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Basket 14 EA System

  • #1,761
  • Nov 11, 2010 2:17pm Nov 11, 2010 2:17pm
Quoting frazerd
This one continues to close at least once every day. It closed 3 times today, once with only 1 trade. Lowest Margin still 791%.

EDIT: Make that 4 times today. BTW, I also added the x factor to this demo.
Hi Frazerd,

My Phantom_AddSix_01x closes twice today too but my PP: 1.0. I' m sure that your x mod reduces DD but I think a PP a bit bigger might be better: in my demos if I came into profit, it reached the target quickly without reversing. When the DD gets bigger, in my demos is because the EA has never been in profit before.
Anyway it is early, time will say......
  • #1,762
  • Nov 11, 2010 8:40pm Nov 11, 2010 8:40pm
Quoting Caillou
Hi Frazerd,

My Phantom_AddSix_01x closes twice today too but my PP: 1.0. I' m sure that your x mod reduces DD but I think a PP a bit bigger might be better: in my demos if I came into profit, it reached the target quickly without reversing. When the DD gets bigger, in my demos is because the EA has never been in profit before.
Anyway it is early, time will say......
Just remember, that EA without the x and with the default settings caused a margin call on my account very soon after I started running it. You can see that up at the top of the spreadsheet.

But I am considering raising the PP, maybe back up to 0.5.
Frazer
  • #1,763
  • Nov 12, 2010 2:04am Nov 12, 2010 2:04am
Quoting frazerd
Just remember, that EA without the x and with the default settings caused a margin call on my account very soon after I started running it. You can see that up at the top of the spreadsheet.

But I am considering raising the PP, maybe back up to 0.5.
Sure. The x mod is a must.....
  • #1,764
  • Nov 12, 2010 4:41am Nov 12, 2010 4:41am
Hi everyone,

I want to share some thoughts because I really don´t know if I´m right or not.

1.- Manual Intervention: we have recently in the thread some suggestions about setting a start time to run the ea (London Open, NY Open,...), or an end time (NY close), .... I think we have to give the EA a chance to recovery from any big market movement because if not, the next step will be avoid weekend gaps, or big news. We have a perfect syntetic hedge here and sooner or later, recovery will arrive.

2.- The PP factor: maybe I´m wrong but if any basket opened by the EA is able to reach for example a -9.5% DD, then it would be able to reach the same profit, +9.5%. If in my demos all baskets always have gone to at least -1.5% DD, then a 1.0% of PP must be easy to reach.
In my opinion the analysis of the DD is where I´m going to focus all my time and effort.

3.- Maximum DD: again I might be wrong but with a perfect syntetic hedge, DD will never be unlimited, so the main goal must be to establish the max DD tolerable for each leverage.

Sorry for a so long post but I am convinced that this EA is very profitable in the long term.
  • #1,765
  • Nov 12, 2010 10:08am Nov 12, 2010 10:08am
Quoting Caillou
3.- Maximum DD: again I might be wrong but with a perfect syntetic hedge, DD will never be unlimited, so the main goal must be to establish the max DD tolerable for each leverage.

Sorry for a so long post but I am convinced that this EA is very profitable in the long term.
Good thinking. I just posted in the Ph6 thread about margin calls and a possible lesson learned. I think it might apply here.

When margin level gets below 300% (or some other level we designate) close the biggest loser every hour, as well as adding the biggest winner(s) until the margin goes back above the designated level.

We have seen 2 cases now where a margin call actually helped the EA come into profit by closing biggest losers. Rather than waiting for margin calls, why not close biggest losers at some level above margin call? This level could be a external variable so that each trader could use whatever level he/she is comfortable with.

EDIT: It might even be a satisfactory substitute for those folks who are clamering for a stop loss.
Frazer
  • #1,766
  • Nov 12, 2010 10:19am Nov 12, 2010 10:19am
Today's updated spreadsheets.

AddSix_03x is the only one that has closed today.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls IBFX AddSix.xls   499 KB | 164 downloads
Frazer
  • #1,767
  • Nov 12, 2010 10:20am Nov 12, 2010 10:20am
Quoting frazerd
Good thinking. I just posted in the Ph6 thread about margin calls and a possible lesson learned. I think it might apply here.

When margin level gets below 300% (or some other level we designate) close the biggest loser every hour, as well as adding the biggest winner(s) until the margin goes back above the designated level.

