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  • #921
  • Jan 8, 2011 11:34pm Jan 8, 2011 11:34pm
Hi Dan,

Great Thread and thank you from this Newbie.
Ive finally given in to the idea that I need to trade the dailies as smaller time frames just kicked me around to much.
Would you mind looking at this pair and sharing your wisdom.
I see an un broken up trend line. Prices have just hit the 50% fib.
Would it be fair to say we'd be waiting for Price Action to go long ?

Cheers in advance....Steve
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #922
  • Jan 9, 2011 2:27am Jan 9, 2011 2:27am
Hello NeoRio, my skype name is: ailis35. Please,join me to your skype room. Thank you,
  • #923
  • Edited 8:47am Jan 9, 2011 8:10am | Edited 8:47am
Quoting Sjr
Hi Dan,

Great Thread and thank you from this Newbie.
Ive finally given in to the idea that I need to trade the dailies as smaller time frames just kicked me around to much.
Would you mind looking at this pair and sharing your wisdom.
I see an un broken up trend line. Prices have just hit the 50% fib.
Would it be fair to say we'd be waiting for Price Action to go long ?

Cheers in advance....Steve
Hi, based on my newbie point of view, I believe it is a great setup with all confluences and likely to reach the 1.0200 level.
However, it's my own personal view, maybe DanUK have another different one.
  • #924
  • Jan 9, 2011 9:59am Jan 9, 2011 9:59am
Quoting Sjr
Hi Dan,

Great Thread and thank you from this Newbie.
Ive finally given in to the idea that I need to trade the dailies as smaller time frames just kicked me around to much.
Would you mind looking at this pair and sharing your wisdom.
I see an un broken up trend line. Prices have just hit the 50% fib.
Would it be fair to say we'd be waiting for Price Action to go long ?

Cheers in advance....Steve

There is no trigger candle. i.e., outside bar or pin bar. Id wait too see if an outside bar happens.
  • #925
  • Jan 9, 2011 12:21pm Jan 9, 2011 12:21pm
Hi guys,

Thank you for your messages, it's good to know that people aren't looking at the "potential trades" as signals and are doing their own analysis.

The journey for me is far from over. My biggest hurdle has always been dealing with losses.

In my "normal" working life (i.e. outside of trading!) I am a bit of a perfectionist. When I go into a project I like to know that I have done as much research as possible and planned for everything. I like to make sure things run smoothly and I don't like mistakes. If I can't achieve perfection (as far as is reasonably practicable) I'm not happy.

I like knowing that when my customers want something done right they will come to me. I am proud to know that my customers will choose me above my competitors for that reason. I guess this probably makes me a demanding person to work for but it's just the way I am.

So, when it comes to trading, I don't have that same amount of control over my work. It's something that I am still working on! It's not a matter of money; it's about being right. I was the same when I used to demo trade. If I made a loosing trade I felt it was because I had done something wrong (and on most occasions it is). I still have to come to accept that sometimes things happen that are beyond my control.

Hopefully, that little insight into my peculiar brain will explain why I hate to feel responsible for other people's losses. That being said, I think the messages posted recently about this show that people are thinking for themselves and that they are not taking this thread as a signal service. So I will continue to post and I think I shall take NeoRio's advice and put up a disclaimer at the start of this thread explaining that we are not posting signals!

Regards,

Dan
  • #926
  • Jan 9, 2011 12:26pm Jan 9, 2011 12:26pm
Quoting Sjr
Hi Dan,

Great Thread and thank you from this Newbie.
Ive finally given in to the idea that I need to trade the dailies as smaller time frames just kicked me around to much.
Would you mind looking at this pair and sharing your wisdom.
I see an un broken up trend line. Prices have just hit the 50% fib.
Would it be fair to say we'd be waiting for Price Action to go long ?

Cheers in advance....Steve
Hi Steve,

The thing I particularly like about trading dailies is it gives me freedom to spend my time with my family and friends. I don't have to spend hours glued to my screen! Ultimately, that is why I started trading - for freedom.

