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  • #338,561
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:52am Dec 3, 2010 6:52am
I am thinking that the NFP will be neutral or good and the result will be that EU will spike upward.

I would expect that it would go at least to the range that I would expect it to go to anyway, which is 1.3320-1.3350, with a possibility of extending to 1.4000 depending on just how good the NFP is.

Following that I would expect the pair to drop back down to 1.3200 with a view to its continuing down afterward.

I would notl put a pending trade in ahead of time but wait for the first 15 minutes in order for things to settle down.
  • #338,562
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:52am Dec 3, 2010 6:52am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Well looks like 3187/3195 is still acting as good support. Below there I'll be watching 3161, which is key in my view. Finally 3060/3078 is the bulls last line in the sand, bears in control under there. Topside 3227 looks like its done its job thus far. Above there I'll watch 3260, and we will all watch 3299 I'm sure. Anyway lets hope London gives us a little action early. Good luck today, and look sharp....PTL
I'm going to be watching the same numbers I mentioned this morning. I'll add 3374 up top. I have no idea whats going to happen. I just hope to see a nice setup for one more trade this week. If not so be it.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #338,563
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:53am Dec 3, 2010 6:53am
Thanks to all posters above. I am tracking all the sentiment .... just a quick reminder to the others, this not about being right or wrong or an exact trade or who is better ... it just for accountability.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #338,564
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:53am Dec 3, 2010 6:53am
Quoting goods
Cloggie they will learn one day

No they won't, look at my posts today, I clearly posted the range with the supports, the triggers both up and down, and still plenty posted buying the top. A halfway decent trader would have seen that coming pretty accurately and would not have taken a trade on a M5 spike without the pattern playing out first.

If only a fraction of the posters here would spend a little time on how to identify ranges and where, how and when they form, then the average of success would go up tremendously.

IF they can't even do that, what change do you think they have trading NFP?
  • #338,565
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:55am Dec 3, 2010 6:55am
Hatch man, whats up budy, hope all is well...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #338,566
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:56am Dec 3, 2010 6:56am
Quoting cloggie
Lower TF support zone is slowly inching up, now 3250-3256, top trigger is still 3262, bottom line in the sand is now 3248. We are still ranging and the topside still does not look good from where we are now.

The lower TF support zone has overtaken the price making 3262 invalid, resistance zone is now 3253-3257.

3242 is still valid

Higher TF support is at 3225-3231
  • #338,567
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:57am Dec 3, 2010 6:57am
good morning guys. Possible dollar bounce coming soon. however, I am uncertain at this time. I will probably wait for the data before making my move. If it doesn't happen here I believe 79.30~ area would offer significant support.
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  • #338,568
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:57am Dec 3, 2010 6:57am
Quoting sisse
While we wait, lets check the mood in FF from now until 15 mins before NFP so we can have some accountability on the thread and check the free riders who always appear after the fact to show off. All sentiments, calls, general areas or actual exact potential trades are valid. Staying aside is always an option.....

sisse
i expect a green number to print. E/U will drop no further than .3166 and I will be looking to fade it long from there. should recover to .3250 quickly and could push through .3300 in early ny. basically a replay of adp with more magnitude.

if i am wrong i will still be looking to get in scalps in good volatility if my bucket will let me
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #338,569
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:58am Dec 3, 2010 6:58am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Hatch man, whats up budy, hope all is well...
yep, i'm enjoying a nice "espresso-tobacco" right now. it's really yummy.

i traded the two retracements for a mere 38 pips today, which is enough. sidelined for nfp, possibly for the rest of the day.
  • #338,570
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:59am Dec 3, 2010 6:59am
Quoting cloggie
The lower TF support zone has overtaken the price making 3262 invalid, resistance zone is now 3253-3257.

