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  • #3,721
  • Dec 20, 2010 10:36pm Dec 20, 2010 10:36pm
Quoting geoffrod
Hi Graeme,
thanks again for taking the time to share with us all,
i have a question regarding what you have said below,
when you say 2000 to 4000 pips growth, are you meaning 2000 to 4000 pips movement of the currency pair or are you saying 2000 to 4000 combined growth in ones position on the pair????

sorry if this sounds confussing

cheers
Geoff
Hello Geoff

Apologies as I should have been clearer.

I definitely mean 2000 to 4000 combined growth in ones positions on one particular pair at a given period of 4 to 6 weeks. This is rough estimate that will help traders decide when to cash out.

At the above profit taking level, expected annual profit taking would be 12000 to 24000 pips per pair. And that sounds about right to what I achieved.

Ofcourse the net profit is less when it comes into your pocket as you need to cover your essential losses endured throughout the trading year.

Anywhere from 100 to 400 pips net profit per week is realistically achievable.

All the figures above are from personal experience based on the average performance of last few years.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #3,722
  • Dec 20, 2010 10:44pm Dec 20, 2010 10:44pm
thankyou once again Graeme, for clearing that up for me.
cheers
geoff

Quoting pipEASY
Hello Geoff

Apologies as I should have been clearer.

I definitely mean 2000 to 4000 combined growth in ones positions on one particular pair at a given period of 4 to 6 weeks. This is rough estimate that will help traders decide when to cash out.

At the above profit taking level, expected annual profit taking would be 12000 to 24000 pips per pair. And that sounds about right to what I achieved.

Ofcourse the net profit is less when it comes into your pocket as you need to cover your essential losses endured throughout the trading year....
  • #3,723
  • Dec 21, 2010 1:47am Dec 21, 2010 1:47am
Quoting VEEFX
I am glad you addressed this post Greame. For those aspiring to go full-time, it is best to build long legs with

Thanks for addressing this key topic and the one going against the hindsight.

Best Regards,

Vee

(sending from my new ipad from a shopping mall !!!!)
Cool..
  • #3,724
  • Dec 21, 2010 2:13am Dec 21, 2010 2:13am
Hi Graeme,
As ever great posts and more importantly great to have you back. I hope you are well.
I have been trading raw price action on 5min chart for the last couple of months. I have wiped out a $500 live account in the process but that's OK. One thing that strikes me is how much profit grows when you stack and then have momentum. My problem was once I saw this potential I ended up over stacking / stacking to early. As you say the profit when you get it right is addictive. I feel I need a little longer on the 5 min chart but I will know when to progress. The most important thing I am learning is if you are going to be in, you need to be in early! Merry Christmas everyone!!!!!
Ben
  • #3,725
  • Dec 21, 2010 2:58am Dec 21, 2010 2:58am
Has anyone been able to enter/stack any new positions today? Everyrhing seems to be moving counter trend today

I've already had two 20 pip losses so as per Graeme's rules only one more entry attempt left.
  • #3,726
  • Edited 4:09am Dec 21, 2010 3:58am | Edited 4:09am
Quoting fugly
Has anyone been able to enter/stack any new positions today? Everyrhing seems to be moving counter trend today

I've already had two 20 pip losses so as per Graeme's rules only one more entry attempt left.
i wouldn't use a fixed stop and 20 pips per one seems little much for me if you entering in 5 min...
i had one loss today but it was just 6 pips..i always try to keep in mind the fact if I'm in the right direction that thing should be moving in my favor soon..if it doesn't ,i cut my loss short...can it be start moving in my direction after 6 pips loss..sure it can but most of the time it just starts ranging and i don't like to be sitting in a stall...
i believe in the necessity of 3x20 pips exercise in order to master in Graeme's teachings...
I'd also suggest something addition to this..10 trades each with no more than 10 pips sl and target is at least 1000 pips..it can be very eye opening experience..
  • #3,727
  • Dec 21, 2010 4:14am Dec 21, 2010 4:14am
Quoting nomask
i wouldn't use a fixed stop and 20 pips per one seems little much for me if you entering in 5 min...
i had one loss today but it was just 6 pips..i always try to keep in mind the fact if I'm in the right direction that thing should be moving in my favor soon..if it doesn't ,i cut my loss short...can it be start moving in my direction after 6 pips loss..sure it can but most of the time it just starts ranging and i don't like to be sitting in a stall...
i tried using smaller stops but i just get stopped out too much and miss the big moves so what I've done is half my lot size even further. 20 pips stop usually includes spread so its usually around 14-17 pip stops. Since friday I've been able to stack 200 pips but nothing so far today.

