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DanUK's Advanced Trend Trading Strategy

  • #901
  • Jan 7, 2011 4:20pm Jan 7, 2011 4:20pm
There's a support zone indicated in the attached chart and the price didn't break through. I would not have take that trade because the support zone is too close from the entry price.
Attached Image
  • #902
  • Jan 7, 2011 4:40pm Jan 7, 2011 4:40pm
Quoting jcalow
Hi

I have been trading for 5 years but am still experimenting with this method. I took a short on GBPCHF last night from 1.4875 but was stopped out for -100 pips. I entered at this level to ensure that .4900 level was broken. I have since noticed that Dan posted yesterday about this potential trade and I believe that our reasons were mostly the same. I thought this looked a good entry. I would be very grateful though if anyone could point out any flaws in my analysis or maybe this was just one of those loosing trades.
I entered the same trade, JC. Technically this looked like a picture-perfect trade...I think it was the NFP that messed us up. Don't beat yourself up over it, those 100 pips that you lost, should have only been 0.5% or 1% of your account. I set my SL above the previous day's candle...so I'm still in the trade currently at -168.

I touch on this trade in my Weekly Analysis video in the next post...

Kind Regards,
NeoRio
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #903
  • Jan 7, 2011 4:40pm Jan 7, 2011 4:40pm
Here is my latest analysis for those interested.

Weekly Analysis

Kind Regards,
NeoRio
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #904
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:11pm Jan 7, 2011 5:11pm
Quoting jcalow
Hi

I have been trading for 5 years but am still experimenting with this method. I took a short on GBPCHF last night from 1.4875 but was stopped out for -100 pips. I entered at this level to ensure that .4900 level was broken. I have since noticed that Dan posted yesterday about this potential trade and I believe that our reasons were mostly the same. I thought this looked a good entry. I would be very grateful though if anyone could point out any flaws in my analysis or maybe this was just one of those loosing trades.
Opening a trade on Friday is not recommended especially if it's NFP Friday. Everything else looks great...
  • #905
  • Jan 7, 2011 7:54pm Jan 7, 2011 7:54pm
Hi everybody. I would like to thank everybody here and specially Dan for sharing his knowledge. This thread has been a tremendous help to a noob like myself (before Septembar 2010 in did not know what FOREX was...lol). Anyway I have attached a chart for EUR/USD. If you all could comment on my support and resistance level lines and please let me know if they are somewhat correct or not that would be greatly appriciated......Thank you.
http://img135.imageshack.us/img135/9761/chart1.gif
  • #906
  • Jan 7, 2011 11:27pm Jan 7, 2011 11:27pm
Quoting jcalow
Hi

I have been trading for 5 years but am still experimenting with this method. I took a short on GBPCHF last night from 1.4875 but was stopped out for -100 pips. I entered at this level to ensure that .4900 level was broken. I have since noticed that Dan posted yesterday about this potential trade and I believe that our reasons were mostly the same. I thought this looked a good entry. I would be very grateful though if anyone could point out any flaws in my analysis or maybe this was just one of those loosing trades.
1)as danmick observe well in post 901, a former minor resistance is broke up and become minor support around 1.4850/80
2)price did not reach the october low zone 1.51 yet
3)is the signalbar a reversal candle ?
does not look like a nice pin or bear engulfing candle and it is still bullish

3 reasons not to enter ? just my 2cent, still learning too
and this tread is a great place to be for... bravo Danuk +
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf.gif Size: 21 KB
patience pays
  • #907
  • Jan 8, 2011 12:39am Jan 8, 2011 12:39am
Quoting mike2007
1)as danmick observe well in post 901, a former minor resistance is broke up and become minor support around 1.4850/80
2)price did not reach the october low zone 1.51 yet
3)is the signalbar a reversal candle ?
does not look like a nice pin or bear engulfing candle and it is still bullish

3 reasons not to enter ? just my 2cent, still learning too
and this tread is a great place to be for... bravo Danuk +

correction: 3) bar is not bullish , i wrongly interpretted the candlecolors of jcalow in post 900
( black is down always on my charts, my mistake)
patience pays
  • #908
  • Jan 8, 2011 2:37am Jan 8, 2011 2:37am
Quoting NaughtyPip
If this pinbar stays the same its looking good for a buy on monday.

With the trend, key level of s/r, 61% fib, round number.

Any opinions?
Hi NP,

Certainly an interesting one to watch. On my feed this did not form as a proper "pin bar" as it did not close within the range of the previous bar. If it had closed as a positive bar (i.e. close higher than open) I think I would have been more inclined to take it.

I do wonder though, is the (up) trend still in our favour? I attach a chart with a couple of trendlines that have been broken. Now, this doesn't necessarily mean change of trend but it does signal that the trend is possibly becoming exhausted. Just something to bear in mind.

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcad.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #909
  • Jan 8, 2011 2:47am Jan 8, 2011 2:47am
Quoting jcalow
Hi

I have been trading for 5 years but am still experimenting with this method. I took a short on GBPCHF last night from 1.4875 but was stopped out for -100 pips. I entered at this level to ensure that .4900 level was broken. I have since noticed that Dan posted yesterday about this potential trade and I believe that our reasons were mostly the same. I thought this looked a good entry. I would be very grateful though if anyone could point out any flaws in my analysis or maybe this was just one of those loosing trades.
Hi jcalow,

Don't beat yourself up about this one too much! I think it caught a few people out. Losses happen, I wish they didn't but it's just part of the game I suppose.

Now, as to things that went against this trade, I would cite the following:

1. The first week back after Christmas is not a good time to trade.

2. NFP Friday.

3. The trigger bar was not perfect (although it was ok).

4. Most importantly - I think we misjudged the trading level. We are in uncharted territory here, with price only recently going so low - so we haven't as much historical data to go on to give us our S/R levels to trade from. Having a second look at this chart and I think we should have perhaps waited for price to make it higher to 1.5100 before deciding. I have attached a chart with my "second look" reasoning!

