Could you please provide me with some figures on the expectancy of the system. I have been trying to apply this over the last few months and keep getting whipped about by the markets.
Pretty much all if the trades I have entered have shown me profit only to turn around and stop me out at break even or for a loss. Granted The losses are not to big but I do wonder whether it would be beet just to take the profits off the table.
Could you please let me know since you turned to this approach of riding the big moves what your expectancy is?
I really do love this approach and it seems to make sense, certainly when you look at the charts it does, but the reality is more difficult :-)
Thanks for the help and contribution, you are one in a million
Sitting on my hands with this one.
Break of trendline and retest from underside.
However price is now range bound within the last 2 legs of a clearly defined ABC correction.
No follow through either on the bearish bar from Wed.
Still on the watch list.
Thoughts anyone?
Dan, Thanks for the Oanda link, I will check it out as at the moment I can only trade in full pound lots.
Hi Paul, as you're UK based, you could try SmartLiveMarkets.
They are a spreadbetting company, but i've found them to be good.
Their charts are good, as they use MT4.
Also, the minimum trade size is 10 pence a pip.You can trade at this size for ever if you wish, it doesn't have to increase after a certain time, unlike most other sb companies.
Dan, Thanks for the Oanda link, I will check it out as at the moment I can only trade in full pound lots.
Hi Paul, as you're UK based, you could try SmartLiveMarkets.
They are a spreadbetting company, but i've found them to be good.
Their charts are good, as they use MT4.
Also, the minimum trade size is 10 pence a pip.You can trade at this size for ever if you wish, it doesn't have to increase after a certain time, unlike most other sb companies.
Regards
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Hi Yogi..
Thanks for this. I have just checked them out and they look good. As long as I stick with the Major pairs, the spreads are quite good. But saying that, as we are looking for the big home runs a few pips here or there shouldn't matter.
I will transfer my funds in the new year and then I can stick to the rules on more realistic stops.
GJP, remember...Dan's not responsible for any trades we may take. The ultimate decision to take or not take a trade is each person's to make. This is not a signal service, but rather a thread devoted to training how to do Advanced Trend Trading and using current examples to help in the process.
Kind Regards,
NeoRio
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This trade was taken from my own assessment of the daily chart, not sure why you think otherwise?
This trade was taken from my own assessment of the daily chart, not sure why you think otherwise?
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Hey there, didn't mean to say that you based your trade on Dan's comments...I just thought that since you said "Hope you're right Dan..." that in case Dan feels the responsibility of anyone taking trades that he comments on, that there may be more pressure, or apprehension in giving trade setups...as he has stated this is not a signal service.
Again, didn't mean to say you took this trade because of Dan, just mention for everyone's sake and to relieve Dan from any responsibility for people's trading.
This NU setup looks interesting (for a long with a break above today's bullish candle...if we get one)...but I'm torn on this one as the trend looks bearish based on swing analysis. The Weekly TL and the 200 ema acting as support coupled with the 61.8% level getting a clean bounce are making me thing of testing the bullish waters out...but it's Christmas week! What to do!??
This NU setup looks interesting (for a long with a break above today's bullish candle...if we get one)...but I'm torn on this one as the trend looks bearish based on swing analysis. The Weekly TL and the 200 ema acting as support coupled with the 61.8% level getting a clean bounce are making me thing of testing the bullish waters out...but it's Christmas week! What to do!??
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Good evening Neo,
I know how you feel. Looks inviting doesn't it? Thing is I've just covered my 2 short positions on the bounce off that weekly tl. I'm only looking to the downside personally. I expect the tl to break soon.
Thanks for the heads up, Paul. I also noticed that we recently had a smaller AB=CD pattern complete on the NU...not that the down move is over, but just a point of interest. It's easier seen on the H4 since it was only a 250 pip move each leg.
(Disclaimer: It's Christmas week!--not the best time to be doing this!)
That said...
I'm not suggesting others jump into this trade, but it is something I discussed in my weekly analysis of a setup that looked to be forming. The AJ on the D1; last week, price broke resistance of 83.00, then came back to retest it and now we have a BUOB that just closed. I just set a buy stop above the high of yesterday's candle...with a very small position.
(Disclaimer: It's Christmas week!--not the best time to be doing this!)
