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  • #3,741
  • Dec 21, 2010 6:46am Dec 21, 2010 6:46am



This has been another brilliant posts.

As we digest your latest lessons...

Have a wonderful rest Sir Graeme.
  • #3,742
  • Edited Dec 22, 2010 2:12am Dec 21, 2010 11:03am | Edited Dec 22, 2010 2:12am
Quoting nomask
i wouldn't use a fixed stop and 20 pips per one seems little much for me if you entering in 5 min...
i had one loss today but it was just 6 pips..i always try to keep in mind the fact if I'm in the right direction that thing should be moving in my favor soon..if it doesn't ,i cut my loss short...can it be start moving in my direction after 6 pips loss..sure it can but most of the time it just starts ranging and i don't like to be sitting in a stall...
i believe in the necessity of 3x20 pips exercise in order to master in Graeme's teachings...
I'd...
I find it very hard to profit from M5 TF with a fixed SL. The %loss is significantly high. If one is trading M5, chances are, you are glued to the screen so better option is to not go with defined SL and quickly get out if momentum dries out. Momentum based breakout entries is probably the only way to get the decent % win rate (i.e. BE trade) on M5 TF in my opinion. Perhaps another possibility that I may explore is to place a strategic SL at the S/R level on higher TF (i.e. near tip of wick plus space on H1 or M30 when price breaks out on M5 range) Doable... but too much focus, patience and 'cellphone price alert management' required
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,743
  • Dec 21, 2010 11:36am Dec 21, 2010 11:36am
Quoting pipEASY
And I will admit...
Another fantastic series of posts Graeme. Now I see why you and Marion are good buddies :-)

Like Marion, is it safe to assume (during a stacking episode) that you also never stack another position until the most recent one is moved to breakeven? you indeed have an incredible way of clearly articulating your thought process on charts for us. They are amazing and your time spent is very much appreciated as always.

Your theory about 33% and 50% retrace is rock solid. Hope I have not missed this in your past posts but is it true that you never put limit orders for your probes at key price levels that coincide with your intended anticipation/hindsight? Looks like you always prefer to use price alerts in place of limit order to get the feel of price action during entries. Very innovative way of trading style. I will be signing up with a 4G phone soon just for trading :-

Thanks again for all your help and teachings. It has been a great awe-inspiring moment for most of us.

Best Regards,

Vee
Staying in my lane...
  • #3,744
  • Dec 21, 2010 11:54am Dec 21, 2010 11:54am
Quoting VEEFX
Another fantastic series of posts Graeme. Now I see why you and Marion are good buddies :-)

Thanks again for all your help and teachings. It has been a great awe-inspiring moment for most of us.

Best Regards,

Vee
I couldn't agree more. It's great to have you back, Graeme. Your brilliant posts are as instructive and insightful as ever and the work you've put in to help us learn your trading style is appreciated beyond what mere words could convey.

Thank you!!!

Kevin
  • #3,745
  • Dec 21, 2010 2:56pm Dec 21, 2010 2:56pm
I will be signing up with a 4G phone soon just for trading :-



Vee[/quote]

Be careful with those phones! Read this link from the USA Today about the real potential cost of the Verizon 4g phones.

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/columni...aig09_ST_N.htm

Just something my friend found before he bought one.
A woman drove me to drink, and I forgot to thank her
  • #3,746
  • Dec 21, 2010 5:15pm Dec 21, 2010 5:15pm
Quoting pipEASY
Good question Edd.

There are no set number of candles to consider. The same price interpretation that I perform on any timeframe is equally applied to monthly. Sometimes I judge with just 2 candles (engulf, inside, FB) or even just 1 candle (pin bar) or even 4 or 5 or more (stall, pennant).

It sounds like many rules but Edd, but thats all there is.

To upskill your price interpretation, 3x20 exercise which is basically open a 5min chart (or any chart, but lower the better as you can practice faster and more) [b][u]and enter in aim to catch...

