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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #265,421
  • Nov 27, 2010 5:08am Nov 27, 2010 5:08am
after opening gu will go to 5490 at least on monday morning. Might retrace during europe open
  • #265,422
  • Nov 27, 2010 5:21am Nov 27, 2010 5:21am
yes..sounds good
pretty negative on the 1 minute input.strong res at 1.5600.so 5500 area could be the support...thanks for that
http://i52.tinypic.com/70ywc2.gif
  • #265,423
  • Nov 27, 2010 9:24am Nov 27, 2010 9:24am
atm, but Monday morning will be interesting. A couple of perspectives below; one using 5 pip Constant Range Bars, the other using a 20 pip bar:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CRB at close 26th Nov.jpg Size: 141 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CRB 20pip 26th Nov.jpg Size: 132 KB
The dream will never die
  • #265,424
  • Edited 10:24am Nov 27, 2010 9:52am | Edited 10:24am
Wow !...These look like fun.. i'm going to find out about constant range bars now. What time frame are they or are time frames irrelevant ? 'scuse my ignorance. Ok answered my own question .I think Lol. Pure price action not time intervals , right?
Is blue long and red short? What are the 3 bars, obviously constant range but why 3 ? Please .
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #265,425
  • Nov 27, 2010 10:58am Nov 27, 2010 10:58am
Bearish week as commented above with a decisive downside breech of both the ascending Daily t/f trend line/channel bottom and the 4hr descending channel bottom. The Friday lo occurred on the 61.8% of the daily swing 5123-6297. There are arguably 5 swing lo's to the 6297 swing hi on the daily t/f from which to plot fibs retraces, these are the 4225, 4342, 4945, 5123 and 5296 swing lo's...but the most important of these are probably the 4225 and 5296 lo's as these correspond to obvious weekly swing lo's too. These are in bold below.

On the daily t/f screenshot below the fibs plotted are those daily/weekly swings 4225 and 5296 to the 6297 swing hi. Looking at the potential near-term support factors, the following analysis includes mention of the other potential daily swing fibs:

5554 38.2% 4342-6297

5533-23-01 Previous 4hr/Daily swing lo zone
5533 76.4% 5296-6297
5509 38.2% 4225-6297

5474 127% fib extension of the last weekly t/f HL-HH, ie 5296-6297

5399 76.4% 5123-6297 -and -138% fib extension of the last weekly t/f HL-HH, ie 5296-6297

5337-14-5296 Previous Daily/Weekly swing lo zone in which is 5323 50% 4342-6297

5265 50% 4225-6297 -and- 76.4% 4945-6297

5243 1.618% fib extension of the last weekly t/f HL-HH, ie 5296- 6297


Obviously One has to add in the relevant Daily, Weekly and Monthly Pivots and of course there is an ascending trend line on the daily which on Monday will come through around 5410

http://www.easy-upload.net/fichiers/...1127175024.gif

I wonder also wether there is a new descending channel on 4hr ?

http://www.easy-upload.net/fichiers/...0112717538.gif

G/L
ex member
  • #265,426
  • Nov 27, 2010 12:03pm Nov 27, 2010 12:03pm
.......here is my 2 cents. Been using this system for awhile now over in my thread, Cable 101. I guess what I am hearing from you kinda confirms my plight.....LOL Ok, 4 hr is oversold, but I didnt really have a lot of faith in the O/S term in the first place.

Where it really gets interesting is on the Daily here shown in the first chart you see the 89 SMA with the close below. The reason I always dwell on the 89 SMA is because this is the MA the pros use to determine overall trend. If you read James Dicks book you can find that fact in there. This tells me we could be heading down for a while.

And if you go a step farther as per the monthly chart in the 2nd chart you see more confirmation of this. We got a close below the most recent low and the MACD looks to be ready to cross down in the upper quadrant, ( Green Arrow ). My long term areas of resistance are marked by gray rectangles on the chart and are as follows.

1st area of long term support is 1.5340-1.5440 which corresponds to your 5342 number.

2nd area of long term support is 1.4900-1.5000 which corresponds to your 4945 number.

3rd area of long term support is 1.44700-1.4475 which is the only number that ist really close but what the hell, 2 out of 3 aint bad, right?

Anyway short to at least 1.5000 in my book as of right now and I will continue to ride those MACD crosses on the larger time frames because they work all the time and I know that you know as well as I do is that using indys on the lower time frames is like pissing into the wind, your gonna get wet. Enjoy!

