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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

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  • Post #267,721
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  • Dec 30, 2010 12:32pm Dec 30, 2010 12:32pm
  •  sdsarmad
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2009 | 91 Posts
Forex Pros – The U.S. dollar was mixed against its major counterparts on Thursday in thin trade ahead of the New Year’s weekend, after a flurry of upbeat U.S. economic data on employment, manufacturing and home sales.

With many investors already away on year-end leave, trading volumes were low ahead of the New Year’s weekend, resulting in choppy trade.

During early U.S. trade, the greenback was down against the euro, with EUR/USD jumping 0.39% to hit a 2-week high of 1.3278.

Earlier in the day, data showed that euro zone retail sales increased at the fastest rate since May 2008 in December, while Italian business confidence surged to a 33-month high in November.

But the greenback was up against the pound, with GBP/USD tumbling 0.73% to hit 1.5387.

Earlier Thursday, industry data showed that U.K. home prices were likely to extend their decline in 2011 as mortgage restrictions and government spending were likely to discourage buyers in the new year.

Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar was up against the yen but down against the Swiss franc, with USD/JPY gaining 0.14% to hit 81.73, while USD/CHF tumbled 0.88% to hit 0.9372, after earlier falling to an all-time low of 0.9365.

Earlier in the day, data showed that Japan’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index advanced for the second consecutive month in December.

Meanwhile, the greenback was up against its Australian and New Zealand counterparts, with AUD/USD slumping 0.57% to hit 1.0121, after earlier rising to a 28-year high of 1.0198, while NZD/USD shed 0.07% to hit 0.7681, after earlier jumping to a 5-week high of 0.7726.

However, the U.S. dollar was down against the Canadian dollar, with USD/CAD dropping 0.09% to hit 0.9999.

Also Thursday, data showed that Chinese manufacturing growth slowed for the first time in five months in December.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.24%.

Earlier in the day, the U.S. Department of Labor said that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits fell more-than-expected in the week ended December 25, declining to a seasonally adjusted 388K, after falling to a revised 422K in the preceding week. Analysts had expected initial jobless claims to fall to 416K.

Meanwhile, a separate report said that manufacturing activity in the Chicago-area increased unexpectedly in December, while pending home sales jumped significantly more-than-expected in November.
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  • Post #267,722
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  • Dec 30, 2010 2:38pm Dec 30, 2010 2:38pm
  •  redsword11
  • Joined Nov 2008 | Status: living deliberately | 11,122 Posts
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possible outcome
 
 
  • Post #267,723
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  • Dec 30, 2010 2:55pm Dec 30, 2010 2:55pm
  •  kaspopsicle
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Mar 2010 | 3,853 Posts
Opposite correllation on Cable and DX has been amazing 4 me today...!st time i've been able to put both charts up together.... However, what i've been seing all day is Cables fascination with 15434.. B4 and after i got the DX up. That15434 is a line that clearly appeared (according to my charts)yesterday. i 'd drawn a line in at 15370 as bottom of temporary channel from H4 . My position is long from 15515. SL15385.. 1st target 15434 ..15450..there again i may get out cos i can smell my tea burning
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All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
 
 
  • Post #267,724
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  • Dec 30, 2010 3:19pm Dec 30, 2010 3:19pm
  •  next-move
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Member | 83 Posts
The fascination lies in the fact that 1.5434 is the 100 Daily Simple Moving Average.

NM
 
 
  • Post #267,725
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  • Dec 30, 2010 4:29pm Dec 30, 2010 4:29pm
  •  Ctic
  • Joined Oct 2009 | Status: The Voodoo Boodoo Club | 1,419 Posts
Quoting kaspopsicle
Disliked
Opposite correllation on Cable and DX has been amazing 4 me today...!st time i've been able to put both charts up together.... However, what i've been seing all day is Cables fascination with 15434.. B4 and after i got the DX up. That15434 is a line that clearly appeared (according to my charts)yesterday. i 'd drawn a line in at 15370 as bottom of temporary channel from H4 . My position is long from 15515. SL15385.. 1st target 15434 ..15450..there again i may get out cos i can smell my tea burning
Ignored
Kas,

Something doesn't seem right there... I think you meant 1.5415 since at 1.5515 trade, T1 1.5434..1.5450 you would already be anticipating a loss.

Now for the bigger point assuming trade @ 5415. Just my advise from what I have found in my experience.

1.5415-1.5385 = 30 pip stop loss

1.5434-1.5415 = 19 pip take profit T1.

