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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #270,821
  • Feb 2, 2011 8:14am Feb 2, 2011 8:14am
Quoting deryworlds
and why I see only one way ticket on monthly in to 1.6650 if U guy's Agreed
if we're talking long term then I absolutely agree with you. I've never changed my 1.7 projection from june last year.

However, getting closer to what us retailers normally trade off, the immediate resistance atm is @1.63
We've had a breakout from the W1 pivot resistance @6144, so that now serves as immediate support. There's no retest of the broken 6144 yet, & there's a good chance of that happening. Will wait to see what happens there, if 6144 holds then will continue to buy the dips. If it fails, I'll start to look for selling opportunity.

Good luck
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Thank You
  • #270,822
  • Feb 2, 2011 8:21am Feb 2, 2011 8:21am
Quoting wormboy
then try harder my friend. take a look at the monthly, nothing there atm that suggest cable could to tank 800-1000 pips
thanks im definitely gonna have a look..still in learning process
  • #270,823
  • Feb 2, 2011 8:24am Feb 2, 2011 8:24am
Quoting kaspopsicle
Why?
please support your "ticket" with analysis and possibly a chart .That way we are all able to share.
This My Ticket at EMA 50
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  • #270,824
  • Feb 2, 2011 8:32am Feb 2, 2011 8:32am
Quoting wormboy
then try harder my friend. take a look at the monthly, nothing there atm that suggest cable could to tank 800-1000 pips
Hi Azim and everyone. Hope you are all well. Not been around for a few days but blimey cable has gone a bit crazy. Not going to think too much on shorting for the next few months as Azim has pointed out. Reason below:-

The PARABOLIC SAR has broken to the upside on the monthly. Here are a few results from 2006 till present, check them out.

JUNE 2006 - Approx 2809 pips.
FEB 2008 - Approx 6533 pips.
JUNE 2009 - Approx 1415 pips.
April 2010 - Approx 874 pips.

And now broken FEB 2011 . See what happens, GL to all.

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You've got to be IN IT to WIN IT!
  • #270,825
  • Feb 2, 2011 8:49am Feb 2, 2011 8:49am
Quoting deryworlds
This My Ticket at EMA 50
Thank you.
Most of us here are intraday raders, hence my question.
I'm thinking, now, that you are a medium to long term trader.
i apologize if i appeared rude.
Thanks to Wormie for the bigger picture.
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #270,826
  • Feb 2, 2011 8:53am Feb 2, 2011 8:53am
Quoting kaspopsicle
Thank you.
Most of us here are intraday raders, hence my question.
I'm thinking, now, that you are a medium to long term trader.
i apologize if i appeared rude.
Thanks to Wormie for the bigger picture.
And a very big thank you to Ifty for that heads up !
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #270,827
  • Feb 2, 2011 8:58am Feb 2, 2011 8:58am
Quoting kaspopsicle
And a very big thank you to Ifty for that heads up !
Pleasure Kas. Lets hope that we are all in the green on this monthly break. Obviously no indicator is 100% but if this break is a false one then that would be quite unlucky as it's been working since 2006 (and before that as well but I couldn't be bothered to go that far lol). Lets see.
You've got to be IN IT to WIN IT!
  • #270,828
  • Feb 2, 2011 9:04am Feb 2, 2011 9:04am
Quoting Ifty
...The PARABOLIC SAR has broken to the upside on the monthly...
Not looking for an argument but an understanding. Has the Parabolic SAR really broken to the upside, surely it will have only been broken when the month has closed?
  • #270,829
  • Feb 2, 2011 9:09am Feb 2, 2011 9:09am
Quoting Ifty
Pleasure Kas. Lets hope that we are all in the green on this monthly break. Obviously no indicator is 100% but if this break is a false one then that would be quite unlucky as it's been working since 2006 (and before that as well but I couldn't be bothered to go that far lol). Lets see.
Yes, this has prompted me to put the parabolic SAR 's up so i can backtest.Thanks Ift, greenies to us all.
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #270,830
  • Feb 2, 2011 9:11am Feb 2, 2011 9:11am
Quoting id5
Not looking for an argument but an understanding. Has the Parabolic SAR really broken to the upside, surely it will have only been broken when the month has closed?
If you look at the little green dots, they were in the downwards direction. NOW a new dot has appeared at the bottom because it has BROKEN through. Monthly closed or not doesn't matter to me. BROKEN means BROKEN to me.

