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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #268,721
  • Jan 15, 2011 3:34am Jan 15, 2011 3:34am
Quoting gsantri
Truly amazing words said about understanding market behavior with a precise and simple imagery, delivered in polite and humble. This can only be out from diligent person with a wise heart.

I think all newbie here should feel represented in expressing gratitude to the seniors, for all the good things they have given.

Thank You Kas, you are a light hearted.
Gosh, thank you Gsantri.
I woke up feeling like a load of old shite...my cars packed up on me...i'm in a right pickle.
Your words have set me back on my feet. Have a wonderful weekend.
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #268,722
  • Jan 15, 2011 6:08am Jan 15, 2011 6:08am
Does Cable have Enough Fuel to Break 1.5900?
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  • #268,723
  • Jan 15, 2011 7:01am Jan 15, 2011 7:01am
lets see if this uptrend holds, been holding long since 1.5446
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  • #268,724
  • Jan 15, 2011 7:31am Jan 15, 2011 7:31am
Quoting PoundTrader
lets see if this uptrend holds, been holding long since 1.5446
Good day to you,

Well done!

I will post my view tomorrow... still running some simulations today.

All the best to you.

Regards
  • #268,725
  • Jan 15, 2011 8:03am Jan 15, 2011 8:03am
Good day to you,

what the heck - got time now... so here goes:

We have entered a possible zone of profit taking and stop hunting. I mentioned GU gunning for 1.5900 on Friday. Never made it. Came close though....

Signs are there for a slight drop / retrace forming on Monday. Cherries are ripe - see chart. Possibly to 1.5834/35 area - which is Friday open. Expect support there.

Trend is up - clearly - no doubt there.

From 1.5834/35 area - we may gun for 1.5908/09 - which is the December high. From there, we will have to see....

Trade well and all success to you

Regards
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  • #268,726
  • Jan 15, 2011 8:21am Jan 15, 2011 8:21am
I think so.. its a big possibility. I am curious how you arrive at that proposal though.
If you like to explain a little .. I would greatly appreciate it.

Thanks:
  • #268,727
  • Jan 15, 2011 9:09am Jan 15, 2011 9:09am
If this report is accurate GBP should head north.
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  • #268,728
  • Jan 15, 2011 9:11am Jan 15, 2011 9:11am
Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you,

what the heck - got time now... so here goes:

We have entered a possible zone of profit taking and stop hunting. I mentioned GU gunning for 1.5900 on Friday. Never made it. Came close though....

Signs are there for a slight drop / retrace forming on Monday. Cherries are ripe - see chart. Possibly to 1.5834/35 area - which is Friday open. Expect support there.

Trend is up - clearly - no doubt there.

From 1.5834/35 area - we may gun for 1.5908/09 - which is the December high. From there, we will have to see....

Trade well...

Dear TT,

you could be quite right. Look at the fibo of this run-up. If she makes a new top of around 5908/11 on Monday morning then the fibo will perfectly fit.

If you move the 0.0% fibo to 5908 then the 23.6% retracement will be slightly above at the Jan. 12 top at 5779.

That could be an potential retracement level fueling the next up move.
Even if no spike to 5908, from the 5888 yesterday down to 5779 a 38.2% extension of the first run-up will bring us up to 1.596x the November 10 low - a tough test level, and further 1.6020/40 the August & October tops (all around the approx. 50% extension).

All a nice weekend,

Seismo

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There are three kind of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.
  • #268,729
  • Jan 15, 2011 1:11pm Jan 15, 2011 1:11pm
Quoting HarriDent
I think so.. its a big possibility. I am curious how you arrive at that proposal though.
If you like to explain a little .. I would greatly appreciate it.

Thanks:

I dont think this guys around anymore,his post is now 6 years old!!
  • #268,730
  • Jan 15, 2011 1:41pm Jan 15, 2011 1:41pm
Quoting numb nuts
If this report is accurate GBP should head north.
Could head north, then again we are hitting some resistance at 1.59 and the sellers have been soaking up the buyers so far. I certainly would not be a buyer at this level, but if you are holding longs from 1.54 there is no reason to cash them in as yet. I am shorting at this level with a SL at 1.5920. If she does break north, I will catch the ride north on the retrace back to 1.5920, but expect some resistance at 1.61 which has a nice confluence of a trendline that we hit when we last visited 1.63 back at the beginning of November.

Sure, fundies say that inflation is rearing it's ugly head which will force the BoE to raise interest rates, but the UK economy is not out of the woods yet with some serious layoffs in the public sector. There will be 2000 redundancies at the Manchester County Council alone over the coming weeks and this is a repeating pattern across the country. The BoE MoM will be an interesting read.

My charts say that we are at a good level to short, but this trade might be short-lived. 1.5650 would be a 50% retrace and we all know that GU likes the 50%.