Jim


Quoting bbmac
Bearish week as commented above with a decisive downside breech of both the ascending Daily t/f trend line/channel bottom and the 4hr descending channel bottom. The Friday lo occurred on the 61.8% of the daily swing 5123-6297. There are arguably 5 swing lo's to the 6297 swing hi on the daily t/f from which to plot fibs retraces, these are the 4225, 4342, 4945, 5123 and 5296 swing lo's...but the most important of these are probably the 4225 and 5296 lo's as these correspond to obvious weekly swing lo's too. These are in bold below.

On the...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu1.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #265,427
  • Nov 27, 2010 2:06pm Nov 27, 2010 2:06pm
hello guys
can u share me your ideas?
right now market is closed on 1.5587 and i wanna know if there would be any correction (uptrend moving)?
you know if u watch 4h and Daily the whole week was bearish and i believe there must be some correction, if you are agree with me how much do u think it goes uptrend?
thank you for your help
  • #265,428
  • Nov 27, 2010 2:23pm Nov 27, 2010 2:23pm
Quoting yasi
hello guys
can u share me your ideas?
right now market is closed on 1.5587 and i wanna know if there would be any correction (uptrend moving)?
you know if u watch 4h and Daily the whole week was bearish and i believe there must be some correction, if you are agree with me how much do u think it goes uptrend?
thank you for your help
Help is all here . All you need to do is scoll back a few pages/weeks. All the analyses that you could wish for are here. Keep watching.
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #265,429
  • Nov 27, 2010 5:14pm Nov 27, 2010 5:14pm
Trends move in waves it is true, impulsive (with trend ) and corrective (the counter trend pullbacks.) 4hr and Daily t/f's are indeed in an overall price action (opa) downtrend...4hr is indeed 'oversold' on some oscillators/settings. Will the trend at least pullback at some point ?- Very probably, How far ? No one knows...as no one knows at which stage it will begin to pull back. The direction of future price discovery is in no-bodies gift. All we have is what we see, and our trading edges....from that you can make a decision about what the higher probability is and act accordingly (or not.) Whether that higher probability plays out on this and every occassion will be determined by the market.

BTW: Your question has the tone of some one that is long from above current price and hoping for such a pullback (+)? Lol. Whatever the case though,

G/L

Quoting yasi
hello guys. can u share me your ideas?..right now market is closed on 1.5587 and i wanna know if there would be any correction (uptrend moving)? You know if u watch 4h and Daily the whole week was bearish and i believe there must be some correction, if you are agree with me how much do u think it goes uptrend? thank you for your help
ex member
  • #265,430
  • Nov 27, 2010 5:40pm Nov 27, 2010 5:40pm
Seems everybody going short... I am started to be long at 1.5619 on friday...
  • #265,431
  • Nov 27, 2010 5:57pm Nov 27, 2010 5:57pm
Hi,

I always find your analysis interesting. I would comment on the points you make as under;

a. I agree 4hr is indeed 'oevrsold' on certain oscillators/settings but as you know has been for a couple of hundred pips or so - lol, That is what a downtrend is of course 'oversold' so in a sense I agree that it is a misleading term.

b. Interesting that you ma's in your analysis, I don't really use them other than 100 and 200sma on 1hr + and then more for confluence than anything else.

c. I determine trend by overall price action (opa) analysis, ie peak/valley analysis for example as of now on 4hr and daily the 100sma remains above the 200sma so not much use in detremining trend from the 6297 recent hi that has seen an opa downtrend develop on both t/f's since. I realise of course that shorter setting ma's would have been more useful in this respect.

d. You look at that 2nd chart you posted and you see the bearish divergence in the shorter setting stochs oscillator and indeed in the macd histogram just as the lines are about to cross in that upper quadrant.

e. I have no info to suggest that macd crosses on the higher t/f's '..work all the time...' but find the info interesting..perhaps divergence on a shorter setting oscillator gives it a greater tech confluence and an increased chance of, in this case, leading to lower price if indeed the macd line does cross down as in that 2nd pic you posted and replicated below showing the bearish osc divergence?

f. Not sure I agree with your comments about use of indys on the lower t/f's, indeed part of the repeating patterns/set-ups that make up my trading edge is comprimised of oscillator divergence/band deviation and I use the same settings from 1min - monthly t/f. These such patterns/set-ups make up 80% of my trading activity and of these all are on the 1min - 15min with 75% being on 1min . I find them net positive with a very high strike rate. Each to their own though and everyone's experience is different..

Enjoyed your post, glad to say hello.

G/L


Quoting Nene
.......here is my 2 cents. Been using this system for awhile now over in my thread, Cable 101. I guess what I am hearing from you kinda confirms my plight.....LOL Ok, 4 hr is oversold, but I didnt really have a lot of faith in the O/S term in the first place.

