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  • #3,641
  • Dec 5, 2010 3:50pm Dec 5, 2010 3:50pm
Quoting TradeStar
Thanks for the guidelines, nomask.

I was interested in knowing the kind of risk management you applied in terms of % risked per trade, to get to that 30%

If I understand you right, you have taken at an average 0.4% risk per trade to get this result. ( assuming 2% max for potential 5 losses)

Thanks again for your contribution

TradeStar
your welcome..
you're right..i used fixed 0.1 lot for each trade and in the statement i posted my avg.loss is 15 pips..my max.consecutive loss is 10 trades although its got some test purpose entries in that period..anyway ..avg being %0.3 and max would be around %3...just think about it ,i took almost 70 trades but one of them could cover all the losses and put some nice profit on top of the capital..
because its all about being able to build some big legs..although i didn't wait for such big leg to grow ,my largest trade was about 1100 pips and i added 22% of my capital on top when i closed it..
  • #3,642
  • Dec 5, 2010 8:38pm Dec 5, 2010 8:38pm
hello, could someone please direct me to the most recent pdf that Flyer or anyone else created for the thread?

much appreciated

A
  • #3,643
  • Dec 5, 2010 11:11pm Dec 5, 2010 11:11pm
Quoting ardi55
hello, could someone please direct me to the most recent pdf that Flyer or anyone else created for the thread?

much appreciated

A
Go back to post #3620, pg. 242. This link will direct you for accessing a complete pdf of pipEasy's posts as provided by Eklavya.
  • #3,644
  • Dec 6, 2010 4:40pm Dec 6, 2010 4:40pm
Quoting MephistoII
Go back to post #3620, pg. 242. This link will direct you for accessing a complete pdf of pipEasy's posts as provided by Eklavya.
Thanks Mephisto!!
  • #3,645
  • Dec 10, 2010 9:21am Dec 10, 2010 9:21am
This thread should not go to second page in the forum listing!!
Let's bring it back to the first page!!!!



TradeStar
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #3,646
  • Dec 10, 2010 1:20pm Dec 10, 2010 1:20pm
Quoting TradeStar
This thread should not go to second page in the forum listing!!
Let's bring it back to the first page!!!!



TradeStar
Lets just give this thread a reason to be up in the list again...
Here is a potential nzdusd trade...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=111
I'll try to post more of trades if i can get enough time for the people who might be interested..
Good luck all...
  • #3,647
  • Dec 10, 2010 1:42pm Dec 10, 2010 1:42pm
just saw the second one on the same pair..
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=112
good luck all
  • #3,648
  • Edited 3:59am Dec 11, 2010 3:49am | Edited 3:59am
Quoting nomask
Lets just give this thread a reason to be up in the list again...
Here is a potential nzdusd trade...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=111
I'll try to post more of trades if i can get enough time for the people who might be interested..
Good luck all...

Yes, lets contribute and bring this Treasure up to the surface.
-happyTrading, maaj-
  • #3,649
  • Edited 12:47pm Dec 11, 2010 12:34pm | Edited 12:47pm
because its all about being able to build some big legs..although i didn't wait for such big leg to grow ,my largest trade was about 1100 pips and i added 22% of my capital on top when i closed it..[/quote]
---

Hi! Nomask,

I hope you don't mind sharing your exit strategy on the above trade. I presumed this position run over a week. Is there any one point in time where you considering exiting because you feel the trend is changing? Do you used momentum indicator like the 5/10 EMA to guide you in your decesion? Also on page #3601 you mentioned about counter trade, meaning hedging, how big is your dd before you place your counter trade? And how long before a negative position turned positive. I am asking this because, if we could established a leg position that runs into months or even years, it could also possible that a position that went into negative say 200 pips or more could also turned 180 degrees and become profitable by buying time.

Thanks,

Edd

Thanks,

Edd
  • #3,650
  • Edited 8:02am Dec 12, 2010 3:49am | Edited 8:02am
Quoting Edd Ganuelas
because its all about being able to build some big legs..although i didn't wait for such big leg to grow ,my largest trade was about 1100 pips and i added 22% of my capital on top when i closed it..
---

Hi! Nomask,

I hope you don't mind sharing your exit strategy on the above trade. I presumed this position run over a week. Is there any one point in time where you considering exiting because you feel the trend is changing? Do you used momentum indicator like the 5/10 EMA to guide you in your decesion? Also on page #3601 you mentioned about counter trade, meaning hedging, how big is your dd before you place your counter trade? And how long before a negative position turned positive. I am asking this because, if we could established a leg position that runs into months or even years, it could also possible that a position that went into negative say 200 pips or more could also turned 180 degrees and become profitable by buying time.