I do like ur approach though and tried it but 5-6 pips would just be the spread in some cases for me, personally so far fro me a 20 pip stop works better but i'll continue to try to improve my entries

just out of curiosity when u say u had a 6 pip loss dos it include the spread? For eg if you were trading GU with a spread of around 3.5 pips it would mean you close the position when it moves against you by just 2.5 pips? wouldnt that kind of stop be very tight? Or do you mean 6 pips without the spread so that would mean around 9.5 pips?
  • #3,728
  • Dec 21, 2010 4:31am Dec 21, 2010 4:31am
Quoting fugly

just out of curiosity when u say u had a 6 pip loss dos it include the spread? For eg if you were trading GU with a spread of around 3.5 pips it would mean you close the position when it moves against you by just 2.5 pips? wouldnt that kind of stop be very tight? Or do you mean 6 pips without the spread so that would mean around 9.5 pips?
it includes the spread but not the commission which costs me 0.8 usd per each micro lot trade...
i'm posting my latest trade's chart to explain what i meant better...i enter with no stop loss initially if I'm watching the market...
the chart i'm posting is from my demo account which has higher spread so ignore the spread on the chart...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-12-21_1223.png Size: 76 KB
  • #3,729
  • Dec 21, 2010 4:43am Dec 21, 2010 4:43am
Quoting pipEASY
Good afternoon all

I would like to talk about going against your hindsight today.
Thank you Graeme, this is a great article and have been wanting to know more about trading against the hindsight since August when you wrote the posts starting with 1614

But I won't go crazy trading against the hindsight, it will be on occasion when something really obvious against the hindsight happens.

This is the direct link to the page where 1614 is:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...45149&page=108

Kindest Regards,

Cam
  • #3,730
  • Dec 21, 2010 5:07am Dec 21, 2010 5:07am
Quoting pipEASY
Good question it would be unfortuantely last for today.

I wrote yesterday that when I enter there are few things I do not want to see.

One of them (especially when I trade 5min) is to have the price retrace more than 50% of previous candle. I prefer to see less than 33% retrace which shows the lack of strength from opposition. Sometimes when you wait 2-3 5min candle you missed the whole opportuntity. Probe it first. Just add 1 position and watch what happens. If it grows then add again. For some psychological reason you will find probing with...
I like this post very much. It clearly explains how to read and trade 5M chart.

Thank you.
-happyTrading, maaj-
  • #3,731
  • Edited 5:50am Dec 21, 2010 5:10am | Edited 5:50am
Good evening, all

Nomask has just said the golden phrase.

"dont want to sit stuck in a stall"

Yes, that is arriving at a party best dressed but no one there.

Today is very similar to yesterday. There are no traders to piggyback on and you will end up alone at the party.

I like to further discuss about stacking.

Many traders detest the idea of stacking. Perhaps its from the fear of amplified loss. Stacking is your best friend as it does the opposite of what you perceive it does. Stacking is the tool in maximizing your profit taking opportunity. Without an addition of at least 1 further position, you are looking at a grim static risk reward that might slowly make you a winner but not a rich winner.

Stacking does carry the same magnitude of risk compared to the potential magnitude of reward. However, since you are striking when the iron is hot, the severity of a failed scenario whilst stacking is definitely less than the achievable reward. This trading approach itself is the best risk:reward ratio.

I find alot of traders jump in at the first sight of movement with 1 position followed by another, followed by another within few minutes. I do this when I know for certainty that it is currently moving with great momentum. And this doesnt happen often. Perhaps 3 or 4 times a week.

