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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #266,621
  • Dec 15, 2010 9:10am Dec 15, 2010 9:10am
Quoting chazzle
Thanks chaps .... see you all later
the thing i realised with trading..is any position in the market is a winner..try on a demo..enter randomly so long as your looking for 5-10 pips u can win, problem lies with the losing trade wiping the wins out..

if mentally u can cut a loss quick..u can trade, i actually cant which is why i swing trade..it comes down to me simply not trusting my breakdown of the overall picture into the small time frame

if yur long stop needs to be outside the ascending trendline
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  • #266,622
  • Dec 15, 2010 9:18am Dec 15, 2010 9:18am
Quoting geniusztc
i am long @ 5634 .but i scared. GBP is so weak. where is the STOP LOSS position /?
5610. tight enough me think.
if you already bag pips from short don't give it back
  • #266,623
  • Dec 15, 2010 9:43am Dec 15, 2010 9:43am
This is all i see..price is dipping its toes into demand /resistance zone @15480/15644. cannot see any correlation with CHF ..thats been in a zone since 19.0gmt yesterday. i am looking for a bounce (towards short term UTL )around 15562 if it ever gets below that fascination with daily S2 which i have at 15633. Meanwhile ...i'm still scalping.
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All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #266,624
  • Dec 15, 2010 9:56am Dec 15, 2010 9:56am
Quoting kaspopsicle
This is all i see..price is dipping its toes into demand /resistance zone @15480/15644. cannot see any correlation with CHF ..thats been in a zone since 19.0gmt yesterday. i am looking for a bounce (towards short term UTL )around 15562 if it ever gets below that fascination with daily S2 which i have at 15633. Meanwhile ...i'm still scalping.
keep an eye out on swissy u will see it

text book correlataion (basically text book correlations, actually in the books) euro up, cable up, swissy down..
  • #266,625
  • Dec 15, 2010 10:22am Dec 15, 2010 10:22am
Quoting nAVIN2007

text book correlataion (basically text book correlations, actually in the books) euro up, cable up, swissy down..
except that today: euro up, cable down, swissy ranging....




correlations work in a perfect world, but these times aren't perfect...
  • #266,626
  • Dec 15, 2010 10:38am Dec 15, 2010 10:38am
my view ....
no comment!!!
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  • #266,627
  • Dec 15, 2010 10:39am Dec 15, 2010 10:39am
Quoting nAVIN2007
keep an eye out on swissy u will see it

text book correlataion (basically text book correlations, actually in the books) euro up, cable up, swissy down..
Yeah, Nav..... all due respect, but if i go with text book all the time i usually get thumped up the backside. I started out on the correlation pairings you're talking about ...got bitten quite a few times so i'm quite wary and eyes open these days. Nonetheless thanks for the heads up and back onto it for longer term. Good to see you mun. Gotta go now .Cu LO. k
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #266,628
  • Dec 15, 2010 11:09am Dec 15, 2010 11:09am
Quoting Nick35
my view ....
no comment!!!
I guess this is a good entry, because of oversold and upper trendline on a daily basis 23% of this last up movement. 1.5585 should hold, we have that 1.56-1.5605 that is holding at the moment.

Im long on avg. 1.5626, but the entry was supposed to be on 1.5606. my sl is 1.5670, I dont know if i should hedge at 1.5735 so i can reload at 1.5650, it depends on PA.

LETS WAIT UNTIL ASIAN AND LONDON SESSION.
  • #266,629
  • Dec 15, 2010 11:15am Dec 15, 2010 11:15am
Quoting kaspopsicle
Yeah, Nav..... all due respect, but if i go with text book all the time i usually get thumped up the backside. I started out on the correlation pairings you're talking about ...got bitten quite a few times so i'm quite wary and eyes open these days. Nonetheless thanks for the heads up and back onto it for longer term. Good to see you mun. Gotta go now .Cu LO. k
yup thats true..enough!! nothing works 100%
have a good one!
  • #266,630
  • Dec 15, 2010 11:26am Dec 15, 2010 11:26am
Reckon we're due to go long from around here,we're at stop levels on the daily from a week or so ago, plus we've been going down for 9 hours which statistically is very rare. However it didn't stop it blowing through the 4hr levels. Watching PA, looking for some upward momentum before targeting 1hr stops @ 56645.
  • #266,631
  • Dec 15, 2010 11:29am Dec 15, 2010 11:29am
Quoting Azinvg
I guess this is a good entry, because of oversold and upper trendline on a daily basis 23% of this last up movement. 1.5585 should hold, we have that 1.56-1.5605 that is holding at the moment.

