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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #269,061
  • Jan 19, 2011 2:37am Jan 19, 2011 2:37am
In that previous 4hr/daily swing hi running up to 6093, and above the current trend hi (previous 1hr/4hr swing hi zone) is the 76.4% of the main 6297-5343 4hr/daily/weekly swing @ 6072.

G/L
ex member
  • #269,062
  • Jan 19, 2011 2:47am Jan 19, 2011 2:47am
Quoting vilas
...written that the best way for Newbies to make money was to...
I reckon if i was advising noobs now i would suggest an indicator-free simple London breakout strategy. Break high - go long. Break low, go short. Use Bobokus/Simone fibs on daily-high low swing for targets and support/resistance.

Works well most of the time for 20-50 pips on GU and EU around the UK open and very easy to get your head around!
  • #269,063
  • Jan 19, 2011 2:48am Jan 19, 2011 2:48am
Quoting soulfly
First problem is overleverage.
Might have the right direction, but stopped out before the real action begin.

Reading the EURUSD thread on this forum, FXstreet etc.
a tipical trade for me today would have been to go long about 1.6040 when people start selling etc.

trading when there is no real trend, just to take trade.
Sort of gambling problem, always need to have a active trade going.

I think today is the first day I have not taken any trades.

So to summarize:
Just bade despo trading to win back what I lost.

I dont think I am the only one...

It sounds like you need to step away from trading for a while.

I'd forget traditional money management methods, they offer false security especially for someone like yourself who is on a long-term losing streak anyway.

The books say "only risk 2%" of your account, and so most online courses and forums. But that doesn't work if you start off on a loosing streak and your balance starts to shrink, just do the maths, the winners get progressively weaker if you constantly base their risk and reward off a % of the account.

Instead work out what you as individual are prepared to lose over an entire year, be it $1,000 or $10,000 - you need to establish what you can afford to lose.

The above figure needs to be real because you have a high chance of wiping it out.

Now split that figure across the year so you can afford to trade once a day, that tells you your risk for the day. For example a $2,500 account will allow you to risk around $12 per day.

Your risk 'allowance' will tell you what type of account you use, micro, mini or full lots.

Write yourself rules based around this and only allow yourself to risk up to and NOT beyond your daily risk level... even if that means just ONE trade a day!

If you're a gambler at heart I urge you to grab a micro account, throw $100 at it and play with it every single minute of the day until your bored, that account should last you a long time and can be your 'throwaway' or learning edge.

For you a demo sounds highly unlikely as you like to play with real money, I never really liked the demo for that reason myself.

Now you've sorted out your risk tolerance you need to start focusing on your system, read, read and read some more, gleam as much good information from the winners on this forum as you can. Another thing to try is if you're losing 80%+ of your trades, ask yourself why? Just a thought, how about doing the EXACT opposite of what you do now, does that work? Be inquisitive, trial and error.
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #269,064
  • Jan 19, 2011 2:56am Jan 19, 2011 2:56am
How significant is the double top on 1hr at 6036? Where do the buy the dip players live ..will this put them off?

Consolidation now - slightly bearish on the lower t/f's.

Uk data at 0930am gmt.

G/L
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ex member
  • #269,065
  • Jan 19, 2011 2:57am Jan 19, 2011 2:57am
Quoting Jazznos
I reckon if i was advising noobs now i would suggest an indicator-free simple London breakout strategy. Break high - go long. Break low, go short. Use Bobokus/Simone fibs on daily-high low swing for targets and support/resistance.

Works well most of the time for 20-50 pips on GU and EU around the UK open and very easy to get your head around!
London breakout and other such simple things work well - only trick is Money management and risk control.
Must investigate Bobokus/Simone fibs as you say ! Any info on that ? Where ? Thanks.
  • #269,066
  • Jan 19, 2011 2:59am Jan 19, 2011 2:59am
Quoting bbmac
G/M,

Cable finds support overnight in the previous 1hr/4hr swing hi zone (previous resistance) confluence with 38.2% 5716-6059 1hr swing, (yesterday's hi.) The pullback lo there has seen a further run up to 6036 where any further upside progress has been curtailed for now by supply.

Uk Employment data @ 0930am gmt...
Hi bbmac,
Nice analysis. Isn't is Unemployment data which I read @ FF cal?

Last release was negative.
Do you have any hint regarding unemployment there during last month, you're from UK aren't you?

I'm holding long since 5947.

Thank you.
  • #269,067
  • Jan 19, 2011 2:59am Jan 19, 2011 2:59am
...a sound piece of advice.

Soulfly: Yeah, running a micro account may lead you to say but it will take an age to make any real money. Perhaps, but the lessons learnt with money that you CAN afford to lose, are invaluable when dealing with money that you CANNOT afford to lose.

FF is full of different strategies and traders, and so I can only say that if you are about to follow one or two consistently good traders, chose from those that use what to you, are simple methods. We all think differently, and so have different methods and different tolerance bands.

