Sonic R. System

UJ:

Yes, anything can happen. Still, the applied FR study shows PA favoring the 50%-79% area.....possible accumulation? The FR 262% area aligns with RgH.....possible first target? And will we see a last minute whipsaw that takes price low for final accumulation before a drive up?

So, what can we do but wait and see what happens, one way or the other.

TP hit...+50 pips.

Done today.

Well done, nando_rich!

BTW, if you want to be able to draw the FR study line vertically, and still have the values at screen right, just open the study window and go to the Parameters tab and check the Ray box.

Thanks

GU:

A SonicR short setup. The only exception to the instructions is that PA is not yet below the Trend. Still, this could break down today since there has been a lot of trading at the highs.....consolidating for a move. If it does not break down today, then maybe it ranges until tomorrow when there are high impact releases both for GBP and USD. Either one of those could be the trigger.

UJ:

The ballots have been counted.....

UChf:

This should yield a good run, maybe for days. The PPMs did not spend their money driving the price back down for nothing!

Edit (40 minutes later): Here it goes! See added 2nd chart. The London session is closed. It is a good time (least expensive) for the US PPMs to pump it to lock in profits. Now, if any other PPMs want to put the price down low again to acquire short positions, they are going to have to pay a lot to do so! The lower whole number, 0.9400, might now become the defacto support.

EU:

It is getting late in the best hours, but there is a re-entry opportunity shaping up as price comes back to previous low. The question is, will it use that low as a range bottom until tomorrow, or will it break down thru it?

The WAVEs are of a very nice pattern. And volume remained at highs during the last leg up.....short sellers still accumulating positions.

BTW, Price area is 1500 pips higher than it was last summer when "talking heads" said it shouldn't rise much above the then 1.2250 area it was in. "Oh, maybe to 1.2400....possibly 1.2450. That should be it." What a snow job the PPMs spoke persons do on the public! The price rose over 2,000 pips more!

UCad:

Not the best looking WAVE, and best hours are over. But on the large leg down volume increased. PA is up against whole number 0.9900 resistance now. It might hold until tomorrow. Or, it might not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by traderathome http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Market Outlook....Update:

Big Money is clearly betting on "dollar strength". It is THE reason pairs have been price manipulated to "dollar weakness" extremes this first session of the new week. Just look at EU, the most widely traded pair. Look at the volume!

Leading up to, and in the very early part of the London session, yes, Big Money went long. But that was because they knew they were going to pump....pump.....pump, and pump some more! Getting some initial long positions simply made them money on the planned pump,....or at least covered...


Ever since PA broke down thru the lower channel line and failed on two additional retests of it, I believe the PPMs began planning their selloff strategy. They hiked up the price late in December to close longs and began building long range short positions. And they began the New Year with massive selling (gray rectangle in 1st chart).

I believe spring is coming and the US dollar will bloom. Moreover, I believe the PPMs believe 2011 will see huge profits made on long term short positions. So they conspired to hike the price back up in January, after the first week of strong selling. This contrived move up was to trick people into buying, while the PPMs continued to take the short side of all the buying. They have gotten the price back up to the lower channel line. And by now they have probably built sizeable long term short positions.

At some point now, they are no longer going to be able to convince other traders to venture into long positions. And they know it. So part of their strategy will likely include a sudden, deep drive down.....followed by relentless cycles raising the price and then shorting it even lower. All of which will be to "lock out" the longs, who will hang on for a while as the "fake" upsides of the cycles gives them false hopes. But the price will continue down, and eventually they will give up. By suddenly locking them out, they cannot become part of the short selling at the top group. They will be left holding the bag, so to speak. The faster and deeper the PPMs can drive the price down, and the longer the bag holders hold on in false hope as they see some upswings, the more money the PPMs will make when the bag holders finally start to close their losing longs (sell) and the PPMs start closing their shorts (buy).

Of course, with the Sonic R System, we really don't care about all this. There will continue to be long and short setups as the PPMs manipulate prices thru 2011.

Now, if you feel you have been overtrading and want to cut back, here is a single trade that you might consider (see 3rd chart)....should be good for over 4,000 pips.
Or, with a little patience, you could wait for TP2 (see 4th chart). The FE 262% level is closer to 8,000 pips.

Oh, and please don't think that this wee bitty run down will break the euro, either. They can always be "bailed out" by......uhm, let's see......oh yes, the Greeks and the Irish!

WARNING: Speculation. (Well, a little. )

nice analysis I would like to give you thoughts in opposite direction...
Bailout needed for Ireland, Greece, Portugal and maybe Spain (which has improved it's situation recently) could be very small compared to the bailout which USA gives for them self every year by "printing" dollars and injecting them into the market. If we would compare economics by earnings/spendings coefficient I doubt that there is an economy in the world which would be in worse situation then USA.

2nd thing is interest rate thing. If Europe will be forced to increase them sooner and more aggresive then USA in 2011, be sure that long trend will remain during entire year. Take a look at AUD for example. Australia was the only country which hold relatively high interest rates during the crisis
and was considered to be "safe heaven" for many investors.

