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  • #4,061
  • Jan 18, 2011 7:17pm Jan 18, 2011 7:17pm
Hello All,

At 4HR, price couldn’t close above 38.2% Fib level for a little over a month now. I’ll be looking to short at 1.3410 area. I am anticipating an engulfing bearish candle at the 4HR chart breaking current support at 1.3382 and closing below it.
  • #4,062
  • Jan 19, 2011 2:51am Jan 19, 2011 2:51am
Hi Guys,

My opinion on EURUSD:

Assuming that you are looking for longer term (at least 2-4 weeks of price moving towards your hindsight), and that price interpretation is the same on all timeframes:

Do you see sell on the Weekly or Daily charts ? I don't...hence I haven't traded much this week (-20 pips loss in total this week so far).

Kindest Regards,

Cam
  • #4,063
  • Jan 19, 2011 3:19am Jan 19, 2011 3:19am
My weekly interpretation
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...0-abd749a52571
This week's important candles that i call them setup/signal candles..
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...3-7597a1e25bf9
Right now its forming an important candle and i'll come back to check that again when its completed in one hour..
  • #4,064
  • Jan 19, 2011 4:35am Jan 19, 2011 4:35am
Another probe and it failed very quickly...well if its very quick that means you'are in the wrong direction...I'll keep updating
4hr look
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...6-dddf2c0cbe38

entry
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...6-021a1f3c0cf3
  • #4,065
  • Jan 19, 2011 5:55am Jan 19, 2011 5:55am
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...7-4816dda1e580
here is a no trade chart...
I'll just update later if anything comes up..
and I'll try to cover next 3 days as well to show some traders how i manage not to overtrade..
in the last three days we caught 4 setup candles and missed 1..Some of you already know it was the only one did very well (already posted it) and could be in nice unrealized profit by now but it's okay...i can't be up for 24 hours..
so anyway with 4 setup we did 5 entries
4 losing trades in total of 18 pips+commission
1 break even..
-------------------
total 5 trades for 3days with 18 pips loss..thats it..
those were only fishworms...
Don't give out a fish for another fish..
no need to be generous to the market..
  • #4,066
  • Jan 19, 2011 7:43am Jan 19, 2011 7:43am
my first reply in this forum, it took me more than a week to cover all the posts in this thread, by far the best thread i have seen, i am newbie started trading forex just 6 month ago, i started demo this week, will start live with micro from next month, all strategies you shown to us are priceless pipeasy...i have taken open price of day as my first strategy and i have applied it successfully on london and us opening, i use simple steps like on 5 or 15min chart, if price is closes above opening price and next candle takes high i long the position with stoploss as candle closing below open price, 2 lots one book at nearest target let the other move to break even, and let the market decide. vice versa for sell, so far i must say i grabbed more than 100 pips on three days, though i have to admit that, i am bit emotional on trading,i know i may faces rough weather in future, but iam confident that i will get better. i have start analysing week and monthly chart too from now on, i too know where is open, high,low,close of weekly and monthly chart , flying budda, chart pattern and 50% fib etc, i must say it's better than indicator system, price action is key, i am lucky that i stumbled upon this thread, this gonna save me 1000's of pip loss from next month on live trading. iam on right path of success thanks pipeasy ..


ps: english is not my first language.
  • #4,067
  • Edited 1:01pm Jan 19, 2011 9:06am | Edited 1:01pm
My 2cents.

The E/U has gone through a massive recovery over the past 2 weeks.
I think for the exercise its really good practise to maintain that monthly hindsight and it does keep you from over trading and help to preserve the capital.

However, if you are looking at this as a business, over the mid to longterm period i.e ( weekly to monthly) then there were some nice pips available to be had this week.
Hence, I anticipate a weekly and a monthly PA.

this week on the EU + GU I have a long weekly hindsight( because of the BUOB previously), as Graeme said( sometimes the daily, weekly lines up with the monthly) but more often they are out of sync.

Then you look out for the road signs on the 4h and daily( constant frequency, where prices move then shrink its during this cycle the directions are revealed more often than not, so probing is our regular cycle of action).

What is probing I asked myself ? Probing is The regular Low risk cycle of action that we take in the market that if survive our hindsight will be the most profitable investment ever.

I think thats how the teacher sums it up.

I really think I'm applying this in my trading on all pairs. I cycled through and pass some pairs because the weekly does stick out or the daily is not in sync with the weekly or monthly.I feel that further practise will make this process feel Natural.
  • #4,068
  • Jan 19, 2011 11:39am Jan 19, 2011 11:39am
second and last probe for today..it was another breakeven trade...
4hr look
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...c-846478050e73

entry
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...a-c0c098e2ca33

so with the last trade it makes
4 losing trades in total of 18 pips+commission
2 break even..
-------------------
total 6 trades for 3days with 18 pips loss
  • #4,069
  • Jan 19, 2011 10:33pm Jan 19, 2011 10:33pm
Quoting nomask
second and last probe for today..it was another breakeven trade...
4hr look
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...c-846478050e73

entry
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...a-c0c098e2ca33

so with the last trade it makes
4 losing trades in total of 18 pips+commission
2 break even..
-------------------
total 6 trades for 3days with 18 pips loss

Again thank you very much nomask, I personally love your charts, going through 300ish you have posted so far and I've got to say your way of looking at the market suits me very well and I like your rule of opening initial position. I tend to overtrade too which many days results in less than what I acquired with my first set up if not a loss.

