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DanUK's Advanced Trend Trading Strategy

  • #581
  • Nov 9, 2010 3:10pm Nov 9, 2010 3:10pm
Quoting Location
[/list]
Hi Dan:

In the trade summary you mentioned that breakouts can be entry points in this method. Is looking for PA formations within a sideways market how you anticipate breakouts? Do you use Fibs and/or Trendlines?

I hope that I am not trying to overcomplicate things, but can you provide some guidance regarding how you analyze, and utilize breakouts? Thanks for all the great teaching.
Hello again,

I haven't gone into too much detail about breakouts yet because I feel the importance of grasping the method and simple entries with candlestick patterns (or "PA") is the best way to learn with my approach. For breakouts I tend to use trendlines and horizontal support and resistance. With trendlines I am looking for price to respect a counter-trend trendline with at least two or three touches and then for a breakout to occur with respect to that trendline.

For now though, I recommend to entries with PA only.

Regards,

Dan
  • #582
  • Nov 9, 2010 3:19pm Nov 9, 2010 3:19pm
Quoting PipRiderFX
Hi Dan,

Thanks for all of you really helpful threads and posts.

I have a few quick questions if you don't mind.

1: How do you define a trend? Is it a series of higher highs and high lows in and uptrend and the reverse in a donw trend? - If this is the case could you please let me know how to read these as you mentioned on one post that you were short Euro all the way down to around 1.26 which was a great trade but there was one place where you could have come out of the trade. It was around the 11th of April. On my charts it seems as though...
Hi PipRiderFX,

Answers as follows:

1. I do use the higher highs/lows and lower lows/highs analysis on the daily charts to guage the trend however I do it in conjunction with the "key" support and resistance levels that I have mentioned in the past. If I may direct you to this post hopefully it will help: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...99#post4070899

2. The best way to enter on the break of a counter trend trendline is to drop down to say H4 time frame and watch price break out and then come back to retest the old/broken trendline - if at this time you get a signal (shooting star/engulfing pattern etc) you can enter. However, as this involves dropping down below the daily timeframe I have refrained from going into this for now.

3. Generally speaking I am looking at the really obvious swings... if it isn't obvious and you really have to look for it then you are probably looking for something that isn't there... zoom out a bit and look at the real obvious swings.

I hope that helps!

Regards,

Dan
  • #583
  • Nov 9, 2010 3:25pm Nov 9, 2010 3:25pm
Quoting bez3000
Hi Location,

What i would say is "Patience Patience Patience" i know we have all herd it before about waiting for the right setup and not over-trading but it is so true.
I think as a group most of us want to become professional FX traders one day, and with that in mind we think that thee only way to accomplish this is by aways being in a trade (as that's what we believe the professionals do, and lets face it if we are not in a trade are we professional traders?) I would say yes, we don't need to be in a trade all the time to be traders. I found...
Glad I could help!

I like this post... the key points that bez mentions...

Patience - so important, I know it's cliché but it really is vital to learn to weight for the right opportunity.

Not having a position is a position!

Learning to deal with losses - they are inevitable and you have to learn to accept them. For me, this was a big hurdle - I don't like mistakes. I never have. I am a perfectionist as far as my "day job" is concerned and I pride myself on always being right! So it was a big struggle for me to accept that losses happen. But they do. So long as your gains outweigh your losses you are doing it right!

Get rich quick - unfortunately if it was this easy we would all be doing it! It takes time to build up a fortune! And from humble beginnings it takes time but if you stick to a sound MM plan it is possible to build a very considerable fortune.

Good post bez!

Regards,

Dan
  • #584
  • Nov 9, 2010 3:28pm Nov 9, 2010 3:28pm
Quoting NaughtyPip
Does anyone know how soon to move your stop to B/E, assuming your trading from a daily chart?
Hi,

This is my general approach: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...07#post4026107

Regards,

Dan
  • #585
  • Nov 9, 2010 4:59pm Nov 9, 2010 4:59pm
Hi Dan,

Thanks for all your posts. It is really brilliant.

I only have one quick question.

In different examples, you show a hammer as an entry point. Do you actually enter your trade at the end of day when the hammer is complete or do you put a stop order 10 pips above the high of the day?

Would you actually wait for the completion of a morning star?

It might be obvious but I am a little confused.