AUD/USD - Friday's bar formed a "spinning top" which signals indecision. Price is definitely in the right area for something to happen, but as you said... just waiting for "Price Action" to signal us. Ideally, I would like to see a bullish outside bar closing above 1.000 but we shall have to wait and see what Monday brings!

Regards,

Dan
  • #927
  • Jan 9, 2011 5:41pm Jan 9, 2011 5:41pm
Thx for the reply Dan. I guess whats most important to me in learning this- is being able to correctly ID the trend and have the patience to act accordingly. In the above chart, I do see an uptrend with a pullback. The first thing I think of is how can I trade it !!! Maybe if I drop down to the 4H there will be the bullish bar you speak of, not there ? cool drop down to the 1H Chart...and so on.
For the longest time Ive been trying to make the chart look tradeable, vs taking my time and let the trade opportunity jump out at me. Not sure if that makes sense....

Cheers again for a great thread.
  • #928
  • Jan 10, 2011 2:27am Jan 10, 2011 2:27am
Quoting Sjr
Thx for the reply Dan. I guess whats most important to me in learning this- is being able to correctly ID the trend and have the patience to act accordingly. In the above chart, I do see an uptrend with a pullback. The first thing I think of is how can I trade it !!! Maybe if I drop down to the 4H there will be the bullish bar you speak of, not there ? cool drop down to the 1H Chart...and so on.
For the longest time Ive been trying to make the chart look tradeable, vs taking my time and let the trade opportunity jump out at me. Not sure if...
If you cant see the trigger on a 4hr I wouldnt drop down to the 1 hr for a trigger. Everytime you drop down a TF the trigger becomes less and less reliable.
  • #929
  • Jan 10, 2011 5:56am Jan 10, 2011 5:56am
Quoting Sjr
Thx for the reply Dan. I guess whats most important to me in learning this- is being able to correctly ID the trend and have the patience to act accordingly. In the above chart, I do see an uptrend with a pullback. The first thing I think of is how can I trade it !!! Maybe if I drop down to the 4H there will be the bullish bar you speak of, not there ? cool drop down to the 1H Chart...and so on.
For the longest time Ive been trying to make the chart look tradeable, vs taking my time and let the trade opportunity jump out at me. Not sure if...
Hi Sjr,

I think that makes sense! And I agree; the most important thing to learn is correctly identifying the trend and the correct areas to trade from. Once you know that, you are on your way to success, the actual entry is secondary.

Regards,

Dan
  • #930
  • Jan 10, 2011 6:05am Jan 10, 2011 6:05am
Hello again everyone.

I am favouring the G/J for a short at the moment. Waiting to see if we have an inside bar at close of today and a break of fridays bar tomorrow. There is confluence at around 129.00 (nice round number) with daily resistance and 50% fib retracement.

If the above senario developes, where do I put stop? The obvious place for me would be at 129.50 but I would like your thoughts as I am a relative newbie. However, having seen the comments about concerns of signaling trades, I will make my own judgement based on your knowledge, experience and common sense.

Kind regards
Paul
  • #931
  • Jan 10, 2011 6:15am Jan 10, 2011 6:15am
AUD/USD Uptrending and retraced to 50% fib with daily support and round number at 0.9900. I would like to see an outside bar develop today/tomorrow and break north through 1.0030 to place a long. Again, not sure where stop would be. Your comments would be appreciated.

Regards
Paul
  • #932
  • Jan 10, 2011 1:07pm Jan 10, 2011 1:07pm
I see some potential setups for this week. I will look for further price action.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Per aspera ad astra
  • #933
  • Jan 10, 2011 2:20pm Jan 10, 2011 2:20pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Posting a trade I took this morning with the USDJPY
Reasons are;
1) with the trend
2) retraced to a S/R Line
3) retraced to the 78% Fib level of last swing
4) retraced to a trend line
5) P.Action formed a Pin Bar (More or less)

Please critique: this and let me know if I am on the right track.

