Profitunity (Chaos) Trading System by Bill Williams | Page 48 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Bill Williams Profitunity Chaos Trading 445 replies

Looking for Bill Williams Chaos Trading Platform 2 replies

The 1st Wiseman in Chaos Trading/Profitunity 2 replies

Trading in the Zone advanced indicator (Trading Chaos by Bill Williams) 12 replies

Looking for Chaos/Profitunity Indicators for Tradestation 0 replies

Attachments: Profitunity (Chaos) Trading System by Bill Williams
Exit Attachments

Profitunity (Chaos) Trading System by Bill Williams

  • #941
  • Nov 29, 2010 8:46am Nov 29, 2010 8:46am
Quoting yousafzai
Thanks EE

When the alligator on M5 opens add on on every fractal until either the AO peaks or if you have enough patience and stronger belief system, wait for divergence possibly get more out of it.

But also depends on your belief system, your patience levels and understanding of the structure of the market. e.g if you are short maximum lots and price moves considerably, (to know what is considerably requires experience and understanding of chaos IMO...) and have enough pips in total do you bank profits or play the game a bit more? its freedom...

I have been working BW theory on and off over the last year +, usually with my own spin. Your comment on alligator opening finally struck a chord on what I have been missing with it. Other than filtering fractals with red line, the alligator hasn't done anything else for me. Thank you for the simple insight. I remember now how much BW put into the alligator and how little weight I have been giving it compared to other components of chaos.

Do you also drop to 1min to build your position based on the 5min or do you trade each time frame independently using the wave structure on the AO of each TF.

Consistent pips to everyone here.
  • #942
  • Nov 30, 2010 4:04am Nov 30, 2010 4:04am
I too appreciate his comments regarding the alligator. I bought the home study course three months ago and have yet to start live trading. That said, I'm bad about giving greater weighting mentally to the fractals and ignoring the AO and Alligator.

They work in harmony with each other and they are telling a story to you but you've got to get your presuppositions right before you can hear that story. So much more to learn.
  • #943
  • Dec 1, 2010 8:37pm Dec 1, 2010 8:37pm
Quoting crghill
I too appreciate his comments regarding the alligator. I bought the home study course three months ago and have yet to start live trading. That said, I'm bad about giving greater weighting mentally to the fractals and ignoring the AO and Alligator.

They work in harmony with each other and they are telling a story to you but you've got to get your presuppositions right before you can hear that story. So much more to learn.
+1000 There is such a delicate balance between all of the pieces of this system, it is truly amazing to see it unfold in front of your eyes when you get the right "recipe". It may be slightly different for each one of us, but its there within the system. I have been using this method since "New Trading Dimensions" and can say that I have made more profits with Bill's methods than with anything else. 625% this year so far trading futures. From my early work with Bill and Justine, I know that it takes a good 6-12 months to fully grasp whats going on, and for me it took an additional year to really start putting up big numbers. As long as you are not losing money in the beginning, you are on the right track and profits will come.
Good trading to all!
  • #944
  • Dec 1, 2010 9:34pm Dec 1, 2010 9:34pm
Hi Greenriver

That is an outstanding return percentage. If you dont mind me asking are you trading daily timeframe with this method?

Thanks

Mike
  • #945
  • Dec 2, 2010 3:06am Dec 2, 2010 3:06am
Quoting GreenRiver
+1000...
woww, that's a big number u got there...
if u dont mind, can u share ur method?
  • #946
  • Dec 2, 2010 4:42am Dec 2, 2010 4:42am
Quoting GreenRiver
+1000 There is such a delicate balance between all of the pieces of this system, it is truly amazing to see it unfold in front of your eyes when you get the right "recipe". It may be slightly different for each one of us, but its there within the system. I have been using this method since "New Trading Dimensions" and can say that I have made more profits with Bill's methods than with anything else. 625% this year so far trading futures. From my early work with Bill and Justine, I know that it takes a good 6-12 months to fully grasp whats going...
So far, I'm 50/50 win/loss ratio and slightly profitable. I've got big problems with fear because I drew down 40% of my account value BEFORE I bought the course. The holy grail is wanting what the market wants and if you're afraid, you don't want what it wants you just want out of it. So, I've got that to overcome.

