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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #269,421
  • Jan 21, 2011 12:02am Jan 21, 2011 12:02am
Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you,

Looking at price and time - I would love to see 1.5780/85 by end today. Will be in meetings this morning so will leave positions open - but charts do look good for some more downward movement.

This, off course - could change quite quickly.

Good luck to all and will pop in a bit later.

Regards
1.5550 is on the cards
  • #269,422
  • Jan 21, 2011 12:04am Jan 21, 2011 12:04am
Quoting Ctic
I must say though, You did find the top very nicely.
rofL
  • #269,423
  • Jan 21, 2011 12:05am Jan 21, 2011 12:05am
Quoting Endrju
Hi Ctic!
Do you think that there is a chance of really bad retail data? Without bad data, i think it's gonna be really hard to move significantly lower, eur/usd is still bouncing strongly on dips and that could give some support to cable, or i'm missing something?
As for the news, if you read some of my posts from weeks ago, and longer, I am not a news trader and I do believe the news if factored into price long before the data is released. Bad data or not, it doesn't matter.

Look at the US news for example. The US Long term purchases was about double the forcast. Building permits was up, and we went down.

On the same sense look at GBP.... Better Claimant Count Change than what was expected. Mr Dipshit Posen said something (who cares what), GBP CPI better than expected etc... and here we still go down.

So like I said... really doesn't matter.
  • #269,424
  • Jan 21, 2011 12:07am Jan 21, 2011 12:07am
Thanks Ctic for reply!
I agree that there is chance of going lower in short term, but since many are bullish on pound because of possible rates rise i don't believe that it could go as low as 1.41--. Nice chart
  • #269,425
  • Jan 21, 2011 12:08am Jan 21, 2011 12:08am
Quoting Ctic
I agree TT and I do believe you will see your 5780 or lower. I am looking at a retest of 5350 here (not today of course but within the next week or so).

C.
That would be special. Was left with foot-in-mouth a couple of days ago.... seems the indicators were leading too much... I was WAY too quick on this. But so we learn.

Hope to walk away from this and be better prepared for the next.

All success to you
  • #269,426
  • Jan 21, 2011 12:13am Jan 21, 2011 12:13am
Quoting TauTrader
That would be special. Was left with foot-in-mouth a couple of days ago.... seems the indicators were leading too much... I was WAY too quick on this. But so we learn.

Hope to walk away from this and be better prepared for the next.

All success to you
I have been waiting for a break of the 5350 before I put in any large positons. For now I have been taking small shorts here ant there. Probably would of been better off going long last week, but didn't really want to fight the short side bias I have. The top we found days ago @ approx 6040, happens to be the 600 ema, and the 138.2 fib for the weekly candle (4H chart). The perfect turn around spot. Of course we could always head back that way to make the 161.8

C.
  • #269,427
  • Jan 21, 2011 12:19am Jan 21, 2011 12:19am
Quoting Ctic
I have been waiting for a break of the 5350 before I put in any large positons. For now I have been taking small shorts here ant there. Probably would of been better off going long last week, but didn't really want to fight the short side bias I have. The top we found days ago @ approx 6040, happens to be the 600 ema, and the 138.2 fib for the weekly candle (4H chart). The perfect turn around spot. Of course we could always head back that way to make the 161.8

C.
Verily, in every difficulties there is relief
  • #269,428
  • Jan 21, 2011 12:19am Jan 21, 2011 12:19am
Quoting Exsilium
Waiting for the asian session to figure out what they want to do for the day. Recently they have been significantly moving things around and I want to be prepared. We are in a really tight range right now for the last couple hours.

I read somewhere that there are a bunch of asian bids at certain points (dont remember where).

On another note, is the Bears and Bulls indicator useful? Right now as far as I can rell, the bulls out number the bears by quite a bit on the 5m, 15m and 1h.

