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  • #741
  • Dec 13, 2010 11:58am Dec 13, 2010 11:58am
[quote=yogibear;4237522]
Quoting fartist
Hi dan! That would be FARTIST! Booms.

Thats a damn fine name you have there sir !
Made me chuckle, as i do have a very juvenile sense of humour.
When i was a kid, my grandmother taught me The Alphabet of Farts, much to the disgust of my mother.
It still makes me smile to this day.

Cheers
Ha ha! Your grandmother sounds very... inspirational!

Regards,

Dan
  • #742
  • Dec 13, 2010 12:03pm Dec 13, 2010 12:03pm
Quoting Ulterior
all you trendlines are advancely technically incorrect The line should not be pierced with price wicks
Tell that to my bank account

Just kidding... on a serious note I wouldn't worry too much about that. Trading is not an exact science, at least not the way I approach it. Trendlines, support/resistance, fib levels etc... they all act as a guide but they are not necessarily 'to the pip' lines. Nor do they have to be... I like my trading to be simple and easy. If I had to put too much effort into worrying about little details it wouldn't be as enjoyable!

Regards,

Dan
  • #743
  • Dec 13, 2010 12:11pm Dec 13, 2010 12:11pm
Hi Paul (and others interested in doing this),

I would be quite happy to see this sort of thing happen. It seems like the natural progression for the thread to turn to live/potential setups and I think we would all benefit from having more eyes on the market(s).

To make reading easier I would suggest that only one currency setup should be mentioned on each post. You can post as many setups as you want but if we keep them separate and put the title of the currency (or whatever) in the post title and submit a chart too, that would be great.

Regards,

Dan

Quoting paulwales
Hi Neo.

A 'watch list' would be as you are kindly supplying as your "Weekly Analysis" (which I am sure we all find of great benefit) but concentrating on trades that could potentially happen in the very near future. It gives us confidence when we see the same set ups and actions that our fellow traders are seeing. However, it would be unfair on you and Dan in particular as the only people supplying the analysis, I think we all should contribute.

This way of course we can look at more pairs, commodities and individual stocks as Dan pointed...
  • #744
  • Dec 13, 2010 1:28pm Dec 13, 2010 1:28pm
Quoting DanUK
I'm going to try and do a little catch-up on posts as I have neglected this thread a bit lately... starting here:



Hi NeoRio,

Going back before the "credit crisis" trends, particularly in the Euro seemed to be a lot more stable. I used to enter based on a bounce off of a s/r level but with the increased volatility of the current economic climate I decided to look for extra confirmation... hence my introduction of candlestick patterns. You are right in that you do give up pips whilst waiting for the completed signal but overall I believe...
Hi Dan, I just wanted to ask what criteria you look for when identifying key s/r. Is this the same as weekly s/r?
  • #745
  • Dec 13, 2010 1:42pm Dec 13, 2010 1:42pm
Quoting paulwales
A 'watch list' would be.....

This way of course we can look at more pairs...l
But would we just post our trade call-outs right here in this thread? It would seem that would be a bit messy as there are going to be many posts in between each call-out that don't have to do with the trade setup. Or is there a site we're thinking of using that organizes posts for each trade setup in a better way?
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #746
  • Dec 14, 2010 1:52am Dec 14, 2010 1:52am
I don't think we should place 'trade calls'. I believe we should discuss area's of significant confluence and the reasons we may be interested in trading from those area's. When they are reached, this is where we could listen to Dan's views regarding candlestick reversal patterns and make our own decisions on when to trade.

I do agree however that the thread could get a bit messy when we discover opportunities in stocks and commodities as well as currency, but why not give it a go so that we can narrow down the best opportunities. Dan can easily introduce new rules if need be, for instance, reverting back to currency only. But at least we will all learn how to read area's of confluence and candlestick formations by listening to eachothers opinions.

Regards
Paul
  • #747
  • Dec 14, 2010 11:37am Dec 14, 2010 11:37am
Hi.

My first attempt at uploading a screenshot (fingers crossed)

Looking at the EUR/USD. The monthly and weekly trend is down. The green trendline and S/R are from the weekly TF. It seems to me that the retracement is currently spiking through the 38% fib and just touched the 3500 level on the daily chart.

Neo, I have included the 200ema which is also in play, but could you tell me what the significance is of this indicator. For instance, would you be looking for a close below this line for a short trade?

Dan, I will be looking for a candlestick setup as well for confirmation to go short. As I write, the last candle is a shooting star which I know is not a strong reversal sign, so should I be looking for the next candle to confirm a reversal ie 'Bearish Engulfing etc'?

I am very new to this, so your thoughts would be appreciated.

Please be blunt and honest if I am missing something as I can learn from you people.