Where it really gets interesting is on the Daily here shown in the first chart you see the 89 SMA with the close below. The reason I always dwell on the 89 SMA is because this is the MA the pros use to determine overall trend. If you read James Dicks book you can find that fact in there....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: z.gif Size: 17 KB
ex member
  • #265,432
  • Nov 27, 2010 6:02pm Nov 27, 2010 6:02pm
Quoting Alk34
Seems everybody going short... I am started to be long at 1.5619 on friday...
Personally I ended the week flat. I think a lot will be holding short though. Will be interesting to see where the stops are if a pullback does develop soon.

G/L
ex member
  • #265,433
  • Nov 27, 2010 6:16pm Nov 27, 2010 6:16pm
Quoting bbmac
Personally I ended the week flat. I think a lot will be holding short though. Will be interesting to see where the stops are if a pullback does develop soon.

G/L
I think Monday is important day, there will come some news about Irish issue and some leader datas from UK, especially 'net lending to individuals' is most important for consumer tension and for possible expectations for inflation... If there is no bad news from consumer side i am planing to add more Longs bellow 1.5600 ! Finally, if this down trend is just for Irish bailout issue and for Euro worries, this is realy good opportunitiy for BUY GBP
  • #265,434
  • Nov 27, 2010 6:49pm Nov 27, 2010 6:49pm
Maybe its just because I had so little luck with the indys on the smaller time frames and I just wasnt a good enough trader down there. I have improved my trading 100% since I went Day/Week. As for the,"Works every Time", comment. Nothing works all the time as you know. But it just seems like it does and I have not seen a whole lot of trades where it doesn't. I have an example of my system below.

In my Daily system, the Stoch has to cross first and the MACD follows and the Hulls MA are used for continuation. I trade any par that shows both signals in succession and are heading away from the 89/200 SMA. Below is a trade I entered Thursday. The Stoch crossed on the 19th and that would start me looking for the MACD cross. The MACD came across in the upper quadrant Thanksgiving day where I entered twice. When I saw this I knew the Bearish wedge was about to fall. Gues what happened? This particular trade pulled back a bit and allowed me to scale in another sell lot. Come and check my thread out sometime, BB, I am sure you will like it.

As for stops, well, I just keep them way the hell out of the way.


Jim

Quoting bbmac
Hi,

I always find your analysis interesting. I would comment on the points you make as under;

a. I agree 4hr is indeed 'oevrsold' on certain oscillators/settings but as you know has been for a couple of hundred pips or so - lol, That is what a downtrend is of course 'oversold' so in a sense I agree that it is a misleading term.

b. Interesting that you ma's in your analysis, I don't really use them other than 100 and 200sma on 1hr + and then more for confluence than anything else.

c. I determine trend by overall price action (opa) analysis,...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gc.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #265,435
  • Nov 28, 2010 6:09am Nov 28, 2010 6:09am
bottom pickers beware

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...-ytn-says.html
Thank You
  • #265,436
  • Nov 28, 2010 6:13am Nov 28, 2010 6:13am
Will be looking for sell entry only after it retraces at least 50% of the last week down move.
Great Bodies are Engineered not Born
  • #265,437
  • Nov 28, 2010 12:15pm Nov 28, 2010 12:15pm
As the markets open i will be trading only what i see in as real time as my charts allow. I have no bias. I will therefore be working from 15/5/1min tf .
On attached chart:
4 hr; previous resistance @15475-15548 could become support/supply zone.Trend line from 9 nov has been breached (as we've all seen lol)also previous support @ 16642. Last week printed some serious moves south. I cannot assume anything ever but at times like these i am very cautious.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot FX GBP_USD (26-NOV-10).png Size: 13 KB
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #265,438
  • Nov 28, 2010 12:22pm Nov 28, 2010 12:22pm
I would like to see some move back up and to me 1.5860 looks to be a major resistance area. I have posted my daily chart and the green lines are areas of interest to me. 1.5650 could be a tuff area to get back through and 1.5470 is a good possibility to the downside, I guess we will have to wait and see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1127daily.gif Size: 28 KB
Please ask questions and share your experiences with us all!
  • #265,439
  • Nov 28, 2010 12:27pm Nov 28, 2010 12:27pm
Sorry,didnt get the frame right
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot FX GBP_USD (26-NOV-10).png Size: 21 KB
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #265,440
  • Nov 28, 2010 2:40pm Nov 28, 2010 2:40pm
thanx bbmac for sharing your point of view
As you guessed i am looking forward for a correction and i need at least 150pip,to tell u the truth im not sure about my analysis any more but i think after this much downtrend without any correction in 4h chart it should be a reversal for awhile.
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