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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #21,841
  • Dec 10, 2010 6:11am Dec 10, 2010 6:11am
Quoting Alfie
might add that I am using enough indicators, signals & theories to fill a Hercules transport .. but the one that eludes me is an entry that offers instant dynamics .. even if only temporary, but long enough to take part profit & set stop at break-even.
Support and resistance plus trend lines (another form of support and resistance) will be able to offer real time entries and exits. The more indicators you have on your chart, although they are pretty and may impress your mates, will only lag your entries and exits, meaning you will be buying tops and selling bottoms which is why people blow their accounts.
Take them off your charts and I'm sure you will be back here soon profitable and teaching us
Let us know how you are getting on because there are some great traders in this thread who are looking to help each other and improve their trading, especially myself
  • #21,842
  • Dec 10, 2010 6:44am Dec 10, 2010 6:44am
I second that.

A healthy minimalism is key to success. Most of the time I dont even use trendlines, just general trend and a good moneymanagement.

The zigzagline itself is all I need.
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #21,843
  • Dec 10, 2010 8:22am Dec 10, 2010 8:22am
we've lost track of the original question: how to counter-act the capricious unpredictable moodswings of the dollar?

I got out of the U-J short because I didn't trust the sucker .. & not a minute too soon .. look at it now! without warning, went into upswing .. my modest profit could have been wiped out within minutes.

not because of supply & demand, oh no .. it went up because the dollar decided to clear the 80 .. it wasn't happy down there around 79.92 .. of course it's got a perfect right to go wherever it wants .. the dollar that is .. but when it does, it sure plays havoc with the best-laid plans!

& for some reason, nobody seems to take notice of that .. if you guys are somehow immune to the ups & downs of the dollar .. I must say I envy you.
  • #21,844
  • Dec 10, 2010 8:29am Dec 10, 2010 8:29am
Quoting Alfie
we've lost track of the original question:...
widen your sl maybe ?or stay out of the trade in uncertain market.there's a huge crowd to go long on usd above 84,but also there's no determination today in any currencies to make big moves.
  • #21,845
  • Dec 10, 2010 8:40am Dec 10, 2010 8:40am
Quoting Alfie
we've lost track of the original question:...
It had perfect technical reasons to recover (yellow line on my previous chart). It's good to look at interdependencies but these also translate in the pattern of the chart.
A valid reason to exit your short should have been the reaction of PA around the line mentioned. And yes it's supply and demand reacting on those levels, it's irrelevant if it is strong USD or weak YEN imo
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #21,846
  • Dec 10, 2010 8:43am Dec 10, 2010 8:43am
any ideas about where we could be heading now? i was expecting to see 83.1 earlier since yesterday, but it was holding up...
  • #21,847
  • Dec 10, 2010 8:44am Dec 10, 2010 8:44am
Quoting Alfie
we've lost track of the original question:...
I'm not trading today, I'm just one my laptop. Heres a M15 chart that I just pulled up. Beautiful bounce off the daily pivot S1 easy 50 pips profit. Support and resistance are king in trading, you just gotta learn how to use it. Those three last candles are looking rather bearish now though. Like I said I'm not trading today and haven't been looking at any charts/news so I would neither be advising long or short from here, but just by looking at those candles there is certainly supply here.
Don't be afraid of the market and volatility. If you want to make money the market has to move.

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  • #21,848
  • Dec 10, 2010 8:50am Dec 10, 2010 8:50am
Quoting Alfie
.. if you guys are somehow immune to the ups & downs of the dollar .. I must say I envy you.
Sorry for some more offtopic:

I love all volatility... up/down of USD/JPY/EUR/CHF...
If it moves I like it...

This week we had no real movements anywhere... thats boring... but can happen.... Will change very soon with certainty.