Regards
Paul.
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  • #748
  • Dec 14, 2010 12:02pm Dec 14, 2010 12:02pm
Similar to my last post. The EUR/JPY is in a monthly and weekly downtrend. On this daily it has retraced to 50% and touched a round number (112.000) Is this worthy of a trade if we get candlestick confirmation?

I'm on a roll now that I can post charts ha ha.

Regards
Paul
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  • #749
  • Dec 14, 2010 12:19pm Dec 14, 2010 12:19pm
Told you I was on a roll. I will stop now I promise.

The USD/JPY is in a monthly and weekly downtrend. The green lines on my chart are weekly S&R and Trendlines. The puple trend line is daily.

My observations are: Retraced and consolidated twice at the round number of 84.000 and weekly S&R but can't seem to break through. My concern about going short would be the daily trendline as support on the 50% fib.

My thoughts would be to wait until either weekly S&R is broken to go long (could be a trend change) or if it breaks the last swing low, go short.

Goes without saying to keep an eye on candlestick formations.

I am just trying to get a feel for what you are all looking at, so feel free to rip it apart if you want.

By the way, seems a bit quiet here. Has everyone stopped trading due to xmas looming? or maybe don't want to leave long term trades over the holiday period?

Regards
Paul
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  • #750
  • Dec 14, 2010 12:51pm Dec 14, 2010 12:51pm
Quoting paulwales
Hi.

My first attempt at uploading a screenshot (fingers crossed)

Looking at the EUR/USD. The monthly and weekly trend is down. The green trendline and S/R are from the weekly TF. It seems to me that the retracement is currently spiking through the 38% fib and just touched the 3500 level on the daily chart.

Neo, I have included the 200ema which is also in play, but could you tell me what the significance is of this indicator. For instance, would you be looking for a close below this line for a short trade?

Dan, I will be looking for a candlestick...
Im not to sure about your green trendline it seems to be a bit low, on my chart it is no where near touching price. Id double check that on your weekly tf.

About the daily pinbar candle, or shooting star, fomc is in 25 mins so this candle is very likely to change shape alot. I wouldnt be entering any trades at all right now.
  • #751
  • Dec 14, 2010 12:59pm Dec 14, 2010 12:59pm
I mentioned last week that I probably wouldn't trade anymore for the rest of 2010 but that I would watch the charts...

That being said, the EUR/USD has retraced to an area of interest... support/resistance in the 1.3500 area and multi-fib confluence (as per the chart attached).

If this ends up as a good looking shooting star I will consider adding to my current short position. But I will be extra cautious due to the time of year!

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #752
  • Dec 14, 2010 1:05pm Dec 14, 2010 1:05pm
Another potential setup, similar to the EUR/USD is EUR/CAD.

Support/resistance in the 1.3500 area, fib level and downward trendline.

Again... I will be careful, due to the time of year!
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  • #753
  • Dec 14, 2010 1:10pm Dec 14, 2010 1:10pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
Hi Dan, I just wanted to ask what criteria you look for when identifying key s/r. Is this the same as weekly s/r?
Hi NP,

Yes, when I refer to "key" levels I mean the major areas that you tend to see on the weekly that are normally quite defining of a trend.

Regards,

Dan
  • #754
  • Dec 14, 2010 1:13pm Dec 14, 2010 1:13pm
Quoting NeoRio
But would we just post our trade call-outs right here in this thread? It would seem that would be a bit messy as there are going to be many posts in between each call-out that don't have to do with the trade setup. Or is there a site we're thinking of using that organizes posts for each trade setup in a better way?
Hi Neo,

For the time being I think it's probably easiest just to post trades here (like I have above) but if it does start to get a bit cluttered or people feel that it would be better to get things more organised I would consider trying to setup some kind of separate site (but in connection with this thread) that we could all get involved in but in a slightly more formalised way.

But I think we'll see how it goes here for now. What do you reckon?

Regards,

Dan
  • #755
  • Dec 14, 2010 1:21pm Dec 14, 2010 1:21pm
Quoting paulwales
Hi.

My first attempt at uploading a screenshot (fingers crossed)

Looking at the EUR/USD. The monthly and weekly trend is down. The green trendline and S/R are from the weekly TF. It seems to me that the retracement is currently spiking through the 38% fib and just touched the 3500 level on the daily chart.

Neo, I have included the 200ema which is also in play, but could you tell me what the significance is of this indicator. For instance, would you be looking for a close below this line for a short trade?

Dan, I will be looking for a candlestick...
Hi Paul,

I think you are getting it. The most important aspect is to find the correct location to trade from. In this respect, I tend to favour what I refer to as "key" horizontal support/resistance levels. I then look for trendlines and fib levels that might at additional confluence.

It is at these levels that I look for a reversal pattern... so if we get a decent looking shooting star off of 1.35 I would consider trading it.

