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my trade

  • #1,921
  • Edited Dec 18, 2010 12:34pm Dec 17, 2010 2:32pm | Edited Dec 18, 2010 12:34pm
1) read the trend: M15, trade: M5
2) tp: 1%, lot: 30%, of balance. this will be about (+/-) 10 in pips.
3) always have tp pre-set. no sl (mental sl)

charts below show real money trades. not as beautiful as textbook entries, but this is (my) reality ...

have a nice weekend guys!
Attached Images
  • #1,922
  • Dec 18, 2010 3:28am Dec 18, 2010 3:28am
Quoting RisingSun
6 months already! time flies

where is ffrank?
Ben probably just saw me lurking at the bottom

Hey everyone, great trades and charts. Liking your 15min chart RisingSun - moves look really clear on there.

Quoting Magic Trader
Dan, I hope you post your charts in here soon.

Have a great weekend guys.
Hey bud, don't have much to post at the moment. But will throw the below into the mix about exit strategy... (which may be similar to you RisingSun?)

I've been trying to perfect my exits for sometime now and finally gone to what I probably should have done a long time ago! A fixed PL. I'm not allowed to exit manually (unless it pauses right at my PL) - it either hits my PL or my SL.

There's an advantage to this, a really big one.

Back testing!

If you can back test your entry criteria you can then see with complete accuracy how many trades you would win or lose. Previously I always did worse than my back testing because I would exit a trade too early (fear) or try and go for too many pips (greed.)

Just some thoughts. Here's my PL hits for one day this week at Frankfurt (still doing frankfurt only). Sorry for time frame (15min).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,923
  • Dec 18, 2010 3:32am Dec 18, 2010 3:32am
Quoting RisingSun
1) read the trend: M15, trade: M5
2) tp: 1%, lot: 30%, of balance. this will be about (+/-) 10 in pips.
3) always have tp pre-set. no sl (mental sl)

charts below are actual trades of my real account. not as beautiful as textbook entries, but this is (my) reality ...

have a nice weekend guys!
Very nice RisingSun!

Do you have an 'emergency SL' - I've always thought it's best to have one that will never be hit (if using mental SL) but protects you against power cuts/market crash etc.
  • #1,924
  • Dec 18, 2010 3:36am Dec 18, 2010 3:36am
Quoting Magic Trader
Worked all day and missed the huge run and fall back down. Got in a few trades but mostly broke even.
Way it goes sometimes isn't it - arrive after the most amazing move, then face 1 hour of congestion- been there done that Trades look good though, keep hitting those and I'm sure the winners will be much more than the losers!
Great exits on the losing trades too.
  • #1,925
  • Dec 18, 2010 12:47pm Dec 18, 2010 12:47pm
emergency stops ... i usually set it at 10x of target pip gains. not 2x or 3x as i don't like the red lines showing in my view when trading. frankfurt open i found very difficult to deal with due to mixed activities of late asian and/or early london operations. would be nice to see more of your charts to learn how you deal with that challenging time!
  • #1,926
  • Dec 18, 2010 1:00pm Dec 18, 2010 1:00pm
imho, it would be a good idea to set a target gain and design/exercise your trades. daily, weekly, or monthly numbers...

mine is daily 5%. due to occasional losses, it's averaging about 1.3% atm. improving that number is my challenge and pleasure.

what do you have guys?
  • #1,927
  • Dec 18, 2010 4:15pm Dec 18, 2010 4:15pm
Quoting RisingSun
emergency stops ... i usually set it at 10x of target pip gains. not 2x or 3x as i don't like the red lines showing in my view when trading. frankfurt open i found very difficult to deal with due to mixed activities of late asian and/or early london operations. would be nice to see more of your charts to learn how you deal with that challenging time!
Sounds good, glad you use one - always worry when I see someone who doesn't!

Frankfurt is indeed very interesting. One thing it's not, except for very rare days, is quiet! It will often give a small move at the start, then a stronger move up until around 30min and then a reversal ready for London. But then somedays it will just move big right from the start.

Because I'm trading 5sec and small PL it does't matter too much to me if the move is going to be short or longer, aslong as my entries are on 'trend moves' and not congestion/ranging moves. I've found the answer is to enter less and later - with high probability confirmation.

But then I guess that's the key for any system!?
  • #1,928
  • Dec 18, 2010 4:21pm Dec 18, 2010 4:21pm
Quoting RisingSun
imho, it would be a good idea to set a target gain and design/exercise your trades. daily, weekly, or monthly numbers...

mine is daily 5%. due to occasional losses, it's averaging about 1.3% atm. improving that number is my challenge and pleasure.

what do you have guys?
Those are very nice numbers RisingSun. 1.3% is as good as a years interest in our banks currently

I'm not currently using a weekly target - just taking all the trades in my session (although stopping early some days if had a good run of wins). Reason is, in my back testing my system made as high as 17% one week, but another week it only made 0.8%!

I'm aiming for an average of about 8% a week, but would definitely settle for 5% a week. Will see how 2011 treats us?
  • #1,929
  • Dec 20, 2010 6:46am Dec 20, 2010 6:46am
Quoting Ffrank
Will see how 2011 treats us?

lets roll
  • #1,930
  • Dec 21, 2010 2:01pm Dec 21, 2010 2:01pm
moring, all!

trading on hourly charts reduces over trading and/or avoids premature entries..."the" primary causes of a sad day in my case
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  • #1,931
  • Dec 22, 2010 12:27pm Dec 22, 2010 12:27pm
Quoting RisingSun
trading on hourly charts reduces over trading and/or avoids premature entries..."the" primary causes of a sad day in my case
Looks good, Rising. If the H1 keeps you from over-trading, then by all means switch to it. We dont need tons of trades a day. Just one good one will pad our accounts.

