USD/JPY Discussion | Page 1081 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/JPY

Similar Threads

USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies

Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies

Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion
Exit Attachments

USD/JPY Discussion

  • #21,601
  • Nov 21, 2010 4:22pm Nov 21, 2010 4:22pm
Quoting realjumper
The weekly chart looks good but the daily not so good until that 83.60 gets broken.
Morning realjumper! Hope you had a good weekend!

I agree the daily is starting to look a bit worn out.
I have attached an hourly chart where we can see price touched the 0.618 Fib line perfectly.
If we see a dive back down to around 83.00 from here we may see a head and shoulders pattern complete with next support coming in around 82.50.
Could be a good opportunity to add to longs, but I would prefer to wait until 82.00 or for the weekly pivot S2 at around 81.82.
It will be interesting this week to see how traders play the Ireland story and will we see more Dollar buying on the fear of other European countries going the same route.


H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy1.png Size: 131 KB
  • #21,602
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:10pm Nov 21, 2010 8:10pm
Quoting fosking
Morning realjumper! Hope you had a good weekend!

I agree the daily is starting to look a bit worn out.
I have attached an hourly chart where we can see price touched the 0.618 Fib line perfectly.
If we see a dive back down to around 83.00 from here we may see a head and shoulders pattern complete with next support coming in around 82.50.
Could be a good opportunity to add to longs, but I would prefer to wait until 82.00 or for the weekly pivot S2 at around 81.82.
It will be interesting this week to see how traders play the Ireland story...
i will add my long if it goes back to 81.80/90
  • #21,603
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:31pm Nov 21, 2010 8:31pm
I will add continuously as it goes lower....
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #21,604
  • Nov 22, 2010 3:10am Nov 22, 2010 3:10am
Quoting grashid
i will add my long if it goes back to 81.80/90
I will be playing it out the same way as 81.80 should see strong support.
A break of around 81.80 will take us to 85.50 where support should be extra strong with a lot of buy orders and short covering taking place to push us back up.
  • #21,605
  • Nov 22, 2010 3:36am Nov 22, 2010 3:36am
Quoting fosking
I will be playing it out the same way as 81.80 should see strong support.
A break of around 81.80 will take us to 85.50 where support should be extra strong with a lot of buy orders and short covering taking place to push us back up.
yup..but current 1365 gold could drive this more before that area....mmm

i'll watching daily gold closely atm...catch u later in NY ...cheers
  • #21,606
  • Nov 22, 2010 1:47pm Nov 22, 2010 1:47pm
Morning girls!

Free 24 hr DowJ link, read the FOrex Focus... quite interesting

http://www.djnewsplus.com/ge/al?rnd=CKYP0meTRtMQ5ML5o75bEQ%3D%3D
  • #21,607
  • Nov 22, 2010 4:51pm Nov 22, 2010 4:51pm
Evening Traders!

It was a real battle today against two big safe haven currencies with the Yen just coming out on top. For most of the day we were in a tight range as both the Dollar and the Yen were being well bid.
Today I was keeping an eye on commodities to track the other big safe haven gold. I have attached a gold chart which shows a break above the recent resistance. This is significant because gold is negatively correlated to USD/JPY. The chart may offer some clues to future movements on the gold price if 1,386 isn't broken and forms resistance. Dropping back down to 1,325 will have formed a head and shoulders pattern which may push us further south and hence, the USD/JPY further north.
I have also attached a Dollar Index Futures chart where we can see a descending trend line which may be close to being broken. A break above this trend line and an initial target of 80.00 is on the cards with a possible break up to 82.00.
Correlating both a Gold head and shoulders pattern and the Dollar futures trend line break should be healthy reasons to long USD/JPY.
Finally I have attached a USD/JPY H4 chart where we can see we have bounced of the weekly pivot and should this hold a run up to 84.00 is likely. A break below and major support comes in at 82.00 and the weekly S2 pivot.

Hope everyone has a profitable day!