---

Thanks Graeme,

Sincerely,

Edd
  • #3,747
  • Dec 21, 2010 7:08pm Dec 21, 2010 7:08pm
Good morning, all

Yesterday we spoke about

1. Going against hindsight which covers scenario against your higher timeframe hingsight.
2. Recommended take profit/diversification level
3. Effective way to stack and most importantly when to stack

Hope it helps with your trading.

As most readers will notice, I dont invent new things to say on a daily basis. An avid reader can most likely summarize my whole trading approach with less than 500 words. Yes, there are many factors involved with my trading approach and at first it might be daunting but you start performing it subsconciously.

This morning I would like to talk about 2 topics that we discussed yesterday but both complementing each other. They are 'making anticipation into reality' and effective probing.

One of the earlier post of yesterday, which was this graph

http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/4096/16331893.jpg

eurusd daily with completed daily candle

http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/4522/93729222.jpg

THis means that you should have a position/s on the long wick of the daily candle which is now at the best chance of survival todays pullbacks. It is ok if you missed it due to life outside trading but it is no excuse to anticipate such outcome and then not execute it as per your envision.

And where last night a trader would have successfully placed probes, positions. There are many opportunities that I can see,

eurusd 4hr

http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/845/76642701.jpg

eurusd 1hr from noon london time

So, we just had a FB completed on 4hr and it now a new 4hr candle at 12:00. Lets see what is happening on 1hr (while trading I always flick through timeframes as one may show opportunity but other doesnt).

http://img153.imageshack.us/img153/8550/86775159.jpg

Once probe sticks, once again I flick through all timeframes and I see multiple opportuntities to stack

eurusd 30min

http://img815.imageshack.us/img815/4024/48729903.jpg
  • #3,748
  • Dec 21, 2010 7:13pm Dec 21, 2010 7:13pm
eurusd 15min

http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/5043/83038162.jpg

And the 4hr candle completes

http://img525.imageshack.us/img525/8804/44206435.jpg

But this is only the start as the next 4 hr is also favourable. Rinse and repeat

Where does this leave us??

We now have positions as per our monthly hindsight.

We are turning our hindsight into our reality

eurusd daily

http://img256.imageshack.us/img256/4292/92618843.jpg

eurusd weekly

http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/9193/64667529.jpg

And if it all goes wrong. What is there to lose? 30 or 40 pips? Can you see how excellent r:r is encoded into my trading apporach and not a mathematical formulae that so many traders tend to apply with static xx:xx ratio.

Hope all readers notice that my approach is a cycle of similar actions again and again and again.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #3,749
  • Dec 21, 2010 7:36pm Dec 21, 2010 7:36pm
Quoting pipEASY
Good morning, all

Yesterday we spoke about

1. Going against hindsight which covers scenario against your higher timeframe hingsight.
2. Recommended take profit/diversification level
3. Effective way to stack and most importantly when to stack

Hope it helps with your trading.

As most readers will notice, I dont invent new things to say on a daily basis. An avid reader can most likely summarize my whole trading approach with less than 500 words. Yes, there are many factors involved with my trading approach and at first it might be daunting...
Hi Graeme,

You say you should have a position on the wicks of the daily candles and it's easy to see that in retrospect. Those long wicks on the daily candles stick out like a sore thumb after the candle has closed. What you have shown in this series of pictures is how to analysis the lower (multiple) time frames to accomplish the positioning of your entry so you have a chance of being on the wick part of the candle. When you show it after the fact it looks really easy but in real time it may be a bit more difficult to do. This has always been a problem for most traders applying what they know in real time to the right hand side of the chart. What you are showing here is certainly a skill that would serve a trader well if he can master it. The details you put into your examples is unmatched on the forum in my opinion.

Kudos to you and keep up the great work.

I thank you for your efforts to help other traders.

Merry Xmas and Happy New Year to you and to all of the readers on the thread.
  • #3,750
  • Edited Dec 22, 2010 1:00am Dec 21, 2010 7:38pm | Edited Dec 22, 2010 1:00am
Hope todays post highlights what we have spoken yesterday.

Today as a off topic and also in reply to one of the private messages received.

Do I ever use sell/buy limits or stops.

Yes. But least often these days

Im sure there are more scenarios to apply successful limit or stop orders but I use it mainly as a fishing.

