hahahaha thats the us equvalent of a couple of senators spending money on a michael bolton concert 
- #329,441
- Nov 20, 2010 8:24pm Nov 20, 2010 8:24pm
- Joined Jun 2009 | Status: A slave to the tape | 4,390 Posts
- #329,442
- Nov 20, 2010 9:59pm Nov 20, 2010 9:59pm
hi guys,
I'm still in middle school class of babypips..
I'd like to share my opinion and hope you all could give me some inputs..
Right now i'm on bear bias (80%).
Reasons are (regardless of fundamental analysis):
1. Monthly --> This month candle is a little bit below 76.4% fibo of Nov 09 (high) & june 10 (low). It's almost the same with the LH of Nov 09. Nov 09 is 76.4 % retracment of July 08 (high) & oct 08 (low)
2. Weekly --> the reason last week ranging is because feb - april 10 the price was ranging also in the same level
3. daily --> friday high in 23.6% fibo. it could be only retracement even the last 2 days is bull.
4. TF 15m - 1h --> my chart indicate the candle is forming a gartley (62.5% complete). I used FX open which close at 1.3684. But I saw in other broker (close 1 hour after FX), the price went up to 1.3964 then down to 1.3669 and close at 1.3672.
5. TF 15m - 1h --> also performing a wedges. it creates new high (slower pace then HL) & HL ( hope my understanding of wedge is correct)
6. TF 15m --> candle formation looks the same with oct 14 (oct more horizontal) which followed by downtrend
Thus, Since it is almost at the tip of wedges and if the gartley forming is happened then my expectation is the price falls to 1.3628 (the effect of gartley) then falling more because of wedges
right now, I don't have any scenario yet for the 20% bull bias if the price up more than 1.3749 (15 oct high price)
ps.. just read some new post and it's discussing about news
, hope my 20% bull bias is not the winner because of the news. I now nothing about fundamental yet 
I'm still in middle school class of babypips..
I'd like to share my opinion and hope you all could give me some inputs.. Right now i'm on bear bias (80%).
Reasons are (regardless of fundamental analysis):
1. Monthly --> This month candle is a little bit below 76.4% fibo of Nov 09 (high) & june 10 (low). It's almost the same with the LH of Nov 09. Nov 09 is 76.4 % retracment of July 08 (high) & oct 08 (low)
2. Weekly --> the reason last week ranging is because feb - april 10 the price was ranging also in the same level
3. daily --> friday high in 23.6% fibo. it could be only retracement even the last 2 days is bull.
4. TF 15m - 1h --> my chart indicate the candle is forming a gartley (62.5% complete). I used FX open which close at 1.3684. But I saw in other broker (close 1 hour after FX), the price went up to 1.3964 then down to 1.3669 and close at 1.3672.
5. TF 15m - 1h --> also performing a wedges. it creates new high (slower pace then HL) & HL ( hope my understanding of wedge is correct)
6. TF 15m --> candle formation looks the same with oct 14 (oct more horizontal) which followed by downtrend
Thus, Since it is almost at the tip of wedges and if the gartley forming is happened then my expectation is the price falls to 1.3628 (the effect of gartley) then falling more because of wedges
right now, I don't have any scenario yet for the 20% bull bias if the price up more than 1.3749 (15 oct high price)
ps.. just read some new post and it's discussing about news
, hope my 20% bull bias is not the winner because of the news. I now nothing about fundamental yet 
- #329,443
- Nov 20, 2010 11:32pm Nov 20, 2010 11:32pm
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Hello,Mr.Market | 1,806 Posts
what is the power driving the market moved weekend？？ the rate now is 1.3646 . and is there any indication for the next week . 
A chart helps those who can read it.
- #329,444
- Nov 20, 2010 11:49pm Nov 20, 2010 11:49pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,413 Posts
what is the power driving the market moved weekend？？ the rate now is 1.3646 . and is there any indication for the next week .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
- #329,449
- Edited 2:38am Nov 21, 2010 2:16am | Edited 2:38am
- Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Inactive | 6,482 Posts
All currencies are trash! One day the USD is trash, the next day EUR is trash and so the never ending cycle continues... lol!
What I am saying is that I am biased neither here nor there and try to keep an objective mind.
Here is my weekly EU analysis chart -
What I am saying is that I am biased neither here nor there and try to keep an objective mind.
