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DanUK's Advanced Trend Trading Strategy

  • #1,001
  • Jan 22, 2011 5:45am Jan 22, 2011 5:45am
Loving this thread!

Keep up the work guys, and have great weekends!

I'll post some charts myself too soon
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,002
  • Jan 22, 2011 6:26am Jan 22, 2011 6:26am
Is there an increased chance of success using multiple time frames, each with a fib retracement grid imposed upon the chart. For example, daily / weekly / monthly.
  • #1,003
  • Jan 22, 2011 7:19am Jan 22, 2011 7:19am
Hi guys, I'm away for the weekend so I can't make a particularly detailed post (bit awkward from iPhone!!) but thought I would just pop in to say a couple things!

First @bez - good to see you here my friend. Glad you are doing well!

Second @uncle g - I got stopped out of my Euro shorts this week - I will post a chart and full explanation when I get back! Made a good profit, but not quite as much as I was hoping!

For now though I think I am going to look for opportunities to buy the EU or EC!


Regards,

Dan
  • #1,004
  • Jan 24, 2011 6:50pm Jan 24, 2011 6:50pm
Potential EUR/AUD trade.
This pair has been falling since 2009. The current trendline starting Feb 2010 is still holding strong, there has been 3 occasions in the last year where shorting at the trendline has led to 1000+ pip gains, Also offers attractive rollover rate.
Wont be convinced until I see a close below support at 1.3650, if this doesn't happen in the next few days I will be lowering my stop loss considerably as there is also the possibility of a breakout to the upside.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,005
  • Jan 24, 2011 10:45pm Jan 24, 2011 10:45pm
Quoting MrCBee
Potential EUR/AUD trade.
This pair has been falling since 2009. The current trendline starting Feb 2010 is still holding strong, there has been 3 occasions in the last year where shorting at the trendline has led to 1000+ pip gains, Also offers attractive rollover rate.
Wont be convinced until I see a close below support at 1.3650, if this doesn't happen in the next few days I will be lowering my stop loss considerably as there is also the possibility of a breakout to the upside.
Look at that tidy W that this latest rally came out of. It's not every day that you see such neat W's or double bottoms.
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #1,006
  • Jan 25, 2011 2:13am Jan 25, 2011 2:13am
Quoting MrCBee
Potential EUR/AUD trade.
This pair has been falling since 2009. The current trendline starting Feb 2010 is still holding strong, there has been 3 occasions in the last year where shorting at the trendline has led to 1000+ pip gains, Also offers attractive rollover rate.
Wont be convinced until I see a close below support at 1.3650, if this doesn't happen in the next few days I will be lowering my stop loss considerably as there is also the possibility of a breakout to the upside.
Good point, NeoRio. Also I think the trendline is marked badly. In my view it is breached already. If there was any proper PA on the 1.3650 level, I will go long this pair.
The first chart is weekly, the second daily
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  • #1,007
  • Jan 25, 2011 6:43am Jan 25, 2011 6:43am
Quoting Milan
Good point, NeoRio. Also I think the trendline is marked badly. In my view it is breached already. If there was any proper PA on the 1.3650 level, I will go long this pair.
The first chart is weekly, the second daily
I am also in agreement that the trendline is breached. I believe that currently we may be seeing a retest of the other side of the trendline.

I entered EURUSD yesterday long from 1.3550. Worked out pretty good. It is annoyingly now bouncing around though trying to decide if it is going to break or respect the upwards TL. Stop is at breakeven though so nothing to lose, will see how it plays out.

Josh
  • #1,008
  • Jan 26, 2011 8:10am Jan 26, 2011 8:10am
Hi everyone, wat do u think abt this setup?
currently, price is on an uptrend but i feel it could be ending soon so I will be waiting for price to break the channel and re-test it before entering a short trade by PA.
If it fails to break, I look for price to break the down sloping trend line and wait for retest before entering. hoping to see it happen near the 1.3100 area for extra confirmation.

Any comments? good or bad, both are accepted
Attached Image
  • #1,009
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:27pm Jan 26, 2011 12:27pm
Quoting bez3000
Hi Dan how's the trading going, it's been a while so i thought i would pop in and say hello.
I still trade using the knowledge i learned from you and your threads as the basis of my trading.
So hope you are well and making loads of pips as usual and thanks for all you taught us in your threads.
Happy hunting.

Bez
Hi Bez,

Sorry it took a while to get back to you! Haven't been around much lately!

Trading is going well thank you, I hope things are going well for you too!

Hope to see you back here soon!

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,010
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:29pm Jan 26, 2011 12:29pm
Quoting b12
Hi, everyone, it seem that Dan and other top contributer of this thread post quite frequently lately hence, I decide to join in and post/share any interesting looking chart setup when i found one. So Dan the rules is still daily time frame chart isn't ?
Hi b12,

Kind of ironic you should post that (as I was subsequently missing for a while!).

Yes, daily time frame (particularly if you are new to trading) with progression to H4 when confident/skilled enough!

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,011
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:31pm Jan 26, 2011 12:31pm
Quoting Milan
sell GF. Sure, last entry finished on the SL, But I think now it is more reliable, better location, better price action.
Looks like this short is working out quite well, congratulations! If price is held under the 1.5000 level you could well see another 500+ pip drop here.

