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  • #621
  • Nov 19, 2010 12:08pm Nov 19, 2010 12:08pm
Suggest for UJ

http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/9...lyanalysis.gif

Good luck.
  • #622
  • Nov 19, 2010 1:48pm Nov 19, 2010 1:48pm
Hi FXReady

I'm just a newbie but my interpretation of the USD/JPY is different.

We are in a downtrend, currently around the 61.8 Fib retracement area of the last down swing and at a previous support level of the 83.50 area. I'm on the lookout for price action to give shorting opportunity.

I wouldn't be surprised, however, if my reasoning is flawed. Any other opinions guys???

Cheers

Mark
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  • #623
  • Nov 20, 2010 4:03am Nov 20, 2010 4:03am
Hi guys,

There has not been a great many chances to trade this last week but I believe next week will see some reasonable action so be sure to pay attention!

Here is my thoughts on this week's price action...

But please remember... support/resistance quoted represents "areas" not "to the pip" lines. This is not meant as trade advice, signals or predictions; it is just a summary of my current market outlook...

USD/CHF – Price has been capped just under 1.000. As I mentioned last week; if 1.000 holds the downtrend should continue, however if it breaks a new uptrend looks like it might take hold. I won’t be looking to buy unless 1.000 is broken.

EUR/USD – After last week’s big drop we saw a further move south at the start of the week and then price seemed to retrace towards the end of the week.

Interestingly, Friday saw price come back to re-test the 1.3700 S/R level and ended up forming a shooting star (although it is far from a “perfect” looking candle). If this breaks on Monday I wouldn’t be surprised to see price make it’s way back down to the 1.3200/1.3300 area.

However, if we look at the weekly chart we see a very nice hammer formed off of 1.3500 (and the 50% retracement level) and a break above this may very well see price head back up to 1.4000 and beyond.

GBP/USD – Price continues to linger around the 1.6000 area and so far has managed to stay above the up-trendline.

USD/JPY – Has been bullish all week and has seen the 83.00/83.50 S/R level break – a continued move above this area next week could signal the establishment of a new uptrend. Last time price reversed from this level a new uptrend lasted almost 7000 pips!

AUD/USD – The uptrend still remains intact and as I suggested last week price has held at the 0.9700/0.9800 area. If we look at the weekly chart we can see price formed a reasonable looking hammer off of this area.

USD/CAD – The downtrend (albeit rather sideways at the moment) still remains intact. I suggested last week that I would expect support/resistance at 1.0200/1.0300 to hold if the downtrend is going to continue... which so far it has!

Possible Trades

Here are a couple of possible trades I will be looking at next week (they are not recommendations though so only trade them if you have come to the same conclusion on your own analysis!)…

EUR/USD – Two possible setups mentioned above; the trend is not clear at the moment but I believe the market will show it’s hand next week so I will be ready to trade in either direction.

AUD/USD – Bullish setup off of the weekly hammer.

EUR/CAD – Good looking shooting star off of 1.4000 (actually it missed by 3 pips but looks interesting nonetheless).

USD/SGD – Good looking shooting star off of 1.3000.

NZD/USD – After missing the daily setup (as mentioned earlier by decades) the weekly presents an interesting looking hammer… not a perfect setup mind you but may be worth paying attention to.

Regards,

Dan
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  • #624
  • Nov 20, 2010 5:58am Nov 20, 2010 5:58am
Quoting DanUK
Hi guys,

There has not been a great many chances to trade this last week but I believe next week will see some reasonable action so be sure to pay attention!

Here is my thoughts on this week's price action...

[color=black][font=Verdana]But please remember... support/resistance quoted represents "areas" not "to the pip" lines. This is not meant as trade advice, signals or predictions; it is just a summary of my...

Hi Dan, this is really helpful, I cant thank you enough.

My biggest hurdle at the moment I guess is trying to figure out market sentiment, is the trend continuing, or are we still in retracement, can i look to go long yet, or should i wait. The Eur/usd for example, I was very tempted to take a long at that 50% fib as i thought it was at a great position landing on weekly support aswell, but managed to sit on my hand.

Is this a typical situation where you will not take a long because it hasnt yet returned to the trendline?

Also, if you had been following your old strategy from your 2009 journal where you traded mostly 4 hr charts, (**please anyone reading this paragraph this is a question about dans 2009 4hr chart strategy, dont confuse this with the daily strategy of this thread**) would you have taken this long? or would your sentiment have been short therefore been looking for shorts since you were trading 4 hour charts not dailys? Sorry to ask this here but I really like your old strategy as it suits my account size and level of patience much better, for the time being.

