Building an equity millipede

Very good advice / guideline. Those points will help both new and experienced traders. This is very important IMOP 'Create a good trading log of setups, entry and exits and take a lot of screenshots like nomask to help you analyze the market after the fact and learn from your mistakes. Consider trading as a journey and not a race to riches or to bring food on the table. Build a passion for it and success will come knocking'

Thanks

@VEEFX

thanks for you good input, this helps me alot. yes, i do not fix SL but looking for major support and resistance for the placement within the 100 pips.

today was day one for my new strategy and it feels alot better. yesterday i burned out on the screen, today i made strategic plans for about 10 pairs, managed 3 entrys that are on a good way, so this is better than what i managed the whole last week.

thx vee..seems very handy..

for the people just started trading this method i'd strongly suggest sticking to only one pair preferably eurusd...
once you're experienced on it you can get couple more pairs

my latest trade stopped at break even..

this week we've had
4 losing trades in total of 18 pips+commission
3 break even..
-------------------
total 7 trades for 4days with 18 pips loss

[quote=ezcurrency;4330457]Hi Everyone,

As a side project, I’ve been working on some statistical analysis using the past 6 years of weekly price data to gain some insight into weekly behavior. I will post more when finished with this project, but here is a sample of my findings:

For EURUSD:


If its an up week, then there is a 26.8% chance of closing within the top 10% of the range.

So there is a better than 50/50 chance of closing within 20% of the weekly range’s high if an up week. This proves mathematically that its best to hold till the week’s close if long. If price was normally distributed for the weekly range, then it woudl be 50/50 chance of closing in the middle of the weekly range.

Regards,
EZCurrency[/QUO

Thank you! interesting info

@ezcurrency - mmhhhhh.... this seems valuable. Could you briefly outline how you do these calculation please... Do you use R? How to you get the data sets? Really would appreciate some insights! Thks in advance

when i first read Graeme's first post on this thread, I knew he was up to something...

AND I WAS RIGHT, OR SHOULD I SAY HE WAS RIGHT,...

2,800 PIPS SINCE TUES BABY!!!

Been stacking on a few pairs and voila what do u know, i just reached my all-time high pips-wise and also percentage-wise...

Thank you, thanks you, thank you to the big man!!!

I hope you believe in karma Graeme, coz a boatload of good karma is headed your way...

Hello alphiner,

this one i can answer for you.

since you have a day job as do I, i just use monthly, weekly for hindsight and enter trades based on daily candles. I open smaller lots with higher stoploss, thus making your losing dollar amount relatively same when compared to entering on 5 minutes but a full lot. The only down part about this is that it takes a while to get statistics about your performance, the up part is you have a while to make up your mind and it takes about 30mins ish to go through all the major currency pair and place optimal trades in each of them (if you think it is a good trade, a good place to start would be going through nomask's charts as they are very detailed and concise, instead of 4hour for hindsight, use monthly, and instead of pinpoint entry on 5 mins, use daily if not hourly candles for your entry (after work)), thus you not only save yourself hours of sleep, you just spread your risk across 20ish pairs.

just my thought. hope this helped. (also, Graeme talked about this, take anychart and remove the time on the x axis and price from the y axis, you wont be able to tell the difference between a 5 min vs daily chart )

just a question to anyone willing to answer...

hindsight w/ 1 month then entry on the daily or 4 hr???

or hindsight w/ weekly and entry on the daily or 4hr???

You first made 2,800 pips in 3 days and THEN YOU ASK THE QUESTIONS?????

I wish I was so ignorant as you (joking, no offense meant).

The idea in my view is, if monthly hindsight and weekly hindsight point to the same direction, then it's the best circumstance you can get for trying Daily/H4 open probes.

If monthly and weekly disagree, then the monthly should be considered stronger. But then again such disagreements could signal the start of a new trend direction. So, as per Graeme's instructions a few months ago, it's best to skip the pairs that show opposite weekly and monthly bias, as they have a lesser probability of giving good signals for millipede legs.

My 0.02 EUR,

Christos

[quote=3phase;4331992]You first made 2,800 pips in 3 days and THEN YOU ASK THE QUESTIONS?????

I wish I was so ignorant as you (joking, hey no offense meant).

"Ignorance is bliss"

Let's just say i've tried to "delete" almost everything i've read/learned so far about trading since Graeme's started this thread...

I wanted to start fresh....well, maybe except james 16 and PASR as they serve to be my main entry strategy...

but as far as MM, psychology,mindset and expectation is concerned, i've restarted everything...

PS. i'm up by 2,969 pips as im writing this...my losses,well,they'r so miniscule i wouldn't even bother remember much less record them...