As I've mentioned before though, I would be extra cautious at this time of year. Christmas markets often seem even more erratic than normal!

Regards,

Dan
  • #756
  • Dec 14, 2010 1:26pm Dec 14, 2010 1:26pm
Quoting paulwales
Similar to my last post. The EUR/JPY is in a monthly and weekly downtrend. On this daily it has retraced to 50% and touched a round number (112.000) Is this worthy of a trade if we get candlestick confirmation?

I'm on a roll now that I can post charts ha ha.

Regards
Paul
The 112/113 area definitely shows up as an area worth watching but it's not a very clear trade. If we do get a shooting star I would only be interested in trading it if we get a good bearish close (i.e. lower than the open price).

Regards,

Dan
  • #757
  • Dec 14, 2010 1:33pm Dec 14, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting paulwales
Told you I was on a roll. I will stop now I promise.

The USD/JPY is in a monthly and weekly downtrend. The green lines on my chart are weekly S&R and Trendlines. The puple trend line is daily.

My observations are: Retraced and consolidated twice at the round number of 84.000 and weekly S&R but can't seem to break through. My concern about going short would be the daily trendline as support on the 50% fib.

My thoughts would be to wait until either weekly S&R is broken to go long (could be a trend change) or if it breaks the last swing low,...
I currently favour longs on U/J... mainly because I am long off of the bullish outside bar marked on my chart! I am holding onto this trade because of the potential upside target... last time price made it this low it climbed around 7000 pips!

There are of course no guarantees that this will happen but my chart should explain my "technical" reasons for going long (for clarity I removed the fib levels but they are there too if you are into fibs!).

Regards,

Dan

PS... That is of course just my personal opinion... I could be wrong!!

PPS... If in doubt (over Christmas holidays or anything else) I always say the best course of action is to stay out.
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  • #758
  • Dec 14, 2010 1:42pm Dec 14, 2010 1:42pm
Quoting paulwales
Hi.

My first attempt at uploading a screenshot (fingers crossed)
Hey Paul, nice to see you posting charts, thanks for contributing.

The 200ema is what I believe the "big boys" (market movers, etc) use on their charts. I have heard this from 2 mentors now, so I believe there is validity to this. I have also heard that the "big boys" only trade the H4 and up TFs...so I believe we are in line with looking at the charts the way the market movers do. That said, it is not suggested or recommended to "trade the 200ema". The idea is to use it as one more element of confluence to determine way the trend is moving. When both the D1 and H4 TFs have price on the same side of the 200ema, I feel that the trend is more easily defined. I try (my best) to trade in the direction of the 200ema (only take shorts when below it and only take longs when above it)...but I break that "rule" often. Of course there is always the time that an MA will be breached...and price will move to the other side...when that happens, it's nice to use your other "elements" to determine where and when to enter so that you can use them all together and not be stuck to one. My favorite "elements" to use in determining to enter a trade go in this order:

 

  1. 50% Fib retracement
  2. Round Numbers (the xx.00)
  3. Support and Resistance lines (hand drawn from the Weekly down to the H4)
  4. 200ema
  5. Stochastic (8,3,3 setting) used only for OS/OB and divergence/convergence
  6. Trend lines (hand drawn from the Weekly down to the H4)


Cheers,
NeoRio

Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #759
  • Dec 14, 2010 2:16pm Dec 14, 2010 2:16pm
Thanks for all your feedback guys. It seems I am not too far away from seeing what you see.

NP I will double check my trendlines.

Dan I will keep an eye on the EUR/USD. CAD and JPY for candle formations and decide what to do whilst considering the holiday period.

Neo, you may be interested in watching USD/JPY as you have highlighted 50% Fib and round numbers as your top two area's of interest and thats where price seems to be at the moment. And thanks for explaining the 200 ema, makes a lot of sense.

7000 pips ....WOW. Wouldn't that be a trade to tell my mates about in the pub (I wish)

Regards
Paul.
  • #760
  • Dec 14, 2010 3:35pm Dec 14, 2010 3:35pm
The 200ema is what I believe the "big boys" (market movers, etc) use on their charts. I have heard this from 2 mentors now, so I believe there is validity to this.

Hello Neo, it's an interesting point about the 200 ma. I know it's a popular choice, but i remember being told that it was used more commonly in stock and commodity markets, rather than fx. How true that is, i'm not sure.
On my daily charts i use 20 and 50ema's, and also have the 100 and 250, which is the weekly 20 and 50 obviously. This just helps me gauge the longer term trend, without having to toggle back and forth between screens.
Obviously a trader should use the ma's he is personally comfortable with, i guess you could make a case for any period. In truth i guess you probably wouldn't find a huge difference between the 200 and 250.

Regards
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