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Sonic R. System

  • #16,801
  • Jan 17, 2011 9:03am Jan 17, 2011 9:03am
Quoting odges
EDIT: TP1 hit
Nice aud usd trade ,especially good volume lines for long setup
Great long wave,nice sonic r trade
  • #16,802
  • Jan 17, 2011 9:05am Jan 17, 2011 9:05am
Quoting nando_rich
Hi:

Here a potencial oportunity short on EU.

Just my opinion.

Regards.
Wave count canceled...It's the new wave count...

Of course it's only an example. It is not a good idea trade now. It's near of the london close and the volatility is very slow for the US bank holiday.

Regards.
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"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #16,803
  • Edited 11:10am Jan 17, 2011 10:56am | Edited 11:10am
Quoting nando_rich
Hi:

Here a potencial oportunity short on EU.

Just my opinion.

Regards.
Te order would be canceled. Out of hours allowed.
"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #16,804
  • Jan 17, 2011 7:44pm Jan 17, 2011 7:44pm
On board after reading for about a 3 months, page is favorited and im making this work not matter what! ill try my hand at posting a trade setup in advance if i see one tonight. Only watching the eur/usd for now so as not to get overwhelmed.
  • #16,805
  • Jan 17, 2011 8:13pm Jan 17, 2011 8:13pm
Quoting traderathome
EU:

A short trade is a trade with the trend. Huge volume on a price dump started the New Year. And last week also huge volume sent prices back up. What is going on, you say?

A bit of speculation on my part, but all this volume....the heaviest in a couple of years, is not for nothing! This is making a major long term reversal from up to down. It started back last November. And a good part of November, all of December, and so far this month, the price is in a range....where some pretty substantial positions are being reversed to shorts.
A short trade from a longer TF is valid, but from micro level...definately
not. Volume...we are not sure if its for buy or sell, only time and price will tell.

If all the volumes on M15 was for sell....EU rallied from 1.30 to 1.3450...thats 450 pips! Don't tell me big boys were shorting all the way.
The reason it rallied is because of Euro news, but thats crap for you.
  • #16,806
  • Jan 17, 2011 8:20pm Jan 17, 2011 8:20pm
Quoting nando_rich
Yes, I agree with you. I assume my mistake and learn the lesson for the future. I just wanted to share it with others Sonikers to not repeat what I did. I've been doing backtesting with the simple rules TAH repeated every week, in 3 pairs (EU, GU, EJ) and not worth leaving the rules and trading.He plan drawn some conclusions, it is a pity my poor English Because it could make a great post on how to make money with Sonic in a mechanical system with a very controlled risk, but I have enough fluidity to make me understand.
A system never fails, its the trader that ignores the rules and blames
the market. While you were shorting others on this very thread very
trading long and were out with +ve pips!

Trading without a SL is a disaster, unless ofcourse you have a plan.
  • #16,807
  • Jan 17, 2011 8:25pm Jan 17, 2011 8:25pm
Quoting traderathome
I agree with your intent....100%. Stick to prime time SonicR. Use a SL.

But for the record, for the past 8 weeks (this week excluded) I have 58 trades (about 7.25/wk) for 3,689 pips (about 461/wk) with 55 trades positive and 3 trades (still running) that could very well turn out that way too!
Depends on how many pairs too....if you add more pairs, you can easily
make over 1,000+ pips/week. Adding more pairs means having enough
capital, enough time to monitor each pair and so on.....
  • #16,808
  • Jan 17, 2011 8:31pm Jan 17, 2011 8:31pm
Quoting traderathome
GU:

Relative to the dollar, whither EU goes, GU can not be far behind. GU is setting up a Head & Shoulders pattern on the Weekly chart, with a target of 1.4400.....a nice downside trend to coincide with EU moving lower.

But right now, big money needs time and price altitiude to best unload longs and build their short positions for the New Year, hence the move up these past two weeks.

But again, speculation on my part. However, you have to wonder about so much volume! The last two weeks of volume have been almost more than any full month of...
EJ was predicted 88.00, then again 120+....so its all speculation, everyone
does on a daily basis.

