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Nb 1.0 trend trade system

  • #541
  • Jan 11, 2011 4:08pm Jan 11, 2011 4:08pm
Quoting misiek_doopa
Looks like a valid Sell trade on EUR/JPY to me. What do you think?
Im not sure but i think PA should below trigger and trigger pointing down.
Look at something long enough, you will eventually get it.
  • #542
  • Jan 11, 2011 4:15pm Jan 11, 2011 4:15pm
Quoting macman
Hi Bob,

A quick question which I hope has not already been answered.

I know this strategy is your response to the idiotic new rules for US based traders.

Assuming you could still use a hedging etc. account, would you still choose this strategy over the earlier ones?

Best regards,
Very difficult question to answer because without the new regs I wouldnt have been looking to change. However, I had been playing around with the TMA so would I have stumbled into this anyway? Still would have been looking for a way to decrease DD. I knew the markets were getting more volatile and I still would have come to the conclusion that the markets are going to continue to be volatile as compared to pre 2008. The markets could also be more volatile than they have been. The more volatile the harder countertrading becomes. Maybe I would have gone to 300 pips before reentry. Dont know. Sooooooooo ............ We will see. I have not done this long enough to really answer that question. Ask again in 2 months when I can compare the results.
  • #543
  • Jan 11, 2011 4:18pm Jan 11, 2011 4:18pm
Quoting traco1
Ok I understand that, but what I am asking is, do we turn on the EA when we see things about to line up or could we simply say hey we are in an uptrend turn on the EA and simply walk away from the computer ?
Guy I hate to be mean but if you dont understand the system enough as to when to turn on an EA or not I really cant help you. I mean that is why you read the booklets on page 1 post 1. If you cant read a chart and turn on an EA when the signal is given or a setup is seen why are you even trying to trade?????????? Sorry but you have to be able to read a chart to trade.
  • #544
  • Jan 11, 2011 4:21pm Jan 11, 2011 4:21pm
Quoting wtjs1971
Thank you for the explanation bob!.
If we look at the current chart, the price was crossing the TMA RED line (Upper Channel)
however, if we look at the chart at the time you open the trade, previous price was actually not crossing the RED TMA Line (as per rule).
per your explanation, the angle also need to be considered apart from crossing red TMA Line I supposed.

Rgds
WTjS
Actually I never said it has to touch the red or green lines. If you reread the manual I said it needs to be close or touch. What you need is price separation from the 5 MA and then go with the trend. The TMA just does that read for you. That is why all this nonsense about the TMA is unjustified. The 5MA and 240MA are the keys to the system the TMA only determines trend and makes sure you have separation before turning on the EA.
  • #545
  • Jan 11, 2011 4:22pm Jan 11, 2011 4:22pm
Quoting traco1
Im not sure but i think PA should below trigger and trigger pointing down.
The night is long I will watch for a few hours and will see how the price is moving. Tomorrow I will write about what I decided and what it goes. Thx anyway guys .
  • #546
  • Jan 11, 2011 4:28pm Jan 11, 2011 4:28pm
Closed trades
Eur/chf Stopped out at -40
Aud/Usd +94
Aud/chf +54
Cad/jpy +24

Sells
Eur/Aud -50
Eur/jpy -70

Totals for the day
+132
Totals for the week
+138

I closed out the Eur/Chf but set it up to reenter today.
I am riding out the Eur/Aud and Eur/JPY. I still think we are in DT but if we are not price will level and get a retrace back down still. Dont see any other trades for now. Hopefully my school will have its power on today.
  • #547
  • Jan 11, 2011 5:08pm Jan 11, 2011 5:08pm
Quoting nanningbob
Closed trades
Eur/chf Stopped out at -40
Aud/Usd +94
Aud/chf +54
Cad/jpy +24

Sells
Eur/Aud -50
Eur/jpy -70

Totals for the day
+132
Totals for the week
+138

I closed out the Eur/Chf but set it up to reenter today.
I am riding out the Eur/Aud and Eur/JPY. I still think we are in DT but if we are not price will level and get a retrace back down still. Dont see any other trades for now. Hopefully my school will have its power on today.
Hi Bob
Thank you for the explanation about Ea
your blank template is a great tool,and a great idea
I like it 'cause it's suitable to all markets and many traders style

Now..Could you please go deeper into your TP and trailing stop rules?
In the manual you give some different exit tools,but what is your favourite option?