It really depends on what trading style you have...
I have no expectations whatsoever of the market... may come what may come...
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #21,849
  • Dec 10, 2010 8:57am Dec 10, 2010 8:57am
I think the most useful thing I can say to you Alfie is to trade larger time frames to get rid of a lot of that noise. Have a look at the daily/weekly charts and as pinkiaiii said widen your stop loss. Just remember to not over leverage especially trading larger time frames.

ps. remember the big moves like we have just seen is due to news. Always look at the daily calendar to see when big news is coming out and when you are trading smaller time frames get out of your position or tighten your stop loss.
  • #21,850
  • Dec 10, 2010 9:13am Dec 10, 2010 9:13am
Quoting fosking
Option 2 - Open up your chart on your desired time frame. Draw on the prominent trend line. If bearish sell at said trend line, if bullish, buy at said trend line. This isn't about predicting the future, it's all about trading what price is doing. Once the trend line is broken (with confirmation), look to change your bias and once again trade in the way of the trend.
Once again I'm not trading today but just to reiterate my point.
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  • #21,851
  • Dec 10, 2010 12:45pm Dec 10, 2010 12:45pm
Thanks again guys .. sure as heck didn't expect to get that much super intelligent advice in response to one sneaky post .. appreciate it very much

it'll take me a while to absorb all that wisdom .. oh well, I asked for it! a case of: Back to the drawing-board.
  • #21,852
  • Dec 10, 2010 12:55pm Dec 10, 2010 12:55pm
Quoting Alfie
Thanks again guys .. sure as heck didn't expect to get that much super intelligent advice in response to one sneaky post .. appreciate it very much

it'll take me a while to absorb all that wisdom .. oh well, I asked for it! a case of: Back to the drawing-board.
Stick around mate, there's some great traders here. It doesn't matter how much you know (or don't) there's always something you can learn in trading! I've been trading full time since moving to Germany a couple of years ago and after trading all day everyday there's still things you learn every single day, even if it's just experience and screen time. The market changes everyday and you need to be able to adapt with it.
Good luck mate and have a good weekend
  • #21,853
  • Dec 10, 2010 6:59pm Dec 10, 2010 6:59pm
Quoting fosking
Once again I'm not trading today but just to reiterate my point.
I didn't trade this pair either, but I did trade on EU. Although the climb from the bottom for this pair has halted for the past 3 weeks, it's successfully held above 82.00, which I believe is important. Under that level and the run further south might be a reality. However, it has consolidated above 82.00 and the week ended in a decent bull candle....not quite engulfing, but not a bad candle all the same. 84.50 seems to be holding the climb further north back, and I know there has been some big sellers coming in at 84.30, but once that level crumbles, 85.00 will be the next hurdle. Whether that level can be broken this year is anyones guess, the low volumes that go hand in hand with the years ending may make that difficult.

Having said that, I'll be looking to buy dips as long as we stay above 82.
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,854
  • Dec 10, 2010 8:35pm Dec 10, 2010 8:35pm
one thing I have learnt .. from experience I might add .. is that there has to be some Volume .. even it's only increasing from low.

firstly, because it provides hope of acceleration = Dynamics

secondly, it supports/ underlines whatever your theory (simple or otherwise) might be telling you.

thirdly, saves you worrying about active trading periods .. NY etc .. usually coincides with them anyway.

all those mad templates I'm using .. with my own hopeless additions & modifications .. at least they've all got a volume-window on them.

and one for ATR denoting life on the planet .. uh-oh, here we go again!

hope I've got that one right .. Dynamics will help you override the crazy Dollar!
  • #21,855
  • Dec 11, 2010 3:40pm Dec 11, 2010 3:40pm
Quoting Alfie
one thing I have learnt .. from experience I might add .. is that there has to be some Volume .. even it's only increasing from low.

firstly, because it provides hope of acceleration = Dynamics

secondly, it supports/ underlines whatever your theory (simple or otherwise) might be telling you.

thirdly, saves you worrying about active trading periods .. NY etc .. usually coincides with them anyway.

all those mad templates I'm using .. with my own hopeless additions & modifications .. at least they've all got a volume-window on them.

and one...
I think you're right, volume in relation to PA is very informative.
Still planning to learn VSA properly, just hate the fact that my broker fxcm doesn't supply proper volume information on Marketscope
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #21,856
  • Dec 11, 2010 5:00pm Dec 11, 2010 5:00pm
Quoting USD-Bear
I think you're right, volume in relation to PA is very informative.
Still planning to learn VSA properly, just hate the fact that my broker fxcm doesn't supply proper volume information on Marketscope
May I ask you a question:

How trustable are volume informations anyway? I mean, for example the market price is easily checkable and comparable with other brokers... but volume?