Gold H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.png Size: 114 KB


Dollar Index Futures H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx.png Size: 300 KB


USD/JPY H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy1.png Size: 138 KB
  • #21,608
  • Nov 22, 2010 6:14pm Nov 22, 2010 6:14pm
Quoting fosking
Evening Traders!

It was a real battle today against two big safe haven currencies with the Yen just coming out on top. For most of the day we were in a tight range as both the Dollar and the Yen were being well bid.
Today I was keeping an eye on commodities to track the other big safe haven gold. I have attached a gold chart which shows a break above the recent resistance. This is significant because gold is negatively correlated to USD/JPY. The chart may offer some clues to future movements on the gold price if 1,386 isn't broken and forms resistance....
Excellent post, as always. You are exactly right, it's a battle of the safe haven currencies at the moment. We can't forget the swissie, that has also been well bid lately. Quite when this little bubble will burst is hard to say, but I have a sneaky feeling that it won't be too far away.

I remain with 2 longs on this pair right now, and I will look to add more as we go up. I've got no position on the swissie just yet, but that might change over the coming days/weeks.

The mess in the EZ is not over with the bail out of Ireland, far from it.

Your USDX chart is good....I too am waiting to see 80.00 fall.....when it does, I expect to see UJ well on it's way to the 90's....

No need for me to post charts.....your charts look fine to me
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,609
  • Nov 22, 2010 6:24pm Nov 22, 2010 6:24pm
I'm also watching this on EJ as well.....whilest not textbook, it's worth keeping a Noda type eye on it
Attached Image
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,610
  • Nov 22, 2010 6:27pm Nov 22, 2010 6:27pm
Quoting realjumper
No need for me to post charts.....your charts look fine to me
Thank you realjumper!

There was talk today of Portugal coming under a bit of strain before the PM came out and said there was no problems. Hmm not gonna buy that just yet, look at Ireland two weeks ago compared to today. More EZ countries will have to be bailed out before this is over, just my opinion. Traders have decided to give the US a break temporarily so they need to slaughter some economy somewhere. The EZ just stands out like the nerdy kid in the playground at the moment and looks and is easy target.
  • #21,611
  • Nov 22, 2010 6:30pm Nov 22, 2010 6:30pm
Quoting fosking
Thank you realjumper!

There was talk today of Portugal coming under a bit of strain before the PM came out and said there was no problems. Hmm not gonna buy that just yet, look at Ireland two weeks ago compared to today. More EZ countries will have to be bailed out before this is over, just my opinion. Traders have decided to give the US a break temporarily so they need to slaughter some economy somewhere. The EZ just stands out like the nerdy kid in the playground at the moment and looks and is easy target.
Indeed the EZ does stand out at the moment. Once the focus goes away from EZ and USA, whenever that will be, the next likely candidate will be Japan with it's 260% of GDP debt!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,612
  • Nov 22, 2010 6:32pm Nov 22, 2010 6:32pm
Quoting realjumper
I'm also watching this on EJ as well.....whilest not textbook, it's worth keeping a Noda type eye on it
The chart looks promising!
Noda never takes his eye off the ball lol
  • #21,613
  • Nov 22, 2010 6:36pm Nov 22, 2010 6:36pm
Quoting realjumper
Indeed the EZ does stand out at the moment. Once the focus goes away from EZ and USA, whenever that will be, the next likely candidate will be Japan with it's 260% of GDP debt!!
Completely. I read an article in The Economist over the weekend on the japanese economy and they painted it a lot worse than I had previously imagined. I honestly don't see the USD/JPY going anywhere but up. How long will the Yen be a safe haven trade I don't know, but I would be pretty confident on saying over the next 12 months we should see it considerably weaken, and certainly against the Dollar.
  • #21,614
  • Nov 22, 2010 6:41pm Nov 22, 2010 6:41pm
Hope everyone's been well here ... haven't been posting much here because, well, who can figure out USDJPY, and worse, who can make sense of anything Japanese!? (BTW, can't wait to travel there one day!)