Here is my weekly EU analysis chart -
- #329,450
- Nov 21, 2010 3:09am Nov 21, 2010 3:09am
what is the power driving the market moved weekend？？ the rate now is 1.3646 . and is there any indication for the next week .
thx
I sent chart 5 hours ago to this forum, but moderator hasn't approved yet
ahh well..the disadvantage being junior member 
let see if this reply could pass
- #329,453
- Edited 5:19am Nov 21, 2010 4:38am | Edited 5:19am
- Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Inactive | 6,482 Posts
is a doji;
and the immediate trend is down.
Immediate trend on the weekly is down, but we broke the down trendline on the h1/h4 chart. I see further weakness in this pair, but a retrace first back to the 1.39-1.40 is more likely.
- #329,454
- Nov 21, 2010 5:08am Nov 21, 2010 5:08am
- Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Inactive | 6,482 Posts
I have updated the weekly charts and circled the weekly candlesticks where the FED formally announced QE and QE2. You can see how price went up with the rumours and how price surged and then went down afterwards at the time of the QE announcements. History has a tendency to repeat and in my view we are in overbought territory with some big weekly supply zones above current price
For those who say that the $ is doomed, Japan started QE back in the early '00s (noughties), not to mention their current debt ratio to GDP and looking at the Yen pairs today it seems a very stong currency to the point where the BoJ intervened
I wish you a successful trading week!
For those who say that the $ is doomed, Japan started QE back in the early '00s (noughties), not to mention their current debt ratio to GDP and looking at the Yen pairs today it seems a very stong currency to the point where the BoJ intervened
I wish you a successful trading week!
- #329,455
- Nov 21, 2010 5:23am Nov 21, 2010 5:23am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Live and learn. | 25,162 Posts
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
- #329,456
- Nov 21, 2010 5:24am Nov 21, 2010 5:24am
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Are you sure this is how its done? | 2,331 Posts
A doji has no candlestick body and the opening and closing prices are the same. Last week's candlestick does have a body, albeit a small one.
Immediate trend on the weekly is down, but we broke the down trendline on the h1/h4 chart. I see further weakness in this pair, but a retrace back to the 1.39-1.40 is more likely.
We should know in 20 or so hours
The daily outlook could go either way, but for now the trend is ambiguous.
Have we retested and found a new high range??????
Have we completed a pullback to the 50% Fib??????
- #329,457
- Edited 7:43am Nov 21, 2010 5:46am | Edited 7:43am
- Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Inactive | 6,482 Posts
We should know in 20 or so hours
The daily outlook could go either way, but for now the trend is ambiguous.
Have we retested and found a new high range??????
Have we completed a pullback to the 50% Fib??????
Attachment
Anything can happen! Working of the daily charts, for me, current price is in no mans land.
- #329,459
- Nov 21, 2010 5:58am Nov 21, 2010 5:58am
- Joined Sep 2008 | Status: Are you sure this is how its done? | 2,331 Posts
I have updated the weekly charts and circled the weekly candlesticks where the FED formally announced QE and QE2. You can see how price went up with the rumours and how price surged and then went down afterwards at the time of the QE announcements. History has a tendency to repeat and in my view we are in overbought territory with some big weekly supply zones above current price
Attachment
For those who say that the $ is doomed, Japan started QE back in the early '00s (noughties), not to mention their current debt ratio to GDP...
QE and QE2 are not quite the same thing as what the BOJ did. The BOJ didn't have the world's reserve currency to play with. While I agree that the dollar will survive. I'm afraid the spiraling downward of the US economy will be furthered and accelerated by inflation.
Do to the nature of the dollars role in the world QE2 is likely to reek financial havoc around the globe
Japans foot print on the world was much smaller. I don't see this ending well.................................
- #329,460
- Nov 21, 2010 6:05am Nov 21, 2010 6:05am
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
If this is how you feel, a suggestion, trade and buy Gold!
All the Majors, besides swissy which is, well, only concerned about the euro are struggling. Gold will prevail in my view.
Just my 2 cents.
I am bullish euro above 3300 bearish on 3000 break
All the Majors, besides swissy which is, well, only concerned about the euro are struggling. Gold will prevail in my view.
Just my 2 cents.
I am bullish euro above 3300 bearish on 3000 break
QE and QE2 are not quite the same thing as what the BOJ did. The BOJ didn't have the world's reserve currency to play with. While I agree that the dollar will survive. I'm afraid the spiraling downward of the US economy will be furthered and accelerated by inflation.
Do to the nature of the dollars role in the world QE2 is likely to reek financial havoc around the globe
I don't see this ending well.................................
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News