I personally like nomask's very tight approach as he has shared with me in detail of his analysis and the gentleman certainly knows how to defend his capital against recklessness. However, some traders just get figgity to trade with 6 pip stop loss. The difference is that nomark uses momentum when it happens hence a 6 pip stop loss when momentum in full swing is realistic. Infact if you judge momentum well your position should be positive almost as soon as you enter.

Fugly, if you wish to trade with 20 pip stop loss that is fine but use it as a probe. Probe is like a dispensable scout. Be prepared to lose plenty of them but when a scout sticks and survives, take as much as possible.

I use probe both with trend and against trend and use plenty of them.

This is a past example that happened last week Friday on eur/usd

Early in the morning at asian session I told everyone that I had positions going up and that it would break 1.3300 and if there wasnt any prolonged stall it will aim 1.3400. It was somewhat correct as price did break 1.3300 but reversed from around there. But I managed to take majority of the drop back down.

eurusd 4hr

http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/2129/42066429.jpg

eurusd 4hr

http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/4967/62579892.jpg

eurusd 1hr around 0800 london time

http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/7265/74464094.jpg

eurusd 30min

http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/5663/82610344.jpg

And I ask myself:

1. So, this could be the turn of the direction. 30min just had flying buddha and the 2nd candle (10:30) had less than 33% retrace.
2. Im only interested in big momentum moves which means that if there is any retrace it will be less than 33% preferably or less preferable 50% or worst case scenario a stall.
3. Lets just assume it will be less than 33% so open a probe with hard stop loss @ 50% retrace.

So I had a probe @ open price 1.33081 with SL @ 1.33220. A 16 pip probe. Tiny and cute.

Always assume the best possible scenario

Then...
  • #3,732
  • Dec 21, 2010 5:33am Dec 21, 2010 5:33am
Quoting pipEASY
Good evening, all

Nomask has just said the golden phrase.

"dont want to sit stuck in a stall"

Yes, that is arriving at a party best dressed but no one there.

Today is very similar to yesterday. There are no traders to piggyback on and you will end up alone at the party.

I like to further discuss about stacking.

Many traders detest the idea of stacking. Perhaps its from the fear of amplified loss. Stacking is your best friend as it does the opposite of what you perceive it does. Stacking is the tool in maximizing your profit taking...

Yes Sir Graeme,

This is exactly what you mean when you repeatedly said that increasing risk doesn't necessarily equate to increase reward.

Size doesn't matter.

It is the accumulation of proper stack positioning that brings the best rewards the market can possibly offer.

Thanks for expounding it further...
  • #3,733
  • Dec 21, 2010 5:34am Dec 21, 2010 5:34am
thx Grame and Nomask for the explanation
  • #3,734
  • Edited 6:10am Dec 21, 2010 5:36am | Edited 6:10am
The probe died within a pip. If only stop loss half a pip more it would have survived. Not happy but there is nothing I can do.

http://img525.imageshack.us/img525/6897/43331346.jpg

eurusd 15min chart right after death of the probe @ 11:30

http://img522.imageshack.us/img522/9689/73364021.jpg

I didnt enter at open of 15min because its where my probe died. But when price reached approximately half way down I looked at the current uncompleted shape of the 15min candle and start assumign again.

1. My first theory about direction changing is getting warmer
2. If this candle has no more new/higher retrace than it would be a perfect looking candle.
3. I want momentum to break that support

So I opened another @ 1.3306 with SL just above the small retrace 1.3318. This time 14 pips.

And I got it right.

http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/9344/35044998.jpg

Now I see red aura. This is the move of the day. I can feel it and the confirmation is getting stronger as the time goes

This is where one stacks but with valid reasoning on all timeframes as hell is about to break loose.

Still eurusd 15min

http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/4509/47726175.jpg

When things are right you will have multiple chance in a row to stack

And when the new 1hr candle/4hr candle opened at 12:00. I stopped as I was expecting a retrace as always. All 3 positions in little profit with 2 moved to BE. Even if i lose all 3 now it would have cost me -20 or -30 pips. Pocket change when you consider that this move is ALSO ALIGNED TO THE DIRECTION OF MY MONTHLY HINDSIGHT

And it doesnt matter which timeframe you switch to but I switched back to 4 hour.

http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/5871/39702238.jpg

What I should have done is continued to trade as there was no reason to stop but I was held up. This is what I missed, an opportunity on every timeframe for the next 4 hours.
  • #3,735
  • Dec 21, 2010 5:44am Dec 21, 2010 5:44am
And I will admit now it was poor management from myself as I missed the next 4hr candle as I was held up.

