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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #21,861
  • Dec 13, 2010 4:28am Dec 13, 2010 4:28am
Quoting kandi
I'm sorry, i'm just studying JPY chart. I didn't read out all the post here. I'm sorry if i'm wrong, but i find "cup and candle" chart formation on USDJPY Chart.
Can anybody tell me whether i'm right or wrong? Thanks.....
cup and flag
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #21,862
  • Dec 13, 2010 5:50am Dec 13, 2010 5:50am
RANsquawk - Intraday option expiry in USD/JPY seen at 84.00.

This will suggest why we have seen the recent sell off.
Also USDX is printing fresh lows at around the 79.93 level further weakening the Dollar.
  • #21,863
  • Dec 13, 2010 8:18am Dec 13, 2010 8:18am
In a long term sell on the USDJPY.
Based on daily chart and fib with break breathe methodology.
Using 84.37 as stop loss barrier have 4 very small entries.
View to it hitting lows of 80.70 some time before Christmas.
  • #21,864
  • Dec 13, 2010 8:47am Dec 13, 2010 8:47am
Quoting seanosms
View to it hitting lows of 80.70 some time before Christmas.
Wow, extremely bearish. Do you have a chart you can post please?
  • #21,865
  • Dec 13, 2010 9:42am Dec 13, 2010 9:42am
I have no idea how to post a chart or copy one from my computer sorry.
My entry was on daily chart.
From high of 85.85 - 0% on fib to low of 80.28 - 100% of fib.
Using 61.8/50/38.2 as entries with stop at 14% maximum.
Brought stop into the 84.37 after it ididnt break for so many days.
Real target is 80.00. Could take a while but the trend si down.
  • #21,866
  • Dec 13, 2010 10:19am Dec 13, 2010 10:19am
Quoting seanosms
I have no idea how to post a chart or copy one from my computer sorry.
My entry was on daily chart.
From high of 85.85 - 0% on fib to low of 80.28 - 100% of fib.
Using 61.8/50/38.2 as entries with stop at 14% maximum.
Brought stop into the 84.37 after it ididnt break for so many days.
Real target is 80.00. Could take a while but the trend si down.
I agree price has been smashing it's head on resistance around 84.35 five times on the H4 but to no avail.
If 80.25 is the bottom, which I believe it may be due to fundamental reasons, a test of this level should be expected.
I'm currently flat on this pair and have been for a couple of weeks now. A test of the lows I believe would offer a good buying zone (and possibly a bit further south as there will be an unlimited amount of stops below this area).
We may get there but there are some strong support areas on the way down.
There's also the possibility of the big boys short covering coming up to the end of the year which will help hold us up too.
  • #21,867
  • Dec 13, 2010 10:36am Dec 13, 2010 10:36am
Well reasoned post fosking.
Once it gets down below 82.50 I will start to unload some lots.
  • #21,868
  • Dec 13, 2010 3:02pm Dec 13, 2010 3:02pm
Is it me, or do you guys see a male genital formed on the 4H chart of USD/JPY??

  • #21,869
  • Dec 13, 2010 5:07pm Dec 13, 2010 5:07pm
Quoting 4xmaker
Is it me, or do you guys see a male genital formed on the 4H chart of USD/JPY??

HAHA, ok, I see it too, funny associations you have...

But I admit I also saw a dick once last year,... but you need bollinger band to see a dick.
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #21,870
  • Dec 13, 2010 7:15pm Dec 13, 2010 7:15pm
Quoting realjumper
84.50 seems to be holding the climb further north back, and I know there has been some big sellers coming in at 84.30, but once that level crumbles, 85.00 will be the next hurdle.
I wasn't online yesterday, but the nice breakout from the flag was once again kneecapped below 84.40.....and the pa has now dropped back into the old flag channel. Still, this thing is persistant, I gotta give it credit for trying!!!

I'm out completely at the moment, FOMC should kick this thing one way or the other.....until then I'll just be a spectator....
Attached Image
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,871
  • Dec 13, 2010 7:58pm Dec 13, 2010 7:58pm
I have a stupid trade on ( re-entered short) at 83.10, and I dont know if I should kill it or await for a retest.

Hate when I dont check important levels.....and pick bottoms.


Quoting realjumper
I wasn't online yesterday, but the nice breakout from the flag was once again kneecapped below 84.40.....and the pa has now dropped back into the old flag channel. Still, this thing is persistant, I gotta give it credit for trying!!!

I'm out completely at the moment, FOMC should kick this thing one way or the other.....until then I'll just be a spectator....
  • #21,872
  • Dec 13, 2010 8:24pm Dec 13, 2010 8:24pm
Quoting kentashiburo
I have a stupid trade on ( re-entered short) at 83.10, and I dont know if I should kill it or await for a retest.

Hate when I dont check important levels.....and pick bottoms.
Anyone here who says that they haven't done that at least once, is a liar!! Learn from it and move on
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,873
  • Dec 13, 2010 8:27pm Dec 13, 2010 8:27pm
Is there a Cup and Handle chart pattern on USDJPY daily chart?
Anyone can explain to me?
Thanx.
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  • #21,874
  • Dec 13, 2010 8:37pm Dec 13, 2010 8:37pm
Quoting kandi
Is there a Cup and Handle chart pattern on USDJPY daily chart?
Anyone can explain to me?
Thanx.
IMO it's a bull flag

http://www.thetradingdictionary.com/.../bull-flag.php
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,875
  • Dec 14, 2010 5:30am Dec 14, 2010 5:30am
Sitting on top of some major support here. A break through support could take us to a low of 82.00.
The Dollar is weak across the board and the momentum is with the sellers.


USD/JPY H4
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  • #21,876
  • Dec 14, 2010 5:40am Dec 14, 2010 5:40am
Quoting fosking
Sitting on top of some major support here. A break through support could take us to a low of 82.00.
The Dollar is weak across the board and the momentum is with the sellers.
Agreed. The fibs (as well as MM lines) are being well respected. If the 38.2 fib goes then the 50.0 fib will be next in line at about 82.30. I would like to think that will hold any further drop, but if the sellers get the bit between their teeth while the USD is weak, further drops cannot be ruled out.....and if 82.00 breaks, well, Noda will be watching closely!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,877
  • Dec 14, 2010 5:44am Dec 14, 2010 5:44am
Quoting realjumper
Agreed. The fibs (as well as MM lines) are being well respected. If the 38.2 fib goes then the 50.0 fib will be next in line at about 82.30. I would like to think that will hold any further drop, but if the sellers get the bit between their teeth while the USD is weak, further drops cannot be ruled out.....and if 82.00 breaks, well, Noda will be watching closely!!
Spot on!
  • #21,878
  • Dec 14, 2010 9:16am Dec 14, 2010 9:16am
After bouncing off the support I noted in the post above, we are back up above the weekly and daily pivot with stops being triggered.
The sudden turnaround was helped by a Think Tank report on the USD which says the FOMC members will have a more hawkish bias next year.
Dollar Index now at 79.48.

DSF M1
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  • #21,879
  • Dec 14, 2010 9:42am Dec 14, 2010 9:42am
Purely speculating on PA now, if we see a break back below the weekly pivot there may be a bounce at the 50% Fib level at 83.25 to take us further north. Not trading anything.

WSF M5
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  • #21,880
  • Dec 14, 2010 2:04pm Dec 14, 2010 2:04pm
Quoting fosking
Purely speculating on PA now, if we see a break back below the weekly pivot there may be a bounce at the 50% Fib level at 83.25 to take us further north. Not trading anything.

WSF M5
Attachment
Updated the above chart
Just ran over a few pips due to news.

WSF M5
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