One thing that I'm convinced of. Fractals are natures support and resistance lines and they represent a higher order to the natural process which is a financial market. If you can get in tune with that process it's a nice ride indeed.

Let me ask you a question. I'm going to trade mini lots on forex to start my live trading. I can live with $1 per pip drawdowns. Do you think that's the wise thing to do until my confidence is built back up? I tried trading emini S&Ps but can't stand a $300 loss right now. I'm just to gun shy.
  • #947
  • Edited 8:38am Dec 2, 2010 7:42am | Edited 8:38am
earret: Only end of day. Requires huge amounts of patience to wait for the perfect setup during the corrective periods. I dont use wisman #1, I could never make it work for my personality.

Alligator: There's no secret, its just what works for my personality. Thats why I believe them when they say the system cannot be exploited, everybody trades it a little differently. I spend a lot of time looking at charts and my style has emerged from that.

crghill: I dont know anything about forex, but if I were you I would trade at a level where the typical loss per trade doesn't effect you mentally, ie small. You will be suprized that you can still make decent money trading small. What I had to do, which is a bit contrary to their recommendations, is quantify my risk per trade based roughly on the green line, before I enter any trade. That way I know my risk(1-3% per trade of account balance). I don't take trades where the risk is too high emotionally for me. That in turn forces patience. What I am working on now is to let my profits run a bit more. The big money is made in the 1-3 extended trends that happen in any given year. Take a look at cotton for an example. If you can catch just one of those, you can earn your whole year. I tend to set profit targets based on Fib and Ewave so that has limited my gains. The trick is to know which trade has that potential. It seems to me that failed 4th transitioning to 5th waves tend to do this, look at sugar off its lows this year.
Hope that helps
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro-USD.jpg Size: 149 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD-USD.jpg Size: 154 KB
  • #948
  • Dec 2, 2010 8:56am Dec 2, 2010 8:56am
Green River

It helps a bunch. I like to take fractals that are close to the green line. It limits risk and helps me sleep. If I get in a fast moving market, I see entries that are to far away from the exit and I just can't take them yet. I've been paper trading forex this morning and at most had $265 out on margin. I've made $28.15 just playing micros and minis. That's over 10% in about 45 minutes time. No, it's not real money but it sure is a confidence builder.
  • #949
  • Edited 3:37am Dec 3, 2010 12:03am | Edited 3:37am
Quoting GreenRiver
Alligator: There's no secret, its just what works for my personality. Thats why I believe them when they say the system cannot be exploited, everybody trades it a little differently. I spend a lot of time looking at charts and my style has emerged from that.
good point there.. thx for the explanation...

i was just curious how did you get in and get out, or maybe you could post one of your trade here, if you don't mind

so do you always wait for the saddle point like bill mentioned in his new trading dimension video??
  • #950
  • Dec 3, 2010 8:59am Dec 3, 2010 8:59am
Quoting alligator
good point there.. thx for the explanation...

i was just curious how did you get in and get out, or maybe you could post one of your trade here, if you don't mind

