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DanUK's Advanced Trend Trading Strategy

  • #721
  • Dec 10, 2010 11:07am Dec 10, 2010 11:07am
Quoting DanUK
A/U looks undecided on direction at the moment and makes for harder trading. I will personally be looking to candlestick setups to guide me as to the right entry/direction.
Thanks. I decided to pull the plug at BE since the direction is unclear at this time.

Best
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #722
  • Dec 10, 2010 12:33pm Dec 10, 2010 12:33pm
Don't forget guys; there are other markets out there too. I was just chatting with a fellow trendy on PM about this one...

It's an LSE stock, ABF - the uptrend has been going good for almost two years now (that's the kind of move I like to catch!).

Diversification of one's portfolio spreads risk but it also gives you more opportunities and therefore more chances to look for the right trade. Being picky about your setups helps the bottom line at the end of the day!

Regards,

Dan
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  • #723
  • Dec 10, 2010 1:01pm Dec 10, 2010 1:01pm
Hi PipRiderFX,

Yes this is what I do. I use the daily chart as my reference point, I use it to define the trend and analyse locations to trade from. I then look for pullbacks and I do this on H4 charts and daily charts. That's all there is to it.

I would note however that signals generated on the H4 charts are not as reliable as signals generated on daily charts... and this is not because I think price action is any less reliable on lower timeframes it is just that setups on the daily charts are more likely to signal a large(r) move whereas H4 setups might only signal a short term move.

Anyway, the reason I didn't go into this to begin with is because I wanted to make it clear that the analysis is done on the daily charts. So long as you are analysing the trend on the daily chart then you can drop down to the H4 charts for a signal if you are also willing to accept that you will get more whipsaw-effect on the H4 charts.

I would also add to this that if you are getting "whipped" on the H4 charts please consider sticking with the dailies until you can make this work!

Hope that makes sense!

Regards,

Dan


Quoting PipRiderFX
Hi,

I have a theory which I was hoping you guys and girls could provide some feedback on. I have just posted this in NightMoves thread but since this veer similar I thought I'd post it here too.

I believe that Trend trading is more suited to daily charts where as trading the swings and retracements is probably better done on th 4hr.

The reason I say this is that when a trend gets into motion it really goes and hence pull backs on the daily can be a rare occurrence. So would it be right to say that you can trade in the direction of the major...
  • #724
  • Dec 10, 2010 1:03pm Dec 10, 2010 1:03pm
Quoting Windpip
Hi All,

I am new to forex but already with a bias for Price Action. My limited forex training comes from forums and from using a demo account for a couple of months. I have just finished reading the whole thread and I found it very interesting and educative. Thank you DanUK for sharing your knowledge!
I would like to be part of the group and learn from you.

[color=black][font=Verdana]However, I sense the risk that this...
Hello WindPip and welcome aboard!

I am glad you have found this thread of use and hopefully we will continue to keep things on track as much as possible!

Regards,

Dan
  • #725
  • Dec 10, 2010 1:04pm Dec 10, 2010 1:04pm
Quoting aus1way

Hi windpip, I was thinking the same thing.
Hello aus,

Haven't seen you around for a while (although that may be because I haven't been around that much!). Good to see you here though.

Regards,

Dan
  • #726
  • Dec 10, 2010 1:29pm Dec 10, 2010 1:29pm
I think I have managed to catch up with the Q&A and if I missed anything please let me know!

I shall now post a quick summary of a few currency pairs as I suggested I would try to do at the end of each week (although haven’t been able to these last couple!):

As always... support/resistance quoted represents "areas" not "to the pip" lines. This is not meant as trade advice, signals or predictions; it is just a summary of my current market outlook...

USD/CHF – Didn’t manage to make it above 1.000 so I continue to favour a bearish outlook. A break below 0.9750 would suggest the break of a “bear flag” that looks to be developing.

EUR/USD – My bias remains bearish on the Euro.

GBP/USD – Direction is not clear at the moment. The up-trendline has been broken and swing analysis suggests the possibility of a downtrend developing. A clear bearish signal around 1.5800 would get me in but so far I haven’t seen anything worth trading.

USD/JPY – Tuesday’s candle turned into a very nice bullish outside bar off of support at 83.00 – could be the signal that get’s the developing uptrend underway!

AUD/USD – Price has been ranging for quite some time now and I haven’t seen any tradeable setups lately. The uptrend remains intact for the time being but I am wary of price failing to break 1.000.

USD/CAD – The comment I made last time seems to be true still: The downtrend (albeit rather sideways at the moment) still remains intact. I suggested last week that I would expect support/resistance at 1.0200/1.0300 to hold if the downtrend is going to continue... which so far it has!

All in all the markets haven’t been great these last few weeks… a lot of up and down but no major progress anywhere! Christmas is approaching and the markets tend to get filled with mince pies and champagne at this time of year and it doesn’t make for good trading. This week has probably been my last trading week of 2010, although I will be monitoring charts for possible trades next week if they look very good!

2010 has been a very interesting (trading) year for me. It has been a very profitable year and most importantly I have struck a much better balance between my trading life and my non-trading life. The beauty of longer term trading is that I get much more time to spend with my friends and family and that is the aim at the end of the day!

So good luck to everybody for 2011; may it be a good year for us all!

Regards,

Dan
  • #727
  • Dec 10, 2010 2:09pm Dec 10, 2010 2:09pm
Quoting DanUK
I shall now post a quick summary of a few currency pairs as I suggested I would try to do at the end of each week (although haven’t been able to these last couple!)
Very good analysis, Dan. Thank you!

