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Nb 1.0 trend trade system

  • #461
  • Jan 10, 2011 5:56am Jan 10, 2011 5:56am
Quoting mallim
Hi All

Some doubt here.

Is this a viable trade? As the 5MA is below the blue TMA.

I am planning to activate for short setup.

Thanks
Ian

I think the 5MA is too far away. May need to wait for a better setup?
  • #462
  • Jan 10, 2011 6:35am Jan 10, 2011 6:35am
To me looking at lots of hrs of candles does that kind of price action scream a great trend or any kind of direction. to me the chart looks like the "Chop Monster" is there and direction is all over the place.

All it says to me is lots of indesicion. Yes the indicators etc and criteria for this system may be all in order to justify a trade but

Id Say NO. I reckon down the Casino could be a better bet than that USDCAD short.

Ive noticed a bit of CAD strength but also dollar strength over the last 4 - 5 sessions. This is why this pair is going nowhere!
rat
  • #463
  • Edited 7:00am Jan 10, 2011 6:45am | Edited 7:00am
I've activated the EA for possible entry into usd/cad. My thought is price is in congestion, and the 5X5 should slowly creep up into a better position if we are to experience downward momentum later. That, and the pin bar doesn't look too shabby. But will this jinx my long usd/jpy

Edit: pulled the plug on usd/jpy just after submitting above for +1. Never made it to +15/+3, so probably shooting self in foot for side stepping the suggested trade mgmt. Rattyo makes good points on u/c, but currently just trying to accumulate some mileage w/ the system.
  • #464
  • Jan 10, 2011 6:48am Jan 10, 2011 6:48am
Quoting MephistoII
I've activated the EA for possible entry into usd/cad. My thought is price is in congestion, and the 5X5 should slowly creep up into a better position if we are to experience downward momentum later. That, and the pin bar doesn't look too shabby. But will this jinx my long usd/jpy

Yes to be Long and short dollar at the same time is possibly not a good idea.
At the moment dollar seems to be strong. But this European sess and last nights Asia sess has seen alot of yen strength aswell and UJ is going nowhere fast unless in 40 mins when the americans get in this all changes. The market is often slow until the US sess starts on monday.
rat
  • #465
  • Jan 10, 2011 9:09am Jan 10, 2011 9:09am
UJ trade from last night hit my SL. No problem, part of the business.

Quoting TheDirtySerb
Just entered UJ long at 83.11. Will post result when it happens. Probably tomorrow morning.
  • #466
  • Jan 10, 2011 9:31am Jan 10, 2011 9:31am
Quoting TheDirtySerb
UJ trade from last night hit my SL. No problem, part of the business.
With using BE @15/3 and jumping SL @ 30
USDJPY long @ 83.12 closed at BE ... +3
GBPUSD short @ 1.5539 closed by jumping stop @ 1.5506 .... +30
  • #467
  • Edited 9:56am Jan 10, 2011 9:39am | Edited 9:56am
Quoting rattyo
Yes to be Long and short dollar at the same time is possibly not a good idea.
At the moment dollar seems to be strong. But this European sess and last nights Asia sess has seen alot of yen strength aswell and UJ is going nowhere fast unless in 40 mins when the americans get in this all changes. The market is often slow until the US sess starts on monday.
Why not Rattyo? Trade each pair on its merits...... If your trading the system and (for example) GBPUSD gives you a legitimate sell signal and USDJPY gives you a legitimate sell signal, why wouldnt you take em both?
  • #468
  • Jan 10, 2011 9:56am Jan 10, 2011 9:56am
Quoting maninjapan
Why not Rattyo? Trade each pair on its merits...... If your trading the system and GBPUSD gives you a legitimate sell signal and USDJPY gives you a legitimate sell signal, why wouldnt you take em both?
That kind of trading is the route to the poorhouse in my 6 year journey doing this. To have a long and short US dollars going the same time.

Means the markets are odd. You want to see cable euro aussie all going in the same directions before trading them really.
rat
  • #469
  • Jan 10, 2011 10:27am Jan 10, 2011 10:27am
Quoting jcs
With using BE @15/3 and jumping SL @ 30
USDJPY long @ 83.12 closed at BE ... +3
GBPUSD short @ 1.5539 closed by jumping stop @ 1.5506 .... +30
Nice take on the gbp/usd. I took the 'hold' route, and received +3 for my efforts. Wish I had been awake on the thrust bar after entry - think I would have grabbed a decent portion of the windfall. I know ... hindsight traders need not apply
  • #470
  • Jan 10, 2011 10:30am Jan 10, 2011 10:30am
I'm still in the UJ trade. I've been testing Steve's ea. It got me in the trade, put in a TP but I don't see a SL. Concequently, I'm still in the trade. I left all the defaults. Shouldn't I be out already? Or should I be changing it?

StopLoss is set to 'previous swing' by default. It's surpased that. Not sure if something is wrong on my end or if it needs to be looked at by the greatest programmer there ever was.. Seriously, I'm loving your ea. Keep up the good work. And this system is by far the very best!!

Tom
  • #471
  • Jan 10, 2011 10:56am Jan 10, 2011 10:56am
Quoting rattyo
That kind of trading is the route to the poorhouse in my 6 year journey doing this. To have a long and short US dollars going the same time.

