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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #267,481
  • Dec 28, 2010 9:16am Dec 28, 2010 9:16am
Quoting Ctic
You know it is people like you that I stopped posting in the forum. I figured things changed. I have posted my charts for weeks, months..etc. Look back to my post last week.. I showed the sideways channel were in and explained my views. I said how I was going to play it and I did. If you were to stupid to play long at the top of a sideways channel that is your problem......don't say you weren't warned and don't get pissed at those for following their views.
No idea where this guy has come from all of a sudden but don't stop posting because of him for goodness sake. Need to get this thread alive and kicking again ready for 2011.
You've got to be IN IT to WIN IT!
  • #267,482
  • Dec 28, 2010 9:40am Dec 28, 2010 9:40am
Quoting Ifty
No idea where this guy has come from all of a sudden but don't stop posting because of him for goodness sake. Need to get this thread alive and kicking again ready for 2011.
I know it just gets on my nerves. I won't go anywhere.
  • #267,483
  • Dec 28, 2010 9:43am Dec 28, 2010 9:43am
Quoting ramksanj
Ty to both you and Las for the kind words. I won't. Go anywhere. Shit like that just gets on my nerves.
  • #267,484
  • Dec 28, 2010 9:45am Dec 28, 2010 9:45am
Quoting Ctic
Ty to both you and Las for the kind words. I won't. Go anywhere. Shit like that just gets on my nerves.
Woof woof!
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #267,485
  • Dec 28, 2010 9:49am Dec 28, 2010 9:49am
Quoting kaspopsicle
The wish from me and i'm sure the majority here is would you please stay. Unknowingly you have given me the courage to follow my plan today. Going in and out as usual but building confidence in the lines that i draw in . Thanks.
Good job by the way. Keep it up.
  • #267,486
  • Dec 28, 2010 9:53am Dec 28, 2010 9:53am
Quoting Ctic
Good job by the way. Keep it up.
Thank you. Will do ...
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #267,487
  • Dec 28, 2010 2:03pm Dec 28, 2010 2:03pm
Hello Cabelguys!

This is my first post in this thread, in fact my first post on FF.
I have been following the EUR/USD for half a year, but is sick of all the rubbish.
So latley I have been watching the cable charts and start reading this thread today.

As a new starter her I would like to ask you guys that have been around for a while what traders to pay attention to in this thread.
I have already made a note of TauTrader that did see the drop today before i happent.

Cheers.

NB:My native language is not English so forgive me my spelling
  • #267,488
  • Dec 28, 2010 2:30pm Dec 28, 2010 2:30pm
For all the TOGU's in the room, let me post what I am going to do now, well in advance before I do it...


THIS YEAR ALONE we have been in this price range and hovered here for weeks 3 times as shown by arrows. I am waiting for a definate pierce of the level to hop in. Short or long I don't care (even though Monthy suggests it will be short). If you want to see the chart, I will post it. Otherwise, if it raises back top side, I will put in another short and ride it to the bottom of the channel (Stop loss will be set accordingly).

Currently we are holding at lows so even though I don't think it will break yet, It might.


WARNING: THIS IS MY THOUGHT PROCESS. IT MIGHT MAKE YOU MONEY, IT MAY LOSE YOU MONEY, IT MAY LOSE YOU MONEY IF YOU FOLLOW IT, IT MAY LOSE YOU MONEY IF YOU DON'T FOLLOW IT. IF I MAKE MONEY DOING THIS, DON'T BITCH AT ME WHEN I AM RIGHT, YOU WERE WARNED. IF I LOSE MONEY, DON'T LAUGH AT ME EITHER, I HAVE A STOPLOSS SET, AND IT IS A SMALL RISK COMPARED TO MY OVERALL ACCOUNT BALANCE. I CAN TAKE IT.
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  • #267,489
  • Dec 28, 2010 2:41pm Dec 28, 2010 2:41pm
Quoting kaspopsicle
Woof woof!
LOL... Las... sorry, was typing on my mobile, meant Kas.
  • #267,490
  • Dec 28, 2010 2:48pm Dec 28, 2010 2:48pm
Quoting Ctic
For all the TOGU's in the room, let me post what I am going to do now, well in advance before I do it...


THIS YEAR ALONE we have been in this price range and hovered here for weeks 3 times as shown by arrows. I am waiting for a definate pierce of the level to hop in. Short or long I don't care (even though Monthy suggests it will be short). If you want to see the chart, I will post it. Otherwise, if it raises back top side, I will put in another short and ride it to the bottom of the channel (Stop loss will be set accordingly).

Currently we...
We have almost the same setup on E/U, holding right at the support atm. Monthly chart does have a nice bearish engulfing, which may suggest short as well. Once it breaks this channel, hop in and ride (either direction doesn't matter.)

WARNING: THIS IS MY THOUGHT PROCESS. IT MIGHT MAKE YOU MONEY, IT MAY LOSE YOU MONEY, IT MAY LOSE YOU MONEY IF YOU FOLLOW IT, IT MAY LOSE YOU MONEY IF YOU DON'T FOLLOW IT. IF I MAKE MONEY DOING THIS, DON'T BITCH AT ME WHEN I AM RIGHT, YOU WERE WARNED. IF I LOSE MONEY, DON'T LAUGH AT ME EITHER, I HAVE A STOPLOSS SET, AND IT IS A SMALL RISK COMPARED TO MY OVERALL ACCOUNT BALANCE. I CAN TAKE IT.
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  • #267,491
  • Dec 28, 2010 2:57pm Dec 28, 2010 2:57pm
Here is what bothers me though.. Here is a USD/CHF monthly chart. This has been on a nice bearish decline as well. So what does this suggest?

