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  • #881
  • Jan 4, 2011 3:49pm Jan 4, 2011 3:49pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
On the daily charts, eur/jpy, usd/cad and usd/chf look good right now, any opinions?
EJ - trend down, but no signal (only very big doji)
UC - trend down, but BUEB today. Also there still is not reached 50% retracement
UF - trend down, but BUEB today. There should be the opposite signal on correct place to go short. But it didnt.
  • #882
  • Jan 4, 2011 4:12pm Jan 4, 2011 4:12pm
Think this probably fits Dan's criteria.

50% retrace and bearish engulfing bar.
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Never underestimate an idiot.
  • #883
  • Jan 4, 2011 4:16pm Jan 4, 2011 4:16pm
Quoting Milan
you are right on most, but I think if the divergence was bearish, it should rise on price and decrease on the indicator, but it didnt. The rest of arguments is right, but I still believe it is going up. You also must not forget the big support on 1,33
It's called hidden divergence. Still bearish though.
http://www.babypips.com/school/hidden-divergence.html

Regards,
Neo
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #884
  • Jan 4, 2011 4:18pm Jan 4, 2011 4:18pm
I think the biggest chance is forming on AUDNZD. Retracement 50% on the strong 1,31 level. But still not any signal to go long.
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  • #885
  • Jan 4, 2011 4:31pm Jan 4, 2011 4:31pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
On the daily charts, eur/jpy, usd/cad and usd/chf look good right now, any opinions?
Hi guys,

Only got a minute for a quick post today as I've only just got in from a crazy long day! So I don't mean to be rude but I just want to make a couple of quick points...

@Milan - I'm not sure why you're thinking long on the Euro? Perhaps you're seeing something I'm not but at the moment this is still a short trade.

@NaughtyPip - I agree with you - all at worthy locations; but trade with a good setup bar only!

@NeoRio - I'm still in from the shooting star off of 1.3500 so it's too close for me to look to add but I think a close below 1.3300 would be needed... what do you reckon?

@Uncle Gromit - I'm not too keen on the EUR/GBP at the moment for two reasons; the first is that the trend doesn't look really clear or particularly strong at the moment, the second is that a short trade at this location would be trading straight into the 0.8500 level - which is a bit dangerous!

Sorry that was a bit rushed - hopefully I didn't miss anyone! I've got to grab something to eat and then crash tonight but I will check back in tomorrow!

Regards,

Dan
  • #886
  • Jan 4, 2011 4:37pm Jan 4, 2011 4:37pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi guys,

Only got a minute for a quick post today as I've only just got in from a crazy long day! So I don't mean to be rude but I just want to make a couple of quick points...

@Milan - I'm not sure why you're thinking long on the Euro? Perhaps you're seeing something I'm not but at the moment this is still a short trade.

@NaughtyPip - I agree with you - all at worthy locations; but trade with a good setup bar only!

@NeoRio - I'm still in from the shooting star off of 1.3500 so it's too close for me to look to add but I think a close below...

No probs dan, thanks for the input
  • #887
  • Jan 5, 2011 4:13am Jan 5, 2011 4:13am
Quoting NeoRio
For anyone interested, here is my latest analysis video:

Weekly Analysis

Kind Regards,
Neo
Neo.

Great analysis as always. I'm learning a lot from both yourself and Dan, in fact from all the contributors on this thread.

I have started to log your views in writing, so I can refer to them and really understand what's going on with the different pairs.

Happy new year to you all.

Regards
Paul
  • #888
  • Jan 6, 2011 4:45am Jan 6, 2011 4:45am
After much watching I managed to get short. Not a perfect entry. That would have been a 50% retrace of the daily PB.
How does this fit with Dan's checklist? Probably 2 and 5. Key resistance level ie. prior swing high, and trigger bar ( massive PB )
Very much countertrend but a tradeable setup nevertheless.
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Never underestimate an idiot.
  • #889
  • Jan 6, 2011 7:36am Jan 6, 2011 7:36am
Quoting uncle gromit
After much watching I managed to get short. Not a perfect entry. That would have been a 50% retrace of the daily PB.
How does this fit with Dan's checklist? Probably 2 and 5. Key resistance level ie. prior swing high, and trigger bar ( massive PB )
Very much countertrend but a tradeable setup nevertheless.
Hi uncle gromit,

I must admit this looks like an interesting double top forming... could well be the start of the move down but I'm afraid this scores a zero on the checklist. A trade must achieve 1, 2 and 5 in order to be tradable (under this method).

Number 1 is the golden rule... is the trade with the trend?

A quick question if I may; which bar was your trigger? I don't see any "massive" pin bars?

Regards,

Dan
  • #890
  • Jan 6, 2011 4:21pm Jan 6, 2011 4:21pm
No spectacular looking trades out there at the moment. USD/CHF is in an interesting place and I'm keeping an eye on it!

GBP/CHF caught my eye though... we are in uncharted lows at the moment so we haven't got as much historical data to go on but I would say we have confluence...

1. Down-trend in place

2. S/R around 0.9700/0.9750 (blue box)

3. 50% fib level (yellow)

4. 38.2% fib level (magenta)

5. Possible shooting star forming - not the best looking bar but certainly seems to suggest a rejection of the above levels.

There's also a similar setup on CAD/CHF but doesn't look quite as good.

Regards,

Dan
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  • #891
  • Jan 6, 2011 4:32pm Jan 6, 2011 4:32pm
This was a trade I took earlier this week... I didn't post it as "one to watch" because the trigger was on the H4 charts and I would prefer we stick to the dailies for now.