Best,
Neo
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #728
  • Dec 10, 2010 2:16pm Dec 10, 2010 2:16pm
Quoting DanUK
GBP/USD A clear bearish signal around 1.5800 would get me in but so far I haven’t seen anything worth trading.
I suppose you mean a candlestick formation on the D1 when you say "bearish signal"? Since the last 5 D1 candles have been seemingly consolidation candles (indecision candles), does it make it harder to read a forthcoming "signal" candle to trade off of?
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #729
  • Dec 11, 2010 1:56am Dec 11, 2010 1:56am
For those interested, here is my weekly analysis.

Weekly Analysis

Kind Regards,
NeoRio
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #730
  • Dec 11, 2010 3:03am Dec 11, 2010 3:03am
Quoting NeoRio
For those interested, here is my weekly analysis.

Weekly Analysis

Kind Regards,
NeoRio
Thanks a lot, Neo -this is an excellent summary and analysis.
  • #731
  • Dec 11, 2010 9:50pm Dec 11, 2010 9:50pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi fartist (could we get a little clarification on that handle... is it fart-ist or f-artist! Sorry... my childish mind is amusing me at the moment),

Under this strategy it is important to hold your positions for as long as they are technically relevant. I will hold my positions over the weekend and for as long as the chart tells me it makes sense to.

Regards,

Dan
Hi dan! That would be FARTIST! Booms.

Thanks for sharing, because sometimes i encounter traders who exit their trades on fri and reopen their trades the following week so as to prevent from uncertainty over the weekends. Like G20 meeting etc.
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #732
  • Dec 12, 2010 12:07pm Dec 12, 2010 12:07pm
[quote=fartist;4237008]Hi dan! That would be FARTIST! Booms.

Thats a damn fine name you have there sir !
Made me chuckle, as i do have a very juvenile sense of humour.
When i was a kid, my grandmother taught me The Alphabet of Farts, much to the disgust of my mother.
It still makes me smile to this day.

Cheers
  • #733
  • Dec 12, 2010 3:13pm Dec 12, 2010 3:13pm
Hi Dan, I haven't been able to trade much lately but hope to re-read the thread and contribute more in the new year. Have a great Christmas everyone
  • #734
  • Dec 12, 2010 3:32pm Dec 12, 2010 3:32pm
Quoting DanUK
I will also use the fib retracement tool (drawn over the most recent swing in the direction of the trend) to guage how far price is retracing before I want to get in. A discount becomes of interest when price has retraced at least 38.2% of the most recent swing but ideally it should reach the 50% level before we have had a sufficient retracement. The only time this is superseded is when a very strong support/resistance level gets in the way or when a trendline gets in the way.

[color=black][font=Verdana]Here’s...
all you trendlines are advancely technically incorrect The line should not be pierced with price wicks
  • #735
  • Dec 13, 2010 12:57am Dec 13, 2010 12:57am
[quote=paulwales;4227047]

I think then it might be good if we can all start contributing to a "Watch List" and look out for potential trades we all agree with.


Good idea Paul, a general watch list that we could all discuss and follow.
  • #736
  • Dec 13, 2010 1:22am Dec 13, 2010 1:22am
Quoting GJP
I think then it might be good if we can all start contributing to a "Watch List" and look out for potential trades we all agree with.
What exactly is a "watch list"?--and how would does one work (how/where do people post trade calls, etc?)

Neo
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #737
  • Dec 13, 2010 3:42am Dec 13, 2010 3:42am
Hi Neo.

A 'watch list' would be as you are kindly supplying as your "Weekly Analysis" (which I am sure we all find of great benefit) but concentrating on trades that could potentially happen in the very near future. It gives us confidence when we see the same set ups and actions that our fellow traders are seeing. However, it would be unfair on you and Dan in particular as the only people supplying the analysis, I think we all should contribute.

This way of course we can look at more pairs, commodities and individual stocks as Dan pointed out in a earlier post, which will give us a better chance to be more picky looking for that 'perfect' set up. We can then post ourt thoughts in this thread and discuss.

Regards
Paul
  • #738
  • Edited 7:19am Dec 13, 2010 4:20am | Edited 7:19am
Quoting DanUK
Don't forget guys; there are other markets out there too. I was just chatting with a fellow trendy on PM about this one...

It's an LSE stock, ABF - the uptrend has been going good for almost two years now (that's the kind of move I like to catch!).

Diversification of one's portfolio spreads risk but it also gives you more opportunities and therefore more chances to look for the right trade. Being picky about your setups helps the bottom line at the end of the day!

Regards,

Dan
could'nt agree more Dan . Where is the best place to invest your capital ? answer - on the correct side of a good trend ... your method will achieve that
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  • #739
  • Dec 13, 2010 11:55am Dec 13, 2010 11:55am
Quoting NeoRio
I suppose you mean a candlestick formation on the D1 when you say "bearish signal"? Since the last 5 D1 candles have been seemingly consolidation candles (indecision candles), does it make it harder to read a forthcoming "signal" candle to trade off of?
Hi Neo,

Yes that's right. I think consolidation can make it harder to read... whilst I am not the type to trade what some might call A+++ setups I do prefer to take setups that are quite obvious. If it isn't clear then it probably means it's not worth trading.

Regards,

Dan
  • #740
  • Dec 13, 2010 11:57am Dec 13, 2010 11:57am
Quoting fartist
Hi dan! That would be FARTIST! Booms.

Thanks for sharing, because sometimes i encounter traders who exit their trades on fri and reopen their trades the following week so as to prevent from uncertainty over the weekends. Like G20 meeting etc.
Lol! Good, I like the name!

I think I would be careful about opening new trades late on a Friday if I knew there was going to be something important (like a G20) happening at the weekend but generally I don't let that sort of thing affect my trading too much.

Regards,

Dan
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