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Sonic R. System

  • #16,781
  • Jan 17, 2011 4:20am Jan 17, 2011 4:20am
GU:

PA just got hiked, so second WAVE for a short is no more. Time to back off and wait out this consolidation, because we actually have now a WAVE for a long. But personally, I am not so convinced of a long.
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  • #16,782
  • Jan 17, 2011 4:25am Jan 17, 2011 4:25am
hi,

long AU per attached chart

EP@9916
TP1@9966
TP2@0015
SL@9884
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 33 KB
Patience is the key.
  • #16,783
  • Edited 4:42am Jan 17, 2011 4:28am | Edited 4:42am
GJ:

Now is looking like a SonicR short setup....another reason I am not so sure GU is a long play.

Edit: Entered short at 131.38 with SL and TP area marked per added 2nd chart. I have another short running on this from last week with a lower entry.
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  • #16,784
  • Jan 17, 2011 4:35am Jan 17, 2011 4:35am
Quoting odges
hi,

long AU per attached chart

EP@9916
TP1@9966
TP2@0015
SL@9884
Im long also... but with EP @ 9908
Lose small, WIN BIG..
  • #16,785
  • Jan 17, 2011 4:37am Jan 17, 2011 4:37am
Quoting nando_rich
Hi:
I had a short position in the EURUSD since last week with several adds. I'm closing some to minimize risk.

I do not recommend doing anything like that. There is not need to make money with Sonic system. I will not repeat. I risked too much, not to mention the stress I'm assuming in this situation. It is not my style. And still did not finish the trade, I'm still stuck sitting on my hands with EU and GU.

Greetings.
This goes to show what happens when there is no definite plan
and no stop loss. Even the volumes deceive !

Price may come back to your EP, once, twice but NOT always.

Trading without a plan is planning to fail.
  • #16,786
  • Jan 17, 2011 5:10am Jan 17, 2011 5:10am
EU:

A short trade is a trade with the trend. Huge volume on a price dump started the New Year. And last week also huge volume sent prices back up. What is going on, you say?

A bit of speculation on my part, but all this volume....the heaviest in a couple of years, is not for nothing! This is making a major long term reversal from up to down. It started back last November. And a good part of November, all of December, and so far this month, the price is in a range....where some pretty substantial positions are being reversed to shorts.
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  • #16,787
  • Edited 5:39am Jan 17, 2011 5:20am | Edited 5:39am
Quoting kevinchan
This goes to show what happens when there is no definite plan
and no stop loss. Even the volumes deceive !

Price may come back to your EP, once, twice but NOT always.

Trading without a plan is planning to fail.
Yes, I agree with you. I assume my mistake and learn the lesson for the future. I just wanted to share it with others Sonikers to not repeat what I did. I've been doing backtesting with the simple rules TAH repeated every week, in 3 pairs (EU, GU, EJ) and not worth leaving the rules and trading.He plan drawn some conclusions, it is a pity my poor English Because it could make a great post on how to make money with Sonic in a mechanical system with a very controlled risk, but I have enough fluidity to make me understand.

Conclusions:

The backtesting was with the basic rules of the summary of TAH, without noticing S / R volume, high timeframes, Round Numbers, etc. .... just the basics:

Details for backtesting:

-SL: In the 3 rd leg, adjusting LotSize 2% of maximum loss.
-TP: distance between the EP and SL. Ratio w/l 1:1. 2% of profit per trade.
-The second leg have to be in the permits hours.
-The trend line (ema 89) have to be below or inter Dragon for longs (viceversa for shorts)
-If the first trade is positive for a pair that day no more trading in that pair. If the first trade is negative, gives you a second chance if the conditions are.
-Move your SL to BE when the trade reaches 61.8% of the target.

Results:

Approximately 70% of trades positives with a 1:1 ratio is enough to make money. And this without look at other details!! (vol S & R, TF hight, etc)

Examples:
Sept/2010

EU: Positives 12 (60%) negatives 8 (40%) BE 1
GU: Positives 13 (76%) negatives 4 (24%) BE 5
EJ: Positives 11(73%) negatives 4 (27%) BE 7

Totaly: +40% earning for this month. (Average W/L positives +70% negatives -30%)

Oct/2010

EU: Positives 14 (82%) negatives 3 (18%) BE 6
GU: Positives 14 (93%) negatives 1 (7%) BE 6
EJ: Positives 11(64%) negatives 6 (36%) BE 4

Totaly: +58% earning for this month. (Average W/L positives +79,5% negatives -20,5%)

I checked at a few months yet these own rules, but I'll show you a more detailed summary.

Trading is about possibilities. DO NOT FORGET IT!!!

I attached some examples:

Pic1: december trade
Pic2: re-entry trade today EU
Pic3: basic sonic entry today GU

Trade what you see not what you think!!!

Regards.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #16,788
  • Jan 17, 2011 5:23am Jan 17, 2011 5:23am
GU:

Relative to the dollar, whither EU goes, GU can not be far behind. GU is setting up a Head & Shoulders pattern on the Weekly chart, with a target of 1.4400.....a nice downside trend to coincide with EU moving lower.

But right now, big money needs time and price altitiude to best unload longs and build their short positions for the New Year, hence the move up these past two weeks.

