (Purple)
MODIFIED SCHIFF (Yellow)

TARGET (upward): Upper Parallel of Regular Schiff or Median Line of Modified Schiff

TARGET (downward): Lower Parallel of Regular Schiff
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"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #1,255
  • Feb 4, 2011 3:11am Feb 4, 2011 3:11am
In case price falls out of the original fork, I'll look towards this regular schiff to offer support (in addition to the lower warning line of the original fork) with the target being the schiff's upper parallel (a less conservative target would be its upper warning line).
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"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #1,256
  • Feb 4, 2011 4:43am Feb 4, 2011 4:43am
My focus is now turning to a second setup since the first one doesn't look too promising.

Price is slowly taking out areas of potential support in these setups. The last line of defense (for a move up) on the secondary setup is the low from yesterday and the lower warning line of the green fork.
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"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #1,257
  • Edited 8:18am Feb 4, 2011 6:47am | Edited 8:18am
Hello Traders,

Below is the usual Eur-Usd chart (first one) followed by the Nzd-Usd (in response to Kapital's postings).

EU did fall and made the ML target of red fork. Now what? It is hanging at an internal Fib line waiting for news. It is a toss up, but with the force with which it blew through the ML it could end up lower...just don't know the scenic route because of news and NFP at that.

The Nzd-Usd chart is unchanged from the Weekly Wrap-Ups I posted over the weekend (with the exception of the blue arrow I added to mark whereabouts I left it on Saturday). Think price is hanging as well.

Hang with it until it starts speaking volumes.

Thanks so much Kapital for these alternate views.

FX4Newbies

P.S. Don't forget to watch the movie....through the eyes of the market and a trader. Volumes to learn. Think it is based on a true story.
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Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,258
  • Edited 8:13am Feb 4, 2011 7:56am | Edited 8:13am
Quoting FX4Newbies

Now what? It is hanging at an internal Fib line waiting for news. It is a toss up, but with the force with which it blew through the ML it could end up lower...just don't know the scenic route because of news and NFP at that.
Well...

Price did take the scenic route but ended lower. Two EU charts here...the continuation of the one posted earlier today and also the one from the blog on Saturday.

Take care. Hope you were not washed and rinsed.

FX4Newbies
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Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,259
  • Edited 11:54am Feb 4, 2011 8:28am | Edited 11:54am
Quoting kapital
My focus is now turning to a second setup since the first one doesn't look too promising.

Price is slowly taking out areas of potential support in these setups. The last line of defense (for a move up) on the secondary setup is the low from yesterday and the lower warning line of the green fork.
Hey Kapital,

Seems like price liked the WL on the second chart better. Thanks for sharing your "trading eye" with us.

I hope Newbies (and other traders) understand, it's not just a matter of drawing some lines, but it is the mind behind them...the "why" behind the lines being drawn that they should be after. The market is too dynamic...it requires a thinking and processing mind, so don't be sucked into trying to just copy what you see or "memorize"...it will drive you nuts! What you should be after, in my mind, is to understand the principles involved in and the behaviour of Price Action to then know which fork or any other tool is to be applied.

All the best,

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,260
  • Edited 2:43pm Feb 4, 2011 11:59am | Edited 2:43pm
Kapital,

This phrase just caught my eye from your previous post...

My focus is now turning to a second setup since the first one doesn't look too promising.

I read those words a few times, and it was just now that they got my attention. A trader can only see as is needed if he/she is focused. Those few words communicate clearly to me that you are very deliberate and decisive in your approach. You know where to start and stop. That means your thinking is clear and definite and you understand your method of analysis well.

Working to get back there...where focus is unbroken and really in place. It is in that place that the market can talk to you...and you will hear. Gotta stay in the zone...with the flow of the market. Being up and down etc. doesn't help.

Enjoy the weekend.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
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