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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #270,161
  • Jan 26, 2011 3:49pm Jan 26, 2011 3:49pm
Quoting redsword11
Attachment
Kind of puzzled by your post, as GU's retraced back almost it's whole down move, and to your sell point. (I am assuming you sold when that drop started, pre-UK GDP, unless of course, you're selling it now, because of the potential resistance there?) Just popped a ridiculous 30 pips in these last 30 min before NY 5pm close. So, we're closing at the daily high, and Asia is likely to sell the USD. Reminds me of a 150 pip up move that GBPJPY did this past summer, right after the NY close. (Can't remember if GU took part - probably)

Why and how GU deserves this - other than the move out of USD - is beyond me. And not even a real retest of the bottom, 175 pips ago.

Either it's a bull trap and trick, or, as I may have to admit - smart money buying this turd.
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  • #270,162
  • Jan 26, 2011 4:08pm Jan 26, 2011 4:08pm
Quoting matlock
Gosh, it hit the stop-loss. But yeah, got to change to the plan B since nothing have happened to the volume. Stop-loss seemed to be too tight - didn't expect such a dumb move. But I think I'm gonna open an another one as the next hourly chart closes since the volume is still relatively low.
If I'm understanding your volume statement, you're reading into the most illiquid and least active time of the day - I would not advise making decisions based on that. From a volume and move perspective, GBPUSD has seen smart money buying of it's lows through the last 2 sessions at least, ever since the GDP news. I am not a sterling believer, but the charts are speaking otherwise IMO.

Yes, there was a silly and somewhat unexpected pop in these last few minutes before the NY close, but, I see it as a reaction to the FOMC bleak report card on the US recovery and the dumping of the USD this has gone on, and Asia is likely to carry on with - take a M15 USDJPY and an inverse GBPUSD and they look eerily similar.

GBPUSD 200-hr SMA is around 1.5925/30 so it should offer some resistance, but the potential for USD weakness to drive this thing up are greater IMO, esp. given we have closed at the daily high. As long as we remain above 1.586, bullish potential is great.
  • #270,163
  • Jan 26, 2011 4:48pm Jan 26, 2011 4:48pm
...this turd. Just jotted a few thoughts down regarding the UK:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=802
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #270,164
  • Jan 26, 2011 4:48pm Jan 26, 2011 4:48pm
I re-entered my short @ 15900 after the previous stopped out at BE-2 and the numerous attempts to close above 15900 after the news. Figures, that once my Sell Limit got hit, it jumps up to the 15930 mark, where i had originally planned to enter, but got scared with the PA at the 15900 level.
  • #270,165
  • Jan 26, 2011 6:30pm Jan 26, 2011 6:30pm
Quoting redsword11
Attachment
you hold the position, until the price returns at the opening,,?

why is there no cut profit,,? what is there other reasons?
only an analysis, and I'm always wrong, don't follow me,
  • #270,166
  • Jan 26, 2011 7:11pm Jan 26, 2011 7:11pm
bearish crab
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  • #270,167
  • Jan 26, 2011 7:15pm Jan 26, 2011 7:15pm
Quoting 45Condor
...this turd. Just jotted a few thoughts down regarding the UK:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=802
Ha ha ha, your opening monologue had me rolling on the floor
and your concluding reviews had me licking my chops at the
prospects to come...

"...an ever tightening Guppy profile which is normally a precursor to
a breakout of prolonged duration. November / December 2009 saw a
similar compression of the red and blue MA's, prior to a six month drop."

I shall serve you up a vouch for your literary style and charting skills.

Dr. D.
  • #270,168
  • Jan 26, 2011 8:06pm Jan 26, 2011 8:06pm
Quoting Exsilium
Im not sure anyone here trades what is evidently a very long term trade

Myself, I open and close trades daily (almost). I cant imagine holding a trade that long.
I have been in several trades for about 16 weeks now. Does that count?
  • #270,169
  • Jan 26, 2011 8:13pm Jan 26, 2011 8:13pm
Quoting Beljevina
If I'm understanding your volume statement, you're reading into the most illiquid and least active time of the day - I would not advise making decisions based on that. From a volume and move perspective, GBPUSD has seen smart money buying of it's lows through the last 2 sessions at least, ever since the GDP news. I am not a sterling believer, but the charts are speaking otherwise IMO.

Yes, there was a silly and somewhat unexpected pop in these last few minutes before the NY close, but, I see it as a reaction to the FOMC bleak report card on the...
As I agree with you that the usd is a piece of crap we have to look which is a bigger piece of crap. I have atm a bullish bias with e/u but still remain bearish... at least until we break 6100ish I believe, which is the high of november. G/U has a big setup here for either a bullish reversal breakout, or meet up with massive resistance.
  • #270,170
  • Jan 26, 2011 8:17pm Jan 26, 2011 8:17pm
Quoting primzvicious


for gu im still on waiting mode
first short initiated... will add if it touch 1.5925

sl @1.5950
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Verily, in every difficulties there is relief
  • #270,171
  • Jan 26, 2011 8:17pm Jan 26, 2011 8:17pm
Good day to you,

For the next 4 hrs, looking to selectively sell into strength will be my strategy. Scalps. Will see if any opportunity arise.

