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  • #329,461
  • Nov 21, 2010 6:07am Nov 21, 2010 6:07am
Interesting to see some people are bearish...i though everyone were targeting new high after the bounce from its low.
We need to see a confirmation for this weekly hammer. An immediate bullish candle and new high for sure.
But a new weekly low and bye bye euro
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #329,462
  • Nov 21, 2010 6:09am Nov 21, 2010 6:09am
Buy gold and silver puts - especially silver
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #329,463
  • Edited 6:22am Nov 21, 2010 6:09am | Edited 6:22am
I have esignal showing break lower on the daily 1.3604
  • #329,464
  • Nov 21, 2010 6:41am Nov 21, 2010 6:41am
Quoting knuckledrag
QE and QE2 are not quite the same thing as what the BOJ did. The BOJ didn't have the world's reserve currency to play with. While I agree that the dollar will survive. I'm afraid the spiraling downward of the US economy will be furthered and accelerated by inflation.

Do to the nature of the dollars role in the world QE2 is likely to reek financial havoc around the globe Japans foot print on the world was much smaller.

I don't see this ending well.................................
1. Japan had the second largest economy in the world and was only recently surpassed by China
2. The Yen is considered a fiat and safe-haven status currency, maybe not the world's reserve currency, but still an important currency for investors because they do have a LARGE foot print on the world with regards to GDP.
3. Commodities are priced in $. If $ becomes very weak, these commodities will become very expensive for the RoW. Why do you think there was international uproar to the FED's decision.
4. What recent US inflation figures? One of the reasons why the FED decided on QE2 is because of deflationary fears -

http://www.inflationdata.com/inflati...tinflation.asp

2% is healthy inflation. Above 3% and it becomes painful, below 1% and deflation looks to set in as it did in 2009.

It depends how long your outlook on the $ is and if inflation does set in and when. Japan are still waiting for inflation 10 years down the line!

I am not comparing the US and Greece... I am comparing the largest and third largest economies in this world. The US told Japan in 2001 not to commence QE. 10 years down the line and the US is repeating what Japan did. Therefore, it is a valid comparison!
  • #329,465
  • Nov 21, 2010 6:55am Nov 21, 2010 6:55am
Quoting Forexfsa
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...oy-bank-crisis
That's just political sheeet-stirring!
  • #329,466
  • Nov 21, 2010 7:12am Nov 21, 2010 7:12am
any one expect euro sink comming week?
  • #329,467
  • Nov 21, 2010 7:22am Nov 21, 2010 7:22am
Nothing personal but i sort of See EU rising abit around 1.3800 before another drop happens...
EU is sort of forcing Ireland to take the bail
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #329,468
  • Nov 21, 2010 7:23am Nov 21, 2010 7:23am
Quoting Alihuzaifa
any one expect euro sink comming week?
I have expectations that Euro will fall.
  • #329,469
  • Nov 21, 2010 7:31am Nov 21, 2010 7:31am
BREAKING NEWS
Irish finance minister says he will
recommend Ireland seek loans from EU, IMF, according to AP.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #329,470
  • Nov 21, 2010 7:35am Nov 21, 2010 7:35am
Quoting cloggie
Government is meeting tomorrow to iron out the details, expect a "getting close" announcement tomorrow night, just in time for Welly TY open and a bit more details on Monday morning, just after the London and the final details on Tuesday, just in time for the Flashes.

Ireland is not the wildcard in this, they are the poker player holding a Royal Flush. The next Irish bond auction will be oversubscribed by a good multiple.
Looks like all is going to plan.

Quoting cloggie

Ireland needs to play this carefully and just sit back till all the EU countries fall over themselves to give them the most favourable terms on a bailout. The perfect condition would be for the EU to take over the guarantee for AIB and AI, that may be pushing it a bit far though, we'll see. The EU needs Ireland, Ireland couldn't care less, lovely.
Ireland may get its wish with the bailout pretty much giving the bank guarantees to the EU bailout fund.

They may actually get away with it. They need to agree on the final framework of cuts so they can meet with the EU/IMF tomorrow and clearly state that as a country they are fine, but if the EU/IMF is so desperate to give them some dosh, why don't you then take over the bank guarantees... This will also be the best solution for the UK.