Thats a mighty effort, mind if I ask, is this on eu, or which pairs.

yes...

what about hindsight on monthly, probing on daily and 4hrly, and stacking on 1 hr and 15min????

possibilities are endless really, what ever works for you.

Hi Mob,

Correct, I used R. I have posted my code below if you wanted to replicate. As for the data, I either got it from my broker (Dukascopy), or Forex.com UK demo act from MT4 ... I forgot where. I was going to download data for multiple pairs from Dukascopy (its clean data, whereas sometimes MT4 is missing data), and do more analysis.

I was wondering if you (or anyone familiar with R) would like to help with the analysis. I will provide all of the R scripts, and weekly data ... I just need someone to help crunch the #'s, and copy and paste the results into a word document. I will provide a template for all of this. I think dividing up the work will speed up generating the results, which will be useful to all. I will compile all results into a .pdf with weekly range analysis. Later we can expand to monthly.

Below is the R script ...

Regards,
EZ

------------------------
# read in data file (make sure its got headers as O H L C
# everything else you can delete (time or vol for instance)
# this is generic ... just change file name to any file, and this
# will work. Make sure R is set up in to reference the same directory
# as the data: File/Change dir in R ...
#
x <- read.csv ("EURUSDFXF10080.csv", header=T)

# dimension (# of data points) .... I had 310 (about 6 yrs of weekly data)
dim(x)

# separate out up and down weeks
up <- x[(x$C > x$O),]
down <- x[(x$C < x$O),]

# calculate weekly range
range <- x$H - x$L

# historgram to visualize range distribution ** make sure to change currency
# name in main for chart title
hist(range, freq=FALSE, breaks=30, main="EURUSD weekly range distribution")

# summary of range
summary(range)

# calculate up range and pips close from high
upRange <- up$H-up$L
upX <- up$H - up$C

# percent of range closing near high
upPercent <- upX/upRange

# plot of pips closing near high (y axis) vs. pips range (x axis). Clustering
# at the lower left of the plot shows tendancy to close near high of range for
# an up week
plot(upRange, upX)

# histogram of % closing near high for up week
hist(upPercent, main = "Histogram of % closing near high for up week")

# summary of % closing near high for up week
# for EURUSD, 3rd quartile is 0.338 ... this means that 75% of the time
# for an up week, EURUSD closes within 33.8% of the weekly range from the high
summary(upPercent)

# calculate probability of closing within 30% of weekly range within the high
# change 0.3 to other values to see the probability of closing within that % of high
j <- (upPercent[upPercent < 0.3])
length(j) / length(upPercent)

##### do the same, but for down weeks #####

# calculate down range and pips close from low
downRange <- down $H-down $L
downX <- down$C - down$L

# percent of range closing near low
downPercent <- downX/downRange

# plot of pips closing near low (y axis) vs. pips range (x axis). Clustering
# at the lower left of the plot shows tendancy to close near low of range for
# an down week
plot(downRange, downX)

# histogram of % closing near low for down week
hist(downPercent, main = "Histogram of % closing near low for down week")

# summary of % closing near low for down week
summary(downPercent)

# calculate probability of closing within 30% of weekly range within the high
# change 0.3 to other values to see the probability of closing within that % of high
j <- (downPercent[downPercent < 0.3])
length(j) / length(downPercent)

Ok folks.... I have been wanting to doing this for some time now but thought instead of doing alone, there might be interest among readers to do this also. Hence this post.

This weekend, I will be doing the following:
- Be truthful to myself and clear everything you know about EURUSD from your head!
- Open EURUSD monthly and weekly charts
- quickly go to 1/1/10 candle in a manner that hides all candles from 1/1/10 till date
- use step and step (F12) key feature in MT4 and step one candle at a time
- log your monthly and weekly hindsight in the attached xls for each monthly and weekly candle. For weekly, do not factor monthly hindsight!
- hit F12 again and validate your hindsight and log results in the xls

If folks prefer to send me their results via PM/email and I will share the results on monday or they could do this practice on their own.

hey vee
could you re post this attachment in an older excel format please, some of us are still running 2003 excel versions
cheers
geoff

good point... i updated the xls version in my post. please start with weekly hindsight first and then move to monthly. I also added a analysis column as optional and "FLAT" for hindsight which means stay away from this pair

I would be more than interested & happy to get involved, but as Chinese New Year holidays are coming up end next week (with a well deserved holiday for me), need to postpone this till mid Feb if u can wait that long.... Let me know or PM me

Gong Shi Fa Chai in advance mate.