I think master Graeme have taught us most of the major concepts so far (the car)
I think of your inputs as a way for me to learn to drive that car another way. (another perspective?)
  • #4,070
  • Jan 20, 2011 1:43am Jan 20, 2011 1:43am
Quoting wangyue22
Again thank you very much nomask, I personally love your charts, going through 300ish you have posted so far and I've got to say your way of looking at the market suits me very well and I like your rule of opening initial position. I tend to overtrade too which many days results in less than what I acquired with my first set up if not a loss.

I think master Graeme have taught us most of the major concepts so far (the car)
I think of your inputs as a way for me to learn to drive that car another way. (another perspective?)
thx a lot wangyue..hope you guys can implement my trading experiences and ideas into your trading style..
imho what makes this thread best is that Graeme showed us something noone bothers to teach or even mind..
I can come up with tonnes of entry,exit methods but not the Graeme's thinking..
so all we need is mastering on a decent entry method and combine it with Graeme's teachings..
I just started my day 30 mins. ago and wanted to share how i feel about the market now..(I do the pretty much same thing everyday)
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...9-745d3c40ab81
  • #4,071
  • Jan 20, 2011 4:36am Jan 20, 2011 4:36am
hallo,

@ graeme or anybody who like to answer this:

i tried to follow the entry at lowest risk strategie in the last 2 weeks. i maneged to fix some positions in the market, but at the price of beeing glued to the screen. this burns me out and i can not do this any further given that i have a day job.

so my new strategy is to enter at higher risk, folowing only what the weekly, daily, and 4h chart tells me. the stoploss is up till around 100 pips. position 100 units at 0.1 euro per pip. (still on demo)

i see this advantages:
- get rid of the market noise
- it takes around 2hours a day to make the entrys
- i manage to diversify more in diferent markets. in the 5min chart my attention was maxed out at 2-3 pairs.

so i will star this from today and will report my observations in 1-2 weeks.

my question: is this prone to fail? or what must i pay attention that this will work?

btw. i had no big succes to trade break outs because the ranges, especialy in the eur-usd are overlaping so much that i got kicked out few hours later.

thank you for the best thread on FF!
  • #4,072
  • Jan 20, 2011 6:08am Jan 20, 2011 6:08am
Quoting alpiner
hallo,

@ graeme or anybody who like to answer this:

i tried to follow the entry at lowest risk strategie in the last 2 weeks. i maneged to fix some positions in the market, but at the price of beeing glued to the screen. this burns me out and i can not do this any further given that i have a day job.

so my new strategy is to enter at higher risk, folowing only what the weekly, daily, and 4h chart tells me. the stoploss is up till around 100 pips. position 100 units at 0.1 euro per pip. (still on demo)

i see this advantages:
- get rid of the...
every trading style has pros and cons its all about how it suits you..
and imo all you need is a decent entry method something you know very well,discipline and patience ...

update to my previous post
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...3-e767185068c0
  • #4,073
  • Jan 20, 2011 6:35am Jan 20, 2011 6:35am
@nomask

btw. here is something that makes me think for a while:

diferences in broker charts or the time the candles are created.

here is my chart 4h of the same move, but look at the last candles, so much diferent, i gues because of another timezone. this chart is from netdania.com and the start the day at 0:00 GMT. the question is what is better? GMT or EST?
or does it matter anyway...dont know yet...




update to my previous post
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...3-e767185068c0[/quote]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: e-u 4h netdania.jpg Size: 106 KB
  • #4,074
  • Jan 20, 2011 6:55am Jan 20, 2011 6:55am
Quoting alpiner
@nomask

btw. here is something that makes me think for a while:

diferences in broker charts or the time the candles are created.

here is my chart 4h of the same move, but look at the last candles, so much diferent, i gues because of another timezone. this chart is from netdania.com and the start the day at 0:00 GMT. the question is what is better? GMT or EST?
or does it matter anyway...dont know yet...



update to my previous...
[/quote]
through my experience i can easily say its not a big problem at all...am i getting enough 4hr signals throughout a week?
if the answer is yes then there is no problem..
check out the chart with my demo and live account...
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...0-676951acdc37

p.s:i prefer gmt only because im in a gmt zone (gmt+2)...but this week the only valid setup occured was in est time while i was sleeping..
  • #4,075
  • Jan 20, 2011 7:14am Jan 20, 2011 7:14am
Hi Nomask, what is this number in your charts? (the circled one in the attachment)
Thanks