Thanks
Always Learning
  • #934
  • Jan 10, 2011 3:06pm Jan 10, 2011 3:06pm
Hi Paul

My only concern would be the ease with which price pushed back up through the prior swing lows on the weekly. I would have expected these to provide a new ceiling for price. Of course this could just be a relief rally. Just my thoughts.

Regards

Paul
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Never underestimate an idiot.
  • #935
  • Jan 10, 2011 3:23pm Jan 10, 2011 3:23pm
Quoting JayTrader
Attachment
Posting a trade I took this morning with the USDJPY
Reasons are;
1) with the trend
2) retraced to a S/R Line
3) retraced to the 78% Fib level of last swing
4) retraced to a trend line
5) P.Action formed a Pin Bar (More or less)

Please critique: this and let me know if I am on the right track.

Thanks
I took this same trade, Jay...looks like we're on the same page. I got around to this pair a little late, looks like you entered about 15 pips earlier than me.

Regards
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #936
  • Jan 10, 2011 3:24pm Jan 10, 2011 3:24pm
Quoting paulwales
Hello again everyone.

I am favouring the G/J for a short at the moment. Waiting to see if we have an inside bar at close of today and a break of fridays bar tomorrow. There is confluence at around 129.00 (nice round number) with daily resistance and 50% fib retracement.

If the above senario developes, where do I put stop? The obvious place for me would be at 129.50 but I would like your thoughts as I am a relative newbie. However, having seen the comments about concerns of signaling trades, I will make my own judgement based on your knowledge,...
I took the GJ short just a little while ago, based on this same analysis...which I also covered in my last analysis video. Did you take the trade, Paul?

Kind Regards,
NeoRio
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #937
  • Jan 10, 2011 5:25pm Jan 10, 2011 5:25pm
Quoting Ihor
I see some potential setups for this week. I will look for further price action.

Attachment
Attachment

Attachment

Based on the charts you posted, there are so many profitable short term trades you could have taken and it's obvious!
  • #938
  • Jan 10, 2011 11:39pm Jan 10, 2011 11:39pm
Quoting NeoRio
I took the GJ short just a little while ago, based on this same analysis...which I also covered in my last analysis video. Did you take the trade, Paul?

Kind Regards,
NeoRio
Hi Neo.

I had an indecision bar yesterday and I would like to see a daily close below fridays bar (around 128.40) to give me more confidence to enter.

I was asleep when you took your trade. But good luck.

Your weekly analysis is very helpful to me, so thanks.

Regards
Paul

PS. Would you mind telling us where you put your stop and the reasons.
Thanks
  • #939
  • Jan 10, 2011 11:53pm Jan 10, 2011 11:53pm
Quoting paulwales
Hi Neo.

I had an indecision bar yesterday and I would like to see a daily close below fridays bar (around 128.40) to give me more confidence to enter.

I was asleep when you took your trade. But good luck.

Your weekly analysis is very helpful to me, so thanks.

Regards
Paul

PS. Would you mind telling us where you put your stop and the reasons.
Thanks
I entered the GJ short early...so your patience was the "right" way to do things! I took the break of Monday's candle body...I should have waited for the break of the wick (in retrospect)...trying to be smart and enter early. Almost got stopped out an hour ago. My stop is at 129.63, above the high of Friday's candle.

Best,
Neo
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Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #940
  • Edited 3:20am Jan 11, 2011 12:06am | Edited 3:20am
Quoting JayTrader
Attachment
Posting a trade I took this morning with the USDJPY
Reasons are;
1) with the trend
2) retraced to a S/R Line
3) retraced to the 78% Fib level of last swing
4) retraced to a trend line
5) P.Action formed a Pin Bar (More or less)

Please critique: this and let me know if I am on the right track.

Thanks
There is a reason why I didnt take a trade on UJ and this is a weekly BUOB. For me is this pair in short-term long trend.
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