Means the markets are odd. You want to see cable euro aussie all going in the same directions before trading them really.
When you trade the gbp/usd and sell, you are selling the gbp and buying the usd. When you trade the usd/jpy and buy, you buy the USD and are selling the jpy. You dont have a short/ long situation but buy the USD in both trades.
  • #472
  • Jan 10, 2011 11:03am Jan 10, 2011 11:03am
Well that sucked today. Both trades entered, gbp/usd moved 60+ and usd/ jpy moved 18 and then retraced to hit my +2 so made 4 pips today. Could have made around 50 pips if I had moved my SL up on the gbp/usd. USD/JPY went nowhere. We will see what for tomorrow. Those that took the USD/CAD did ok at 20+ if you move your SL to 0 or +2 you are in a no lose situation. I had thought of taking the aud/usd and didnt but it would have worked too. Tomorrow get to try again.
  • #473
  • Jan 10, 2011 11:11am Jan 10, 2011 11:11am
Yep - I was a bit leery of the usd/cad entry position (would've preferred higher up), but allowed EA to do its thing. Following your suggestion - SL to BE+, maybe it will sprout legs...
  • #474
  • Jan 10, 2011 12:23pm Jan 10, 2011 12:23pm
Quoting TheDirtySerb
UJ trade from last night hit my SL. No problem, part of the business.
Yup, setup was lovely. I recon it should continue up this week after last weeks bullish engulfing candle, but maybe a little more of a retrace first on the back of a strong week is needed.

My gut says next 5x5 cross up a fake and the following cross off a bounce from 82.46ish the one to catch. Judgement/gut feel, I know, not really part of the strat, but still need to use nogen in any system.

JC
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdgif.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #475
  • Jan 10, 2011 12:34pm Jan 10, 2011 12:34pm
Quoting Lazar83
thats the problem , i didnt enter by myself.Sell Ea activated this trade,and i am trying to see why did he activated .i didnt see trigger for that i forgot to turn EA baton off last night
Hi Lazar

Putting all other rules aside, you should only turn on the SELL 5x5 EA when price is above the 5x5 moveing average and visa versa for the BUY 5x5 EA i.e. Bob's intension is to catch the end of the retrace for the next move in the direction of the trend, being the 240MA.

You opened the SELL 5x5 EA when price was below the 5x5 MA line.

JC
  • #476
  • Jan 10, 2011 12:47pm Jan 10, 2011 12:47pm
Same test as usual. Here, I tested for both Stop Loss at 1/2 the high low of the prior swing and Stop Loss at the full high low of the swing.

Stop Loss at Previous High/Low
238 Trades
110 Winners
46% Winning Percentage
.14 Expectancy

Stop Loss at 1/2 Previous High/Low
312 Trades
103 Wins
33% Winning Percentage
.49 Expectancy

If the same set up wins with both SL's, then the R/R should be double on the trades with the smaller stop. And since they win less than the bigger stop trades, that means the expectancy should be less than double. Right? But it's not.

Let me explain with the attached chart. Here the first signal ended up being a winner for the full trade. Stop was 60 and the gain was only 28 pips. This gives an R/R of about .5 for the trade.

With the 1/2 stop, the trade got stopped out on the second bar. Then there is a second entry a few bars later which also gets stopped out. Not looking good. Then there is a third re-entry on the long bar. During this time the 5 has moved up and the previous swing low has moved down. Instead of 60 pips between them, there is only 27 pips. So the stop is now only 14 pips. And because the 5 moved up, the distance to the bottom channel is greater. The win is for 52 pips instead of only 28 pips. This gives a R/R for the one trade of 3.7.

Suppose you were risking 2% of you equity on each of these trades. With the larger stop loss, you would gain just under 1% on the trade. With the smaller stop loss, if you did take all three trades, you would make about 3.1%. Of course, if you bailed after the first two losses, you would be down just under 4%.

I'm attaching both the chart that goes along with the above (too long) explanation, and the equity curves for both methods. The differences are startling. So are the potential drawdowns.
Attached Images
  • #477
  • Jan 10, 2011 12:58pm Jan 10, 2011 12:58pm
Quoting nanningbob
Well that sucked today. Both trades entered, gbp/usd moved 60+ and usd/ jpy moved 18 and then retraced to hit my +2 so made 4 pips today. Could have made around 50 pips if I had moved my SL up on the gbp/usd. USD/JPY went nowhere. We will see what for tomorrow. Those that took the USD/CAD did ok at 20+ if you move your SL to 0 or +2 you are in a no lose situation. I had thought of taking the aud/usd and didnt but it would have worked too. Tomorrow get to try again.
You know that there are always more trades.

Your strat worked perfectly today. It kept you out of loosing trades, kept your equity curve in tact, had you been trading live for a while longer, ready for the 1 in x trade that makes you smile. In time you will be able to trust if the strategy will spit out enough 1 in x trades to cover the negative y in x trades, and more.

JC
  • #478
  • Jan 10, 2011 1:04pm Jan 10, 2011 1:04pm
Quoting mallim
Hi All

Some doubt here.

Is this a viable trade? As the 5MA is below the blue TMA.

I am planning to activate for short setup.

Thanks
Ian

I recon its time to bail on this short or BE in a few hours.

The nice weekly support is not letting this one drift lower.

JC
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcadgif.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #479
  • Jan 10, 2011 1:21pm Jan 10, 2011 1:21pm
duffy, didn't it take 3 trades to finally come out with that win? 1st trade lost 30 pips. 2nd trade lost approx 14pips and then finally the 3rd you say was for a 52 pip win for a grand total of 8 pips profit. Compared to the one trade, 28 pip win using the full stop? Am I missing something here?

thx,
todd
Quoting duffypratt
Same test as usual....
  • #480
  • Jan 10, 2011 1:28pm Jan 10, 2011 1:28pm
Potential setup forming on Cable. Price is 20 pips away from the upper band of TMA. I will use my slight tweak on the strat and wait for it to hit the upper band, and then enter on the next downtrend randy candle thereafter. I'll post a chart when/if it occurs.
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