Took a quick look back among the tumbleweeds here, and didn't see any references to yesterday's Noda rearing - did anyone catch that he'd rolled out the "fx stability, will act, including intervention" speech when microphones were stuck in front of his gums? I've been wondering why yesterday ... an awakening from slumber? Couldn't find another equally complicated script? Nothin' else to talk about? Or, did he forsee something ...

Just got to thinking about it today given the relatively big & directioned 30 pip USDJPY drop (hey, that's big for USDJPY!) and repeated failure of 83.5ish. I wonder if he'll repeat tonight? Sure would be nice to be treated to the avails of another $20B+ of BoJ money ... you know, that war chest is gettin' kinda dusty ...
  • #21,615
  • Nov 22, 2010 6:43pm Nov 22, 2010 6:43pm
Quoting fosking
Completely. I read an article in The Economist over the weekend on the japanese economy and they painted it a lot worse than I had previously imagined. I honestly don't see the USD/JPY going anywhere but up. How long will the Yen be a safe haven trade I don't know, but I would be pretty confident on saying over the next 12 months we should see it considerably weaken, and certainly against the Dollar.
I agree, and given the mess that that Japanese economy has got itself into, it's a wonder it has a 'safe haven' status all. It does have a very large current account, which may be it's saving grace for now, but somehow Japan has let slip quite a bit of market share, especially in electronics and automobiles which have slipped to Korea and China, and that's market share that won't come back. Further, Korea (and China) keep a tight grip on their currency value whch makes their products more cost effective for export. Now, Japan on the other hand is content to let their currency float (more or less) freely, and that too is hurting them....and costing more market share of manufactured goods.

Add to all that the aging population, unemployment and the high cost of living, things don't look so rosy for the safe haven Yen.....imo!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,616
  • Nov 22, 2010 6:47pm Nov 22, 2010 6:47pm
Quoting Beljevina
Hope everyone's been well here ... haven't been posting much here because, well, who can figure out USDJPY, and worse, who can make sense of anything Japanese!? (BTW, can't wait to travel there one day!)

Took a quick look back among the tumbleweeds here, and didn't see any references to yesterday's Noda rearing - did anyone catch that he'd rolled out the "fx stability, will act, including intervention" speech when microphones were stuck in front of his gums? I've been wondering why yesterday ... an awakening from slumber? Couldn't find another...
Hard to say what Noda is thinking.....his rhetoric is like worn out record....or.....perhaps he believes that his rhetoric is responsible for the decline of the Yen over the past weeks, and he figures that he can indeed talk and threaten the Yen down. I'm sure he's not that stupid, but you know.....the boy who cried wolf......
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #21,617
  • Nov 22, 2010 8:52pm Nov 22, 2010 8:52pm
Quoting fosking
Evening Traders!

It was a real battle today against two big safe haven currencies with the Yen just coming out on top. For most of the day we were in a tight range as both the Dollar and the Yen were being well bid.
Today I was keeping an eye on commodities to track the other big safe haven gold. I have attached a gold chart which shows a break above the recent resistance. This is significant because gold is negatively correlated to USD/JPY. The chart may offer some clues to future movements on the gold price if 1,386 isn't broken and forms...
check ur gold daily as well...then we will feel the pain...1387? mmm
  • #21,618
  • Nov 23, 2010 12:26am Nov 23, 2010 12:26am
rally on the 30min chart just broke wedge resistance level
Happening now.

what do you guys think?
  • #21,619
  • Nov 23, 2010 12:35am Nov 23, 2010 12:35am
Wow,,,,dollar rises... could we see 84 level later? i do think so...
  • #21,620
  • Nov 23, 2010 12:40am Nov 23, 2010 12:40am
Quoting japhar
Wow,,,,dollar rises... could we see 84 level later? i do think so...
It's possible, but it's got to get a good foothold above 83.60 first. If 83.60 holds, then I see no reason why we can't head on up to 85.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
45 traders viewing now