But for those of you who are proficient trading the daily charts and want to look for a few more opportunities to trade; this is how I use the H4 charts in conjunction with this method.

The first chart shows the "Daily" view of EUR/NZD... price was in a downtrend although it had been consolidating for some time. Price eventually broke the developing upward trendline and then came back to re-test the "area of interest" around 1.7500.

So, my analysis on the Daily chart tells me that we might be looking to sell here and I drop down to the H4 chart to look for an early entry signal. In this case I am lucky and we get a perfect shooting star and I am in. Now, as it happens the daily on my feed didn't produce a selling signal but fortunately for me I am in off of the H4 chart anyway.

This is how to add the H4 chart in as an extra tool.

Now I must stress - H4 charts are only to be traded once you are profitable on the dailies and they should only be traded with A+ setups.

Just thought that might be of some interest to someone!

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #892
  • Jan 6, 2011 4:32pm Jan 6, 2011 4:32pm
Quoting DanUK
No spectacular looking trades out there at the moment. USD/CHF is in an interesting place and I'm keeping an eye on it!

GBP/CHF caught my eye though... we are in uncharted lows at the moment so we haven't got as much historical data to go on but I would say we have confluence...

1. Down-trend in place

2. S/R around 0.9700/0.9750 (blue box)

3. 50% fib level (yellow)

4. 38.2% fib level (magenta)

5. Possible shooting star forming - not the best looking bar but certainly seems to suggest a rejection of the above levels.

There's also a...
Thanks for your efforts and the heads up. Will definitely put this on the watch list, but not till Monday. NFP tommorrow capped of by a very weird week of PA. Have a nice weekend

Take Care
Always Learning
  • #893
  • Jan 6, 2011 5:38pm Jan 6, 2011 5:38pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi uncle gromit,

I must admit this looks like an interesting double top forming... could well be the start of the move down but I'm afraid this scores a zero on the checklist. A trade must achieve 1, 2 and 5 in order to be tradable (under this method).

Number 1 is the golden rule... is the trade with the trend?

A quick question if I may; which bar was your trigger? I don't see any "massive" pin bars?

Regards,

Dan
Dan

The one with the arrow !!!
Trigger bar was the break of the IB/OB combination.
As to being against trend, was that not a retest of the underside of a previously broken TL ?
At what point does a TL become invalid ?

Regards

Paul
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Never underestimate an idiot.
  • #894
  • Jan 6, 2011 5:44pm Jan 6, 2011 5:44pm
Dan

Not sure why you thought short into the 0.8500 level might be dangerous. Its been used and abused to often in recent times. Just MHO.

Regards

Paul
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Never underestimate an idiot.
  • #895
  • Jan 7, 2011 6:21am Jan 7, 2011 6:21am
Quoting uncle gromit
Dan

The one with the arrow !!!
Trigger bar was the break of the IB/OB combination.
As to being against trend, was that not a retest of the underside of a previously broken TL ?
At what point does a TL become invalid ?

Regards

Paul
Hi Paul,

Ah I see what you're saying now... it's actually a bearish outside bar but it means the same thing I guess!!

You are right in saying that it was a retest of the broken trendline - which is a fine tool to add to the toolbox however what I would add is that it doesn't necessarily mean the trend has changed.

I am quite cautious about trading and whilst I have taken similar trades in the past these days I prefer to wait until a new trend has developed.

Catching tops and bottoms are great when they work out but in my humble opinion they tend to work out less than I would like.

Regards,

Dan
  • #896
  • Jan 7, 2011 6:28am Jan 7, 2011 6:28am
Quoting uncle gromit
Dan

Not sure why you thought short into the 0.8500 level might be dangerous. Its been used and abused to often in recent times. Just MHO.

Regards

Paul
Hi Paul,

Again, it is my cautious nature.

I know it's a bit cliche to say it but successful trading is not about focusing on maximising profits - it's about limiting risk.

That's why I mentioned it. Perhaps I shouldn't have commented.
  • #897
  • Jan 7, 2011 1:29pm Jan 7, 2011 1:29pm
If this pinbar stays the same its looking good for a buy on monday.

With the trend, key level of s/r, 61% fib, round number.

Any opinions?
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  • #898
  • Jan 7, 2011 2:44pm Jan 7, 2011 2:44pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
If this pinbar stays the same its looking good for a buy on monday.

With the trend, key level of s/r, 61% fib, round number.

Any opinions?
Looks good to me, I don't normally monitor this pair, so I don't have my analysis, but based on your chart, seems to be inline with what we're looking for.
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #899
  • Jan 7, 2011 3:02pm Jan 7, 2011 3:02pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
If this pinbar stays the same its looking good for a buy on monday.

With the trend, key level of s/r, 61% fib, round number.

Any opinions?
It looks like everything is lined up for a good trade NP, my only question or reservation would be trading in to a Psych. Number (the 1.0000) at only 60 pips or so away. I bring this up for more debate also because I dont have a good answer.

Take Care and Have a Good Weekend
Always Learning
  • #900
  • Jan 7, 2011 5:34pm Jan 7, 2011 5:34pm
Hi

I have been trading for 5 years but am still experimenting with this method. I took a short on GBPCHF last night from 1.4875 but was stopped out for -100 pips. I entered at this level to ensure that .4900 level was broken. I have since noticed that Dan posted yesterday about this potential trade and I believe that our reasons were mostly the same. I thought this looked a good entry. I would be very grateful though if anyone could point out any flaws in my analysis or maybe this was just one of those loosing trades.
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