That said...
I'm not suggesting others jump into this trade, but it is something I discussed in my weekly analysis of a setup that looked to be forming. The AJ on the D1; last week, price broke resistance of 83.00, then came back to retest it and now we have a BUOB that just closed. I just set a buy stop above the high of yesterday's candle...with a very small position.
Best Regards,
NeoRio
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The issue I have with this setup is we are missing a 50% confirmation. . .
The issue I have with this setup is we are missing a 50% confirmation. . .
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Good point...and you're right!--unless...you drop it down to the H1...though there wasn't an exact 50% retracement...it did pass the 38% retracement and got close to 50%. Still...not a trade for the books. The Asian spike that happened a couple hours ago got me in the trade...I'm now long the AJ.
i don't use fundamentals , but as an aside ...some states are broke...thier muni bonds maybe headed toward junk status .... this muni bond ETF is looking spooked
anyone know where i can find a good scanner ? would like to scan the universe of etf's and currency pairs for hammers , engulfing candles and inside bars.
i don't use fundamentals , but as an aside ...some states are broke...thier muni bonds maybe headed toward junk status .... this muni bond ETF is looking spooked
anyone know where i can find a good scanner ? would like to scan the universe of etf's and currency pairs for hammers , engulfing candles and inside bars.
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That's a great setup. No need for trendlines as it matches support, fib retracement, and candlestick signal. Well, almost candlestick signal. DanUK could provide his analysis on that.
My technical analysis with NZDUSD is exactly the same as yours! The confluence of the long term trend line and the 61.8 fib level as well as the subsequent bounce up definitely looks too tempting. I posted my chart in another thread and didn't notice yours till now lol. Personally the confluence of support(trendline) and the fib level 61.8 would give me the confidence to go long with SL just below the trendline, but as a conservative trader I would wait for the most recent trend(which is down) to break its relevant down trendline or maybe a 123 formation.
Trading is not gambling, it's tilting the odds in your favour!
On a side note, while trendlines were drawn by connecting relevant highs/lows of candles together, I would like to seek the opinion of everyone as to how they draw Support/resistance lines; do you attempt to connect the high/lows of candles just like trendlines or the close of the candles instead, or trying to incorporate both to make it a somewhat best-fit line? Your input is highly appreciated.
My technical analysis with NZDUSD is exactly the same as yours! The confluence of the long term trend line and the 61.8 fib level as well as the subsequent bounce up definitely looks too tempting. I posted my chart in another thread and didn't notice yours till now lol. Personally the confluence of support(trendline) and the fib level 61.8 would give me the confidence to go long with SL just below the trendline, but as a conservative trader I would wait for the most recent trend(which is down) to break its relevant down trendline or...
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Hi Maveri4k,
In one of Dan's early posts he stated his way of marking s/r was by picking levels and rounding up or down to 00 levels. This will sometimes cut through bodies of some candles and touch wicks of others. IMHO this is prob the way many approach this subjective issue. You could ask 100 traders how they do it and get 100 different answers. Each will have their own merits. Personally I find drawing a zone of interest rather than an exact level gives a better perspective. Experimentation is the only way to find what you are comfortable with.
This NU setup looks interesting (for a long with a break above today's bullish candle...if we get one)...but I'm torn on this one as the trend looks bearish based on swing analysis. The Weekly TL and the 200 ema acting as support coupled with the 61.8% level getting a clean bounce are making me thing of testing the bullish waters out...but it's Christmas week! What to do!??
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I've just sold this off the break of the daily pinbar, also off 61.8 fib and weekly s/r, and downwards trendline. Definitely not the best time of the year to be trading but its just a small position, Lets see.
I've just sold this off the break of the daily pinbar, also off 61.8 fib and weekly s/r, and downwards trendline. Definitely not the best time of the year to be trading but its just a small position, Lets see.
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Doesn't look that NU short is turning out too good...sorry to see. I didn't take the NU long I discussed last week, but it would be in profit by about 15 pips right now...anyone's call as to how it could go now.
The EJ short I took last week is currently at +243 pips...will hold till the 108.33 area to see if it breaks through that last low from several weeks ago...or if it stalls there.
DanUK's Advanced Trend Trading Strategy