Moreover, there are countries such as China for example who are holding their reserves in dollars and looking forward to balance them with other currencies (let's say EURos) for getting more independence from USA politics. If it's true selling of dollars and buying of EURos might be happening....

So another speculation, could be that target for EUR/USD is not 0.9 but 1.8 and pump & dump (as you call it) might turn into pump & pump & pump

Time will show... good night...

Nice analysis, too, Sali! And more based on fundymentals than mine.

There is one fundamental embedded in my senario, however, which remained unmentioned. But, since you brought up the topic of US debt owned by China, let's surmise a bit further. China has been a HUGE lender to the US! Sometimes I wonder if that is not their way of winning World War III!......don't militarily gear up to beat the US, just buy 'em out! Anyway, with as much US debt as China owns (staggers the mind), they are far better off eventually propping up the value of the US dollar than acting in any way to cause the sinking of it relative to other currencies. In the first manner, they retain and even increase buying power with those US debt securities. In the second manner, they just turn their holdings into "junk notes", ever declining in value! No, that won't work. That would be like hedging a bad trade (a HUGE bad trade!), but the more you add to the hedge, the faster the bad trade declines! No, the Chinese government is neither trustworthy, nor stupid. In the end, they will probably add the most interesting, and important chapter to the book of capitalism.....I'll take liberty and entitle it "Manipulating Currencies For Profit".

The key to winning this chess game is in figuring out in advance what the Chinese have planned as their final moves! ....to turn their huge holdings of US notes into GOLD, versus the rest of the currencies of the world. Buy low. Sell high. It is not a concept beyond the understanding of the Communist Chinese. In fact, they might be understanding it a lot better than we are giving them credit for!

Their final move in the chess game might be such as to make the "Thieves of Wall Street" look like a bunch of friggin' pikers, and Soros look like a beggar......a move that precipitates the restoration of the US dollar, and cements the Chinese as the financial giants in a new world order.

The "Thieves of Wall Street", and their counterparts in London and Frankfurt, are old school now. They have screwed the world too long, too hard, and have finally screwed THEMSELVES! .......on the other side of the world the Chinese are smiling.......and still buying.

Regards,
traderathome

AU:

Today (Thursday) could be a "Red Letter" day for this pair....high impact releases lined up as far as the eye can see!

The first one, an AUD High Impact release is now behind us. So far the gradual restoration of price, following yesterday's first decline after days of rise, is unchanged. So, we have in that fact, food for the thought that it is the stream of USD High Impact releases that the PPMs are manipulating the price for......slowly raising it in advance of these releases, shorting along the way and with enough time left over to acquire additional short positions at the top.

The releases are spread out over more than four hours later today; enough time for plenty of PA gyrations before any planned final cut out and run.

Because so many of the high impact releases are USD, the same logic holds for EU, GU, UCad, UChf, UJ, etc. I just used AU as an example because the AUD High Impact release is already behind us, and seems to have had absolutely no impact at all! The rising PA pattern has not skipped a beat in either direction......like the release never happened. And it might be because it never really mattered, in face of what the PPMs plan to do during/after the USD High Impact releases.

WARNING: Speculation.

GU:

The PPMs might truely be preparing for downside on this one.

M30- The FR study is applied to the bottom-most first swing up. PA hit the FR 638% level and has since been cycling downwards.

H1- The FR study is applied to the top-most first swing down. PA has pulled up, favoring the 50%-79% pullback area. But once the PPMs are loaded up short, the FR 638% downwards target looks attractive......for starters.

Interesting situation now for EUR/USD. In less then 2h minimum bid rate for EUR will be announced. If investors won't be happy with information which will come with the release, short setup might develop on hourly chart. It is against H4 trend, but if you like risk it might be worth considering

However we could get a long setup into H4 trend direction as well...

EU:

Yesterday PA swung above the whole number (overshot) and came back down to form a range, in which it is consolodating for another move. Inside the range it has just completed a SonicR short setup, and PA has moved down thru EP to the range bottom.

The range bottom is also a S&R area. At chart left you can see candle tops in the same area, with the natural support of the half number just below them. This being the case, and since we still have multiple high impact releases upcoming today, but yet hours away, it is not unreasonable that further preparations for the next move will be undertaken. Also, the US traders might want another crack at doing so, before anything happens.

Therefore if PA is to go down, it is also not unreasonable to contemplate that PA will be hiked again. If PA is to go up, then it might now linger low. Either way, it seems too early for a true breakout of the range boundary areas because we have not had the releases, and because the US traders are not yet at the table.

The curent SonicR short setup and first run down is, however, a strong indication that this is the direction PA will take, expecially since this setup started with a swing high above the Dragon to the range top, by the Frankfurt traders.......another "Frankfurt Head Fake"?

eurjpy

Theres a wave setup and dragon pointing down. Im on a short trade at 112.49.

I agree with you.

hanging man making in GU daily? sory no chart not at home..

Me too