PS. I have just realised that the quality of my chart is a bit crap when zoomed. Wonder what's happened there? I'll check my settings on my printscreen.
You've got to be IN IT to WIN IT!
  • #270,831
  • Feb 2, 2011 9:18am Feb 2, 2011 9:18am
Quoting Ifty
If you look at the little green dots, they were in the downwards direction. NOW a new dot has appeared at the bottom because it has BROKEN through. Monthly closed or not doesn't matter to me. BROKEN means BROKEN to me.

PS. I have just realised that the quality of my chart is a bit crap when zoomed. Wonder what's happened there? I'll check my settings on my printscreen.
If the price heads down then that little dot will change its position to the upside. It is not until the end of the month when the closing price is fixed does the indicator fix and period could then be declared broken. Isn't that correct?
  • #270,832
  • Feb 2, 2011 9:29am Feb 2, 2011 9:29am
Quoting id5
If the price heads down then that little dot will change its position to the upside. It is not until the end of the month when the closing price is fixed does the indicator fix and period could then be declared broken. Isn't that correct?
I am not saying that you cant be wrong but if you look at the last 8 months on my chart (as I use the Heikin Ashi candles) the candles are bullish and in a decent uptrend. So why should I think that all of a sudden it's going to turn bearish especially as the PSAR has also broken through. I am keeping an eye on the 1.63 level which is important and maybe could prove to me a double top (who knows). Anyway taking it one step at a time. Lets see what happens at the close of the next monthly candle but in the meantime I will see the break as a break.
You've got to be IN IT to WIN IT!
  • #270,833
  • Feb 2, 2011 9:32am Feb 2, 2011 9:32am
hi ifty,

nice to hear from you again.
I have one question for you and the rest of the traders here....when you say you won't touch a short trade why is that?
most of us are intraday traders that scoop some 30-40 pips per day....if you are swing trader and good on entries and exists you can even take out more.

for example there was a dropp of 50 pips from this morning's high which is more than enough for the majority here.....and it was predictable with the indies Momentum,RSI and Stochs.

even more than that,this down move will probably go as far as 1.6080 if we bounce a 1.6210-15 level and go south as the price broke the H1 trendline.
now we will have the upmove....let's see where it takes us.

the question is you will just stand aside ?or only go on buy trades when you have a good entry?

still upmove is in charge here to at least 1.6267
  • #270,834
  • Feb 2, 2011 9:38am Feb 2, 2011 9:38am
Quoting redbeben
hi ifty,

nice to hear from you again.
I have one question for you and the rest of the traders here....when you say you won't touch a short trade why is that?
most of us are intraday traders that scoop some 30-40 pips per day....if you are swing trader and good on entries and exists you can even take out more.

for example there was a dropp of 50 pips from this morning's high which is more than enough for the majority here.....and it was predictable with the indies Momentum,RSI and Stochs.

even more than that,this down move will probably go...
I am normally always shorting but do get bitten sometimes when I am going against the trend. My personal reason this time (not talking about LTF's, scalping etc) is that the DAILY, WEEKLY & MONTHLY atm moment are bullish. Those people who sold around the 1.56-1.59 levels are now crying and probably had their accounts blown (God forbid). If the trend was followed then that would not have happened.
You've got to be IN IT to WIN IT!
  • #270,835
  • Feb 2, 2011 9:43am Feb 2, 2011 9:43am
Quoting redbeben

even more than that,this down move will probably go as far as 1.6080 if we bounce a 1.6210-15 level and go south as the price broke the H1 trendline.
now we will have the upmove....let's see where it takes us.

oooppssss....I realy don't want to have a reason here I dont want to wait again for the uptrend after a correction
  • #270,836
  • Feb 2, 2011 9:49am Feb 2, 2011 9:49am
Quoting AlexejKir
thanks im definitely gonna have a look..still in learning process
you're welcome my friend. good luck in your future undertakings

Quoting Ifty
Hi Azim and everyone. Hope you are all well. Not been around for a few days but blimey cable has gone a bit crazy. Not going to think too much on shorting
hello brother,
great stuff there. I've not used psar extensively to trade before so that's really useful info for others to see & compare with their analysis.
Hope all is well!