Have you ever watched the charts wondering why it is stuck and not moving? And then you wonder which way it will move? And while you are thinking about it the price moves very sharply and hit yourself for missing it as this is one of the volatile breakouts Graeme talked about.

Hmm..

But how do you catch such sharp 10 -15 pip move. Not even graeme can execute that quickly as it moved within few seconds. I mean all we knew the breakout is imminent but I dont think Graeme could even catch a move that quick.

Correct. I cant catch a move that quick. Infact I have trouble typing posts in forums let alone catch speeding bullets

But I like fishing.

The act to place baits in the area where it might catch. I might lose few baits here and there but I know the better areas to fish that bring in those whoppers occasionally to take home. It only cost me time and few baits and the patience.

http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/4807/22591142.jpg

http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/1215/30899020.jpg

Another

http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/8451/16631048.jpg


http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/6317/56631744.jpg

Fishing has very low hit rate but you wont suffer losses as most often it will never be hit.

If it does hit but doesnt move, close it out asap for -1 or -2 pips. Usually you lose nothing. Sometimes little larger but you will have wins more often than loses when orders are executed

The key to fishing is that once it hits, within few seconds it should be profit. Anything else is a fail

Fishing provides one of the best risk:reward

Fishing has low hit rate as most orders are never hit. You will have high success rate when it does hit as most often it is a volatile breakout

If you find your orders are hit often only to find yourself closing it quickly, you are placing order too close to the current price. This improves with time and your executions become much quicker

Dont place orders at price where it has recently visited
  • #3,751
  • Dec 21, 2010 7:45pm Dec 21, 2010 7:45pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Graeme,

You say you should have a position on the wicks of the daily candles and it's easy to see that in retrospect. Those long wicks on the daily candles stick out like a sore thumb after the candle has closed. What you have shown in this series of pictures is how to analysis the lower (multiple) time frames to accomplish the positioning of your entry so you have a chance of being on the wick part of the candle. When you show it after the fact it looks really easy but in real time it may be a bit more difficult to do. This has always been...
Good morning, Dave

Thank you for the warm compliment.

Also wishing you a merry christmas and a safe festive season for you and your family.

You are absolutely correct.

Is it fear of participation or fear of ones own ability.

And it can all be overcome by a trader sending out a probe and reacting to its growth or death.

Most traders analysis situations, calculate their static r:r and then place one order. I tend to confirm my beliefs first by sending out one position then act accordingly to what unfolds.

There are group of traders who private message me that are currently watching eurusd, gbpusd, eurgbp to drop. And yes it did drop yesterday and hopefully traders did catch it. But if they missed it, I would like to go back to yesterday and drill it in again.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #3,752
  • Dec 22, 2010 5:05am Dec 22, 2010 5:05am
Hellow everyone,

Is anyone out there noticed the above pair discrepancy on the Price indicated on the order section does not matched with the one in the current PA on the chart? A difference of 4 pips. I just want to confirm if this is occuring to everyone and not only me. I am with FX Solution UK. I sent them an email yesterday detailing the problem but not yet receive any reply. Can anyone help me how to capture the whole screen?

Sincerely,

Edd
  • #3,753
  • Dec 22, 2010 5:26am Dec 22, 2010 5:26am
Good evening, all

It looks like very similar scenario as yesterday and monday for eurusd

Edit: Actually that is an ironic thing to say as trading is a repetitive cycle of similar scenarios. It is up to a traders skill to notice such general cycle and to be positioned accordingly.

Just looking at eurusd 4hr

http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/2496/32392653.jpg

I feel the first pang of price direction changing to go down.

It is an early assumption and small probes on lower timeframe is a very good idea.

edd ganuelas - Good observation. There are always small discrepancies between feeds of brokers. Nothing that can be exploited for financial gain on our retail level. Even with the discrepancy you will find the movement/direction is the same.