Thanks,

Edd

Thanks,

Edd[/quote]



Graeme always mentioned about entering in both side of the market with low risk entry..When you're doing it you're not hedging but trying to capture the greater move.
I do not open second trade no matter which direction unless I move my first trade to break even..I don't trail stop but only break even.
and i only risk 10-25 pips usually 15 pips at most...
What Graeme trying to teach here was getting people experienced on low risk entries..Thats very important because if you entered 20 positions...10 b.e and 10 losing with 10 pips sl to establish one 1.000 pips leg..You would be risking 100 pips for 1.000 being 10x profit...
469300002010.11.05 12:24sell0.10eurusd1.417101.417100.000002010.12.01 19:041.314900.000.00-7.131 022.00
yes this trade took almost a month..made over 1.000 pips move in 4 weeks..
I already posted my entry before.When i thought that it might be turning up at the levels on the chart i was already started entering buy positions without closing my short trade..
1. i had quick move so i was expecting a quick retrace or reversal..
2.Price rejected the 1.3000 level and 50% fib level pretty strong..
3.That trade was 20 percent of my capital so nothing wrong to diversify for such big return.
4.if you have a reason that you see price is turning up thats where you start diversifying or in my case take your big profit and look for next move..
i do not use any indicator /maybe only macd on weekly or monthly to see if there is any massive divergence..
i think different than what Graeme does about emas..He's using the slope and distance to get an idea about the strength but i just think emas or any other indicators just useless..
I rely on price action and body formation..because its the price itself..
good luck all
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,651
  • Dec 12, 2010 10:57pm Dec 12, 2010 10:57pm
Hi Everyone,

I've created a custom indicator called the currency index (which I coded into Java) to look at an individual currency's strength. For example, for the USD, I look at the % change of how its done against other currencies for which it trades against in the past:

USD = {[USDCHF - USDCHF(0)/USDCHF(0)] + [USDCAD - USDCAD(0)/USDCAD(0)] -[EURUSD - EURUSD(0)/EURUSD(0)] - [GBPUSD - GBPUSD(0)/GBPUSD(0)] + [USDJPY - USDJPY(0)/USDJPY(0)] - [AUDUSD - AUDUSD(0)/AUDUSD(0)]} /6

This is similarly done for other currencies (EUR, GBP, etc). I think plot the currency against its ema, and if the currency is above the ema, its a +1 signal ... if below the ema, -1 signal.

Below is a chart for each weekly currency index. Its useful for things like EUR has recently been down, and CAD been up (last data point), so EURCAD is a good short (from weekly timeframes).

I also use the same for daily data, and can also use for 4 hr.

Regards,
EZCurrency


DateUSDEURGBPJPYCADAUD
2010.01.03-1-1-1-111
2010.01.10-1-1-1-111
2010.01.171-11111
2010.01.241-1111-1
2010.01.311-1-111-1
2010.02.071-1-1111
2010.02.141-1-1111
2010.02.211-1-1111
2010.02.281-1-1111
2010.03.07-1-1-1111
2010.03.141-1-1111
2010.03.211-1-1-111
2010.03.281-1-1-111
2010.04.04-1-11-111
2010.04.11-1-11-111
2010.04.181-11-111
2010.04.251-11-111
2010.05.021-1-111-1
2010.05.091-1-111-1
2010.05.161-1-111-1
2010.05.231-1-111-1
2010.05.301-1111-1
2010.06.061-1111-1
2010.06.13-1-11111
2010.06.20-1-111-1-1
2010.06.27-1-111-1-1
2010.07.04-1-1-111-1
2010.07.11-1111-1-1
2010.07.18-1111-11
2010.07.25-1111-11
2010.08.01-1111-11
2010.08.08-1-111-11
2010.08.15-1-111-1-1
2010.08.22-1-111-11
2010.08.29-1-1-11-11
2010.09.05-1-1-11-11
2010.09.12-111-1-11
2010.09.19-11-1-1-11
2010.09.26-11-1-1-11
2010.10.03-11-11-11
2010.10.10-11-11-11
2010.10.17-11-11-11
2010.10.24-1111-11
2010.10.31-111-1-11
2010.11.07-1-11-1-11
2010.11.14-111-1-11
2010.11.211-1-1-111
2010.11.28-1-1-1111
2010.12.051-11-111
  • #3,652
  • Dec 12, 2010 10:59pm Dec 12, 2010 10:59pm
See attached ... it makes a good case to short JPY now long term. JPY is at historic highs against many other currencies (ie: EURJPY near lows, GBPJPY near lows, etc), which make these pairs good buys.