Volume is always very limited information, because the broker will only be able to post the "volume" of its costumers only?

I never used volume in my trading, but I do not rule out that I would like to implement it... but I have to "understand" it to do so.

Thanks.
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #21,857
  • Dec 11, 2010 5:56pm Dec 11, 2010 5:56pm
Quoting georgem
May I ask you a question:

How trustable are volume informations anyway? I mean, for example the market price is easily checkable and comparable with other brokers... but volume?

Volume is always very limited information, because the broker will only be able to post the "volume" of its costumers only?

I never used volume in my trading, but I do not rule out that I would like to implement it... but I have to "understand" it to do so.

Thanks.
You could be right. I'll give an example: on USD/JPY, the lowest bar of last friday december 10th, indicated on 1 hr chart gave High 83.59 and Low 83.44. The volume on FXPRO was 3183 and on FXCM was 2046. Who was right? The better question is how to know the right number?
Little luck is forex water. Learn all Trading strategies, then forget them.
  • #21,858
  • Dec 12, 2010 4:10pm Dec 12, 2010 4:10pm
Quoting georgem
May I ask you a question:

How trustable are volume informations anyway? I mean, for example the market price is easily checkable and comparable with other brokers... but volume?

Volume is always very limited information, because the broker will only be able to post the "volume" of its costumers only?

I never used volume in my trading, but I do not rule out that I would like to implement it... but I have to "understand" it to do so.

Thanks.
Yes we need large brokers for figures to be trust-wordy.
I read about e-signal service gathering volume-data from several brokers, but I have to investigate yet.
I'm sure applying some useful volume-data would be a huge attribute to our analyses.
For example the so often mentioned H&S's analyses mean very little without the attached volume data.
A book called "Master the Markets" from Tom Williams seems highly valuable in this respect.
There are some forums like "VSA with Malcom" and some others which are interesting.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #21,859
  • Dec 13, 2010 3:18am Dec 13, 2010 3:18am
Morning Traders!
This is what I'm looking at this Monday morning.

The first chart is the Yen Index Futures. We can see the Yen had a pullback up to the 50% Fib level before a drive back down to begin flirting and testing the recent lows at around 11.84. The chart is also printing a Head & Shoulders pattern which can also be seen inversely on the USD/JPY chart. A break below the recent low should put us driving down towards the 11.65 area. The Nikkei 225 has also seen some nice strength recently as traders are much more positive about recent Yen weakens and are expecting some more of the same, helping exporters and pushing up stock prices across the board.

The second chart is of the USD Index Futures where again price had a pull back to the 38.2 Fib level at around 79.10 before a further move north. We have not seen the same strength of the Dollar as much as Yen weakens comparing these two charts side by side. The Dollar has halted it's strong move to break above 81.00 with a pull back to the ascending trend line possible. Any break above the recent high and move up towards the 82.00 level looks likely.

The USD/JPY chart clearly shows the inverse Head & Shoulders pattern I mentioned above. A break of the neckline would make a probable move up to 85.00 in touching distance where long covering and sellers may meet hand in hand pushing us back down temporarily before another test of the high. The Ichimoku Cloud is offering a good buy signal as we are nicely above the cloud. This indicator is used heavily throughout Asian trading desks and offers good trend following opportunities. A rejection of the neckline resistance may push us back down to the first ascending trend line at around and just above the 83.00 level.

Right then, coffee and breakfast time!

Yen Futures H4
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USD Futures H4
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USD/JPY H4
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  • #21,860
  • Dec 13, 2010 4:27am Dec 13, 2010 4:27am
I'm sorry, i'm just studying JPY chart. I didn't read out all the post here. I'm sorry if i'm wrong, but i find "cup and candle" chart formation on USDJPY Chart.
Can anybody tell me whether i'm right or wrong? Thanks.....
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