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  • #761
  • Dec 14, 2010 4:57pm Dec 14, 2010 4:57pm
Quoting yogibear
Hello Neo, it's an interesting point about the 200 ma. I know it's a popular choice, but i remember being told that it was used more commonly in stock and commodity markets, rather than fx. How true that is, i'm not sure.
On my daily charts i use 20 and 50ema's, and also have the 100 and 250, which is the weekly 20 and 50 obviously. This just helps me gauge the longer term trend, without having to toggle back and forth between screens.
Obviously a trader should use the ma's he is personally comfortable with, i guess you could make a case for any...
Right, I guess the difference isn't that great. But indeed, the 200ema (exponential) is the MA that several "pro traders/mentors" say the "market makers/institutional traders/hedge funds/banks" use in the Forex market.

I used to use the 100ma and I have found that it is very similar to the 200ema...but lower than 100 is too tight for me...since I don't trade MA crosses.

Kind Regards
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #762
  • Dec 14, 2010 4:57pm Dec 14, 2010 4:57pm
Hi Gang,

Just reread the whole thread again today to try and ingrain the method into my brain!!

I've just finished working through a few pairs and was very pleased with myself when I came across the E/U. In downtrend, pinbar forming off 1.34/1.35 area, double fib confluence. Very nice I thought. Saved the screenshot and logged on to FF only to find I've been beaten to it!!

It was pleasing to see that my chart matched yours Dan!

PS. Dan, the S/R lines on my chart were taken from a weekly chart zoomed out. When dropping down to the daily timeframe, there are other areas of s/r that now show up. Should I be drawing these on the chart aswell???
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  • #763
  • Dec 14, 2010 5:12pm Dec 14, 2010 5:12pm
Dan, I've just been looking at U/J. The main trendline on my chart is the same as yours but I'm a little confused by the smaller upward trendline you have on your chart.

The start of this trendline is at the swing low. How soon after this candle are you able to draw in the line? If I was drawing the trendline, I wouldn't have started to plot it until the BUOB (the one that you traded)was formed and therefore wouldn't have even considered that BUOB as tradeable. Hope I've made some sort of sense!

The BEOB that formed yesterday was at 61.8 Fib of last down swing and off the 84/85 area caught my eye. Although the trendline has been broken this area of S/R hadn't. I thought this could continue the downtrend????

Thanks

Mark
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  • #764
  • Dec 15, 2010 2:21am Dec 15, 2010 2:21am
Quoting NeoRio
Right, I guess the difference isn't that great. But indeed, the 200ema (exponential) is the MA that several "pro traders/mentors" say the "market makers/institutional traders/hedge funds/banks" use in the Forex market.

I used to use the 100ma and I have found that it is very similar to the 200ema...but lower than 100 is too tight for me...since I don't trade MA crosses.

Kind Regards
Hi,

I use the 200 EMA as well (not as a cross, but as an indication when to watch price action for an entry). For me the main difference between the EMAs is the scale. If you do 200 EMA crosses, or use them as S/R you'd expect for a move generated by that to last longer and bring in more pips than a move/signal generated by the 20 or 50 EMA.

BTW: on my chart EURUSD pinbar on the Daily chart off the 200 EMA. Woke up excited as a kid in the candy shop (actually I am in a trade already).

Kindest Regards,

Cam
  • #765
  • Dec 15, 2010 3:14am Dec 15, 2010 3:14am
Great thread! I thoroughly enjoyed the charts you guys have posted.

Helps lockdown and understand what you guys are watching and perhaps even considering to take up the trade if it meets my own criterias!

Keep it up!
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #766
  • Dec 15, 2010 3:59am Dec 15, 2010 3:59am
Quoting DanUK
I currently favour longs on U/J... mainly because I am long off of the bullish outside bar marked on my chart! I am holding onto this trade because of the potential upside target... last time price made it this low it climbed around 7000 pips!
Thanks for posting your new charts Dan. It's very helpful. I think that I and others, need to first get the hang of the trend direction. This isn't always such a clear cut thing. So your charts and your analysis are quite valuable.

Also, I have to agree 100% with your advice to concentrate on the daily TF. If we can't trade that well, then the 4H is a non-starter.

Finally, I want to say that there are things posted on here that isn't reflected in Dan's method. While interesting, I hope we don't start adding or endorsing anything but what Dan has already laid out. It may be confusing to people just coming to the thread. Thanks.
  • #767
  • Dec 15, 2010 6:09am Dec 15, 2010 6:09am
Quoting Magic Trader
Finally, I want to say that there are things posted on here that isn't reflected in Dan's method. While interesting, I hope we don't start adding or endorsing anything but what Dan has already laid out. It may be confusing to people just coming to the thread. Thanks.
Totally agree...if I'm one of those people, please let me know.

I took a UJ long at the same level Dan did...after reading his post!--since price came back to the same area! Heh. I did wonder though: Could we have entered long 60'ish pips earlier...off the small IB the day before?