You are risking 30 pips to make 19. What that means is you are willing to take a bigger risk than the reward you want to receive. That should be inverted. Look at my trade from earlier today.

1.5504 trade price

SL = 55 pips

Take profit 1 = 125 pips

Take profit 2 = 150 pips

Tak profit 3 = 250 pips

I took take profit 1 because of the sideways channel we are in.. But look how I risk 55 pips to make 125 pips.

If I am right 50% of the time... I make money...
If you are right 50% of the time... you lose money....

Please don't take offense, just trying to give you some winning tools.
 
 
  • Post #267,726
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  • Dec 30, 2010 5:55pm Dec 30, 2010 5:55pm
  •  kaspopsicle
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Mar 2010 | 3,853 Posts
Quoting Ctic
Disliked
Kas,

Something doesn't seem right there... I think you meant 1.5415 since at 1.5515 trade, T1 1.5434..1.5450 you would already be anticipating a loss.

Now for the bigger point assuming trade @ 5415. Just my advise from what I have found in my experience.

1.5415-1.5385 = 30 pip stop loss

1.5434-1.5415 = 19 pip take profit T1.

You are risking 30 pips to make 19. What that means is you are willing to take a bigger risk than the reward you want to receive. That should be inverted. Look at my trade from earlier today.


Thanks for taking time...
Ignored
Hi Ctic, did big thank you reply but pressed wrong button and lost it . Posting this while i go back through ..
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
 
 
  • Post #267,727
  • Quote
  • Dec 30, 2010 6:04pm Dec 30, 2010 6:04pm
  •  javapips
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Save our Children's Save our Future | 1,124 Posts
so sleepy...still morning in here and i think too soon talking about what she going to do...
anyway some times i wonder how people could comparing usdx and cable (since first time i hear people talking about that coorelation, i only say 'yes yes' to honor the poster )..,
cable will mostly alreay blazz more than 60 pips before usdx move.. so why use usdx to confirm cable???
usdx is more close to euro..,
some times GU move together with EU (so GU move together with USDX also), some times not..,
i don't know EU thead but maybe i think it's should be common in there to posting usdx also, posting USDx in GU thread? mehhh...i call it 'finding the reason'..you already late to trade dude, this big lady know what she doing, no need confirmation..,she is the leader..


ps: and maybe that's way people like EU, there is confirm from usdx (they really move together)
I will be the number one Manager.
 
 
  • Post #267,728
  • Quote
  • Dec 30, 2010 6:13pm Dec 30, 2010 6:13pm
  •  kaspopsicle
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Mar 2010 | 3,853 Posts
Quoting Ctic
Disliked
Kas,

Something doesn't seem right there... I think you meant 1.5415 since at 1.5515 trade, T1 1.5434..1.5450 you would already be anticipating a loss.

Now for the bigger point assuming trade @ 5415. Just my advise from what I have found in my experience.

1.5415-1.5385 = 30 pip stop loss

1.5434-1.5415 = 19 pip take profit T1.

You are risking 30 pips to make 19. What that means is you are willing to take a bigger risk than the reward you want to receive. That should be inverted. Look at my trade from earlier today.

1.5504 trade price...
Ignored
Hi Ctic, no offence taken.My thanks,however, are big time. 15515 was a typo . Will take more care in future.
i started out trading live with a 30 pip sl for a 10 pip reward.Very fast scalp system..long story short...Once i found FF i realised how many elements in the game that i had to refine...rr being one of them. Yet again you have helped..this time knowingly. I thank you sincerely for your time and care in pointing me in the right direction.
I'll take the opportunity now to wish a very happy and prosperous new year to you and yours. Thanks Ctic. k x
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
 
 
  • Post #267,729
  • Quote
  • Dec 30, 2010 6:22pm Dec 30, 2010 6:22pm
  •  kaspopsicle
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Mar 2010 | 3,853 Posts
Quoting javapips
Disliked
so sleepy...still morning in here and i think too soon...
Ignored
i think you have a valid point there...first time i've been able to study the correlation today...certainly seemed to me as if she was waiting for every other major pairing to catch up with her..almost yawning at times lol.
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
 
 
  • Post #267,730
  • Quote
  • Dec 30, 2010 6:23pm Dec 30, 2010 6:23pm
  •  Ctic
  • Joined Oct 2009 | Status: The Voodoo Boodoo Club | 1,419 Posts
Quoting kaspopsicle
Disliked
Hi Ctic, no offence taken.My thanks,however, are big time. 15515 was a typo . Will take more care in future.
i started out trading live with a 30 pip sl for a 10 pip reward.Very fast scalp system..long story short...Once i found FF i realised how many elements in the game that i had to refine...rr being one of them. Yet again you have helped..this time knowingly. I thank you sincerely for your time and care in pointing me in the right direction.
I'll take the opportunity now to wish a very happy and prosperous new year to you and yours. Thanks...
Ignored
NP Kas,

That is what we are here in the forum for, to learn from each other. You too have a Happy and Prosperous New Year.

