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Nb 1.0 trend trade system

  • #481
  • Jan 10, 2011 1:46pm Jan 10, 2011 1:46pm
Quoting Zuke
Potential setup forming on Cable. Price is 20 pips away from the upper band of TMA. I will use my slight tweak on the strat and wait for it to hit the upper band, and then enter on the next downtrend randy candle thereafter. I'll post a chart when/if it occurs.
hmm, this is how my g/u chart looks like.
price is above the 240 ma, therefore in an uptrend.
am i missing something here?
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #482
  • Jan 10, 2011 1:49pm Jan 10, 2011 1:49pm
Quoting nanningbob

9. An experienced trader gives a warning why this system will not work and why you are wasting your time using it. You can read and decide for yourself. P. 28 post 431.
I don't understand. Are you being sarcastic??
  • #483
  • Jan 10, 2011 2:04pm Jan 10, 2011 2:04pm
just overreacting a little. point was just made for those backtesting, they need to use tma true. simple as that.
  • #484
  • Jan 10, 2011 2:38pm Jan 10, 2011 2:38pm
Quoting todd960960
duffy, didn't it take 3 trades to finally come out with that win? 1st trade lost 30 pips. 2nd trade lost approx 14pips and then finally the 3rd you say was for a 52 pip win for a grand total of 8 pips profit. Compared to the one trade, 28 pip win using the full stop? Am I missing something here?

thx,
todd
You aren't missing anything at all. I was just about to post about exactly this point. If you have constant lot size no matter what stop loss you set, then these three trades would perform worse than the single winner.

Suppose instead you took your positions based on a percentage of your account that you were willing to lose on the first trade. Say 2%/trade.

On the big stop loss, you have one trade and you end with a gain that's half as much as the amount risked. With 2% risked, you end up being up 1% equity on the trade.

On the series of three trades, the process is a little more involved. On the first trade you get a two percent loss. So your equity is now .98 of what it was to begin with. On the second trade, you also get a two percent loss, so now the equity is .98*.98 = .9604 Then, on the third trade you get a gain that is 3.7 times the amount risked. With 2% bet that means you have a gain of 1.074 on this trade. 1.074 * .9604 = 1.0314

So, for the three trades, you end up making a net of only 8 pips, but at the same time you end up with a net 3.1% gain. With the bigger stop loss, you net 28 pips, but only get a 1% gain out of it.

People pay way too much attention to net pips when there are other significant factors involved in how an account grows. This illustration should show why its at least theoretically possible to make lots of money while having net negative pip gain.
  • #485
  • Jan 10, 2011 3:00pm Jan 10, 2011 3:00pm
Quoting fxvoilaaa
I don't understand. Are you being sarcastic??
Sarcastic...I don't know, but it sure is comical.

Looks like a desperate attempt to discredit someone who showed he made a mistake.

His responses to me used to be technical in nature. But I think he finally realizes that the point I have been making is, in fact, true. Thus, the only way for him to save face is to make up stuff that I said and think. Everyone who can read can see I never said the system won't work and I never said you are wasting your time here.

It is actually very sad to see the narcissism skyrocketing and credibility plummeting, all at the same time.

I know I said I would not post anymore, but it seems the teacher wants to discredit me as much as possible. Have at it, nanningbob. To me, you are just a guy on the other side of the world who I will never meet.

By the way, I really liked the "experienced trader" bit. Nice touch.
  • #486
  • Jan 10, 2011 3:18pm Jan 10, 2011 3:18pm
Quoting rattyo
That kind of trading is the route to the poorhouse in my 6 year journey doing this. To have a long and short US dollars going the same time.

Means the markets are odd. You want to see cable euro aussie all going in the same directions before trading them really.

Not really...
USDJPY not very long ago was the risk aversion currency... thus UJ would fall inline with GU and vice versa.. markets aren't odd they are doing what people in power want them to do.
  • #487
  • Jan 10, 2011 3:52pm Jan 10, 2011 3:52pm
Quoting sidhujag
Not really...
USDJPY not very long ago was the risk aversion currency... thus UJ would fall inline with GU and vice versa.. markets aren't odd they are doing what people in power want them to do.

There always correlations out there. at the moment I can feel a shift in these markets.

you don't quiet get and I don't have time to explain to novices.
rat
  • #488
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:01pm Jan 10, 2011 4:01pm
Quoting rattyo
There always correlations out there. at the moment I can feel a shift in these markets.

you don't quiet get and I don't have time to explain to novices.
So your assumption is that buying UJ and GU is not a good idea because your buying USD and selling USD which negates looking at the other currencies? Is it specific to UJ?

The markets are always shifting I find and never constant... correlations are just that... what the state of the market is at a certain time. Maybe your biased based on going to your "poorhouse".

I try to be unbiased as possible because I know that a short UJ/GU is not a bad thing if your system tells you its ok and it provides positive expectancy during this state of the market. I think NB is good at describing why your logic is flawed.. sometimes its simpler than you think(KISS).

Anyways sorry I'm just a novice

Jag
  • #489
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:04pm Jan 10, 2011 4:04pm
I understand your point now. Thx for such a fine job explaining it.

todd

Quoting duffypratt
You aren't missing anything at all....
  • #490
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:08pm Jan 10, 2011 4:08pm
Quoting aserbfx
hmm, this is how my g/u chart looks like.
price is above the 240 ma, therefore in an uptrend.
am i missing something here?
hello aserbfx,

what you are missing is history in our charts. there are not enough bars to calculate the right MA(240).