Volume is just another indy and like any other dazzling indys, has
its flaws.
  • #16,809
  • Edited 1:10am Jan 18, 2011 12:28am | Edited 1:10am
Quoting kevinchan
Depends on how many pairs too....if you add more pairs, you can easily
make over 1,000+ pips/week. Adding more pairs means having enough
capital, enough time to monitor each pair and so on.....
For the record, kevinchan, it is 4 pairs I primarily trade....EJ, EU, GU and GJ.....thats all! And EVERY trade was posted on this thread....the initiation post, the closing post and sometimes update posts in between.

I could just make a single post when my trades are over. But I took the view of posting with full disclosure from the start of each trade, and posting thru to completion...pleasure or pain! I am not a "hot shot", making every call perfectly. I have entered trades and screwed up. But I have posted thru to completion on them anyway. And I bet I have contributed to this thread by doing so.

But, you know what? If people here would like me to cease and desist posting trades as I have been, all they have to do is say so. I will stop posting them. If they would like me to stop posting "outlooks" and "opinion" posts, all they have to do is say so, and I will stop. In which case I would just post my completed trades....55 wins, no losses in the last 8 weeks. And how would that contribute to the thread?

As for the Volume indicator(s), your statement "Even the volumes deceive!" is a bit harsh. We could say that about EVERY indicator, because at any time, and without any beforehand indication, price can suddenly move significantly in the opposite direction. People with intent, and money to back that intent, decide prices....not indicators. ALL INDICATORS display only "after the fact" data. As a result we sometimes get a good WAVE and price still goes opposite, or we get a crappy/invalid WAVE and price goes anyway. Volume indicators, like the Dragon and like exhibited WAVEs, are just pieces that contribute to seeing part of the overall puzzle. The obvious should not need to be stated, but here it is anyway....

No matter how clear a picture we have of that part of puzzle shown to us by the Dragon, WAVE, volume, etc., we still cannot see what is yet to come. People with a lot of money will decide that, not indicators. And they will decide that based on how they best see making profits, whether that be consistent with "news", or not.

We look to indicators to show us a particular pattern, out of the many possible, because we know that the probability for that particular pattern is better than 50% that the pattern will complete in a certain way. It is the best we can do to "see into the future". Indicators never "deceive". It is our attempt to foresee into the future, based on the facts indicators reveal about the past, that is less than perfect.


Regards,
traderathome
  • #16,810
  • Jan 18, 2011 1:05am Jan 18, 2011 1:05am
Quoting traderathome
For the record, kevinchan, it is 4 pairs I primarily trade....EJ, EU, GU and GJ.....thats all! And EVERY trade was posted on this thread....the initiation post, the closing post and sometimes update posts in between.

I could just make a single post when my trades are over. But I took the view of posting with full disclosure from the start of each trade, and posting thru to completion...pleasure or pain! I am not a "hot shot", making every call perfectly. I have entered trades and screwed up. But I have posted thru to completion on them anyway....

I'm very thankful for your posts TAH. You've kept this thread going and without you here us sonic newbies wouldn't have a mentor to ask questions, so please keep doing what you're doing.
  • #16,811
  • Jan 18, 2011 1:55am Jan 18, 2011 1:55am
TAH
We ALL need you here.
We ALL need ALL of your posts
This thread is NOTHING without your contribution
Thank you for EVERYTHING
David

Quoting traderathome
If people here would like me to cease and desist posting trades as I have been, all they have to do is say so. I will stop posting them. If they would like me to stop posting "outlooks" and "opinion" posts, all they have to do is say so, and I will stop.
  • #16,812
  • Jan 18, 2011 1:57am Jan 18, 2011 1:57am
Quoting david4u
TAH
We ALL need you here.
We ALL need ALL of your posts
This thread is NOTHING without your contribution
Thank you for EVERYTHING
David
I agree 100% !
Patience is the key.
  • #16,813
  • Jan 18, 2011 2:05am Jan 18, 2011 2:05am
Quoting david4u
TAH
We ALL need you here.
We ALL need ALL of your posts
This thread is NOTHING without your contribution
Thank you for EVERYTHING
David
Me too...the thread is dead without you...this is obvious
"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #16,814
  • Jan 18, 2011 2:06am Jan 18, 2011 2:06am
GU:

Weekly shows the H&S, so now is a good place for PA to reverse downwards. M15 shows Frankfurt/early euro traders pumped the price and the highest volumes came with the final high prices of their pump.......now we need to see what the London and US PPMs do with it today. Yesterday was a US bank holiday, but US traders should be back in full force today.