Quoting kaspopsicle
Thank you.
Most of us here are intraday raders, hence my question.
I'm thinking, now, that you are a medium to long term trader.
i apologize if i appeared rude.
Thanks to Wormie for the bigger picture.
hi kas,
you're most welcome my friend
the long term picture will benefit even intraday traders make no mistake, because it is usually from the beginning of the year till the summer holidays most pairs are usually very trendy (htf). So knowing the general direction from the htf will allow you to pick better entries from the ltf.

Good luck!
Thank You
  • #270,837
  • Feb 2, 2011 9:59am Feb 2, 2011 9:59am
The strong move shown here on the 1H shows 300+ pips from
the point of compression but the earlier tf's that were the trigger
give ~400 pips from tip to tip with their customary pauses in
between. With such a steep slope though (60+ degrees incline),
it stands to reason there should be an expected correction. Will
it happen before a retest of the previous highs looming ahead
of 2010 (Oct. 1.6297 and Jan. 1.6456)?

With the exception of a few position traders who can handle
large swings in price there are always compression patterns
presenting on lower tfs to play it both ways. Right now I'm
watching the 5M to see if it will form into a tight pattern then
release... up or down. I'll let it set the direction for now. It
could roll-over (then the 15M becomes the key) or bounce on
up with a continuation to test the highs.

In every case there is always a c.pattern on a tf to spring from
and support a trade.

Just my views.

Dr. D.
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  • #270,838
  • Feb 2, 2011 10:01am Feb 2, 2011 10:01am
Quoting redbeben
hi ifty,

nice to hear from you again.
I have one question for you and the rest of the traders here....when you say you won't touch a short trade why is that?
most of us are intraday traders that scoop some 30-40 pips per day....if you are swing trader and good on entries and exists you can even take out more.

for example there was a dropp of 50 pips from this morning's high which is more than enough for the majority here.....and it was predictable with the indies Momentum,RSI and Stochs.

even more than that,this down move will probably go as...
I wouldn't touch short trades simply because the htf is very bullish.
Switch to the D1 & you'll see that the bull flag is now in play. Take the D1 close yesterday & you'll find no reason to sell. Even atm price is trading above the W1 pvp resistance & above yesterday's hi.
In hindsight yes the drop since LO would've allowed for some profit but it is the riskier option because you'll be shorting in the middle of nowhere.
Not to say that I don't counter trend trade, I do. But when something is trending so strong, I feel much more comfortable to take the counter at significant support or resistance levels.
But that's just me.

Have a good one.
Thank You
  • #270,839
  • Feb 2, 2011 10:01am Feb 2, 2011 10:01am
Quoting wormboy
you're welcome my friend. good luck in your future undertakings



hello brother,
great stuff there. I've not used psar extensively to trade before so that's really useful info for others to see & compare with their analysis.
Hope all is well!



hi kas,
you're most welcome my friend
the long term picture will benefit even intraday traders make no mistake, because it is usually from the beginning of the year till the summer holidays most pairs are usually very trendy (htf). So knowing the general direction from the htf will allow you to...
OMG Azim just realised Juniors birthday. My goodness it seems like only yesterday when you broke the news of his birth. Wishing him the very best in this world and the hereafter.
You've got to be IN IT to WIN IT!
  • #270,840
  • Feb 2, 2011 10:04am Feb 2, 2011 10:04am
Quoting redbeben
oooppssss....I realy don't want to have a reason here I dont want to wait again for the uptrend after a correction
next stop 1.6135 more or less.....but don't take it for granted....it can still go to 1.6080.

those levels are taken as well conservative following ichimocku as there is a flat line on H4 at 1.6023 but a support line at 1.6042-50...so in this case for such a drop 30 pips less it is fine

if I am wrong you can all boooo me and throw eggs at me
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