3242 is still valid

Higher TF support is at 3225-3231
if they collect buy orders/trigger weak stops before the news... wow...
  • #338,571
  • Dec 3, 2010 7:00am Dec 3, 2010 7:00am
Quoting Mr Hatch
yep, i'm enjoying a nice "espresso-tobacco" right now. it's really yummy.

i traded the two retracements for a mere 38 pips today, which is enough. sidelined for nfp, possibly for the rest of the day.
I too, cappucino/tobacco. One trade/One win. If I dont see a great setup I'm gone. Chat latter, good luck...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #338,572
  • Dec 3, 2010 7:00am Dec 3, 2010 7:00am
Quoting DudeSepii
My concern is if it spike 20/30 pips 1st before it move the opposite way.....
Today NFP likely is upside. Small dip before usually happens.

Aroundbouts 1.3225/30 looks good place to put stop if playing and regarding this pair keeps trading around 1.3240/50 until news.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #338,573
  • Dec 3, 2010 7:01am Dec 3, 2010 7:01am
So ECB is buying bonds to drive up the EURO, how long can this last before we start heading to the 1.3050 and 'below' level?
  • #338,574
  • Dec 3, 2010 7:02am Dec 3, 2010 7:02am
Quoting sisse
Yesterday before ECB, all bulls posters got killed and nobody called (in the thread AND BEFORE THE FACT) such a big pullback. The big winners were all those who call bears before the news (there were couple of them). However nobody called a potential move up from there.

While we wait, lets check the mood in FF from now until 15 mins before NFP so we can have some accountability on the thread and check the free riders who always appear after the fact to show off. All sentiments, calls, general areas or actual exact potential trades are valid. Staying...
Disclaimer: I'm a newbie here; place little or zero weight in my opinion.

I expect the EUR to rise on a good NFP number. I will open a small long position prior to the release. I will also have a market sell order loaded and ready to execute once the number is released.
I have no target to the upside; I will ride the fat part of the wave and bail when PA stalls on the upside. If the EUR moves down immediately after release, I will close my position quickly.

Quoting cloggie
That's the only thing in town today. A number outside the range could well see 200 pip whipsaws, a number within the range but outside of expectation could see 100 or so. If you have never traded NFP before, I suggest you just stay out, watch and enjoy.
While I agree with your advice, I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer and want to have 'skin in the game'. It's like paper trading; you can make a fortune paper trading when you're only looking at a paper loss. Add in the possibility of losing real money and you get a different reaction from many traders. So I'll play with real money, but it will be a small position.
My biggest concern is getting whipsawed on this trade.

GLTA.
  • #338,575
  • Dec 3, 2010 7:02am Dec 3, 2010 7:02am
Quoting cloggie

3242 is still valid

Who would have thought....
  • #338,576
  • Dec 3, 2010 7:05am Dec 3, 2010 7:05am
every battle is won before it is fought, lets see if sun tzu is right :-D
eur/usd will spike up and drop down
  • #338,577
  • Dec 3, 2010 7:06am Dec 3, 2010 7:06am
Quoting mercy seat
Well ... mr tarantel ... I do not know which kind of support levels you have there ... as I know you are concerned with MM-Levels ...

Some day I will ask you more precise about that in private ... if you allow ...
No problem. Dont hesitate to contact me. As for MM levels, those are quite good and I have traded MM for a long time. I have concentrated at my core knowledge of PA without any pivots, mm lines,demark,camarilla etc. but I know a lot about it.
  • #338,578
  • Dec 3, 2010 7:07am Dec 3, 2010 7:07am
IB + BEOB let's see how it goes
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  • #338,579
  • Dec 3, 2010 7:07am Dec 3, 2010 7:07am


Quoting cloggie
Put me down for 3185
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #338,580
  • Dec 3, 2010 7:11am Dec 3, 2010 7:11am
Quoting cloggie
No they won't, look at my posts today, I clearly posted the range with the supports, the triggers both up and down, and still plenty posted buying the top. A halfway decent trader would have seen that coming pretty accurately and would not have taken a trade on a M5 spike without the pattern playing out first.

If only a fraction of the posters here would spend a little time on how to identify ranges and where, how and when they form, then the average of success would go up tremendously.

IF they can't even do that, what change do you think they...
You are absolutely right, 3 things this all comes to:

1. Patience waiting for right setup
2. Respecting the range or time frame you are trading on
3. Money Mangement, set be sl's once in profit let winners run.

Cloggie by the way today I should have my acct fully recovered. Hard work but I had a plan to do it
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
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