All the best

Regards
  • #270,172
  • Jan 26, 2011 8:17pm Jan 26, 2011 8:17pm
Quoting Ctic
As I agree with you that the usd is a piece of crap we have to look which is a bigger piece of crap. I have atm a bullish bias with e/u but still remain bearish... at least until we break 6100ish I believe, which is the high of november. G/U has a big setup here for either a bullish reversal breakout, or meet up with massive resistance.
Don’t misread this post though. All I am saying is that I am not willing to buy unless we break the 6100 level or sell until we break 5350. I still think it will be the 5350 but I am not willing to risk a big trade until we do.
  • #270,173
  • Jan 26, 2011 8:35pm Jan 26, 2011 8:35pm
Quoting Ctic
Don’t misread this post though. All I am saying is that I am not willing to buy unless we break the 6100 level or sell until we break 5350. I still think it will be the 5350 but I am not willing to risk a big trade until we do.
NP - I get you. Problem is we're just retailers and our opinion is irrelevant. And yes, we don't know the ugly contest judging criteria.

But, we know there are forces out there to screw us and take our money, so we need to think like the enemy IMO. A year ago, I would have been able to capture much of the 200 pip rise from here to 1.61 (if it happens) - nowadays, I'm happy with 50 pips, perhaps even 2x. Under normal circumstances we should at least revisit 1.583, but the equity market correlations and a declining USD and flows out of it are real game changers.
  • #270,174
  • Jan 26, 2011 8:56pm Jan 26, 2011 8:56pm
Quoting Low
Price movement during the event is arbitrary.

The only way to try and trade the news is to trade the traders reaction to it.
Making sense out of irrational exhuberance.

Off topic: So how is the NzdChf trades coming?

I see the weekly is still forming it's ema compression. Drilling
down, it looks like the 4h is the chart to really watch since it's
in a very tight compression and look to the 30m ema which
should preceed a sequence of releases provided the price
stays below the 0.7343, and near 0.7313 and 0.7257 (all 144
ema's respectively). In the meantime, enough PA generated
c.patterns in lower tfs to keep you busy.

Dr. D.
Attached Image
  • #270,175
  • Jan 26, 2011 9:02pm Jan 26, 2011 9:02pm
Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you,

For the next 4 hrs, looking to selectively sell into strength will be my strategy. Scalps. Will see if any opportunity arise.

All the best

Regards
Strategy cancelled. Will step aside. No trade taken.

Regards
  • #270,176
  • Jan 26, 2011 9:47pm Jan 26, 2011 9:47pm
Quoting TauTrader
Strategy cancelled. Will step aside. No trade taken.

Regards
Good call. At this point it appears there is no dollar demand or sterling weakness. It appears many are dumping cash I.e. the dollar to buy equities.. stocks as the u.s stock market has zero weakness and gets new 2 year highs every day.
  • #270,177
  • Jan 26, 2011 9:50pm Jan 26, 2011 9:50pm
Quoting Ctic
Good call. At this point it appears there is no dollar demand or sterling weakness. It appears many are dumping cash I.e. the dollar to buy equities.. stocks as the u.s stock market has zero weakness and gets new 2 year highs every day.
On the flip side since gb economy is dog shit many may be dumping london stocks and keeping cash I.e. sterling.
  • #270,178
  • Jan 26, 2011 10:37pm Jan 26, 2011 10:37pm
Quoting matlock
Don't really take everything people say in to your heart. Magix tried to shatter me about my analysis the other day, but I didn't care .
I wasn't trying to shatter you...I just said that you are using your bias to read your charts. Take any time frame and apply the same logic, and you will be on the losing end more then the winning.

It wasn't about me trying to squash you here friend. Was just saying that your interpretation of the indicators wasn't accurate. I was merely trying to steer you into a better trade logic and market understanding.

I didn't disagree that price was bound to correct, but certainly wasn't off anything you posted in your charts. Go back and read what I wrote, perhaps even look at the last charts I posted here on the cable thread. If you were offended by what I said, well, that's your issue to deal with.

I have spent the last few days working with others on trading in my own thread, not to say how great I am, it is just something I truly enjoy. Studying charts, seeing traders logic, coaching a few as we move through the mess...

Stop by sometime, you will see that maybe my intent was more of an informative then was an attack...

Have a gander at the last few pages here...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...208103&page=45

Best of luck into Midweek!

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #270,179
  • Jan 26, 2011 10:42pm Jan 26, 2011 10:42pm
word of wisdom !
Quoting Magix
I wasn't trying to shatter you...I just said that you are using your bias to read your charts. Take any time frame and apply the same logic, and you will be on the losing end more then the winning.

It wasn't about me trying to squash you here friend. Was just saying that your interpretation of the indicators wasn't accurate. I was merely trying to steer you into a better trade logic and market understanding.

I didn't disagree that price was bound to correct, but certainly wasn't off anything you posted in your charts. Go back and read what I...
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #270,180
  • Jan 26, 2011 10:48pm Jan 26, 2011 10:48pm
Quoting Ma Baker
GL 2u2



Where Will be ur " V " ...!?

1.62 ?


first target

(v) = 61.8% - 100.0% (i)

Quoting Exsilium
I like your chart, its methodical and clean, easy to read and it makes sense.
thanks ..dont mention it
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