I think this is the KEY to success,'cause even a good sys like this could turn into a loser.

Please could you go deeper into (expected)win ratio % for this system?
and what is your default R:R ratio?

If winning trades are > 50% ,with a RISK:Reward ratio 1:1 we could end up with a profit

but if the winners are let's say 60%,and i.e. we apply an hard stop loss of 50 pips and trail nervously our stops, jumping to break even after 15 pips in profit, we could end up with a loss on the long run

on the higher TF , H1 ,H4 and Daily , drawdowns and money management could make the difference!

so what is the best in your experience?

thx
Account deleted
  • #548
  • Jan 11, 2011 5:20pm Jan 11, 2011 5:20pm
Bob,

There is a setting in TMA Angle indicator,

"UseTMATrue" make that "false".

It will look nicer and will align perfectly with the chart on the main screen.

Thanks,
Kumar

Quoting nanningbob
I have added the 48MA smooth to my screen to mark the Daily trend. When price moves inbetween it and 240 MA, it lets you know that a trend change or consolation stage has started. I also put the TMA angle on the screen. Here is the pic and template.
  • #549
  • Jan 11, 2011 5:31pm Jan 11, 2011 5:31pm
Quoting misiek_doopa
Looks like a valid Sell trade on EUR/JPY to me. What do you think?
It is close to being a setup. I am looking for a short Randy candle and then I will enter the trade. I will post the chart when/if this happens
  • #550
  • Jan 11, 2011 5:47pm Jan 11, 2011 5:47pm
Quoting Matrixxdg
Hey Misiek,
My 2 cents is this. Although it IS below the 240 the TMA is turning flat which tells me we may be in for a correction. Price is above the 48 MA Bob had us add AND, it has tried to break through 108.00 ( a MAJOR WHOLE NUMBER) for 5 hours or so. I personally would not take it until I see the angle of the TMA turn more down like that of the blue arrow I put on the chart.

Like I said...my 2 cents.

MG
Scroll through some charts wtih TMA true on. If the TMA has the angle you are looking for, and price then bounces back to the inner TMA band, the 5 will be too far away to enter the trade. If you wait for the 5 to get on the right side of the trade, the TMA itself will likely have turned back in a direction you don't like.

With the conditions you are putting on the entries, you are unlikely to see many entries at all. I don't know whether your entries would be better or not. Maybe they would, but you would definitely see very few opportunities.
  • #551
  • Jan 11, 2011 5:51pm Jan 11, 2011 5:51pm
Quoting Zuke
It is close to being a setup. I am looking for a short Randy candle and then I will enter the trade. I will post the chart when/if this happens
However...that said...I spot a potential better set up on EUR-USD...again, no need to rush, Ill let it play out and see if I get the signal and then entry candle
  • #552
  • Jan 11, 2011 5:56pm Jan 11, 2011 5:56pm
Quoting Zuke
It is close to being a setup. I am looking for a short Randy candle and then I will enter the trade. I will post the chart when/if this happens
I'm starting to lose my hope. Right now EJ looks more like is going up. But I'm still to go short. There is no point to make a trade without conviction that you have chance of success. Central line of TMA is closing to MA240, and price is betweein MA48 (added by nanningbob) and MA240. It's mean that trend may change and go up.
misiek
  • #553
  • Jan 11, 2011 6:02pm Jan 11, 2011 6:02pm
That chart bob posted with the 48ma as a filter was a 4hr chart. Not sure if that was an accident or not. Also not sure if that's part of the system or just something to play with for now.

thx,
todd
  • #554
  • Jan 11, 2011 6:04pm Jan 11, 2011 6:04pm
Quoting swissforex
Hi Bob
Thank you for the explanation about Ea
your blank template is a great tool,and a great idea
I like it 'cause it's suitable to all markets and many traders style

Now..Could you please go deeper into your TP and trailing stop rules?
In the manual you give some different exit tools,but what is your favourite option?

I think this is the KEY to success,'cause even a good sys like this could turn into a loser.