We might be blessed with a SonicR short setup on this later today. We'll see.
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  • #16,815
  • Jan 18, 2011 2:26am Jan 18, 2011 2:26am
EU

Maybe the PPM's want to see whole number 3400 first, before loading any short trades.
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  • #16,816
  • Jan 18, 2011 2:28am Jan 18, 2011 2:28am
Quoting traderathome
GU:

Weekly shows the H&S, so now is a good place for PA to reverse downwards. M15 shows Frankfurt/early euro traders pumped the price and the highest volumes came with the final high prices of their pump.......now we need to see what the London and US PPMs do with it today. Yesterday was a US bank holiday, but US traders should be back in full force today.

We might be blessed with a SonicR short setup on this later today. We'll see.
TAH,I need you too.haha!Can GBPUSD go on going up on the trend line?
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  • #16,817
  • Jan 18, 2011 3:05am Jan 18, 2011 3:05am
EJ:

Daily shows yesterday price dropped from a test of SR area. Early trading today has been a partial retrace of the drop, so more drop might be coming.

M15 shows highest trading is at the high end of the price retrace; another indication that traders are more interested in the highs than the lows....closing longs and shorting most likely.

If the fall from the SR area (Daily) resumes, we could get a SonicR short setup.
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  • #16,818
  • Edited 3:41am Jan 18, 2011 3:26am | Edited 3:41am
Quoting ott256
EU

Maybe the PPM's want to see whole number 3400 first, before loading any short trades.
Yes, and higher it seems, in advance of some releases today. Grabbing for the highs before they pull the plug?

They have it back to the area it was at when New Years trading started. And that was where some exceptionally heavy volume plummeted the price. They have it back up now on a lot less volume, so it will be real profitable if they torpedo it on heavy volume again.

With about 4.5 hours 'til a high impact USD release, they have plenty of time, now that they sucked the price back to the highs on low volume, to load up the shorts before they pound it down again.

It looks like, across the board, the Pound and the Euro are simply too high relative to other currencies, but that Big Money is supporting them while taking on positions that will be profitable once they STOP supporting them.

WARNING: Speculation!
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  • #16,819
  • Jan 18, 2011 3:39am Jan 18, 2011 3:39am
Quoting traderathome
EU:

A short trade is a trade with the trend. Huge volume on a price dump started the New Year. And last week also huge volume sent prices back up. What is going on, you say?

A bit of speculation on my part, but all this volume....the heaviest in a couple of years, is not for nothing! This is making a major long term reversal from up to down. It started back last November. And a good part of November, all of December, and so far this month, the price is in a range....where some pretty substantial positions are being reversed to shorts.
Hi TAH:

Please see following daily chart of EU, your chart shows huge volume increase, however my broker' (FXCM) volume seems normal.

In my opinion, the volume is reflecting mostly retail FX traders’ activities, and the volume data is not very reliable sometimes. If we over-interpret the Price Action & volume combination into PPMs, It’s not healthy for objective analysis. The volume (trading activities) increases reflects many scenarios, PPM is one of those, especially on very thin market likes holiday seasons, or early Asian section, but not everyday.
I do believe in PPM, the i-banks and rating agency, they are all criminals. Most of the time, their manipulations are combining News and price actions, in large scale and long period. Does the PA on 15M TF reflecting the PPMs? In my opinion, the chances is very low, at lease, we cannot exclude other scenarios.
Regards
PH
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Attached Image
seeing through
  • #16,820
  • Jan 18, 2011 3:50am Jan 18, 2011 3:50am
Quoting traderathome
For the record, kevinchan, it is 4 pairs I primarily trade....EJ, EU, GU and GJ.....thats all! And EVERY trade was posted on this thread....the initiation post, the closing post and sometimes update posts in between.

I could just make a single post when my trades are over. But I took the view of posting with full disclosure from the start of each trade, and posting thru to completion...pleasure or pain! I am not a "hot shot", making every call perfectly. I have entered trades and screwed up. But I have posted thru to completion on them anyway....
Hi TAH, Sonikers:

I believe everyone here want to learn to be pro trader by sharing our trades and ideas. like TAH does, show detail chart and analysis of every trade are the heart of this thread.
seeing through
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