So thought I would show you guys what I've been studying. When we use MAs, what do the lines mean, exactly? Think about it, a 20ma on a 5min chart covers action for the past 1-hour 40-minutes. What is particularly special about this time period?

On the 5min chart below, the 288wma covers 24-hours. The 144wma covers 50% of that, or 12hours. And the 12wma covers 1-hour. These periods all have meanings in forex time.

Then the question becomes, how can we use the signals to trade them? Some ideas I'm testing are if price is above the 288 & 144, then look to trade long. If below that, look for shorts. Also, if price starts dipping below any of these lines, including the 12wma, then look for possible change of directions.

Note: On the chart below. Price took a turn south about 90 minutes later.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,932
  • Edited 1:40pm Dec 22, 2010 1:29pm | Edited 1:40pm
Quoting Magic Trader
Then the question becomes, how can we use the signals to trade them? Some ideas I'm testing are if price is above the 288 & 144, then look to trade long. If below that, look for shorts. Also, if price starts dipping below any of these lines, including the 12wma, then look for possible change of directions.
i agree with you to respect longer time ma direction as a general rule, except when you trade very short time such as seconds, where you do trade the pull backs counter trend as well (ffrank)

here am posting two charts. which pair would you guys trade? same h1 tf...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,933
  • Dec 22, 2010 7:52pm Dec 22, 2010 7:52pm
Quoting RisingSun
i agree with you to respect longer time ma direction as a general rule, except when you trade very short time such as seconds, where you do trade the pull backs counter trend as well (ffrank)

here am posting two charts. which pair would you guys trade? same h1 tf...
Definitely the UCHF chart seems like a better trade. So you picked the right pair, my friend. Also, this time of year is tricky for trading so wise to pick only the best setups.

Regarding the long-term MAs, if someone were to trade off the seconds chart, they could still use a "long-term" MA. For example, on the 10-sec chart, the 360wma shows price over the past 60 minutes. This is significant time period also.

Hope you're having a great holiday today, Rising Sun. Have you ordered your christmas cake yet?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,934
  • Dec 22, 2010 10:24pm Dec 22, 2010 10:24pm
Quoting Magic Trader
Definitely the UCHF chart seems like a better trade. So you picked the right pair, my friend. Also, this time of year is tricky for trading so wise to pick only the best setups.
i used to trade during this holiday time, only to end up with sad results - you need market forces to win this game. so i decided to buy a microsoft flight simulator and play with it iso trading.

Quote
Regarding the long-term MAs, if someone were to trade off the seconds chart, they could still use a "long-term" MA. For example, on the 10-sec chart, the 360wma shows price over the past 60 minutes. This is significant time period also.

true. ffrank trades 10 sec. let's hear how he likes it.

Quote
Hope you're having a great holiday today, Rising Sun. Have you ordered your christmas cake yet?

lots of sweets eating at this time of the year ... must behave myself
  • #1,935
  • Dec 23, 2010 9:25am Dec 23, 2010 9:25am
Quoting RisingSun
so i decided to buy a microsoft flight simulator and play with it iso trading.
Nice idea. I enjoy a spot of Starcraft, but a liiiiitle too intensive to play alongside trading!

Quote
true. ffrank trades 10 sec. let's hear how he likes it.
I like it Magic Similar thinking to me - I trade 5sec, but I only take my setup long if it occurs above 200EMA, or short if it occurs below 200EMA. I use EMA as opposed to WMA - but still use WMA for the shorter MA's.

Essentially - we know the market will do 1 of two things when we enter:
A) Move far enough to give us our profit limit without hitting our SL.
B) Not move far enough to give us our profit limit! (or not before hitting our SL)

Simple stuff of course - but if we can add a filter like you describe that suddenly increases our probability of (A), then we will be on the right road indeed...
  • #1,936
  • Dec 25, 2010 1:48am Dec 25, 2010 1:48am
greetings
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip so this is xmas.zip   1.3 MB | 275 downloads
  • #1,937
  • Dec 25, 2010 3:48am Dec 25, 2010 3:48am
Quoting RisingSun
greetings
Merry Christmas to all: Ben, FFrank, Rising Sun !!
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  • #1,938
  • Dec 27, 2010 10:39am Dec 27, 2010 10:39am
Attaching a chart to show you more what I've been studying. Usually MAs are used for crossing signals as for trend direction change or for entry signals.

But I think we can use MAs to specifically observe how price is reacting to them in real time. This allows us to get in earlier while still avoiding the ranging and whipsaws.

There is a lot happening in the chart, but just observe the green 240wma, which represents the 4-hour time period. As long as price stay above it, we're looking for buy opportunities. But about 20:30p, support starts to falter. That's our signal. And later we find a nice entry point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DEC27-EU1MIN.png Size: 121 KB
  • #1,939
  • Dec 27, 2010 5:51pm Dec 27, 2010 5:51pm
Couldn't resist as Tokyo market is open since yesterday. Caught worms in the morning session.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,940
  • Dec 27, 2010 6:09pm Dec 27, 2010 6:09pm
Quoting Magic Trader
--- Usually MAs are used for crossing signals as for trend direction change or for entry signals.

But I think we can use MAs to specifically observe how price is reacting to them in real time. This allows us to get in earlier while still avoiding the ranging and whipsaws.

There is a lot happening in the chart, but just observe the green 240wma, which represents the 4-hour time period. As long as price stay above it, we're looking for buy opportunities. But about 20:30p, support starts...
Good analysis, Magic.

You are using the candles. Am not too keen on the candles/patterns (there are too many to remember lol), but the ones I normally look at are the following:

--- If the open of current candle is higher (lower) than the previous candle's open, and price passed the high (low) of the previous, enter long (short)

--- Pin bars

Just my 2 cents.
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