Please could you go deeper into (expected)win ratio % for this system?
and what is your default R:R ratio?

If winning trades...
At this point, no-one knows the answer to this. The best thing you could do would be to test out several alternatives for yourself. Some of what you decide will depend on whether it's more important to you to have a high winning percentage or to make a lot of money. Higher stop losses typically will increase your winning percentage, but can also decrease your overall profitability.

I've tested this system with stops at the last swing high/low, and with stops 1/2 that distance. It seems to perform better with the tighter stops, even though the the winning percentage drops. But I can also see how it's hard to take those tighter stops. From looking at Bob's results, my guess is that he's using the wider stops in his live trading, but he can certainly answer this for himself.

Basically, I think that any trend trading system should try to follow trend traders wisdom. And that means cutting losses early and letting winners run. So far I've tested with take profit when price crosses to the opposite channel. Right now I'm testing a longer strategy. The idea will be to move to break even when price crosses to the opposite channel, and then to exit the trade when it returns all the way back to the other side. (In a long trade, you would put the EA on when it gets near the bottom channel, go to break even when it hits the top channel,and then exit the trade either when it hits break even or hits the bottom channel). I'll have the results on that probably sometime tomorrow, at least for one pair. I expect that they will be interesting.
  • #555
  • Jan 11, 2011 6:23pm Jan 11, 2011 6:23pm
Quoting misiek_doopa
I'm starting to lose my hope. Right now EJ looks more like is going up. But I'm still to go short. There is no point to make a trade without conviction that you have chance of success. Central line of TMA is closing to MA240, and price is betweein MA48 (added by nanningbob) and MA240. It's mean that trend may change and go up.
misiek
There is some key Aussie Home loans data which may drive EUR/JPY via EUR/AUD so I wouldnt getting a position on EUR JPY until it has shaken out.
  • #556
  • Jan 11, 2011 6:34pm Jan 11, 2011 6:34pm
Quoting Zuke
There is some key Aussie Home loans data which may drive EUR/JPY via EUR/AUD so I wouldnt getting a position on EUR JPY until it has shaken out.
You read my mind. I just wanted to write the same. If Portugal, Germany and Poland get good price for their bonds Euro will be much stronger and it will affect the whole market.
Have a good nigth and happy hunting.
misiek
  • #557
  • Jan 11, 2011 6:59pm Jan 11, 2011 6:59pm
Quoting swissforex
Hi Bob
Thank you for the explanation about Ea
your blank template is a great tool,and a great idea
I like it 'cause it's suitable to all markets and many traders style

Now..Could you please go deeper into your TP and trailing stop rules?
In the manual you give some different exit tools,but what is your favourite option?

I think this is the KEY to success,'cause even a good sys like this could turn into a loser.

Please could you go deeper into (expected)win ratio % for this system?
and what is your default R:R ratio?

If winning trades are...

10. Pg. 36 post 528 I discuss using the TP EA template and EAs
  • #558
  • Jan 11, 2011 7:23pm Jan 11, 2011 7:23pm
Quoting Zuke
However...that said...I spot a potential better set up on EUR-USD...again, no need to rush, Ill let it play out and see if I get the signal and then entry candle
OK...now I have it. Signal generated at 1.30. As well as it hitting the 48 SMA (in orange on chart), this is also the 1.30 pysch level that was previously strong support. If this turns to res then we have a very good chance of a strong move back down. So now I have had the signal, I am waiting for a close of a bearish 5 min Randy (HAS) candle for entry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd short setup 12-1-2011.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #559
  • Jan 11, 2011 7:40pm Jan 11, 2011 7:40pm
Ok..Im in...filled SHORT at 1.2994 SL 1.3034; TP1 1.2934 TP 2 1.2894. Entered after close of bearish Randy candle on 5 min chart. Lets see how it plays out...
  • #560
  • Jan 11, 2011 7:47pm Jan 11, 2011 7:47pm
Oops Forgot to post chart...Im currently -9 (inc. spread) on this trade, but hey we have to post winners and losers right?? lol...anyway, a long way to go with this trade, so not worried
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd short entry 12-1-2011.gif Size: 26 KB
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