Grüße

Mediator
  • #491
  • Jan 10, 2011 4:21pm Jan 10, 2011 4:21pm
Quoting sidhujag
So your assumption is that buying UJ and GU is not a good idea because your buying USD and selling USD which negates looking at the other currencies? Is it specific to UJ?

The markets are always shifting I find and never constant... correlations are just that... what the state of the market is at a certain time. Maybe your biased based on going to your "poorhouse".

I try to be unbiased as possible because I know that a short UJ/GU is not a bad thing if your system tells you its ok and it provides positive expectancy during this state of the...

It all depends on how you trade. I don't hedge so never get in a position where i have to have trades running like that ....
rat
  • #492
  • Jan 10, 2011 5:31pm Jan 10, 2011 5:31pm
I see 6 potential trades for today. I made a mistake in my last report the two trades hit my +3 not my +2 Sorry.

Buys
Cad/JPY
USD/JPY

Sells
Aud/Chf
Aud/Usd
Eur/Chf
Gbp/Usd

I have to remember on Mondays price often doesnt go far so take them profits. Hopefully today see more action. Running late for school gotta run. Let you know before the EURO open which ones I end up taking. Have the AUD EAs on already.

Day +6
Week +6
  • #493
  • Jan 10, 2011 8:05pm Jan 10, 2011 8:05pm
[quote=nanningbob;4302305]I see 6 potential trades for today. I made a mistake in my last report the two trades hit my +3 not my +2 Sorry.

Buys
Cad/JPY
USD/JPY

Sells
Aud/Chf
Aud/Usd
Eur/Chf
Gbp/Usd

Hi Bob,
If I understand your system correctly, then the AUD/USD should be a BUY.
LEARNING HOW TO FISH SO I CAN FISH FOREVER
  • #494
  • Jan 10, 2011 8:11pm Jan 10, 2011 8:11pm
[quote=Mixer;4302632 If I understand your system correctly, then the AUD/USD should be a BUY.[/quote]

Seems you have not quite got it yet
TMA centre line below 240 ma is a sell

EDIT .... maybe you meant the AUDCHF ? .... which should be a buy, but I would suggest is a marginal trade because of TMA / ma relationship
  • #495
  • Jan 10, 2011 8:14pm Jan 10, 2011 8:14pm
I believe that Bob's 1.0 would tell you that it is not a buy even though the bottom TMA has been pierced by price because the light blue line is below the dark blue line indicating a downtrend.

DJ
  • #496
  • Edited 8:44pm Jan 10, 2011 8:29pm | Edited 8:44pm
Quote
Hi Bob,
If I understand your system correctly, then the AUD/USD should be a BUY.

My 2 cents as I understand the rules. It was a SELL almost 3 hrs ago when he posted it. I shorted it then and just closed for +63. The TMA is below the 240 so we are in what I would call a soft DT. As the 240 and TMA is just now starting to turn down.

MG
  • #497
  • Edited 8:57pm Jan 10, 2011 8:45pm | Edited 8:57pm
Quoting Matrixxdg
My 2 cents as I understand the rules. It was a SELL almost 3 hrs ago when he posted it. I shorted it then and just closed for +63. The TMA is below the 240 so we are in what I would call a soft DT. As the 240 and TMA is just now starting to turn down.

MG
If you mean the AUD CHF ? ... it has been a BUY ( marginal ) since 6 Jan on my charts

AUD USD yes definately a sell, though price never actually reached the TMA upper band ( 14 pips away on my charts, so again not the ideal set up )
EDIT ... and I would add the 5 ma trigger line was below the TMA centre line when the trade was triggered, so if following the rules the ea should not have been placed on the chart at that time
  • #498
  • Jan 10, 2011 9:27pm Jan 10, 2011 9:27pm
Quoting Matrixxdg
My 2 cents as I understand the rules. It was a SELL almost 3 hrs ago when he posted it. I shorted it then and just closed for +63. The TMA is below the 240 so we are in what I would call a soft DT. As the 240 and TMA is just now starting to turn down.

MG
Thanks very much for the explanation. Appreciate it.

So let me see if I understand this in it's simpliest form:
If the middle TMA is above the 240 then we are in UT and as such we would like to BUY provided that the 5MA is near enough to the bottom TMA and vice versa for SELL?

Am i missing anything?
LEARNING HOW TO FISH SO I CAN FISH FOREVER
  • #499
  • Jan 11, 2011 1:23am Jan 11, 2011 1:23am
Quoting zznbrm
Sarcastic...I don't know, but it sure is comical.

Looks like a desperate attempt to discredit someone who showed he made a mistake.

His responses to me used to be technical in nature. But I think he finally realizes that the point I have been making is, in fact, true. Thus, the only way for him to save face is to make up stuff that I said and think. Everyone who can read can see I never said the system won't work and I never said you are wasting your time here.

It is actually very sad to see the narcissism skyrocketing and credibility plummeting,...
everything else is a waste of time for the people who are here to read, trade, learn, and/or develop this system.

Thank you in advance from refraining from posting.

Scott
  • #500
  • Jan 11, 2011 2:08am Jan 11, 2011 2:08am
my first live trading with this system and i made 98 pips on AUDUSD . Also have EURCHF in the game but so far its in minus 30 pips . Great work Nannigbob , i feel like a kid in a candy store!
just to figure out what to do with a EC
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