Who knows what is going to happen! I wish you success with your trading.
  • #268,731
  • Jan 15, 2011 1:56pm Jan 15, 2011 1:56pm
Quoting bbakker
Could head north, then again we are hitting some resistance at 1.59 and the sellers have been soaking up the buyers so far.
Just out of interest - what do you think happens when sellers "soak up" buyers?There's been a 400 pip rally on cable since Monday LO
  • #268,732
  • Jan 15, 2011 1:59pm Jan 15, 2011 1:59pm
Quoting numb nuts
If this report is accurate GBP should head north.

trade the reaction, not the number itself....the number could knock the cover off the ball and it could rise then run into heavy selling....

there is very strong resistance and supply at 1.60

i know im a seller at 1.60
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  • #268,733
  • Jan 15, 2011 2:03pm Jan 15, 2011 2:03pm
Quoting chazzle
Just out of interest - what do you think happens when sellers "soak up" buyers?There's been a 400 pip rally on cable since Monday LO
Price drops... simples. Look at Friday's print on the chart. Usually freaky Fridays have bigger moves than the 78 pip range that we had. People were still buying after the move had happened. We are at a daily/weekly supply level with a month high printed at this level as pointed out earlier in this thread. Slap on the bollinger bands and we have confluencing factors for a short. Does not mean that my short will work out because anything can happen!
  • #268,734
  • Jan 15, 2011 2:12pm Jan 15, 2011 2:12pm
Quoting bbakker
Price drops... simples. Look at Friday's print on the chart. Usually freaky Fridays have bigger moves than the 78 pip range that we had. People were still buying after the move had happened. We are at a daily/weekly supply level with a month high printed at this level as pointed out earlier in this thread. Slap on the bollinger bands and we have confluencing factors for a short. Does not mean that my short will work out because anything can happen!
OK good luck man - but I wouldn't be surprised to see a run on stops to beyond the DEC14 high by at least 20 -30 pips before a retrace , personally I favour cup and handle-with lower part of handle @ 15750
  • #268,735
  • Edited 2:35pm Jan 15, 2011 2:22pm | Edited 2:35pm
Quoting chazzle
OK good luck man - but I wouldn't be surprised to see a run on stops to beyond the DEC14 high by at least 20 -30 pips before a retrace , personally I favour cup and handle-with lower part of handle @ 15750
Patterns also fail. Look at that H&S pattern on the daily that didn't quite complete. Sure levels do sometimes have a fakey hence I don't like trading breakouts and a stop above 1.5950 would be safer considering the drop from that level on the 23rd Nov on the h1.

Let's see what happens next week! I wish you success. There is no luck involved with trading... just stupidity if you're lucky. Plan your trade and then trade to your plan!

Don't forget we have had a 400 pip rally with no significant retrace either (6 daily green candles!). Daily and weekly levels generally hold up quite well!
  • #268,736
  • Jan 15, 2011 2:34pm Jan 15, 2011 2:34pm
Quoting bbakker
Patterns also fail. Look at that H&S pattern on the daily that didn't quite complete. Sure levels do sometimes have a fakey hence I don't like trading breakouts and a stop above 1.5950 would be safer considering the drop from that level on the 23rd Nov on the h1.

Let's see what happens next week! I wish you success. There is no luck involved with trading... just stupidity if you're lucky. Plan your trade and then trade to your plan!
true , true - btw so far failed H&S on D1 looking like the head of new H&S on W1 - first shoulder - week beginning AUG2 high 1.5 pips shy of 1.6 - and not sloping this time - neckline looks like 15370 ( close of week beginning SEP6) just 15 pips away from DEC lows
  • #268,737
  • Jan 15, 2011 2:35pm Jan 15, 2011 2:35pm
GBP/USD is at top resistance as per chart of h1, h4 and daily.
On Friday, PPI Input m/m was in favor of GBP as well as Core Retail Sales m/m , Retail Sales m/m & Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment was against USD. In spite of these 4 news, GBP/USD could not go very higher than high of Thursday. On Friday, it went only 6 pips higher than high of Thursday.
This shows that it is the time of supply of GBP/USD. Big fishes are not gonna open long positions. They will be closing there longs and will be waiting to get just a small sign of short in GBP/USD.
So i personally believe that GBP/USD will go down to 1.5700 within next two days Monday & Tuesday.
  • #268,738
  • Jan 15, 2011 2:38pm Jan 15, 2011 2:38pm
Quoting bbakker
Patterns also fail. Look at that H&S pattern on the daily that didn't quite complete. Sure levels do sometimes have a fakey hence I don't like trading breakouts and a stop above 1.5950 would be safer considering the drop from that level on the 23rd Nov on the h1.

Let's see what happens next week! I wish you success. There is no luck involved with trading... just stupidity if you're lucky. Plan your trade and then trade to your plan!

imo the neckline in 'blue' never actually broke... though there could be another right shoulder in the making with another neckline all labelled in 'red'

however agree with you 100% anything can happen in the market... reaction not prediction
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  • #268,739
  • Jan 15, 2011 2:42pm Jan 15, 2011 2:42pm
Quoting chazzle
true , true - btw so far failed H&S on D1 looking like the head of new H&S on W1 - first shoulder - week beginning AUG2 high 1.5 pips shy of 1.6 - and not sloping this time - neckline looks like 15370 ( close of week beginning SEP6) just 15 pips away from DEC lows
You could also say that an inverted H&S might be forming on the daily. We have made the left shoulder and head and price is now at the neckline. A retrace back to 1.56 to form the right shoulder. Patterns are subjective and don't always complete. Then the cup and handle pattern you pointed out is also a possibility, but that would need to break 1.59 and price needs to rally from there to complete the pattern. I do use patterns but only as confluence.
  • #268,740
  • Jan 15, 2011 2:44pm Jan 15, 2011 2:44pm
Hard to say with the sideways action from Friday if we are consolidating for the next move topside or if market just isn't willing to buy the GBP at this level...

The trade channel we are currently in shows up best for support on an M15 chart.

Sideways action and being above hulls may see a little north side gap come opening bells for the week, and from there rejection at higher levels could see us looking for support on a previously touched area which now shows at the 200EMA on an M15 chart.

Some nice range and moves from last week, will be looking for another grand week in this same sandbox.

Enjoy the weekend!
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