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Pitchfork Goldmine!

  • #1,121
  • Jan 4, 2011 3:21pm Jan 4, 2011 3:21pm
with modified schiff
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nu3.GIF Size: 34 KB
  • #1,122
  • Jan 4, 2011 3:34pm Jan 4, 2011 3:34pm
And yet another view of Nzd-Usd: M15.

FX4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzd-usd 1-4-11.jpg Size: 96 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,123
  • Jan 4, 2011 6:53pm Jan 4, 2011 6:53pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
EU is now battling with some resistance. FOMC Minutes later today. ML intersection above. Price still in uptrend territory. Let price confirm which way.

FX4Newbies
Price did not make the ML intersection and could not hold above blue HL marking area of resistance. From there it went south. Updated chart attached.

FX4Newbies
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd1-4-11-2.jpg Size: 135 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,124
  • Jan 5, 2011 6:01am Jan 5, 2011 6:01am
Price continued to fall and is bouncing off of the red ML on the chart above. An ML entry is always tricky because of the conflicting possibilities. Trade your edge or use a shorter time-frame for quick trades if you must click .

Take care,

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,125
  • Jan 5, 2011 1:01pm Jan 5, 2011 1:01pm
Hi Fx4,
Good luck with your trades,however i was a little suprised why you didnt trade the eur/usd.
The NZ is a little off the radar,i sugest you top up your account and start again

Pike
  • #1,126
  • Edited 3:19pm Jan 5, 2011 1:19pm | Edited 3:19pm
Quoting pikeliver
Hi Fx4,
Good luck with your trades,however i was a little suprised why you didnt trade the eur/usd.
The NZ is a little off the radar,i sugest you top up your account and start again

Pike
So was I LOL. The NZD set-up was there and as you can see it did fall very nicely. I was in another zone apparently. What would normally be a no-brainer of a trade to short, for some reason I was on the opposite side in my mind...and wouldn't switch. No need to top up...will keep pressing. All shall be well. Working on sealing off some of the distractions I experience while trading.

Below is a quote from a post by Auxesis:

I was taught that the great hitters in baseball batted on average somewhere around .350 35% more or less, meaning they failed about 2/3's the time they stepped to the plate. Honored and adored they didn't even bat 50%.

I was told to figure out a way to be profitable when I only trade winners to losers 1:3

In the earlier scenario I laid out for Big Pippin, the case was made for a long trade like he had posted, a little different criteria but valid imho. I could have just as well made a case and framed a continuation trade short off the Fib reject and retest of the broken support now turned resistance.

Which one is right which one was wrong, doesn't matter. You do your homework and learn the tools of your trade, you put them to use, frame a trade and make a case for putting your hard earned money on the line.

Great! Now do you close your eyes and hope everything turns out like you planned? The markets are dynamic ever changing. Even though we look at the chart and determine there's a better chance that price will go here instead of there, the next failed follow through or price falling back and taking out some support/resistance level changes the read. So no matter how great the setup looks, price has to play it's part and follow the plan. When it stops following, you have decisions to make, and being married to your preconceived bias will only take you down to dark and scary places.

You enter a trade and get stopped out at break even, So What! Your wrong and it cost you nothing????? Please!

There's a lot of bad things that can happen to you when you're in a trade, minimizing and managing risk is paramount. Retraining my brain to think in terms of survival/risk management/profitability above ego - was the hardest nut to crack.

Looking for more out of this than the profits (which I have generated before): it's about cracking the familiar "trading dilemmas" you read about in books on trading psychology etc. This trade brought one to the surface that I have seen in the last month or two and am on the hunt to eliminate. According to Auxesis, this "was the hardest nut to crack." There are two others that I will target as they surface. None of them have anything to do with analysis, but they are associated with becoming the trader for the next level. I think this experience will be good for all traders because somewhere I think we can all identify with the mental/emotional journey the trader goes through. Also, I think newbies will get some hope as they struggle to learn and become, which is the more important part in my estimation .

Thanks for the concern,

FX4Newbies

P.S. Ate something today that didn't quite agree with me. Opted not to put that account and myself to the test under those conditions .
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,127
  • Jan 5, 2011 8:26pm Jan 5, 2011 8:26pm
Hope everyone's New Year is off to a great start...thought I would stop by and participate a bit in your thread FX! Here's my 240 chart for the yen and pound.

The direction of the pound seems to be a mixed here...may try to match the last correction up.

The Yen is coming up to an area of confluence, may try to trade short there if the market can take out the double top bar pattern.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1_5-GBP-240.JPG Size: 110 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1_5_JPY-240.JPG Size: 87 KB
  • #1,128
  • Jan 5, 2011 9:41pm Jan 5, 2011 9:41pm
Hello ShanB,

New Year has been good. Trading?.....Still getting in the zone...LOL.

Here is a more expanded view of GbpUsd. Red downward fork is similar to yours, but I have put it in the context of the Daily. Lots of forks and each has a message. Green dashed fork is a "What-If" fork.