Best Regards.
  • #625
  • Edited 2:01pm Nov 20, 2010 2:00pm | Edited 2:01pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi guys,

There has not been a great many chances to trade this last week but I believe next week will see some reasonable action so be sure to pay attention!

Here is my thoughts on this week's price action...

[color=black][font=Verdana]But please remember... support/resistance quoted represents...
Hi Dan,

Are you considering a short trade on Eur/CAD, based on the daily shooting star?

If so can you elaborate a bit more? I actually see Eur/CAD a bit like Eur/USD,

they both reach the 50% fib from last swing high-low; they both have a hammer on weekly and shooting star on daily... Actually eur/cad is in uptrend for the last 6 month, so trading the shooting star wouldn't it be a countertrend?

Do you consider 1.40 as a big resistance (besides and obvious round number?)
  • #626
  • Nov 21, 2010 12:12am Nov 21, 2010 12:12am
Hey folks, hi Dan,

Just wanted to chime in and say howdy. I've subscribed to your thread and look forward to continuing on here. I ran into a post of yours by chance on the Jacko thread a couple weeks ago, Dan. You mentioned your thread...and I'm glad you did, because I was looking for a home to this kind of trading since the Jacko thread has died out.

I started trading the H4 and D1 TFs about 4 months ago when a trading friend got me interested in trading with Fibs and round numbers. He had followed Jacko's thread for a long time and gathered much of his trading method from there as well as other additional methods that complemented what he was doing. I was about to start a Skype room dedicated to this style of trading (as I'm involved in 2 other Skype rooms that help make trading around a specific method more interactive and educational), but I'm very happy to have found this thread as it's just what I was looking for!

I was kind of hoping that as I neared the last pages of the thread (took me a couple weeks to read it all), that I would have seen some H4 TF trades being discussed, but that's OK. I think you've done an excellent job in clearly describing and patiently explaining your method. I believe it was clever of you to limit the trading education to the D1 TF, as that does clarify things quite a bit and keeps out the CTTs (counter trend trades) the H4 presents. I must admit however, in the 4 months that I've been trading the higher frames (much the same way you do), most of my trades have been taken on the H4. I spend a lot of time at the computer trading and working, so it might be a weakness of mine to over trade and look for entries on the lower frames. I do believe though that the higher the TF, the more reliable the signal, ie, The 50% fib retracement is more powerful on the D1 than the H4, etc.

I would like to chime in with comments and also show you how I look at my charts (almost identical to the way you do), and I think it will take much less time if I make a video instead of a ton of pictures.

Kind Regards,
NeoRio
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #627
  • Nov 21, 2010 7:35pm Nov 21, 2010 7:35pm
Hi Dan,

Thanks for your latest view's. You mention in your summary of seeing trading signals on the 1D and weekly charts, if one signal was bullish and the other bearish, what would you do? All comments welcome.

Cheers.
  • #628
  • Nov 22, 2010 4:45am Nov 22, 2010 4:45am
In an effort to make my chart-showing a little more understandable and easy to follow, I made 4 short videos:

Video 1

Video 2

Video 3

Video 4

Kind Regards,
NeoRio
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #629
  • Nov 22, 2010 5:22am Nov 22, 2010 5:22am
Your videos are Very informative and nicely done
Thanks

Quoting NeoRio
In an effort to make my chart-showing a little more understandable and easy to follow, I made 4 short videos:

Video 1

Video 2

Video 3

Video 4

Kind Regards,
NeoRio
Always Learning
  • #630
  • Nov 22, 2010 1:28pm Nov 22, 2010 1:28pm
I suppose you trade the setups just the same during Thanksgiving week? I received this blog post today about being careful during Thanksgiving http://www.forex4noobs.com/blog/fore...ksgiving-week/

NeoRio
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #631
  • Nov 22, 2010 10:28pm Nov 22, 2010 10:28pm
NeoRio:

Your videos are excellent and vey well done. Thanks for this.

FX_California
Quoting NeoRio
In an effort to make my chart-showing a little more understandable and easy to follow, I made 4 short videos:

Video 1

Video 2

Video 3

Video 4

Kind Regards,
NeoRio
  • #632
  • Nov 23, 2010 7:17am Nov 23, 2010 7:17am
Hi Dan,

I can't post a chart right now but please can you give me your advice on the following:

EURCHF - I went long of the nice BUOB off 1.33 Support / Resistance zone from 11/11/10. The trend was UP as far as I could see, price went in my favour and produced a BEOB yesterday, I didn't move my stops to BE as it hadn't made it up to previous high and I couldn't really see any strong resistance. Did you play this bar? If you did, did you move your stops and why? If you didn't play it, any reason why?

EURUSD - went short last night of the BEOB off 1.37 zone, since price has been ranging for so long, I don't consider it to be in an uptrend, did you play this bar? any comments?