Now let's watch the rates Portugal pays nudging 7% this week with the alarms going of as soon as it touches 7.5%. Between 7.5-8 we will see another rating downgrade as the linear increase of rates becomes unsustainable.

If I were an FI guy, Irish debt set to go down, UK to follow, Portugal/Spain up, keep dumping Greece.
  • #329,471
  • Nov 21, 2010 7:39am Nov 21, 2010 7:39am
Quoting bbakker
I am not comparing the US and Greece... I am comparing the largest and third largest economies in this world. The US told Japan in 2001 not to commence QE. 10 years down the line and the US is repeating what Japan did. Therefore, it is a valid comparison!
On a final note, I am not stating that what happened in Japan will happen in the US. It is one of many possibilities... the key is to entertain all possibilities and not to just focus on one particular outcome that might happen. I see too many posts on here that have a very narrowed blinkered outlook and I believe that it is detrimental to one's technical analysis.

I don't know what is going to happen to the $ over the next 24 hours, let alone the next 10 years. I use my technical analysis to try and determine future swing points in any particular financial instrument based on previous price action around demand and supply.
  • #329,472
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:16am Nov 21, 2010 8:16am
Quoting bbakker
On a final note, I am not stating that what happened in Japan will happen in the US. It is one of many possibilities... the key is to entertain all possibilities and not to just focus on one particular outcome that might happen. I see too many posts on here that have a very narrowed blinkered outlook and I believe that it is detrimental to one's technical analysis.

I don't know what is going to happen to the $ over the next 24 hours, let alone the next 10 years. I use my technical analysis to try and determine future swing points in any particular...


you are right, why not consentrate more on the current data than looking forwrd to the futre.i believe that eur/usd will be bullish to about 1.3700 then a reversal is bound to occur looking at this week news reports.
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  • #329,473
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:27am Nov 21, 2010 8:27am
my point of wiev
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  • #329,474
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:32am Nov 21, 2010 8:32am
Quoting Bootleger
I was there, just not posting in that thread. Was just happy to see a little retracement after that move up from below 1.30, this is a healthy sign and I'm not worrying at all when it goes down, I really like it.

I don't care if the Euro is down for a week or a month, it gives us better buying opportunities...

to ask, do u have a tp or sl?
  • #329,475
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:33am Nov 21, 2010 8:33am
It really great to hear majority of people out here are bears. That is a good indicator for me,
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #329,476
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:34am Nov 21, 2010 8:34am
Quoting Pipmysterio
It really great to hear majority of people out here are bears. That is a good indicator for me,
Yup, keep buying.
  • #329,477
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:34am Nov 21, 2010 8:34am
http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/200...NTS_index.html

Original and excellent post by sinner-
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...61#post4187461
  • #329,478
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:38am Nov 21, 2010 8:38am
Quoting cloggie
yup, keep buying.
the euro rejected it down trend on the weekly chart. Most of you guys here do not have deep pockets anyway so i'm buying. Let see how the week ends. I will eat my heart out if we close lower than fridays close. We are going to 1.40. The Irish deal is done.
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #329,479
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:40am Nov 21, 2010 8:40am
Quoting Pipmysterio
the euro rejected it down trend on the weekly chart. Most of you guys hear do not have deep pockets anyway so i'm buying. Let see how the week ends. I will eat my heart out if we close lower than fridays close. We are going to 1.40.
..

Quoting cloggie

Now we wait for Spain and Portugal to implode, won't be long.


Let's see this manipulated to no end, time to move up a few hundred, trickle some more news, down a few hundred, find a solution, up a few hundred, trickle a bit more news, rinse and repeat.

My money is on Portugal next, obvious choice, all the hallmarks are there.
Next week we should have some great opportunities when the fundies and techies are pulling in the same direction giving us a good few rallies again. Watch the news and briefings get manipulated just when the market needs it the most. Then Portugal will hit the fan.

As a day trader, this is all just semantics to me, I really don't give a toss where it goes; my buy button gets as much use as my sell button. Why do I care so much? When I can identify that the fundamentals support the technicals, I go in heavy.
  • #329,480
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:41am Nov 21, 2010 8:41am
Everyone trying to hard to find the direction and it seems the general consensus is bear.

I'll let my chart tell me which way we are going
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