Kind Regards,
Neo
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #768
  • Dec 15, 2010 6:58am Dec 15, 2010 6:58am
We had nice entry signal , 4H pinbar with confluence.
I like idea of separate web-site with real-time market analysis. Ready to participate)

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Per aspera ad astra
  • #769
  • Dec 15, 2010 11:55am Dec 15, 2010 11:55am
Quoting HxMark
Hi Gang,

Just reread the whole thread again today to try and ingrain the method into my brain!!

I've just finished working through a few pairs and was very pleased with myself when I came across the E/U. In downtrend, pinbar forming off 1.34/1.35 area, double fib confluence. Very nice I thought. Saved the screenshot and logged on to FF only to find I've been beaten to it!!

It was pleasing to see that my chart matched yours Dan!

PS. Dan, the S/R lines on my chart were taken from a weekly chart zoomed out. When dropping down to the daily timeframe,...
Hi Mark,

Nice chart. That E/U short should be up around 90 pips now... hopefully we will see that continue to grow!

I think you've got the correct S/R levels on your chart. I believe it is these "key" areas that are of most interest to us - they tend to be the areas that really move the market (or tend to cap it during retracements, such as we have seen today/yesterday). My advice would be to keep it simple and stick to these levels and more or less disregard S/R that appears below the weekly timeframe. I'm not saying they can't be used but for the purposes of this method they are not required.

Regards,

Dan
  • #770
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:05pm Dec 15, 2010 12:05pm
Quoting HxMark
Dan, I've just been looking at U/J. The main trendline on my chart is the same as yours but I'm a little confused by the smaller upward trendline you have on your chart.

The start of this trendline is at the swing low. How soon after this candle are you able to draw in the line? If I was drawing the trendline, I wouldn't have started to plot it until the BUOB (the one that you traded)was formed and therefore wouldn't have even considered that BUOB as tradeable. Hope I've made some sort of sense!

The BEOB that formed yesterday was at 61.8 Fib...
Hi Mark,

That trendline is a "developing" trendline - I perhaps should not have posted a chart with it on but I occasionally keep my line on potential/developing trendlines if the situation warrants it.

In this particular instance (going back to early November) I was short U/J and was anticipating the 83.00 level to cap the retracement but as it didn't (and price broke up above it) I considered the possibility of a trend change taking place. When this happens I will look for a candlestick pattern to confirm my thinking on a retracement... which happened when price came back down to test 83.00 and formed a nice looking BUOB.

Technically speaking (so far as my theory goes at least) the trendline is not valid it is only considered "developing". If however this swing manages to get above the recent highs (of about 84.30) then I will consider it to be a technically valid trendline.

I hope that makes things a bit clearer!

Regards,

Dan
  • #771
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:11pm Dec 15, 2010 12:11pm
Quoting fartist
Great thread! I thoroughly enjoyed the charts you guys have posted.

Helps lockdown and understand what you guys are watching and perhaps even considering to take up the trade if it meets my own criterias!

Keep it up!
Good stuff! Hopefully no one will take anything posted as trade signals as that's not the intention but with a bit of luck newbies might be able to use some of the analysis posted to support their own (as you suggest).

Regards,

Dan
  • #772
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:24pm Dec 15, 2010 12:24pm
I love the idea of a watch list. I watch this thread daily at least. It's nice to see what others are thinking, I know I've seen things others saying no to a trade because of something they saw that I missed and it saved me money.

This is also great cause i'm trying so hard to move into a longer term trading and I'm having a harder time with this than i have with most things in my life. It's helping me a lot.

Good luck and happy trades

Simple
A woman drove me to drink, and I forgot to thank her
  • #773
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:27pm Dec 15, 2010 12:27pm
Quoting DanUK
Technically speaking (so far as my theory goes at least) the trendline is not valid it is only considered "developing". If however this swing manages to get above the recent highs (of about 84.30) then I will consider it to be a technically valid trendline.
Dan, I was thinking the trendline is used as a gauge to where possible entries may exist. Ideally they would point to strong s/r areas. And if they match up with 50% fibs, all the better.

Or in this instance, are you saying that a break of the trendline may mean a trend change? In which case the setup may be invalid.

Thanks.
  • #774
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:29pm Dec 15, 2010 12:29pm
Quoting Magic Trader
Thanks for posting your new charts Dan. It's very helpful. I think that I and others, need to first get the hang of the trend direction. This isn't always such a clear cut thing. So your charts and your analysis are quite valuable.

Also, I have to agree 100% with your advice to concentrate on the daily TF. If we can't trade that well, then the 4H is a non-starter.

Finally, I want to say that there are things posted on here that isn't reflected in Dan's method. While interesting, I hope we don't start adding or endorsing anything but what Dan...
Hi Magic,

I'm glad to be of some help! It's easy to forget sometimes that it's not always easy to see things clearly!