C.
 
 
  • Post #267,731
  • Quote
  • Dec 30, 2010 9:21pm Dec 30, 2010 9:21pm
  •  javapips
  • | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Save our Children's Save our Future | 1,124 Posts
why each time we have no position, the market looks like clear...

i'm done for this year, waste time waiting...,

HAPPY NEW YEAR





ps: if you have yearly chart (or just use weekly chart) drop fibo from januari (high) till May (low). bull bear score is 50:50 happy ending
I will be the number one Manager.
 
 
  • Post #267,732
  • Quote
  • Dec 30, 2010 9:54pm Dec 30, 2010 9:54pm
  •  chazzle
  • Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 11,327 Posts
Quoting javapips
Disliked
so sleepy...still morning in here and i think too soon...
Ignored
Thanks Java ... noted I did listen to advice from a trader who explained that wholesale buying and selling of $ is worth watching - but maybe I was looking for too much correlation. GU has about 1/3 the volume of E/U if I'm not mistaken , so yes it makes the moves more whipsaw like - perhaps the strongest S/R on DX is what we should be looking out for? Thanks again
 
 
  • Post #267,733
  • Quote
  • Dec 30, 2010 9:59pm Dec 30, 2010 9:59pm
  •  chazzle
  • Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 11,327 Posts
Some resistance ahead @ 15490 ... I'm short from 15460 with another pending @ 15480 SL on both 15500 and TPs are 40 and 50 respectively
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  • Post #267,734
  • Quote
  • Dec 30, 2010 10:05pm Dec 30, 2010 10:05pm
  •  chazzle
  • Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 11,327 Posts
note the gravestone on H1 just formed
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  • Post #267,735
  • Quote
  • Dec 31, 2010 3:27am Dec 31, 2010 3:27am
  •  jesher
  • | Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Junior Member | 1 Post
pls can someone interpret the calendar what is actual, Forecastand Previous how doees it apply to trading
 
 
  • Post #267,736
  • Quote
  • Dec 31, 2010 3:41am Dec 31, 2010 3:41am
  •  chazzle
  • Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 11,327 Posts
Quoting chazzle
Disliked
Some resistance ahead @ 15490 ... I'm short from 15460 with another pending @ 15480 SL on both 15500 and TPs are 40 and 50 respectively
Ignored
oh well ... shall wait for the next one
 
 
  • Post #267,737
  • Quote
  • Dec 31, 2010 3:59am Dec 31, 2010 3:59am
  •  Suryananda
  • Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Member | 623 Posts
Lunar Revolution and eclipse 04-Jan-2011 9:03 GMT.
In my humble opinion:
GBPUSD is bullish.
GBPJPY is bullish.
End of cycle 11-Jan-2011.
Stop Loss 40 pip.
It is important to use Stop Loss.

Other comments in this thread:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=1#post4276868
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  • Post #267,738
  • Quote
  • Dec 31, 2010 5:02am Dec 31, 2010 5:02am
  •  chazzle
  • Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 11,327 Posts
Taking Ifty's advice and looking at set-ups with an oscillator -

I'm going short from 15500 after seeing some negative divergence on RSI with a stop about 20 pips beyond today's high RR minimum 1:1
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  • Post #267,739
  • Quote
  • Edited at 5:26am Dec 31, 2010 5:15am | Edited at 5:26am
  •  mdiz2
  • | Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Member | 872 Posts
Quoting chazzle
Disliked
Taking Ifty's advice and looking at set-ups with an oscillator -

I'm going short from 15500 after seeing some negative divergence on RSI with a stop about 20 pips beyond today's high RR minimum 1:1
Ignored
Not so sure about drawing lines through candles to locate divergence. I have never seen that before in anything I have read. I am no expert so I could be wrong.
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  • Post #267,740
  • Quote
  • Dec 31, 2010 5:24am Dec 31, 2010 5:24am
  •  pipgame
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: winner never quit;quitter never win | 207 Posts
HAPPY NEW YEAR to all
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