The PA has bounced a few times off the 15895 level a few times...
hi. what is the bears and bulls indicator and could you send it to me and also help me explain how it works? thanks
  • #269,429
  • Jan 21, 2011 12:21am Jan 21, 2011 12:21am
Quoting Endrju
Thanks Ctic for reply!
I agree that there is chance of going lower in short term, but since many are bullish on pound because of possible rates rise i don't believe that it could go as low as 1.41--. Nice chart
Nothing is impossible for the forex market mate! UK is dealing with a lot of problems and forget about 1.6 i doubt even 1.5000 will hold.The price will dip below 1.5 and by the end of december can retrace back to 1.52 mark...
  • #269,430
  • Jan 21, 2011 12:21am Jan 21, 2011 12:21am
Quote
hi. what is the bears and bulls indicator and could you send it to me and also help me explain how it works? thanks

I believe the bears and bulls indicator is one made by "Track n' Trade". It's their front line indicator invention...
Do or do not, there is no try...
  • #269,431
  • Jan 21, 2011 12:22am Jan 21, 2011 12:22am
Quoting lechidi
hi. what is the bears and bulls indicator and could you send it to me and also help me explain how it works? thanks
It depends on the broker you are trading with. Every one has their own volume indicators. I doubt there is an overall indicator available?
  • #269,432
  • Jan 21, 2011 12:24am Jan 21, 2011 12:24am
I'm going now..

Current PA suggests we are nearing a good place to short. This can be traded back to 1.5894/5. The higher we go now, the better return. Do not trade this - just an observation.

Testing something...

See later
  • #269,433
  • Jan 21, 2011 12:25am Jan 21, 2011 12:25am
Quoting lechidi
hi. what is the bears and bulls indicator and could you send it to me and also help me explain how it works? thanks
Im pretty sure the Bears and Bulls indicators are party of the default MT4 package. Look under Oscillators or Custom indicators in your list.
  • #269,434
  • Jan 21, 2011 12:25am Jan 21, 2011 12:25am
Quoting Endrju
Thanks Ctic for reply!
I agree that there is chance of going lower in short term, but since many are bullish on pound because of possible rates rise i don't believe that it could go as low as 1.41--. Nice chart
True, but let me play devil's advocate here and look at the flip side. Not saying this is correct, but ood for argument sake. I remember hearing about these rate increases last week or week before, not sure exactly. From there we basically had 9 up days in a row..almost like it was artifically inflated.

Now for a transaction to be made you need two parties (a buyer and a seller) can't have it without both. If the common Joe is buying who is selling??? So big boys are loading up there short positions while the common Joe is loading up on longs. Then when who knows what happens...boom...Common Joe loses.

Gold has been dropping, oil down $3 or so on highs U.S. Nasdaq seems to have started to fall (not major move though), but this typically suggests a bit of dollar strength.

Don't get me wrong though, really price is at a point where it can go either way. Many feel it will go long, many short.
  • #269,435
  • Jan 21, 2011 12:28am Jan 21, 2011 12:28am
Quoting TauTrader
I'm going now..

Current PA suggests we are nearing a good place to short. This can be traded back to 1.5894/5. The higher we go now, the better return. Do not trade this - just an observation.

Testing something...

See later
See you TT. I am going soon too. Bed time for me.
  • #269,436
  • Jan 21, 2011 12:35am Jan 21, 2011 12:35am
IMHO if this move tops 1.5952, the 89 1H SMA, we might be in for a bullish day assuming this isnt just a setup for the European session. I see green across the board right now, EURUSD is above 1.3500 again.
  • #269,437
  • Jan 21, 2011 12:59am Jan 21, 2011 12:59am
Quoting wormboy
Lovely.
Did we catch the turn & sold from the top of the mountain? We'll know in a week. Leaving the remaining trade to work. Have a lovely weekend everyone.
Ta!
haha wormie.

yes we will see in a week. sold for 40 pips and stepped aside. still wary of GU moves at the mo. almost as if stops are being chased to the upside and to the downside and then when retailers are tired or wiped out then the big drop or the big boom! just a hunch...
am still biased to the downside and will probably get in if the 50 fib holds @5925ish, for anothe 40 pips. cheers
  • #269,438
  • Jan 21, 2011 12:59am Jan 21, 2011 12:59am
Thoughts?

 

  1. Retail Sales: Friday, 9:30. A major indicator will also close the week. After a small rise of 0.3% last month, a drop of 0.1% is expected now. This is the last figure before the raise in VAT in January 2011, so it may surprise with a rise as consumers might have readied themselves for this rise.
  2. Mortgage Approvals: Friday, 9:30. The preliminary figure for this important housing sector figure is expected to tick up to 49K, after a edging up to 48K last month. This solid figure is usually in a tight range.

  • #269,439
  • Jan 21, 2011 1:05am Jan 21, 2011 1:05am
DTL capping this at about 15980 - do we make quadruple top?
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  • #269,440
  • Jan 21, 2011 1:10am Jan 21, 2011 1:10am
Rejected twice by 61.8 - I put in a short at the 50
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