We have seen 2 cases now where a margin call actually helped the EA come into profit by closing biggest losers. Rather than waiting for margin calls, why not close biggest losers at some level above margin call? This level...
Hi Frazerd,

This might be a very good idea. Cut looses could be an interesting way to reduce DD but what trades could be deleted? I mean maybe the biggest looser trade has already down enough and the lower looser is ready to down quickly and we cut the biggest, not the lower?
How can we know the POTENTIAL biggest looser?
  • #1,768
  • Nov 12, 2010 10:32am Nov 12, 2010 10:32am
Closed again.. hasn't missed a day since I started it and margin has never yet been below 791%. This one is on track for 20(+)% monthly profit and I was running it at PP .25 for about a week, so it could have been even better.

If this keeps up I may have to reconsider going offshore.

http://www.mt4i.com/users/frazerd-tad-03b-500/stats
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls TD_AddSix_03b_500-1_MMTU-0.2_PP-0.5.xls   99 KB | 211 downloads
Frazer
  • #1,769
  • Nov 12, 2010 10:41am Nov 12, 2010 10:41am
Quoting Caillou
Hi Frazerd,

This might be a very good idea. Cut looses could be an interesting way to reduce DD but what trades could be deleted? I mean maybe the biggest looser trade has already down enough and the lower looser is ready to down quickly and we cut the biggest, not the lower?
How can we know the POTENTIAL biggest looser?
Of course, there is no way of knowing that. What we would be looking for is the immediate effect of cutting the biggest loser to get the margin level back up. Once the market starts moving in our favor there would be no more cutting.

MC and I, months ago, tested EAs that cut losers. It did not work out well for the reason you have stated, but we were cutting losers every hour, regardless of margin level or any other criteria.
Frazer
  • #1,770
  • Nov 12, 2010 11:24am Nov 12, 2010 11:24am
Quoting Caillou
Sorry for a so long post but I am convinced that this EA is very profitable in the long term.
The goal is to make it as steady and trouble-free as possible but as we all know the forex market is a wild tiger.

The EAs do not in any way prevent manual overrides by the trader. In fact that is my suggested recourse for dealing with unwanted margin depletion, if it happens. I could never ever please everyone if I started baking in bailout mechanisms. Everyone wants something different, so I leave it to each individual to expand on the code, or use another party's code, or use manual measures to deal with any adverse situations.

I concentrate on building reliable software that is better than most manual traders at making money and I hope that's enough.
Open to new approaches.
  • #1,771
  • Nov 12, 2010 11:31am Nov 12, 2010 11:31am
Quoting frazerd
Closed again.. hasn't missed a day since I started it and margin has never yet been below 791%. This one is on track for 20(+)% monthly profit and I was running it at PP .25 for about a week, so it could have been even better.

If this keeps up I may have to reconsider going offshore.

http://www.mt4i.com/users/frazerd-tad-03b-500/stats
While our latest generation of EAs is able to do well for longer periods than any prior (as far as I know), the black swans are out there. The market does so many kinds of crazy gyrations at times that I just can't say if we'll ever get an EA that's GUARANTEED to ALWAYS kick out profit with no margin issues.

But we HAVE been successful at extending the amount of time our EAs can thrive, in a wide variety of trending and choppy action. I'm pleased with our progress to say the least.
Open to new approaches.
  • #1,772
  • Nov 12, 2010 1:38pm Nov 12, 2010 1:38pm
Hi,

Maybe it doesn' t have any sense but what will be the effect of reducing the Phantom Pairs to 3: for example Buy GBP/USD, Sell EUR/USD and Buy EUR/GBP ?

Will it be very difficult to modify Phantom_AddSix_01x EA this way?
  • #1,773
  • Nov 12, 2010 2:12pm Nov 12, 2010 2:12pm
Quoting Caillou
Hi,

Maybe it doesn' t have any sense but what will be the effect of reducing the Phantom Pairs to 3: for example Buy GBP/USD, Sell EUR/USD and Buy EUR/GBP ?