Regards

Jo
  • #586
  • Nov 10, 2010 4:00am Nov 10, 2010 4:00am
Quoting DanUK
Hi,

This is my general approach: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...07#post4026107

Regards,

Dan
I was looking at my charts this morning and it made me think I should elaborate a little on this...

My general approach is to move my stop to breakeven at one of the points I mention here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...07#post4026107 however there are times when I do not move my stop.

This comes down to experience and comfort. If I have positions open that are already in profit I can afford to be a little more relaxed about moving to breakeven.

There are times where I have entered at a key level that I believe is going to hold unless the trend changes - in these instances I will tend to be more interested in giving the trade room to breathe.

I hope that makes some sense!

Regards,

Dan
  • #587
  • Nov 10, 2010 4:03am Nov 10, 2010 4:03am
Quoting joroel
Hi Dan,

Thanks for all your posts. It is really brilliant.

I only have one quick question.

In different examples, you show a hammer as an entry point. Do you actually enter your trade at the end of day when the hammer is complete or do you put a stop order 10 pips above the high of the day?

Would you actually wait for the completion of a morning star?

It might be obvious but I am a little confused.

Regards

Jo
Hi Jo,

I will wait for the hammer to complete and then place an order beyond the high of the day (and this is normally about 10 pips or so).

Hope that helps.

Regards,

Dan

PS... The opposite (short signal) is a shooting star - I don't trade the morning star pattern.
  • #588
  • Nov 11, 2010 3:38pm Nov 11, 2010 3:38pm
Phew, dont know about you guys, but I'm not seeing too many trades out there at the moment. I appear to of missed a few and looks like I'm going to have to wait for the next train.
  • #589
  • Nov 12, 2010 4:29pm Nov 12, 2010 4:29pm
Yes GJP. I Agree

Ive been doing loads of reading and finally decided to try to put some of my new found knowledge into action. Couldn't find anything that caught my eye. Don't know if I'm missing something or not?
  • #590
  • Nov 13, 2010 5:19am Nov 13, 2010 5:19am
Quoting HxMark
Yes GJP. I Agree

Ive been doing loads of reading and finally decided to try to put some of my new found knowledge into action. Couldn't find anything that caught my eye. Don't know if I'm missing something or not?
Just my opinion for what it's worth guys:

eurcad: BUOB at S&R and 50% fib with trend looks good.

euraud: looking for price to drop below 1.3650 and retest for a short.

audusd: price has dropped to previous resistance area when zoomed out, could that act as support for a long?

eurusd: will price make it down to 1.3350 area to meet strong S&R and 50%fib and possible TL touch for a long?

Just what i am looking at, any thoughts?

Have a great weekend all
  • #591
  • Nov 13, 2010 6:22am Nov 13, 2010 6:22am
Hi guys,

Yes I think things have been quiet lately but that is ok... patience waiting for the right setup is a very, very important part of this trading strategy.

I anticipate some possible trend changes ahead and as mentioned earlier here is my analysis of a few currency pairs:

First though, a quick reminder... support/resistance quoted represents "areas" not "to the pip" lines. This is not meant as trade advice, signals or predictions; it is just a summary of my current market outlook...


USD/CHF – The downward trendline has broken and could be a sign that the trend is changing - I will be watching the 1.000 area for confirmation; if 1.000 holds the downtrend should continue, however if it breaks a new uptrend looks like it might take hold. I won’t be looking to buy unless 1.000 is broken.

EUR/USD – This week has seen the Euro plunge 700 points from it’s recent high of 1.4280 and has seen key support/resistance around 1.3700/1.3800 break. Due to the strength of the move up a deep retracement is quite likely however I will be closely watching price action for signs in either direction at this time.

GBP/USD – Support at 1.6000 is currently holding and so long as that remains the case I anticipate higher prices ahead.

USD/JPY – The downtrend has failed to make any significant progress over the last few weeks. I will be watching 83.00 for a possible signal.

AUD/USD – The uptrend remains intact at the moment although I had thought that price would have remained above 1.000 once broken and this hasn’t happened. Support/resistance around 0.9700/0.9800 should be of interest.

USD/CAD – The downtrend (albeit rather sideways at the moment) remains intact however 1.000 is proving difficult to break and price is rebounding up off of it again. I would expect support/resistance at 1.0200/1.0300 to hold if the downtrend is going to continue. A break above this level could open up the possibility of seeing 1.0500 again.