so do you always wait for the saddle point like bill mentioned in his new trading dimension video??
Take a look at the Euro chart, its plain as day. Using either of their methods your going to make money, there is no secret. The best advice I can give is buy all three books. Treat them as your second religion, I do. My wife calls them my bibles. If you can afford it, buy the home study course. If you can afford it, go to a seminar. I have done all and it was well worth it. (Full disclosure, since taking the seminar years ago, Bill and I have become friends, I email with him on occasion). As far as how to do it or what way to get in and out, I am a nervous nelly. I hate volatility, so I wait for alligators that are in coma's. Others make more money trading chaos style. Its all up to the person. I have taken bits and pieces of both styles and fit them togther for me. I can tell you that my wins average 7-15 times my losses and I am not sure what my hit rate is, although the less I trade the higher it goes.
One final comment: I am kind of amazed when folks take bits and pieces of a system on a chat board and trade it. The books are 20 bucks!
  • #951
  • Dec 3, 2010 12:17pm Dec 3, 2010 12:17pm
Quoting GreenRiver
Take a look at the Euro chart, its plain as day. Using either of their methods your going to make money, there is no secret. The best advice I can give is buy all three books. Treat them as your second religion, I do. My wife calls them my bibles. If you can afford it, buy the home study course. If you can afford it, go to a seminar. I have done all and it was well worth it. (Full disclosure, since taking the seminar years ago, Bill and I have become friends, I email with him on occasion). As far as how to do it or what way to get in and out, I...

It's funny, my three books are in a stack with my Bible at home :-) I'm curious Green River, what if anything did you get out of Trading Chaos 2nd Edition that you didn't get from the other books?


Richard
  • #952
  • Edited 5:01pm Dec 3, 2010 3:24pm | Edited 5:01pm
Quoting Richard7
It's funny, my three books are in a stack with my Bible at home :-) I'm curious Green River, what if anything did you get out of Trading Chaos 2nd Edition that you didn't get from the other books?


Richard
Hi Richard, not a lot to be truthful. In fact it messed me up for a little bit trying to incorporate the Wisman 1, but thats just me, I still recommend reading it. I use Wiseman 2 and 3 in my trading. My feeling was that trading chaos 2 was a reaction to the chaos( no pun intended) after the top in 2000 through 2002. 2009 was similar, I think, but have not back tested, that wiseman style (counter trend) way out performed using tight stops in 2009. Right now, and for that matter most of 2010, it looks kind of trendy to me. One of Bill's assistants used to write an ewave newsletter for seminar participants. The last issue he wrote in mid 08 he was calling for wave 4 retracements on the monthly level. It looks to me as if those corrections may have ended starting at the beginning of this year so hopefully the trendiness will continue. Sadly, he no longer writes the newsletter.
  • #953
  • Dec 3, 2010 10:56pm Dec 3, 2010 10:56pm
Quoting GreenRiver
Hi Richard, not a lot to be truthful. In fact it messed me up for a little bit trying to incorporate the Wisman 1, but thats just me, I still recommend reading it. I use Wiseman 2 and 3 in my trading. My feeling was that trading chaos 2 was a reaction to the chaos( no pun intended) after the top in 2000 through 2002. 2009 was similar, I think, but have not back tested, that wiseman style (counter trend) way out performed using tight stops in 2009. Right now, and for that matter most of 2010, it looks kind of trendy to me. One of Bill's assistants...
yeahh, i'm having trouble with wiseman 1 too, most of my losses are from taking the wiseman 1 and 2 signal... how did bill use this signal? did he still use it?? im really curious how he handles wiseman signal, i followed everything from the book but still.. not work for me...
  • #954
  • Dec 4, 2010 5:42am Dec 4, 2010 5:42am
Quoting alligator
yeahh, i'm having trouble with wiseman 1 too, most of my losses are from taking the wiseman 1 and 2 signal... how did bill use this signal? did he still use it?? im really curious how he handles wiseman signal, i followed everything from the book but still.. not work for me...
They are high risk signals because they usually are a long way from stop loss points. One way to limit risk is try to find great angulation on a small bar or candle. This way, you get to take the counter-trend trade at the bottom (bearish divergence bar) of the bar. Your stop in this case would be the top of the same bar.