As you suggest, I think it's extremely important to learn how to read a trend... as this is more important than the actual entries (in my opinion at least). That is partly why I decided to try and post some weekly analysis (rather than just posting the odd trade here and there) because I think it might help some to see what I see and I am sure also there will be times when others can enlighten me as to what they're seeing! Works both ways lol!

With regards to some of the things that aren't necessarily part of my approach... I haven't said anything yet as I don't like to appear as a thread Nazi! But I have noticed a couple of oscillators and the odd squiggly line appear!

I am not an anti-indicator person as I am sure there are times that indicators help however I would note that as far as this method is concerned they are an unnecessary diversion. I know, from my own experience that it is very tempting to put on an extra indy for a little extra confirmation but I think the best thing I did for my trading was to drop all reliance on indicators and learn to analyse price action and use the most basic of tools (support/resistance, trendlines, retracements) to guide my entries. Learning to read "price action" (to which I mean the movement of price rather than individual price bars) is an important step to successful trading.

Keep it simple and keep it focused. Success is not far behind that little statement!

Regards,

Dan
  • #775
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:37pm Dec 15, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting NeoRio
Totally agree...if I'm one of those people, please let me know.

I took a UJ long at the same level Dan did...after reading his post!--since price came back to the same area! Heh. I did wonder though: Could we have entered long 60'ish pips earlier...off the small IB the day before?

Kind Regards,
Neo
Nice one! I've actually done that sort of thing myself before when I've missed the original entry and price retraces a little (so long as the trade isn't technically invalidated it should be ok I guess!).

I don't trade IBs until they break the high of the setup bar so in this instance that would have resulted in an entry higher than the BUOB entry. However, even if we could have got in 60 pips earlier it probably won't matter too much in the big picture... if we hit a 7000 pip home run off of this trade will you worry to much if you missed the first 60 pips?

Of course, in reality we may not see 7000 pips and even if we did there's a good chance that greed or fear may have kicked us out of the trade or even a temporary down move in the overall uptrend (in theory). But my point is that the great thing about long term trend trading is that we can be a little more relaxed about this sort of thing!

Relaxed, stress-free, liberating (in the sense of time) and profitable trading should be the goal of everyone here!

Regards,

Dan
  • #776
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:39pm Dec 15, 2010 12:39pm
Quoting Ihor
We had nice entry signal , 4H pinbar with confluence.
I like idea of separate web-site with real-time market analysis. Ready to participate)
Hi Ihor,

Glad to see someone else ready to join in but can I just ask... are you profitable trading the daily timeframe yet? You don't have to answer that here but I would like everyone to consider sticking with dailies until they are profitable.

Regards,

Dan
  • #777
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:42pm Dec 15, 2010 12:42pm
Quoting simpleguy
I love the idea of a watch list. I watch this thread daily at least. It's nice to see what others are thinking, I know I've seen things others saying no to a trade because of something they saw that I missed and it saved me money.

This is also great cause i'm trying so hard to move into a longer term trading and I'm having a harder time with this than i have with most things in my life. It's helping me a lot.

Good luck and happy trades

Simple
Hi Simpleguy,

I hope this does turn into something that will be helpful to all aspiring traders. The one thing I would ask people to remember though is due to the fact that we are mainly trading the dailies there will be a lot of times when there simply isn't a lot to shout about! But when there is I hope we will all be able to chime in and create something that helps us all.

Regards,

Dan
  • #778
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:46pm Dec 15, 2010 12:46pm
Quoting Magic Trader
Dan, I was thinking the trendline is used as a gauge to where possible entries may exist. Ideally they would point to strong s/r areas. And if they match up with 50% fibs, all the better.

Or in this instance, are you saying that a break of the trendline may mean a trend change? In which case the setup may be invalid.

Thanks.
Hi Magic,

In this particular case we had both the break of the trendline and most importantly "key" support/resistance in the 82.50/83.00 area.

For me it is the "key" areas of support/resistance that are most important. Trendlines and fibs are always second to them but I do use them to help guage potential "areas of interest" that I want to trade from.

Hope that makes things clearer; but if not please feel free to continue asking.

Regards,

Dan
  • #779
  • Dec 15, 2010 5:13pm Dec 15, 2010 5:13pm
Quoting DanUK

I don't trade IBs until they break the high of the setup bar so in this instance that would have resulted in an entry higher than the BUOB entry.
Dan, would the setup bar in this case be the bar previous to the inside bar? You dont trade the break of the inside bar?

Cheers

Mark
  • #780
  • Dec 15, 2010 5:23pm Dec 15, 2010 5:23pm
Quoting DanUK
In this particular instance (going back to early November) I was short U/J and was anticipating the 83.00 level to cap the retracement
Ok. When I was drawing the key S/R on the weekly chart, the 83 level wasn't clear so I didn't draw it in.

I would agree with previous posts that establishing the trend is harder than it sounds.

Thanks for your help

Mark
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