Looks like it is in a wilderness trying to go somewhere...let's see.

Thanks for posting and take care,

FX4Newbies
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp-usd1-4-11.jpg Size: 114 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,129
  • Edited 11:15am Jan 6, 2011 7:12am | Edited 11:15am
Good Morning to all,

EU has been trickling downward. Approaching support. Just let price lead. The second chart shows the bigger picture.


Take care,

FX4Newbies
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd1-6-11.jpg Size: 141 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd1-6-11-3.jpg Size: 140 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,130
  • Jan 6, 2011 10:31am Jan 6, 2011 10:31am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Hello ShanB,

New Year has been good. Trading?.....Still getting in the zone...LOL.

Here is a more expanded view of GbpUsd. Red downward fork is similar to yours, but I have put it in the context of the Daily. Lots of forks and each has a message. Green dashed fork is a "What-If" fork.

Looks like it is in a wilderness trying to go somewhere...let's see.

Thanks for posting and take care,

FX4Newbies
Nice chart I have something similar on the daily. Also the Euro's move looks to be very impulsive, almost no corrective move YET..this could be indicative of a strong move down!
  • #1,131
  • Jan 6, 2011 10:43am Jan 6, 2011 10:43am
Quoting ShanB
Nice chart I have something similar on the daily. Also the Euro's move looks to be very impulsive, almost no corrective move YET..this could be indicative of a strong move down!
Very much so. Just gotta watch for "conclusive" changes in direction. Until then, go with the flow...remember Newton's law...a body (price) will continue until...something happens to change that direction.

Take care,

FX4Newbies

P.S. Doing some "target practice" trading in another account to get the juices flowing again. So far so good. Also working on getting back my timing/trading rhythm for entries. Will see how that practice shapes up for the market next Sunday/Monday .
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,132
  • Jan 6, 2011 11:08am Jan 6, 2011 11:08am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Very much so. Just gotta watch for "conclusive" changes in direction. Until then, go with the flow...remember Newton's law...a body (price) will continue until...something happens to change that direction.

Take care,

FX4Newbies

P.S. Doing some "target practice" trading in another account to get the juices flowing again. So far so good. Also working on getting back my timing/trading rhythm for entries. Will see how that practice shapes up for the market next Sunday/Monday .
Agreed, good luck with the target practice! I'm sure you'll be back in rhythm in no time.
  • #1,133
  • Edited 5:01pm Jan 6, 2011 11:44am | Edited 5:01pm
Quoting ShanB
Agreed, good luck with the target practice! I'm sure you'll be back in rhythm in no time.
Started today...traded UsdCad (Long), EurGbp (Short)..made pips on both. Entries were not as timely as I would have liked. Will keep firing away .

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,134
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:59am Jan 7, 2011 3:59am
Here's some charts of the majors...with some probable paths of price. Tried to
short the USD/JPY at the first touch of the upsloping ML...now complete with count. Let's see what happens...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1_7_GBP-trade.JPG Size: 90 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1_7_JPY-240.JPG Size: 117 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1_7_EUR-240.JPG Size: 106 KB
  • #1,135
  • Jan 7, 2011 7:22am Jan 7, 2011 7:22am
Two potential target areas I have my eye on.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NU 1.GIF Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NU 2.GIF Size: 31 KB
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #1,136
  • Jan 7, 2011 7:28am Jan 7, 2011 7:28am
Here's another view. Possibly on its way to P5...may not be just yet. Non-Farm to come. Things could change.

FX4Newbies
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpyh4 1-7-11.jpg Size: 90 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,137
  • Jan 7, 2011 7:38am Jan 7, 2011 7:38am
Quoting kapital
Two potential target areas I have my eye on.
Hello Kapital,

News gave it a pop outside the downward fork. If it can hold, then maybe it's a turn...if not, the current trend continues...or we roll for a while.

FX4Newbies
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzd-usd 1-7-11.jpg Size: 105 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,138
  • Jan 7, 2011 8:14am Jan 7, 2011 8:14am
Upside target achieved....right to the energy point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NU.GIF Size: 35 KB
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #1,139
  • Jan 7, 2011 8:17am Jan 7, 2011 8:17am
Two charts: H4 first then H1. H4 shows an X with the potential target if price continued. NFP hit...price went south. H1 chart shows an adjusted X target IF price can push again. We'll see...

FX4Newbies
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpyh4 1-7-11-2.jpg Size: 89 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpyh1 1-7-11-3.jpg Size: 87 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,140
  • Edited 11:20am Jan 7, 2011 8:41am | Edited 11:20am
Quoting kapital
Upside target achieved....right to the energy point.
Excellent!!! Maybe the tell was in the fact that price was moving outside of your dashed channel line (A/R lines ?) and finding support in that area...but with NFP news (and others) nothing is guaranteed. Price did happen to continue in that direction this time.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
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