But again, speculation on my part. However, you have to wonder about so much volume! The last two weeks of volume have been almost more than any full month of volume in over TWO YEARS!
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  • #16,789
  • Edited 5:54am Jan 17, 2011 5:33am | Edited 5:54am
Quoting nando_rich
Yes, I agree with you. I assume my mistake and learn the lesson for the future. I just wanted to share it with others Sonikers to not repeat what I did. I've been doing backtesting with the simple rules TAH repeated every week, in 3 pairs (EU, GU, EJ) and not worth leaving the rules and trading.He plan drawn some conclusions, it is a pity my poor English Because it could make a great post on how to make money with Sonic in a mechanical system with a very controlled risk, but I have enough fluidity to make me understand.

Conclusions:

The backtesting...
I agree with your intent....100%. Stick to prime time SonicR. Use a SL.

But for the record, for the past 8 weeks (this week excluded) I have 58 trades (about 7.25/wk) for 3,689 pips (about 461/wk) with 55 trades positive and 3 trades (still running) that could very well turn out that way too!

I have begun most trades very light. I have gotten on the wrong side of a number of trades begun before the proper time, and without a SL. Instead of closing them, I added on swings. And I have had to be patient. Also, I have frequently said that I do not recommend this to anyone.
  • #16,790
  • Jan 17, 2011 5:56am Jan 17, 2011 5:56am
Quoting traderathome
I agree with your intent....100%. Stick to SonicR. Use SL.

But for the record, for the past 8 weeks (this week excluded) I have 58 trades (about 7.25/wk) for 3,689 pips (about 461/wk) with 54 trades positive and 3 trades (still running) that could very well turn out that way too!

I have begun most trades very light. I have gotten on the wrong side too often and have added on swings. And I have had to be patient.
If it work for you, wonderful! I do not think that is a successful technique for Sonic newbies (like me). I just wanted to share a simple way of doing things to make money following the rules. On your way to trading I have some questions:

- If you're on the wrong side, you expect the trade back to your EP. Even add in the swings, but what happen if it never returns? In what moment you take a loss? What maximum loss % are you assuming in a single trade?

- What do you mean whith "light trading"? Could you give an example in a hypothetical 10k account?

I think that trading is about to find an efective system (SonicR for example) and fit your personality with good money magament. You find your way, I'm still looking for mine.

Best Regards.
"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #16,791
  • Jan 17, 2011 5:56am Jan 17, 2011 5:56am
could this be THE WAVE?
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Lose small, WIN BIG..
  • #16,792
  • Jan 17, 2011 5:59am Jan 17, 2011 5:59am
Quoting odges
hi,

long AU per attached chart

EP@9916
TP1@9966
TP2@0015
SL@9884
EDIT: TP1 hit
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.gif Size: 33 KB
Patience is the key.
  • #16,793
  • Jan 17, 2011 6:15am Jan 17, 2011 6:15am
EU short

I took this FE.
TP1 @ 1.3250
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  • #16,794
  • Jan 17, 2011 6:25am Jan 17, 2011 6:25am
Another re-entry example.
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"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #16,795
  • Jan 17, 2011 6:33am Jan 17, 2011 6:33am
Quoting nando_rich
If it work for you, wonderful! I do not think that is a successful technique for Sonic newbies (like me). I just wanted to share a simple way of doing things to make money following the rules. On your way to trading I have some questions:

- If you're on the wrong side, you expect the trade back to your EP. Even add in the swings, but what happen if it never returns? In what moment you take a loss? What maximum loss % are you assuming in a single trade?

- What do you mean whith "light trading"? Could you give an example in a hypothetical 10k...
If a trade never returns, then I'd have to take a loss and move on. Not recently, but in the past I have been down as much as over 400 pips. I am making fewer mistakes and managing the ones I do make, much better.

Still, even though a very high percentage of trades come profitable, it is a sucky way to trade....nerve wracking and requiring a lot of patience. I don't recommend it, and I don't think it serves SonicR to start disecting the method.

In plain english, I am trying to stomp out all my bad habits and trade pure SonicR, and only during the approved hours. Just controlling the urge to trade outside of approved hours should eliminate the majority of my past mistakes. But, then there is the issue of using a SL.....
  • #16,796
  • Jan 17, 2011 6:44am Jan 17, 2011 6:44am
Quoting traderathome
If a trade never returns, then I'd have to take a loss and move on....
Now I can understand better your method. Just as what you'd really like to do.


Thank you very much for your honesty!!!
"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #16,797
  • Jan 17, 2011 6:47am Jan 17, 2011 6:47am
Quoting nando_rich
Now I can understand better your method. Just as what you'd really like to do.


Thank you very much for your honesty!!!
I am sincere. That is why I continue to post followups on every trade, even if they run on for weeks.
  • #16,798
  • Jan 17, 2011 6:52am Jan 17, 2011 6:52am
Quoting traderathome
I am sincere. That is why I continue to post followups on every trade, even if they run on for weeks.
I know. I've been reading you long time (since THV thread) and I agree with that. This gives much more value to your posts.

Regards.
"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #16,799
  • Jan 17, 2011 7:01am Jan 17, 2011 7:01am
Hi:

Here a potencial oportunity short on EU.

Just my opinion.

Regards.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #16,800
  • Jan 17, 2011 8:11am Jan 17, 2011 8:11am
EU Short

I closed half @ 1.3280 manually. +35
US Bank holiday so i moved SL @ BE.
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