And this is what I missed out

eurusd 1hr

http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/1844/67679533.jpg

eurusd 30min

http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/2069/17922724.jpg

and plenty more on 15min

When I see blood like that I would cover the whole region in positions.

All would agree that market does not trend all the time. It perhaps give you 2 or 3 opportunties within a week that does move 100+ pips for you. And you are settling for 2nd best if market moves 100 pips and you take profit 50 or less. That is not professional. If market moves 100 pips I expect no less than 200 unrealized pips for anyone who is serious about trading professionally.

Probe. Probe. Probe.

And once a probe sticks there is a reason it survived.

Taurus just phrased what I was trying to say perfectly. Thank you.

Most traders trying to stack lose more pips from aimless stacking when those ammos could be used as single probes.

Hope todays explanation add further insight to when to probe and how to probe. Always assume the best possible scenario and make it into reality gentlemen.

Apologies but I need early night sleep today as health has been playing up.

Sincerely,

Graeme
  • #3,736
  • Dec 21, 2010 5:48am Dec 21, 2010 5:48am
When i read Graeme's posts i feel like I'm watching a great movie or reading a bestseller...
i just love the way he trades
  • #3,737
  • Edited 6:16am Dec 21, 2010 5:58am | Edited 6:16am
Quoting nomask
When i read Graeme's posts i feel like I'm watching a great movie or reading a bestseller...
i just love the way he trades

Thank you for the warm compliment it makes my efforts worthwhile.

Today is same as yesterday. No trades. Im doubtful US session has anything. It is rare for the market to not move like this but we now draw closer to a better day as we had 2 consecutive non-profitable days.

In regards to the above story I still hold onto those 5 positions. I thought it was 4 but my journal shows 5 so I have slipped one in there that I cant remember.

Good night all

Sincerely,

Graeme

P.S Placing price alert just above the open price of today.
  • #3,738
  • Dec 21, 2010 6:19am Dec 21, 2010 6:19am
Quoting pipEASY
Thank you for the warm compliment it makes my efforts worthwhile.

Today is same as yesterday. No trades. Im doubtful US session has anything. It is rare for the market to not move like this but we now draw closer to a better day as we had 2 consecutive non-profitable days.

In regards to the above story I still hold onto those 5 positions. I thought it was 4 but my journal shows 5 so I have slipped one in there that I cant remember.

Good night all

Sincerely,

Graeme

P.S Placing price alert just above the open price of today.
i guess everybody's off to shopping and spending their money for Christmas.. but you never know
  • #3,739
  • Dec 21, 2010 6:22am Dec 21, 2010 6:22am
Graeme,

It is getting clearer. Thank you for sharing your input. And by the way welcome back. On the monthlly TF, do you consider only one monthly bar or several bars?

Thanks,

Edd
  • #3,740
  • Dec 21, 2010 6:28am Dec 21, 2010 6:28am
Quoting Edd Ganuelas
Graeme,

It is getting clearer. Thank you for sharing your input. And by the way welcome back. On the monthlly TF, do you consider only one monthly bar or several bars?

Thanks,

Edd
Good question Edd.

There are no set number of candles to consider. The same price interpretation that I perform on any timeframe is equally applied to monthly. Sometimes I judge with just 2 candles (engulf, inside, FB) or even just 1 candle (pin bar) or even 4 or 5 or more (stall, pennant).

It sounds like many rules but Edd, but thats all there is.

To upskill your price interpretation, 3x20 exercise which is basically open a 5min chart (or any chart, but lower the better as you can practice faster and more) and enter in aim to catch just few candles right after your entry. Few candles right on the monthly chart is a huge reward while few candles on 5min chart is few pips.

Hope this helps you.

Sincerely,

Graeme
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