Im long on avg. 1.5626, but the entry was supposed to be on 1.5606. my sl is 1.5670, I dont know if i should hedge at 1.5735 so i can reload at 1.5650, it depends on PA.

LETS WAIT UNTIL ASIAN AND LONDON SESSION.
strange sell off .....
i think problem about Spain debt has accelerated the movement down...and after 1.5640 lost many sl has gone....

i'm optimistic about asia session and tomorrow morning..
  • #266,632
  • Dec 15, 2010 11:37am Dec 15, 2010 11:37am
Quoting kaspopsicle
Yeah, Nav..... all due respect, but if i go with text book all the time i usually get thumped up the backside. I started out on the correlation pairings you're talking about ...got bitten quite a few times so i'm quite wary and eyes open these days. Nonetheless thanks for the heads up and back onto it for longer term. Good to see you mun. Gotta go now .Cu LO. k
As nAVIN2007 said, correlations are never 100%. Here is a picture of the daily correlation between USDCHF-GBPUSD -

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF-GBPUSD Daily Correlation.PNG Size: 29 KB


As you can see 1.0 is 100% correlation and -1.0 is -100% correlation (Inverse correlation). As you can see above, during the March/April and September/October months, there is positive correlation between these two pairs on the daily charts. Today the correlation stands at -42.6%

Visit http://www.mataf.net/en/tools/01-01-correlation for more correlation analysis on other pairs. This is a very useful correlation tool.
  • #266,633
  • Dec 15, 2010 11:46am Dec 15, 2010 11:46am
Quoting TauTrader
Yip,

I am out of GU shorts and will not enter again until I see a perfect setup. I am however going to short EU. The setup looks like a reasonable R:R on the 1hr.

More legs there, me finks.

Trade well!
Good day to you,

Off topic - Nav, just banged EU for +441 pips.Done for the year - have yourself a great break and see you around in 2011.

Regards
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  • #266,634
  • Dec 15, 2010 11:48am Dec 15, 2010 11:48am
That's daily stop levels gone too. Are we going down to 54933 I wonder?
  • #266,635
  • Dec 15, 2010 11:52am Dec 15, 2010 11:52am
could be a push to lose all the small baggage and trap some as well before reversing.
  • #266,636
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:10pm Dec 15, 2010 12:10pm
Quoting nunrgguy
That's daily stop levels gone too. Are we going down to 54933 I wonder?


My daily demand level is 1.5484-1.5570. Here is the link to my chart that I posted 5 hrs ago. We are just entering the demand zone now!

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...96#post4244996
  • #266,637
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:12pm Dec 15, 2010 12:12pm
Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you,

Off topic - Nav, just banged EU for +441 pips.Done for the year - have yourself a great break and see you around in 2011.

Regards
I assume this is multiple lots as EU has not moved 441 pips today. 10 lots @ 44.1 pips each?
  • #266,638
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:12pm Dec 15, 2010 12:12pm
keep it simple
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  • #266,639
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:17pm Dec 15, 2010 12:17pm
Quoting Nick35
strange sell off .....
i think problem about Spain debt has accelerated the movement down...and after 1.5640 lost many sl has gone....

i'm optimistic about asia session and tomorrow morning..
no offense but yur chart u posted, with yur view no comment..u are trading with a belief of what will happen as appossed what is hapenning..

monthly is bearish..which means price over one month cannot stay at those levels..so why would u expect price to price go back

would the smart money not sell

plz explain why u think it is going up? ..just trying to understand yur logic behind the thought


Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you,

Off topic - Nav, just banged EU for +441 pips.Done for the year - have yourself a great break and see you around in 2011.

Regards
u too buddy..no doubt next year we back!!!..its great to see us both pass another year still around. cheers bru
  • #266,640
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:21pm Dec 15, 2010 12:21pm
Quoting kaspopsicle
This is all i see..price is dipping its toes into demand /resistance zone @15480/15644. cannot see any correlation with CHF ..thats been in a zone since 19.0gmt yesterday. i am looking for a bounce (towards short term UTL )around 15562 if it ever gets below that fascination with daily S2 which i have at 15633. Meanwhile ...i'm still scalping.
The hourly correlation stands at -1.4% which is exactly what you are describing above. GBPUSD dropping like it is hot and USDCHF is between a rock and a hard place, and it has just broken north!
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