USD weakness...
CHF strength....

Gold has had strength which also suggests USD weakness....

But for us to have a decline in GBP/USD and EUR/USD... we need USD strength..

OR

larger GBP & EUR weakness.. which is really what we have had.

Notice on this chart how we are at the bottom of the channel..

Inverse relationship suggests if this bounces up, GBP moves down (though it doesn't always work that way.) I hate to play it long in this downtrend, but hate to play it short at the bottom of the channel.

WARNING: THIS IS MY THOUGHT PROCESS. IT MIGHT MAKE YOU MONEY, IT MAY LOSE YOU MONEY, IT MAY LOSE YOU MONEY IF YOU FOLLOW IT, IT MAY LOSE YOU MONEY IF YOU DON'T FOLLOW IT. IF I MAKE MONEY DOING THIS, DON'T BITCH AT ME WHEN I AM RIGHT, YOU WERE WARNED. IF I LOSE MONEY, DON'T LAUGH AT ME EITHER, I HAVE A STOPLOSS SET, AND IT IS A SMALL RISK COMPARED TO MY OVERALL ACCOUNT BALANCE. I CAN TAKE IT.
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  • #267,492
  • Dec 28, 2010 3:16pm Dec 28, 2010 3:16pm
Here is a good example of how to get your chart to fit your trend lines, targets, and stops....

I am sure at least one line is touching the path....
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  • #267,493
  • Edited 3:28pm Dec 28, 2010 3:22pm | Edited 3:28pm
Hi Ctic - I've been looking at an H&S forming on Daily now for a couple of weeks - although a bit of flirtation , no convincing break below the neckline - most recently , price weaving its way above and below for the last few hours - but no Daily close below - today is the closest - but still I am not convinced

Also , Dollar Index hitting 8070 - previously a pretty decent support level - could now become resistance

All in all I wouldnt be surprised if Cable bounced up to 15600 before further decline - almost a 50% retrace of the recent move (right shoulder) from 15900 till now

Sorry can't post charts at the moment - hell I can't even see the DX chart on my sisters computer for some reason - I can just see the number 8070 ...
  • #267,494
  • Dec 28, 2010 3:41pm Dec 28, 2010 3:41pm
Quoting chazzle
Hi Ctic - I've been looking at an H&S forming on Daily now for a couple of weeks - although a bit of flirtation , no convincing break below the neckline - most recently , price weaving its way above and below for the last few hours - but no Daily close below - today is the closest - but still I am not convinced

Also , Dollar Index hitting 8070 - previously a pretty decent support level - could now become resistance

All in all I wouldnt be surprised if Cable bounced up to 15600 before further decline - almost a 50% retrace of the recent move...
Chazzle,

Good analysis, I am in agreement with you. I have the same resistance line for the DX, but like you said, no clear breaks. I have been watching the cable close for a while now, and as shown, price tends to hover here for a bit.

IMHO.. I don't see any big breaks until after the new year. After that we will probably see more Europe debt, a crappy dollar, strong gold, higher unemployment, and strong stock markets (or what ever else they can dig out of the coffins).

Main reason I have the bearish bias for the cable is the monthly chart. Appears we have a bearish engulfing with a down candle confirming it. also seem to be in a triangle forming here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #267,495
  • Dec 28, 2010 3:54pm Dec 28, 2010 3:54pm
Quoting Ctic
Chazzle,


Main reason I have the bearish bias for the cable is the monthly chart. Appears we have a bearish engulfing with a down candle confirming it. also seem to be in a triangle forming here.
I was looking at that triangle earlier today - and triangles on all other TFs recently - see plenty of them on M15 for example - the one on the monthly makes price look obviously bearish right now - will keep an eye on it
  • #267,496
  • Dec 28, 2010 3:54pm Dec 28, 2010 3:54pm
Quoting Beljevina
Fairly decent bounce off a short-term daily TL and a wicky candle. 165 pip daily range, NY moves typically over by now, so we may be done. Tryin' long, with a BE (perhaps) just below the last low. Partial TP at 1.54 and we'll see what Asia wants to do.
Took some minimal pips up to 1.538 and outta the rest; Asia wants to get in on the ECB mess of today & will like push this down further.
  • #267,497
  • Dec 28, 2010 3:56pm Dec 28, 2010 3:56pm
Quoting chazzle
I was looking at that triangle earlier today - and triangles on all other TFs recently - see plenty of them on M15 for example - the one on the monthly makes price look obviously bearish right now - will keep an eye on it
She is testing that floor as we speak... Will it break??? or will it hold???
  • #267,498
  • Dec 28, 2010 4:00pm Dec 28, 2010 4:00pm
Quoting Ctic
Here is a good example of how to get your chart to fit your trend lines, targets, and stops....

I am sure at least one line is touching the path....
Ahhh yes Ctic...

Taken directly from "The Jackson Pollock School of Forex Charting"...

An interesting approach to be sure!
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Click to Enlarge Name: hmmmm.gif Size: 49 KB
Attached Image
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #267,499
  • Dec 28, 2010 4:06pm Dec 28, 2010 4:06pm
Quoting Ctic
She is testing that floor as we speak... Will it break??? or will it hold???
I'm going long - looks like a bottom pick , honestly it isnt
  • #267,500
  • Dec 28, 2010 4:10pm Dec 28, 2010 4:10pm
Quoting Magix
Ahhh yes Ctic...

Taken directly from "The Jackson Pollock School of Forex Charting"...

An interesting approach to be sure!
Shit - all we need is a programmer and we can develop the Jackson Pollack Indicator , the JPI - could well be the next holy grail
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