Quoting nomask
second and last probe for today..it was another breakeven trade...
4hr look
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...c-846478050e73

entry
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...a-c0c098e2ca33

so with the last trade it makes
4 losing trades in total of 18 pips+commission
2 break even..
-------------------
total 6 trades for 3days with 18 pips loss
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-01-19_1927.png Size: 57 KB
  • #4,076
  • Jan 20, 2011 9:55am Jan 20, 2011 9:55am
entered a short and moved to b.e...
signal on 4hr
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...b-f343b4a2eb90

entry on 5 min
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...d-996f1f603d45
  • #4,077
  • Jan 20, 2011 9:56am Jan 20, 2011 9:56am
Quoting bluedot
Hi Nomask, what is this number in your charts? (the circled one in the attachment)
Thanks
its just a candle clock..shows the remaining time to complete the candle
  • #4,078
  • Jan 20, 2011 11:17am Jan 20, 2011 11:17am
Quoting alpiner
hallo,

@ graeme or anybody who like to answer this:

...
my 2 pips worth:

- place strategic stop levels instead of random some fixed pip level
- choose your 2 hour trading window and stick with it atleast for a month or two. I am still exploring this. For me, 00 gmt works best but seems to affect my position at 6am or 7am gmt candle. Perhaps london open might be a better window to explore.
- document the steps you will go thru to analyze the market during the first 30 mins. Make it a routine !
- Decide what PA (chart patterns/entry methods) you should focus on. This should not be more an 5-6 entry methods imo and try not to use the same setup for all open positions (I call this statistical diversification). Later on, you could cut down to only one or two entries based on your trading performance combined with statistics for that pair (pair dna).
- Create a good trading log of setups, entry and exits and take a lot of screenshots like nomask to help you analyze the market after the fact and learn from your mistakes. Consider trading as a journey and not a race to riches or to bring food on the table. Build a passion for it and success will come knocking.
- focus on position size and spread out the risk across multiple pairs.
- trade always in the hindsight of weekly and monthly and keep an eye on Hourly candle during entries
- never get complacent and take random entries just to participate in the market or because your risk (position size) is low.... I did a lot of that and consistency becomes hard to measure.
- manage your anticipation and pnl expectation appropriately i.e. have patience and don't drink coffee while trading!

Hope this helps.
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,079
  • Jan 20, 2011 11:26am Jan 20, 2011 11:26am
Quoting nomask
thx a lot wangyue..hope you guys can implement my trading experiences and ideas into your trading style..
imho what makes this thread best is that Graeme showed us something noone bothers to teach or even mind..
I can come up with tonnes of entry,exit methods but not the Graeme's thinking..
so all we need is mastering on a decent entry method and combine it with Graeme's teachings..
I just started my day 30 mins. ago and wanted to share how i feel about the market now..(I do the pretty much same thing everyday)
http://www.screencast.com/users/noma...9-745d3c40ab81...
Hi nomask et al,

just want to share something I found here on FF that would help with the timeframe switching. Indicator is called Recent Candles developed by member named "hanover" ...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=159644

I found it quite useful when dealing with 20+ pairs.

Here's my chosen setup going forward: 5/10/200 ema, weekly pivot, daily open, and 33/50/66% retrace and recent candles.

p.s. I might replace weekly pivot indicator with Weekly and Monthly open indicator but unable to find a single indicator that would draw daily/weekly/monthly open lines.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture_021.jpg Size: 113 KB


EDIT: I have decided to move away from pivots and FIB retracement levels as they simply clog my mind and restrict/limit my 'psychic' ability to shoot for infinite yield.
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,080
  • Jan 20, 2011 11:40am Jan 20, 2011 11:40am
Hi Everyone,

As a side project, I’ve been working on some statistical analysis using the past 6 years of weekly price data to gain some insight into weekly behavior. I will post more when finished with this project, but here is a sample of my findings:

For EURUSD:
Summary of range:
Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
0.00920 0.02008 0.02605 0.02871 0.03295 0.13550

So the average (mean) range is 287.1 pips … and 50% of all of the weekly ranges are between 200.9 and 329.5 pips.

If its an up week, then there is a 69.5% chance of closing within the top 30% of the range. Ex: if weekly range is 300 pips, then there is a 69.5% chance of closing within 100 pips of the high

If its an up week, then there is a 50.6% chance of closing within the top 20% of the range.

If its an up week, then there is a 26.8% chance of closing within the top 10% of the range.

So there is a better than 50/50 chance of closing within 20% of the weekly range’s high if an up week. This proves mathematically that its best to hold till the week’s close if long. If price was normally distributed for the weekly range, then it woudl be 50/50 chance of closing in the middle of the weekly range.

I want to expand this to other pairs, and also to define an uptrend (if price above 5 and 10 week ema, and 5 ema > 10 ema) for example … my intuition is that the probabilities will be higher of closing near the high of the week in an uptrend … but I need to test this statistically.

Regards,
EZCurrency
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