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,012
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:41pm Jan 26, 2011 12:41pm
Quoting uncle gromit
Hi Dan,

Are you still holding your Eur/cad short? If not, what was your exit strategy and where did you get out?

Regards

Paul
Hi Paul,

I finally exited my EUR/CAD short with less than I had wanted but a profit nonetheless.

I had two positions that remained open (indicated on my chart by the red arrows).

Once price came up and pierced the 1.3250 S/R level (on the 14th Jan) I moved my stop to the high of that bar. Price then dropped the following day and I figured the tend would resume... but I was wrong!

On the 18th price came back up to the 1.3250 level and closed above (again) and so I moved my stop to the high of the day which was subsequently taken out on the 19th.

I closed with 650 pips profit which was fine but disappointing due to the way the final swing worked out. Because the final swing didn't make a lower low before breaking the trend I had to give up about 1000 pips of profit (500 pip retracement x 2 positions). This of course was extremely irritating and one of the psychological parts of trading we all have to learn to accept!

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur cad.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #1,013
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:45pm Jan 26, 2011 12:45pm
Quoting happypi
Hi everyone, wat do u think abt this setup?
currently, price is on an uptrend but i feel it could be ending soon so I will be waiting for price to break the channel and re-test it before entering a short trade by PA.
If it fails to break, I look for price to break the down sloping trend line and wait for retest before entering. hoping to see it happen near the 1.3100 area for extra confirmation.

Any comments? good or bad, both are accepted
Hi happypi,

It's an interesting one. As it happens I have recently shorted this pair as my 4 hour chart showed a reasonable looking bearish outside bar off of the 1.3000 level. So for my own selfish reasons... I hope you're right lol!!

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,014
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:46pm Jan 26, 2011 12:46pm
Quoting DanUK
I had to give up about 1000 pips of profit (500 pip retracement x 2 positions). This of course was extremely irritating and one of the psychological parts of trading we all have to learn to accept!
Wow, you don't hear that every day! But good example, Dan, of being disciplined.

NeoRio
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #1,015
  • Jan 26, 2011 12:52pm Jan 26, 2011 12:52pm
Quoting NeoRio
Wow, you don't hear that every day! But good example, Dan, of being disciplined.

NeoRio
Yup, it's rare that such a thing will happen but it should be remembered if you are in a trade with multiple positions and it goes against you - you are going to loose a lot more in "pips" than you would with a single position.

But the main point is that discipline is of extreme importance. Unless you happen to be gifted with some kind of psychic foresight we can never tell when the trend is retracing or changing so it is important to apply certain rules in order that we do not exit too early due to fear or greed and also so that we do not exit too late.

Newbies must remember that you simply cannot expect to extract every pip from the market. There must be a logical reason to exit a trade and I try to ensure logic guides my exit as opposed to fear or greed.

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,016
  • Jan 26, 2011 1:08pm Jan 26, 2011 1:08pm
Quoting DanUK
Newbies must remember that you simply cannot expect to extract every pip from the market. There must be a logical reason to exit a trade and I try to ensure logic guides my exit as opposed to fear or greed.
Once again...very good. Dan, you're an excellent teacher.

Neo
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #1,017
  • Jan 26, 2011 3:52pm Jan 26, 2011 3:52pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi happypi,

It's an interesting one. As it happens I have recently shorted this pair as my 4 hour chart showed a reasonable looking bearish outside bar off of the 1.3000 level. So for my own selfish reasons... I hope you're right lol!!

Regards,

Dan
I went long on this pair due to the BUOB at swing low, trendline and at 1.29 level (indicated by arrow on chart). Do you think my analysis was wrong?

Cheers

Mark
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd26jan.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #1,018
  • Jan 27, 2011 12:53pm Jan 27, 2011 12:53pm
Quoting NeoRio
Once again...very good. Dan, you're an excellent teacher.

Neo
Thank you!
  • #1,019
  • Jan 27, 2011 12:54pm Jan 27, 2011 12:54pm
Quoting HxMark
I went long on this pair due to the BUOB at swing low, trendline and at 1.29 level (indicated by arrow on chart). Do you think my analysis was wrong?
Quoting HxMark

Cheers

Mark


Hi Mark,

No, I wouldn't say you were wrong - and I must admit that at that time I was of a similar mind.

However, I would add that at that time price flow had started to show the development of a downtrend (which I have highlighted on my daily chart in blue to show the lower highs/lower lows that were developing) that had me a little concerned.

In my eyes, the s/r level was slightly higher - as indicated by the blue box on my charts.

As I saw it, price bounced back up (after you went long off of the BUOB) but failed to exceed the previous lower high (indicated by the orange box) and then sliced back through the s/r level.

I watched this happen on the H4 chart (second attachment) which culminated in a small trendline (blue) being broken by a bearish outside bar - not perfect but a pretty good signal nonetheless.

I sold below this at 1.2940.

-----

So, all that being said - I don't think you were far off in your initial analysis but I do also think it is worth paying attention to price flow (i.e. the higher/lower highs/lows) which may have given you another perspective to look at.

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,020
  • Jan 27, 2011 2:31pm Jan 27, 2011 2:31pm
OK. Thanks Dan

I was stopped out today.
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