EZ
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf ShadowOverAsia_Nov2010.pdf   332 KB | 645 downloads
  • #3,653
  • Dec 13, 2010 2:46am Dec 13, 2010 2:46am
lol..just made a stupid mistake..
i re-installed my mt4 for my micro acc and forgot to change the lot size to 0.1..
i realized that my trade was a standart lot after i got in the trade but good thing is i didn't make the second stupid mistake which is hoping the price coming back to where i entered and be profitable to close it...Because the market doesn't know whether i made a mistake and waiting it to comeback to my entry level to exit or not.
If you made a mistake you have to admit that "you" made the mistake.Cut your loss short.
Learn your lesson and move on..
Its time to move on now
  • #3,654
  • Dec 13, 2010 4:54am Dec 13, 2010 4:54am
Quoting nomask
lol..just made a stupid mistake..
i re-installed my mt4 for my micro acc and forgot to change the lot size to 0.1..
i realized that my trade was a standart lot after i got in the trade but good thing is i didn't make the second stupid mistake which is hoping the price coming...
It happened to me once. When I realized my mistake, it was too late and my account went into red-zone with almost -1000 pips. Anyway I was Lucky, because it happened on demo.

It was a lesson for me, since that day, I check lot size before enter any trade.
-happyTrading, maaj-
  • #3,655
  • Dec 13, 2010 1:04pm Dec 13, 2010 1:04pm
Graeme always mentioned about entering in both side of the market with low risk entry..When you're doing it you're not hedging but trying to capture the greater move.
I do not open second trade no matter which direction unless I move my first trade to break even..I don't trail stop but only break even.
and i only risk 10-25 pips usually 15 pips at most...
What Graeme trying to teach here was getting people experienced on low risk entries..Thats very important because if you entered 20 positions...10 b.e and 10 losing with 10 pips sl to establish one 1.000 pips leg..You would be risking 100 pips for 1.000 being 10x profit...
469300002010.11.05 12:24sell0.10eurusd1.417101.417100.000002010.12.01 19:041.314900.000.00-7.131 022.00
yes this trade took almost a month..made over 1.000 pips move in 4 weeks..
I already posted my entry before.When i thought that it might be turning up at the levels on the chart i was already started entering buy positions without closing my short trade..
1. i had quick move so i was expecting a quick retrace or reversal..
2.Price rejected the 1.3000 level and 50% fib level pretty strong..
3.That trade was 20 percent of my capital so nothing wrong to diversify for such big return.
4.if you have a reason that you see price is turning up thats where you start diversifying or in my case take your big profit and look for next move..
i do not use any indicator /maybe only macd on weekly or monthly to see if there is any massive divergence..
i think different than what Graeme does about emas..He's using the slope and distance to get an idea about the strength but i just think emas or any other indicators just useless..
I rely on price action and body formation..because its the price itself..
good luck all[/quote]

---

Thank you for your prompt reply.

Edd
  • #3,656
  • Dec 13, 2010 3:30pm Dec 13, 2010 3:30pm
Hi All,
This is a very good thread and I would like to thank you for keeping it alive. I really like Graeme's teachings. However, his method does not work without mastering low risk entries. Did anybody follow his 20/20 exercise with the direction given by the market open? I struggle with the entries and my demo account is going only down. Thank you!
  • #3,657
  • Dec 13, 2010 11:48pm Dec 13, 2010 11:48pm
If anyone is interested, I have coded a script into R (a free statistical package), in which I plot net non commercial positions. I can post the code here if anyone wants to use it. When the net positions are at a relative extreme point, most funds (and other large traders) are on one side of the market. When this happens, the market tends to turn the other way.