Sincerely,

Graeme

Edit: Apologies, I was looking at same eurusd chart thinking it was gbpusd. Edited gbpusd out of content above
  • #3,754
  • Dec 22, 2010 6:21am Dec 22, 2010 6:21am
eurusd got stuck in a 80 pip-range for the last 3 days and since I'm not experienced as much as Graeme, i' think I'll set an alert out of the range and stay out until then....
IMHO if you're not disciplined (it may cause a lot of pips if you over trade in such market type) and experienced well enough I'd suggest you doing the same..

p.s:i won't be surprised if this range doesn't get broken until the holiday is over...but my alert is on just in case...
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  • #3,755
  • Dec 22, 2010 7:15am Dec 22, 2010 7:15am
i was able to get in another leg of my millipede two positions in eurchf ....... first one was a probe and when that was in profit i picked a good entry and put in a second position. So I now have three legs.... cad/jpy,eur/aud and eur/chf

i have reached my 3 loss limit for today on entries so will try to put in new legs and additional positions in existing legs tomorrow. My losses in establishing the positions are small compared to my profit so all's well so far.

Only thing i worry about now is if the positions retrace and i'm stopped out on all positions at B/E ..... would be a huge blow emotionally for me because it took a great deal of effort to establish these positions and i'm not conditioned to see large fluctuations in my PnL.

Anyway many thx Graeme
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  • #3,756
  • Dec 22, 2010 7:19am Dec 22, 2010 7:19am
Quoting fugly
i was able to get in another leg of my millipede two positions in eurchf ....... first one was a probe and when that was in profit i picked a good entry and put in a second position. So I now have three legs.... cad/jpy,eur/aud and eur/chf

i have reached my 3 loss limit for today on entries so will try to put in new legs and additional positions in existing legs tomorrow. My losses in establishing the positions are small compared to my profit so all's well so far.

Only thing i worry about now is if the positions retrace and i'm stopped out on...
Excellent.

Glad to see that you have utlized probing first and that you have added position as your theory gets warmer.

May I suggest that you do not stop stacking when things are getting warmer. Keep it moderate and just one more position means alot down the track (could turn out to be 40 or 50 spare probe ammos)

For those traders who are private messaging me in regards to eurusd

You should by now have at least 2 positions as this is black and white scenario. If none, that is unacceptable.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #3,757
  • Edited 7:40am Dec 22, 2010 7:27am | Edited 7:40am
My vision of aura is getting hotter.

I see many opportunties and im sure most readers know where I might be stacking.

Currently I hold 4 sell positions on eurusd and 2 on gbpusd from today

eurusd 4hr

http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/9505/31156826.jpg

eurusd 1hr

http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/5818/99092039.jpg

All positions now breakeven.

Where does this leave us?

eurusd daily

http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/6823/95888955.jpg

Alls well for the moment.

Always expect the unexpected and move your stop loss to BE just incase this 4hr candle does turn out to be one of those absurd looking long wicked. There is nothing we can do if that happens.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #3,758
  • Dec 22, 2010 7:36am Dec 22, 2010 7:36am
How ironic to mention something might happen and it happens right after it.

eurusd 5min

http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/7871/54158461.jpg

now on eurusd 15min

http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/1766/93564960.jpg

Few of positions are closed out at BE.

Nothing lost and nothing we can do.

I detest funny looking candles with highly erratic movements.

Watch if it drops down again but very cautious as erratic movements like these are not best movements.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #3,759
  • Dec 22, 2010 8:06am Dec 22, 2010 8:06am
Probing again would be the best idea with eurusd

Start slow just to confirm that it will still go down with one position

Start with anticipating no retrace or less than 33% retrace on any 15min, 30min, 1hr

Assume the best possible scenario and prepare to lose a small probe for it

eurusd 1hr

http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/5495/60952943.jpg

eurusd 30min

http://img340.imageshack.us/img340/5135/53960781.jpg

eurusd 15min

http://img91.imageshack.us/img91/6483/18534021.jpg
  • #3,760
  • Dec 22, 2010 8:21am Dec 22, 2010 8:21am
Price now approaching .00 again.

The buy stops and TPs triggerd before has been depleted.

It is now sellers against buyers

Best scenario would be a hot volatile breach with no stall at .00

If you havent probed just before at the start of 1hr candle you have stopped your own profitability.

http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/1029/92976637.jpg
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