Depending on your personal fiscal situation, I would urge you to place into a micro account a sum that whilst not affecting your daily budget in the 'real' world, is still enough that you would prefer not to lose it. $100 is nothing to some, and lot to others, so I make no comment on deposit level.

Anyway, good luck, and as a one trader is apt to say here from time to time, welcome to the asylum.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #269,068
  • Jan 19, 2011 3:04am Jan 19, 2011 3:04am
Quoting gsantri
Hi bbmac,
Nice analysis. Isn't is Unemployment data which I read @ FF cal?

Last release was negative.
Do you have any hint regarding unemployment there during last month, you're from UK aren't you?

I'm holding long since 5947.

Thank you.

Hi, no advance clues here re un-emp claimant count / un-emp rate unfortunately. G/L with trade.
ex member
  • #269,069
  • Jan 19, 2011 3:07am Jan 19, 2011 3:07am
Uk Boe Mpc member Posen speaking at 12 midday gmt...he is an Uber dove and has sent £ down before now with his comments...keeps voting for no rate hike and £50billion more Qe.

G/L
ex member
  • #269,070
  • Jan 19, 2011 3:09am Jan 19, 2011 3:09am
I think there will be a lot of players on the sidelines waiting to find a place to buy the dip and join the uptrend, but perhaps the short trerm direction may be influenced by the un-emp data and Posen. If un-emp continues to rise it limits the chance of a rate hike/early rate hike to help check inflation, as may hinder recovery.

G/L
ex member
  • #269,071
  • Jan 19, 2011 3:10am Jan 19, 2011 3:10am
Stochastics pointing down on the 1H. 2 bearish Heikin Ashi candles so far. There is news out in 30 mins so need to be careful. As soon as price drops below 1.60 will place SL to BE. See how it goes.

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You've got to be IN IT to WIN IT!
  • #269,072
  • Jan 19, 2011 3:11am Jan 19, 2011 3:11am
Chilling with Simply Red greatest hits here just waiting for next hi-prob opportunity....no pressure...just gotta wait.

G/L
ex member
  • #269,073
  • Jan 19, 2011 3:17am Jan 19, 2011 3:17am
Quoting bbmac
Hi, no advance clues here re un-emp claimant count / un-emp rate unfortunately. G/L with trade.
Ok Thanks.

Quoting gsantri
remaining profit locked amended +53 @1.600
Closed long GU +56, EU +77.

Flat now looking for another setup.
  • #269,074
  • Jan 19, 2011 3:32am Jan 19, 2011 3:32am
Got spiked out at BE but no problem. The higher it goes the better discount on the short next time. Will be annoying if it drops from here. Lets see what happens.
You've got to be IN IT to WIN IT!
  • #269,075
  • Jan 19, 2011 3:33am Jan 19, 2011 3:33am
Quoting 45Condor
...a sound piece of advice.
Thank you.

Soulfly: take a look at this journal - http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=70069

It's simple to follow, simple to execute and from what I can see overtime it's profitable - the journal owner is also very accommodating.

That's the sort of thing you want to be following and trying even if it's just on a small scale.
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #269,076
  • Jan 19, 2011 3:34am Jan 19, 2011 3:34am
Quoting Ifty
Got spiked out at BE but no problem. The higher it goes the better discount on the short next time. Will be annoying if it drops from here. Lets see what happens.
Same here, that was quite a spike, very sudden, thankfully no slip here at B/E.
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #269,077
  • Jan 19, 2011 3:39am Jan 19, 2011 3:39am
This is what I am see-ing near term 1hr atm.... 38.2% of the pullback lo 5930 to 6036 providing the demand atm, off that 1s test of the LH spike at 6036 . Bearish-mixed on lower t/f's atm.
G/L
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ex member
  • #269,078
  • Jan 19, 2011 3:43am Jan 19, 2011 3:43am
Quoting Bleek
Same here, that was quite a spike, very sudden, thankfully no slip here at B/E.
Sometimes I think to myself that my SL's are put to BE to quickly (making my broker happy etc etc) but that doesn't matter to me whatsoever. The most important thing is to protect my account as much as possible and keep on banking my pips on O/B or O/S conditions. Works quite well so will carry on doing it that way.
You've got to be IN IT to WIN IT!
  • #269,079
  • Jan 19, 2011 3:45am Jan 19, 2011 3:45am
Quoting Ifty
Sometimes I think to myself that my SL's are put to BE to quickly (making my broker happy etc etc) but that doesn't matter to me whatsoever. The most important thing is to protect my account as much as possible and keep on banking my pips on O/B or O/S conditions. Works quite well so will carry on doing it that way.
Nearly 30% of my trades are B/E! I use a very tight 15 pip stop, but it makes me feel ultra confident in every trade because I know EXACTLY how much I stand to lose.
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
  • #269,080
  • Jan 19, 2011 3:50am Jan 19, 2011 3:50am
Quoting Ifty
Sometimes I think to myself that my SL's are put to BE to quickly (making my broker happy etc etc) but that doesn't matter to me whatsoever. The most important thing is to protect my account as much as possible and keep on banking my pips on O/B or O/S conditions. Works quite well so will carry on doing it that way.
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