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  • #338,541
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:36am Dec 3, 2010 6:36am
There are huge buying orders clogging up prior to NFP data release which is expected to be dismal. To traders who have shorted the pair, please take note and set your stop loss accordingly.
Cheers!
  • #338,542
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:36am Dec 3, 2010 6:36am
Yesterday before ECB, all bulls posters got killed and nobody called (in the thread AND BEFORE THE FACT) such a big pullback. The big winners were all those who call bears before the news (there were couple of them). However nobody called a potential move up from there.

While we wait, lets check the mood in FF from now until 15 mins before NFP so we can have some accountability on the thread and check the free riders who always appear after the fact to show off. All sentiments, calls, general areas or actual exact potential trades are valid. Staying aside is always an option.....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #338,543
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:37am Dec 3, 2010 6:37am
Quoting cloggie
That's the only thing in town today. A number outside the range could well see 200 pip whipsaws, a number within the range but outside of expectation could see 100 or so. If you have never traded NFP before, I suggest you just stay out, watch and enjoy.
My concern is if it spike 20/30 pips 1st before it move the opposite way.....
  • #338,544
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:37am Dec 3, 2010 6:37am
Quoting The Fool
ADP was better than expected. NFP does not always follow ADP but it usually does.

a nice green NFP number will drop E/U and the chance for a long fade will follow. if it prints red just the opposite may ensue.

hey, its forex though, anything can happen. look at the sneaky ecb play yesterday.

Yep you are right, I am already positioned in below 3200 with a b/e sl, I managed to put a second trade on last night before I went to bed with a hard tp at the 50 level for london session.

It is really liking the 50 level though I think it will head up to 3320 then back down regardless of nfp numbers. I have a mental tp there unless it keeps going up.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #338,545
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:38am Dec 3, 2010 6:38am
Quoting Fazpips
There are huge buying orders clogging up prior to NFP data release which is expected to be dismal. To traders who have shorted the pair, please take note and set your stop loss accordingly.
Cheers!
What is your source ? Thanks.
  • #338,546
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:39am Dec 3, 2010 6:39am
Quoting attila
You always have to look at what THEY do BEFORE the news. What usually happens, this case for example, is they drove it up as much as they could in order to drop it from the highest point possible (THEY already know what the NFP numbers will be). It doesn't happen all the time, but it's something to pay attention to.

It seems the NFP will be better than expected.

edit: I only glanced, I believe the futures are only slightly up.
If NFP exceed expectation, then it will be good for EU. Basically, bad data from US always bad for EU. Not sure what will happened this time.
  • #338,547
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:39am Dec 3, 2010 6:39am
Well adding to that the hourly channel trading it's way into the larger TF's is starting to play out as a mere correction. A break of the lower TL will prove this was only a correction.
Quoting longshot_nl
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3674

TLC has same view as you...
Mine is a little different, i posted mine also in this thread.
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"As Kids we believe Anything is Possible; the Trick is to never forget it!"
  • #338,548
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:39am Dec 3, 2010 6:39am
Quoting mercy seat
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/png.gif 2010-12-03_12h55_ EURUSD _ 015min _ (800 x 600).PNG (18.2 KB)

Well ... mr tarantel ... I do not know which kind of support levels you have there ... as I know you are concerned with MM-Levels ...

Some day I will ask you more precise about that in private ... if you allow ...

As I found your explanation a few months ago was really good ... but there has been further questions left ... about time frame and how to detect the beginning or the end of an octave sequences etcetera ...

I do only have these grafical SUPs here ... one is near 3221 ... and central pp zone of course ...

Some others .. but they are not in grafical views available ...


Schaun wir mal ...


http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/png.gif 2010-12-03_13h28_ EURUSD _ 015min _ (800 x 600).PNG (18.5 KB)


Moreover ... I do have noticed ... you are with keen eyes on UJ today ...
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2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #338,549
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:40am Dec 3, 2010 6:40am
Quoting sisse
Yesterday before ECB, all bulls posters got killed and nobody called (in the thread AND BEFORE THE FACT) such a big pullback....

Put me down for 3185
  • #338,550
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:40am Dec 3, 2010 6:40am
Quoting sisse
Yesterday before ECB, all bulls posters got killed and nobody called (in the thread AND BEFORE THE FACT) such a big pullback....
great idea, sisse. we should do that more often. should calm down the rantings afterwards a lot! and it's interesting to see...

my position: headfake, then drop. no levels so far.

will not trade this time due to disconnects during the event last month.
  • #338,551
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:40am Dec 3, 2010 6:40am
Quoting iflyjetzzz
Is that the normal PA for bad NFP numbers? I would expect US equities to move down and EUR go down as it would be a risk off situation.

I am thinking that the NFP will be better than expected and the end result will be EUR going up.

How has the EUR reacted to NFP in the past? I haven't followed this before.