I have also made a little table as a snapshot kind of thing (attached) but it should be read in conjunction with my notes above!

Regards,

Dan
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  • #592
  • Nov 13, 2010 6:26am Nov 13, 2010 6:26am
Quoting bez3000
Just my opinion for what it's worth guys:

eurcad: BUOB at S&R and 50% fib with trend looks good.

euraud: looking for price to drop below 1.3650 and retest for a short.

audusd: price has dropped to previous resistance area when zoomed out, could that act as support for a long?

eurusd: will price make it down to 1.3350 area to meet strong S&R and 50%fib and possible TL touch for a long?

Just what i am looking at, any thoughts?

Have a great weekend all
Hi bez,

Good calls there. I particularly like the look of the EUR/CAD BUOB - it's one I will be taking.

Enjoy your weekend!

Regards,

Dan
  • #593
  • Nov 13, 2010 8:58am Nov 13, 2010 8:58am
Quoting DanUK
Hi bez,

Good calls there. I particularly like the look of the EUR/CAD BUOB - it's one I will be taking.

Enjoy your weekend!

Regards,

Dan
Hi ya Dan..

Just wondering if you were to take the EUR/CAD as a trade where would you place the stop?, 200pips away at 1.3650 on the Daily or 1.3740 with the bit of support to the left...or would you actually be trading off the 4HR with a tighter stop?..

Thanks for any explanation you could give..

Cheers,
Adrian
  • #594
  • Nov 14, 2010 3:35am Nov 14, 2010 3:35am
Quoting aarangio
Hi ya Dan..

Just wondering if you were to take the EUR/CAD as a trade where would you place the stop?, 200pips away at 1.3650 on the Daily or 1.3740 with the bit of support to the left...or would you actually be trading off the 4HR with a tighter stop?..

Thanks for any explanation you could give..

Cheers,
Adrian
Hi Adrian,

I prefer to keep things simple... my stop would be below the low of the setup bar (under 1.3650). The reason being is I see that as the point at which the setup becomes invalid (which is not to say the trend is invalid, just that particular entry).

Regards,

Dan
  • #595
  • Nov 14, 2010 5:14am Nov 14, 2010 5:14am
Quoting DanUK
Hi Adrian,

I prefer to keep things simple... my stop would be below the low of the setup bar (under 1.3650). The reason being is I see that as the point at which the setup becomes invalid (which is not to say the trend is invalid, just that particular entry).

Regards,

Dan
Hey Dan..

Thanks for the explanation on how you would go about stop placement..Big thanks!

Cheers,
Adrian
  • #596
  • Nov 14, 2010 9:00pm Nov 14, 2010 9:00pm
Quoting bez3000
Just my opinion for what it's worth guys:

eurcad: BUOB at S&R and 50% fib with trend looks good.

euraud: looking for price to drop below 1.3650 and retest for a short.

audusd: price has dropped to previous resistance area when zoomed out, could that act as support for a long?

eurusd: will price make it down to 1.3350 area to meet strong S&R and 50%fib and possible TL touch for a long?

Just what i am looking at, any thoughts?

Have a great weekend all

Hi Bez, I see where your looking with EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD
  • #597
  • Edited Nov 15, 2010 10:22pm Nov 14, 2010 11:59pm | Edited Nov 15, 2010 10:22pm
Dan,
Great thread, I just found it.
Did you read books (like Victor Sperandeo) during your first 3 years?
  • #598
  • Nov 15, 2010 1:21pm Nov 15, 2010 1:21pm
Hi Dan did you trade this BUOB, or miss it as today's bar did not break it?

Quoting DanUK
Hi bez,

Good calls there. I particularly like the look of the EUR/CAD BUOB - it's one I will be taking.

Enjoy your weekend!

Regards,

Dan
  • #599
  • Nov 15, 2010 1:29pm Nov 15, 2010 1:29pm
Quoting bez3000
Hi Dan did you trade this BUOB, or miss it as today's bar did not break it?
hi Bez, sorry for a newbie question but what is BUOB?

Thanks
  • #600
  • Nov 15, 2010 2:03pm Nov 15, 2010 2:03pm
Quoting tritan
hi Bez, sorry for a newbie question but what is BUOB?

Thanks
No problem tritan,

buob = bullish outside bar.
I would recommend reading up on price action on the james16 thread.
Good luck.
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