I also find that divergence bars often show up at pivot points. That's a trade worth taking in my opinion.
  • #955
  • Dec 4, 2010 10:55am Dec 4, 2010 10:55am
Wiseman 1 would have cleaned up over the last week. Wheat, GBP, AUD, corn,beans, indexes, metals, the whole shootin match. Also, if I had been paying attention, a lot of wave 4 bottoms coinciding with said Wiseman 1's. Thats what makes it confounding sometimes. Not seeing the forest for the trees. I have always thought there has to be a concrete setup for the wiseman 1. Rather than the semi-subjective angulation, etc. Any idea's. crghill, I like your thoughts, small range squat wiseman 1's always seem to work. How do you define "pivot points"?
  • #956
  • Dec 4, 2010 3:51pm Dec 4, 2010 3:51pm
GreenRiver,
You mentioned your contact with BW in a previous post. Having been through the home study as well as the seminar work, what's BW's take on Forex and the application of his system? Has he developed any specific alterations for the Forex market that aren't in the three books? I spoke with his daughter a few months ago and she was fairly critical of the Forex market with its lack of regulation, centralized market, etc.
Swamper
  • #957
  • Dec 4, 2010 4:25pm Dec 4, 2010 4:25pm
I purchased this course, read all of Bill Williams books and was hooked. BUT, when I implemented it in the forex spot market it just didn't work. So, I programmed the strategy to include all the custom indicators and order execution to backtest and see what was wrong. I tried optimization with realistic terms, not just to conform to historical data (this is big difference if you are not familiar with the faults and limitations of backtesting). I also forward tested (real time). After more than 6 months I concluded that their may be potential for extremely long term trading with some modifications. But trying to apply this chaos strategy out of the box from the books and course just didn't work. I have read articles regarding modifications for spot forex, but they all, also concluded that the theory did not produce reality. I love the idea, but it just didn't' work for spot trading. At least not for me.
  • #958
  • Dec 5, 2010 7:04am Dec 5, 2010 7:04am
Quoting GreenRiver
Wiseman 1 would have cleaned up over the last week. Wheat, GBP, AUD, corn,beans, indexes, metals, the whole shootin match. Also, if I had been paying attention, a lot of wave 4 bottoms coinciding with said Wiseman 1's. Thats what makes it confounding sometimes. Not seeing the forest for the trees. I have always thought there has to be a concrete setup for the wiseman 1. Rather than the semi-subjective angulation, etc. Any idea's. crghill, I like your thoughts, small range squat wiseman 1's always seem to work. How do you define "pivot points"?...

I like John Person's pivot calculations. I plot those and look for PA around them. If I can get angulation and a small divergence bar (especially if that db opened and closed at the same or nearly same price) then I'm interested.
  • #959
  • Dec 5, 2010 7:06am Dec 5, 2010 7:06am
Quoting fxapi
I purchased this course, read all of Bill Williams books and was hooked. BUT, when I implemented it in the forex spot market it just didn't work. So, I programmed the strategy to include all the custom indicators and order execution to backtest and see what was wrong. I tried optimization with realistic terms, not just to conform to historical data (this is big difference if you are not familiar with the faults and limitations of backtesting). I also forward tested (real time). After more than 6 months I concluded that their may be potential for...
I don't think there is any way to program this system. I'm not surprised that it didn't work once programmed. This system is meant to be traded using human interpretation of the many different aspects. For instance, you get a breakout fractal but an intertwined alligator. I often ignore that signal. I miss a trade here or there but patience is the virtue for Chaos and without it....you sink.
  • #960
  • Dec 5, 2010 8:28am Dec 5, 2010 8:28am
Trading Chaos cannot be programmed, and that is its most appealing quality in my mind. I would say chaos needs a little fib and ewave. I was breakeven the first year trading by "the book", then just started tweaking it a bit. I had more than my share of 10k + profits evaporate in one day early on. But by taking profits at fib targets, not trading choppy markets, being very patient things turned around. The difference between breakeven and making money is very small. Just a few tweaks, maybe a little intuition. How can you program that? I have written systems for tradestation and I am familiar with system programming. I have been asked by institutions to code my chaos trading. I know it wont work and say no to them.
Bill and Justine were negative on forex but I am not sure where they stand now. People post here who are making money. I am here because this is the only place on the net where people talk chaos.
2 traders viewing now