Thanks,
Pira
  • #633
  • Nov 23, 2010 7:24am Nov 23, 2010 7:24am
Quoting NaughtyPip
Hi Dan, this is really helpful, I cant thank you enough.

My biggest hurdle at the moment I guess is trying to figure out market sentiment, is the trend continuing, or are we still in retracement, can i look to go long yet, or should i wait. The Eur/usd for example, I was very tempted to take a long at that 50% fib as i thought it was at a great position landing on weekly support aswell, but managed to sit on my hand.

Is this a typical situation where you will not take a long because it hasnt yet returned to the trendline?

Also, if you had...
Hi NP,

I'm glad to have been some help! I fear I may have mislaid people with my last post... whilst I highlighted potential setups from the weekly charts I do not trade weekly setups... I use them as analysis only. I have mentioned that before but thought I better just reaffirm that point.

Whilst I don't like talking about H4 trading at the moment I will make an exception for you as you have a great avatar! Yes, basically if I were trading the 2009 method I would be selling.

Having said that I am trading the "daily" trend and I am still selling!

I sold EU at the break of yesterday's bearish engulfing bar. I have also sold the EC shooting star I mentioned at the end of last week.

Regards,

Dan
  • #634
  • Nov 23, 2010 7:30am Nov 23, 2010 7:30am
Quoting NaughtyPip
Is this a typical situation where you will not take a long because it hasnt yet returned to the trendline?
Sorry I missed this one... in part yes. My analysis is based on all the factors... trendlines, fib retracements, higher highs/lows, lower highs/lows and most importantly support and resistance levels.

In the case of the Euro price has broken down below key s/r at 1.3750 which also invalidates the latest swing low. The bearish engulfing bar that formed yesterday gave me a signal to sell off of the retracement to 1.3750. At the same time I was aware that a break above this could signal a move higher up which is why I wait for candlestick patterns to confirm my entries.

Hope that makes sense!

Regards,

Dan
  • #635
  • Nov 23, 2010 7:36am Nov 23, 2010 7:36am
Quoting laranja
Hi Dan,

Are you considering a short trade on Eur/CAD, based on the daily shooting star?

If so can you elaborate a bit more? I actually see Eur/CAD a bit like Eur/USD,

they both reach the 50% fib from last swing high-low; they both have a hammer on weekly and shooting star on daily... Actually eur/cad is in uptrend for the last 6 month, so trading the shooting star wouldn't it be a countertrend?

Do you consider 1.40 as a big resistance (besides and obvious round number?)
Hi laranja,

Yes I am short EUR/CAD. I am also short EUR/USD.

In my opinion the weekly bar on E/C was more like a spinning top than a hammer; signalling indecision. Also the shooting star on the daily was a very good formation off of a big round number which I consider to be important. I favoured shorts because of this.

I also favoured shorts on the E/U due to the fact that any long placed would run directly into trouble at 1.3750. As it happened price gapped up and invalidated Friday's setup bar but did form a very nice bearish engulfing bar yesterday.

And just to clarify again... I don't actually trade weekly candlestick patterns... I only trade daily and 4 hourly setups but I do use the weekly bars as part of my analysis.

Hope that clears things up a bit.

Regards,

Dan
  • #636
  • Nov 23, 2010 7:50am Nov 23, 2010 7:50am
Quoting NeoRio
Hey folks, hi Dan,

Just wanted to chime in and say howdy. I've subscribed to your thread and look forward to continuing on here. I ran into a post of yours by chance on the Jacko thread a couple weeks ago, Dan. You mentioned your thread...and I'm glad you did, because I was looking for a home to this kind of trading since the Jacko thread has died out.

I started trading the H4 and D1 TFs about 4 months ago when a trading friend got me interested in trading with Fibs and round numbers. He had followed Jacko's thread for a long time and gathered...
Hi NeoRio,

Welcome! I look forward to more of your contributions.

I have kept the thread on the "daily" perspective for now as it is easier to assess the trend on the daily chart rather than on the 4 hourly chart.

I do also trade H4 setups but they are done from the perspective of the daily trend. Essentially the way I trade H4 is the same as my Daily trading... I look for an "area of interest" to trade from and when price gets there I look for a setup either on the H4 chart or the Daily. The only difference for me is that the quality of the setup bar must be better on the H4 chart whereas I am not so concerned about the perfect looking bar on the Daily chart.

Hope that makes sense!

Regards,

Dan
  • #637
  • Nov 23, 2010 7:54am Nov 23, 2010 7:54am
Quoting GJP
Hi Dan,

Thanks for your latest view's. You mention in your summary of seeing trading signals on the 1D and weekly charts, if one signal was bullish and the other bearish, what would you do? All comments welcome.