It is really hard to say what is goign to happen, unemployment claims worse than expected yesterday, I would expect nfp to be in the red some causing eu to go up till about 3320 (just a technical move). Risk should be in eu bull if nfp bad. If it comes out good I can still see money moving out of the $ over to equities, which would cause eu to rally on good numbers.

Its strange risk has been changing here and there so I dont know. Just best use MM get in if you are not in or sit on the sidelines or wait till after numbers and watch pa.


But someone here correct me if I am wrong, I will take constructive criticism in this outlook that I have right now.
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #338,552
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:41am Dec 3, 2010 6:41am
....but it's a good Turkish Coffee for now until NFP.
"As Kids we believe Anything is Possible; the Trick is to never forget it!"
  • #338,553
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:41am Dec 3, 2010 6:41am
Quoting cloggie
That's the only thing in town today. A number outside the range could well see 200 pip whipsaws, a number within the range but outside of expectation could see 100 or so. If you have never traded NFP before, I suggest you just stay out, watch and enjoy.
Cloggie,

I am a silent admirer as a junior member I am not sure if this post gets recorded on time for an answer... How bad of an idea is it to set up 2 pending orders... one if it breaks up and one if it breaks down the range i.e. 1.3300 and 1.2970... once one of the two is triggered the other can not... i guess the question is: what are the chances of price going 30pips in one direction only to end up 100-200pips in the other direction?!!

apologies in advance should my thinking is silly! I am a rookie and I can get away with things
  • #338,554
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:42am Dec 3, 2010 6:42am
Quoting orangeRANGE
If NFP exceed expectation, then it will be good for EU. Basically, bad data from US always bad for EU. Not sure what will happened this time.
You could be right, I forgot the correlation but this move up before the news is telling me a drop after.
  • #338,555
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:45am Dec 3, 2010 6:45am
Quoting nemesis
Cloggie,

I am a silent admirer as a junior member I am not sure if this post gets recorded on time for an answer... How bad of an idea is it to set up 2 pending orders... one if it breaks up and one if it breaks down the range i.e. 1.3300 and 1.2970... once one of the two is triggered the other can not... i guess the question is: what are the chances of price going 30pips in one direction only to end up 100-200pips in the other direction?!!

apologies in advance should my thinking is silly! I am a rookie and I can get away with things

That is not the way to trade the news, your broker could see spreads approaching your stops easily and both orders could get triggered and stopped at the same time. Trade the news fundamentally with an eye on equities for risk aversion/appetite, ignore the first fake, which could easily trigger one of your orders only to get stopped out on the retrace with spreads costing you dearly and trade the direction of the resultant risk after the initial fakeout.

Recognising either is not for the fainthearted and not something you should trade if you haven't done so before.
  • #338,556
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:46am Dec 3, 2010 6:46am
Quoting sisse
Yesterday before ECB, all bulls posters got killed and nobody called (in the thread AND BEFORE THE FACT) such a big pullback....
Interesting...i share the same view as Hatch...chart posted this morning.

And as usual you will see people making 100 pips if the pair moves 50 pips...classic.
And i can bet they will be in the right way
It will be fun....45mn to go!
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #338,557
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:49am Dec 3, 2010 6:49am
Quoting cloggie
That is not the way to trade the news, your broker could see spreads approaching your stops easily and both orders could get triggered and stopped at the same time. Trade the news fundamentally with an eye on equities for risk aversion/appetite, ignore the first fake, which could easily trigger one of your orders only to get stopped out on the retrace with spreads costing you dearly and trade the direction of the resultant risk after the initial fakeout.

Recognising either is not for the fainthearted and not something you should trade if you haven't...

Cloggie they will learn one day

Get in profit set wide sl, as you get deeper into profit set b/e sl and let her rip

Of course you should be positioned in well before numbers such as the day before
Know when to hold em, Know when to fold em!
  • #338,558
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:50am Dec 3, 2010 6:50am
Many Thanks

Quoting cloggie
That is not the way to trade the news, your broker could see spreads approaching your stops easily and both orders could get triggered and stopped at the same time. Trade the news fundamentally with an eye on equities for risk aversion/appetite, ignore the first fake, which could easily trigger one of your orders only to get stopped out on the retrace with spreads costing you dearly and trade the direction of the resultant risk after the initial fakeout.

Recognising either is not for the fainthearted and not something you should trade if you haven't...
  • #338,559
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:51am Dec 3, 2010 6:51am
Quoting kuroro001
Interesting...i share the same view as Hatch...chart posted this morning.

And as usual you will see people making 100 pips if the pair moves 50 pips...classic.
And i can bet they will be in the right way
It will be fun....45mn to go!
...with the only unknown variable of ecb buying during news, this could result in a nasty event. today, i will look a t volumes closely. yesterday, they could have pointed me in the right direction, but as usual, i didn't give them the due credit at that time.
  • #338,560
  • Dec 3, 2010 6:52am Dec 3, 2010 6:52am
Then pa ready around this level with resistance overhead as expected for nfp, lets see what next .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
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