Will it be very difficult to modify Phantom_AddSix_01x EA this way?
It would probably not be hard and you could do it yourself even if you are not a programmer. Just open the mt4 file in Meta Editor and everywhere the code refers to the 6 pairs, just remove the ones you don't want and add any that you want that are not already there. There could be a little more to it than that, but when you Compile it the compiler will show you the errors and you may be able to figure out what else you need to do.
Frazer
  • #1,774
  • Nov 12, 2010 2:18pm Nov 12, 2010 2:18pm
Quoting frazerd
It would probably not be hard and you could do it yourself even if you are not a programmer. Just open the mt4 file in Meta Editor and everywhere the code refers to the 6 pairs, just remove the ones you don't want and add any that you want that are not already there. There could be a little more to it than that, but when you Compile it the compiler will show you the errors and you may be able to figure out what else you need to do.
I will try this evening but do you think it may be worth? I mean it could have advantages?
  • #1,775
  • Nov 12, 2010 2:28pm Nov 12, 2010 2:28pm
Quoting Caillou
I will try this evening but do you think it may be worth? I mean it could have advantages?
It might work very well. We will never know until you try it. It would certainly trade less than with 6 pairs and that could make a big difference in DD and margin issues. But it will also have fewer pairs to help get you into profit, so it may be just a wash or trade off.
Frazer
  • #1,776
  • Nov 12, 2010 2:36pm Nov 12, 2010 2:36pm
Quoting frazerd
It might work very well. We will never know until you try it. It would certainly trade less than with 6 pairs and that could make a big difference in DD and margin issues. But it will also have fewer pairs to help get you into profit, so it may be just a wash or trade off.
Hi MC,

What do you think?
  • #1,777
  • Nov 12, 2010 2:38pm Nov 12, 2010 2:38pm
Try it and satisfy your curiosity.
Open to new approaches.
  • #1,778
  • Nov 12, 2010 4:38pm Nov 12, 2010 4:38pm
Quoting MetaCoder
Try it and satisfy your curiosity.
Done. Apparently it must work since Compiler shows 0 errors and 0 warnings.
Will try Sunday evening and if it is ok I will post on Monday
  • #1,779
  • Nov 12, 2010 6:08pm Nov 12, 2010 6:08pm
Caillou,

Im about a day ahead of you on trading 3 pair hedge. I modified phantom6 01a to trade just 3 pairs. I started it thursday morning mmtu .5 with pp at .25%. So far there has been one profit close. Too early to tell how it will work. I also added the "x" factor to take only trades that are positive.
First leg closed with just 5 trades, current second leg has 17 trades open -1.08% as of market close. was caught with 4 long aud/usd trades that are big losers right now. By the way the 3 pairs Im trading are aud/usd and usd/cad buy, aud/cad sell. No reason just the 3 that popped into my head at the moment. Many diff. combos you could try. Got caught with the wrong way aud/usd trades because right after the first leg closed aud/usd went into a retrace up then back down again so it was the big winner for few hours. which now brings me to the question thats been bugging me for a while.

Has any one thought of doing a secondary check against the hourly trend before letting the EA make a trade. I went thru the 4 phantom demos that Im running and just eye balled the trades that were the big losers. I noticed about 70% were trades that were taken against the hourly trend.
Now what I mean by the hourly trend is I plotted a 24 ema on the hourly charts so basicaly the average price for the last day of trading. This seemed to happen alot on startups or phantom resets.

Not trying to clutter up an already good set of Ea's as Im not much on using indicators myself, but emas are useful for trend following and that is really what the phantoms are doing correct, following the short term trend.
So maybe add something like only take the trade if current price is above/below the hourly 24 ema. Im always looking for ways to take less trades and get less drawdown and I think this would do that. Now long term would it work well? Would have to test it.
I know almost nothing about programing Ea's so this would be impossible for me to code. I can add/delete things and change some of what MC has already done but thats the scope of my knowledge. If anyone is interested in this idea and knows how to code it I would love to test it.
  • #1,780
  • Nov 12, 2010 6:40pm Nov 12, 2010 6:40pm
Quoting thorn
Caillou,

Im about a day ahead of you on trading 3 pair hedge. I modified phantom6 01a to trade just 3 pairs. I started it thursday morning mmtu .5 with pp at .25%. So far there has been one profit close. Too early to tell how it will work. I also added the "x" factor to take only trades that are positive.
First leg closed with just 5 trades, current second leg has 17 trades open -1.08% as of market close. was caught with 4 long aud/usd trades that are big losers right now. By the way the 3 pairs Im trading are aud/usd and usd/cad buy, aud/cad...
one quick feedback on going with hourly trend is it will NOT guarantee you the synthetic hedge and hence can get margin call theoritically

in the current versions of EAs, we always BUY certain pairs and always SELL certain other pairs, so this constitutes a synthetic hedge. now if we go as per ema, we may end up all 6 pairs in LONG and after sometime market may reverse and you get into huge DD

if you mean to say dont change the direction (BUY/SELL), only a additional condition for ema then sythetic hedge will not be disturbed but you may not reach PP quickly as there will be very few trades and there is no guarantee that trend will remain intact for the day. things could change

with x factor the DD issue is addressed to some extent.

with lesser PP (may be 0.5) we can close the basket quickly

just my 2c
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