I should have looked at this a little closer before posting (although I think there was something wrong with me when I made my post about the GBP/CHF as the S/R level I quoted bears no resemblance whatsoever!!!) and this is the reason why I am not inclined to post trade setups... just in case I've made a mistake in my analysis and someone else follows that mistake.

I started this thread to help people learn to trade which I want to carry on doing but I don't want to be responsible for other people’s losses and this mistake reminded me of that so I don't think I am going to bother posting any other trade setups.

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #910
  • Jan 8, 2011 2:49am Jan 8, 2011 2:49am
Quoting danmick
There's a support zone indicated in the attached chart and the price didn't break through. I would not have take that trade because the support zone is too close from the entry price.
This is also true but I don't consider this area to be a "key" level and as such would not have been a deal breaker for me.

Regards,

Dan
  • #911
  • Jan 8, 2011 2:49am Jan 8, 2011 2:49am
Quoting NeoRio
Here is my latest analysis for those interested.

Weekly Analysis

Kind Regards,
NeoRio
Nice work as always!
  • #912
  • Jan 8, 2011 2:56am Jan 8, 2011 2:56am
Quoting iferdous
Hi everybody. I would like to thank everybody here and specially Dan for sharing his knowledge. This thread has been a tremendous help to a noob like myself (before Septembar 2010 in did not know what FOREX was...lol). Anyway I have attached a chart for EUR/USD. If you all could comment on my support and resistance level lines and please let me know if they are somewhat correct or not that would be greatly appriciated......Thank you.
http://img135.imageshack.us/img135/9761/chart1.gif
Hi iferdous,

I'm glad you have found this thread useful!

I've had a look at your chart and I like it - I think you've got the right idea about picking the major support and resistance levels. I would say that I tend to round my levels to the nearest round number, so for instance one of your levels is 1.2890 whereas I have 1.2900. You should also remember that the levels are more often "zones" than "to the pip" lines.

Good work!

Regards,

Dan
  • #913
  • Jan 8, 2011 2:59am Jan 8, 2011 2:59am
Quoting mike2007
1)as danmick observe well in post 901, a former minor resistance is broke up and become minor support around 1.4850/80
2)price did not reach the october low zone 1.51 yet
3)is the signalbar a reversal candle ?
does not look like a nice pin or bear engulfing candle and it is still bullish

3 reasons not to enter ? just my 2cent, still learning too
and this tread is a great place to be for... bravo Danuk +
Hi mike2007,

I think you spotted the major one: "price did not reach the october low zone 1.51 yet"

With regards to the minor support level - generally these are not an issue when following the trend. So long as you are trading from a major support/resistance level we would generally assume that the heavier orders from the major level would outweigh any counter-trend orders and a minor level. However, on this occasion I don't think we traded from the right level - which you mentioned. I too think we should have waited for 1.5100.

Regards,

Dan
  • #914
  • Jan 8, 2011 6:02am Jan 8, 2011 6:02am
Quoting DanUK
Hi Paul,

Again, it is my cautious nature.

I know it's a bit cliche to say it but successful trading is not about focusing on maximising profits - it's about limiting risk.

That's why I mentioned it. Perhaps I shouldn't have commented.
Hi Dan,

I whole heartedly agree with your risk mantra
Of course you should comment. After all its your thread. The rules and criteria that you set out for trades are the building blocks of a successful system that you are sharing. Perhaps the next potential trade I post will adhere to these rules. The rest I will confine to my trading journal.

Regards

Paul
Never underestimate an idiot.
  • #915
  • Jan 8, 2011 8:58am Jan 8, 2011 8:58am
Quoting DanUK
Hi jcalow,

Don't beat yourself up about this one too much! I think it caught a few people out. Losses happen, I wish they didn't but it's just part of the game I suppose.

Now, as to things that went against this trade, I would cite the following:

1. The first week back after Christmas is not a good time to trade.

2. NFP Friday.

[color=black][font=Verdana]3....

Whaaaat, come on, keep posting setups. I dont care if you make mistakes you are less likely to make a mistake than anyone else here. It helps us to learn.
  • #916
  • Jan 8, 2011 9:05am Jan 8, 2011 9:05am
I agree with Naughtypip....please keep posting setup. We will learn from our mistakes and together we will be a better trader.
  • #917
  • Jan 8, 2011 9:10am Jan 8, 2011 9:10am
Hello Neo Rio, thank you for your weekly analysis. I like it. Tell me please how can I join to your skype room? Thank you,
  • #918
  • Jan 8, 2011 4:27pm Jan 8, 2011 4:27pm
Quoting lite27
Hello Neo Rio, thank you for your weekly analysis. I like it. Tell me please how can I join to your skype room? Thank you,
If you give me your Skype name, I will add you.

Regards
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #919
  • Jan 8, 2011 4:30pm Jan 8, 2011 4:30pm
Quoting iferdous
I agree with Naughtypip....please keep posting setup. We will learn from our mistakes and together we will be a better trader.
I third that! Please keep posting, Dan. I started posting my charts and even videos and then I realized that it would probably be a good idea to put a little disclaimer at the beginning so that people would know this is not a trade signal, or a recommendation to take a trade..just my thoughts. I hope people know that when (all of us) post a potential setup (you included) there is no responsibility taken by the poster for any trades people might take as a result.

Kind Regards,
NeoRio
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #920
  • Jan 8, 2011 5:07pm Jan 8, 2011 5:07pm
keep posting your charts dan,its up to us to do our work to see if it is a good setup
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