Cheers.
Hi GJP,

I caused a bit of confusion here didn't I! First of all, I should say that I don't trade the weekly candles. The R:R just doesn't do it for me. I only use them for analysis.

However, in this scenario I assess both signals and come to the best conclusion I can, in the case of the E/U and E/C this is what I came to:

In my opinion the weekly bar on E/C was more like a spinning top than a hammer; signalling indecision. Also the shooting star on the daily was a very good formation off of a big round number which I consider to be important. I favoured shorts because of this.

I also favoured shorts on the E/U due to the fact that any long placed would run directly into trouble at 1.3750. As it happened price gapped up and invalidated Friday's setup bar but did form a very nice bearish engulfing bar yesterday.

Regards,

Dan
  • #638
  • Nov 23, 2010 8:02am Nov 23, 2010 8:02am
Quoting Pirabuji
Hi Dan,

I can't post a chart right now but please can you give me your advice on the following:

EURCHF - I went long of the nice BUOB off 1.33 Support / Resistance zone from 11/11/10. The trend was UP as far as I could see, price went in my favour and produced a BEOB yesterday, I didn't move my stops to BE as it hadn't made it up to previous high and I couldn't really see any strong resistance. Did you play this bar? If you did, did you move your stops and why? If you didn't play it, any reason why?

EURUSD - went short last night of the BEOB...
Hi Pira,

EUR/CHF - A couple of problems here... the first is that we don't have very much historical data of price in this area and as such s/r areas are harder to spot. I don't actually see a setup there... if you could post a chart it would help. If I had traded from that sort of area I would have looked to move my stop to BE if price struggled at 1.3500 (big round number)... as it happens it broke through pretty well but the shooting star that formed on Friday would have given me enough concern to move my stop to BE.

EUR/USD - I am short off of the same setup so as far as I am concerned this is a good trade.

Regards,

Dan
  • #639
  • Nov 23, 2010 12:41pm Nov 23, 2010 12:41pm
Quoting DanUK
Sorry I missed this one... in part yes. My analysis is based on all the factors... trendlines, fib retracements, higher highs/lows, lower highs/lows and most importantly support and resistance levels.

In the case of the Euro price has broken down below key s/r at 1.3750 which also invalidates the latest swing low. The bearish engulfing bar that formed yesterday gave me a signal to sell off of the retracement to 1.3750. At the same time I was aware that a break above this could signal a move higher up which is why I wait for candlestick patterns...
Much appreciated
  • #640
  • Nov 23, 2010 4:56pm Nov 23, 2010 4:56pm
Quoting DanUK
Welcome! I look forward to more of your contributions.
Thank you, glad to have found this thread.

Quoting DanUK
I do also trade H4 setups but they are done from the perspective of the daily trend.
Got it, same setup idea on the D1 and H4.

Quoting DanUK
The only difference for me is that the quality of the setup bar must be better on the H4 chart whereas I am not so concerned about the perfect looking bar on the Daily chart.
I suppose you mean the candle formation? ie, on the H4, you want to see a perfect IB, OB, Shooting Star, Hammer, etc...which has formed at the end of an impulse move?

Not sure if you had a chance to see the videos I posted. In this video, if you forward to the 2 minute mark, I asked about candle formations. I was hoping you might comment a little bit about the usage of candle patterns for a confirmation on entry. If you don't mind me asking, what inspired you to use candle patterns for further confirmation after the 50% fib level, S&R levels and TL's? As you know, Jacko (and others) relied quite heavily on the 50% Fib retracement level for entry (with as much confluence from other elements as possible), so to incorporate the candle formation for further confirmation can often lead to an entry of 100+ pips further away from where we may have entered. While I do really like using the reliable PA element of reading candlesticks for getting an ideal entry, I'm curious to hear a bit more from you on why you use the candlesticks even if it means giving up quite a few pips when we're trading on the D1 and H4 TFs. OTOH, if it means that 80%-90% of your entries will be profitable compared to 70%-80%, then I would understand, I think.

Quoting DanUK
I sold EU at the break of yesterday's bearish engulfing bar.
I'm curious about this entry. I also took an EU short yesterday for 170 pips, but based on a different trading method. While I see the OB on the D1, I thought that maybe you were still in the EU long from the 50% fib strike earlier (please see my charts below). My S&R level was at a slightly different level than yours, I had mine drawn in at 1.3700. However, with the major trend on the EU still looking rather bullish (in spite of everything you hear on the fundamental side of things), I just thought you would be looking more for long positions to take on the EU.

BTW, do you ever look for smaller trades?--like 100+ pip trades, or are all your entries looking to get the big move?

Thanks,
NeoRio
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
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