The COT report comes out weekly (each Friday reporting the previous Tuesday's positions), so its not that accurate ... but when combined with a smaller timeframe for technical entries (daily and 4 hr), tends to indicate major turning points in the market.

I've attached some sample screenshots (the data is from last week for about 150 weeks or so -- 3 years back). The black line is net non commercial positions, the blue is the 52 week mean, and the black lines are +/- 1 and 2 standard deviations.

You can look at net positions above 1 SD, then look on daily charts for reversal signals ... or if you are more conservative and want only the best setups, you can look at net positions beyond 2 SD's. Below are some dates where this occured for 2 SD's:

AUD net non commercial positions above 2 SD's:
7/28/2009 8/4/2009 8/11/2009 3/23/2010 3/30/2010 4/6/2010 4/13/2010 4/20/2010

AUD net non commercial positions below 2 SD's:
6/1/2010 6/8/2010 6/15/2010 6/22/2010 7/6/2010

EUR net non commercial positions above 2 SD's:
7/21/2009 9/15/2009 9/22/2009 9/29/2009 10/6/2009 10/13/2009

EUR net non commercial positions below 2 SD's:
12/29/2009 1/5/2010 1/26/2010 2/2/2010 2/9/2010 2/16/2010 2/23/2010 3/2/2010 3/9/2010 3/23/2010 3/30/2010 4/27/2010 5/4/2010 5/11/2010 5/18/2010

If you look at these these dates for the EUR and AUD (EURUSD, AUDUSD, and probably other cross pairs as well ...), you will notice these were major turning points which started decent moves as large funds liquidated their positions.

Just recently EURUSD net positions were near +2 SD's, then reversed down and EURUSD fell.

Overall, this is a 'roadmap' for where the market will go, but you still need good entries based off of technical analysis.

EZ
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf EUR.pdf   13 KB | 671 downloads
File Type: pdf AUD.pdf   13 KB | 520 downloads
  • #3,658
  • Dec 16, 2010 3:19am Dec 16, 2010 3:19am
Quoting nomask
Lets just give this thread a reason to be up in the list again...
Here is a potential nzdusd trade...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=111
I'll try to post more of trades if i can get enough time for the people who might be interested..
Good luck all...
nomask you said you enter with a 15-20 pip sl, does this include the spread?

and you said you dont trail stop but only move stop to B/E, at what point do you move sl to B/E?

Reason i ask is i find if we move our s/l to B/E at 1:1 ie at +20 we get stopped out a lot

thx
  • #3,659
  • Dec 16, 2010 7:19am Dec 16, 2010 7:19am
Quoting fugly
nomask you said you enter with a 15-20 pip sl, does this include the spread?

and you said you dont trail stop but only move stop to B/E, at what point do you move sl to B/E?

Reason i ask is i find if we move our s/l to B/E at 1:1 ie at +20 we get stopped out a lot

thx
You do get stopped out a good bit trading like this, at least I do. All you need is to get one or two to take off for you a week and you will more than make money on them depending on what you are looking for. Some people look for unlimited yield, never take trade off, others look for a swing. Your money, your choice.

I do somethings a little different than here, I found a way to have it work for me and keep me happy, that's what matters.

Good Luck
A woman drove me to drink, and I forgot to thank her
  • #3,660
  • Dec 16, 2010 8:49am Dec 16, 2010 8:49am
Quoting simpleguy
You do get stopped out a good bit trading like this, at least I do. All you need is to get one or two to take off for you a week and you will more than make money on them depending on what you are looking for. Some people look for unlimited yield, never take trade off, others look for a swing. Your money, your choice.

I do somethings a little different than here, I found a way to have it work for me and keep me happy, that's what matters.

Good Luck
i aggree with that...good trades don't care if you move your stop to b.e after 30-40 pips or so..lets say you sold on the upper wick of a daily down candle..at the end of the day if your daily become a down candle as your anticipation then move it to b.e no matter how far you are from your entry level..charts are posted and be aware it may differ from what Graeme does..everybody should do it at their own comfort level..
p.s:and remember Graeme always mentioned about beginning of the new candle ( 4hr daily weekly or monthly)...what happens at the beginning???wicks...which is the best but hardest place for "low risk" entries..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd_1.png Size: 54 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd_1.png Size: 77 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: overview.png Size: 50 KB
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