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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #263,861
  • Nov 9, 2010 8:14pm Nov 9, 2010 8:14pm
Quoting javapips
my target is so high, 400 pips maybe (sure if not break last low),..and so sorry i don't give much contribution like give some chart as you do, i'm a lazy person..
good luck to you... have a good day
400?

That would most certainly be a chart worth having a gander at to be sure.

Given a certain understanding that we closed a pretty serious low whilst London was closed, the chance and probability of testing this area be a good one, having a 400 pip topside target, prior to a London test, seems a little hasty...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #263,862
  • Edited 8:45pm Nov 9, 2010 8:24pm | Edited 8:45pm
Quoting javapips
my target is so high, 400 pips maybe (sure if not break last low),..and so sorry i don't give much contribution like give some chart as you do, i'm a lazy person..
good luck to you... have a good day
I have a similar target on the carry trade, actually a bit higher. 16490.
Let's see if we get there. Not sure about today though...lol

Intraday has been nice in both directions on the lower TFs along the way.



btw: we didn't get the 1H close above 6010 ...back down to the Daily Open again.

Quoting Fudomyo
Still loitering under the DPP around 6010, so that's the first step. They may just skip the pullback altogether and go for the MPP next if this area doesn't hold as support.
If the hourly closes above 6010, that would help the short term cause for the north.
  • #263,863
  • Nov 9, 2010 8:49pm Nov 9, 2010 8:49pm
battling it out again at this 50% fib 2 week swing low to swing high
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  • #263,864
  • Nov 9, 2010 9:36pm Nov 9, 2010 9:36pm
A little update on the IBFX CPR charts.

From what was posted last night to what has happened seems to be pretty much on key. The long term hourly shroud proved topside resistance and the break down on the hourly 200EMA and hourly support zone proved to show an idea of direction and overall market movement....

Whoa....

I posted a link to IBFXs webinars yesterday, and sadly was not able to attend today, but was offered a private webinar by Accounts Relationship Manager, Ben Schneider for a group interested in viewing this indicator and trade system.

I have no history with IBFX, nor do I use them as a live trade broker and have only recently begun working with their charts and this indicator. Color me impressed with customer service, if they are willing to extend this private session to a group of FF members interested.

If you would be interested in attending a private webinar, learn a little about the CPR indicator and trade system, let me know via PM. I would have to get a head count in order for them to make this available.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #263,865
  • Nov 10, 2010 1:43am Nov 10, 2010 1:43am
Quoting Mr.Elliott
used to be like that....always try to pick bottom.... but could't stand buying the soap every now and then...to wash my fingers....
dear all,

i have found repeatedly that picking tops and bottoms can be injurious...lol. however when it pays, it pays big time. i have wondered whether there is a way to do it that will bring in a higher % of positive pips? also is it not okay to do it in the direction of overall trend (trend determination remains an issue for me).
  • #263,866
  • Nov 10, 2010 1:50am Nov 10, 2010 1:50am
Quoting darrenware
Only reason it's selling is FEAR no other reason
wonder ...fear of what? just cant seem to make up its mind. driving me wires! at the mo just cant seem to have an inkling what to expect next. it has crashed through most of my far back trend lines. currently sitting on the last one on 1hr chart. if it goes thru that one i will take the loss and sit out watching for the rest of the day.....
  • #263,867
  • Nov 10, 2010 2:01am Nov 10, 2010 2:01am
To Lechidi,

No body knows top of the top and bottom of the bottom of a trend for certain period of time

But the area of top and bottom of a certain trend based on specific time frame ( monthly,weekly,monthly..............m1 ) could be predicted my imo.

like a seismologist, can they predict exact time of eartquake and tsunamy ? like a vulcanologist, can they predict exact time of volcano's erruption ? But they can make disaster area prediction and identify behavour of the plate and beginning of volcano's erruption

Like geologist and geophycist say.... oil is in your brain . and trader could say ... top and bottom of certain trend is in your brain

rgds,iqyu

Quoting lechidi
dear all,

i have found repeatedly that picking tops and bottoms can be injurious...lol. however when it pays, it pays big time. i have wondered whether there is a way to do it that will bring in a higher % of positive pips? also is it not okay to do it in the direction of overall trend (trend determination remains an issue for me).
not euphoria follower
  • #263,868
  • Nov 10, 2010 2:06am Nov 10, 2010 2:06am
Quoting iqyu5an
To Lechidi,

No body knows top of the top and bottom of the bottom of a trend for certain period of time

But the...
guess ur right mate. again i think it just goes down to your MM to ensure you give trade enuf room to breathe and then see if the bottom really becomes the bottom and vise versa...
  • #263,869
  • Nov 10, 2010 2:08am Nov 10, 2010 2:08am
Im finding most pairs a bit hard to read right now... Cable and EUR have channeled a bit after big drops. Weve seen some bounces off the 1.596 region in the last few hours, but everything is pretty quiet so far...

What do you think Iqyusan? Bounce long soon? Or short if we get a good break through 1.596? Theres a bit of resistance above with out fibs, but im still a bit unsure whats going on!
  • #263,870
  • Nov 10, 2010 2:09am Nov 10, 2010 2:09am
Quoting Fudomyo
I have a similar target on the carry trade, actually a bit higher. 16490.
Let's see if we get there. Not sure about today though...lol

Intraday has been nice in both directions on the lower TFs along the way.



btw: we didn't get the 1H close above 6010 ...back down to the Daily Open again.
think this sideways movement is waiting the GBP news coming up in an hour..?
  • #263,871
  • Nov 10, 2010 2:10am Nov 10, 2010 2:10am
yeah good MM and trend of higher TF can protect us from margin call and SL brother ....

dont be hurry and react instantly in lower TF. Always plan the trade and trade the plan ....

Rgds,iqyu


Quoting lechidi
guess ur right mate. again i think it just goes down to your MM to ensure you give trade enuf room to breathe and then see if the bottom really becomes the bottom and vise versa...
not euphoria follower
  • #263,872
  • Nov 10, 2010 2:20am Nov 10, 2010 2:20am
Hi Jazz...

how r u ?
For longterm bias....overall i am still bullish

But after, monthly TP hit too fast
my imo ( shorterm bias ) here : http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=879

Looks like we're in correction to 50-61 monthly before bull continuation like drop in week#1 of august. ( just check it out ... )

Well ... i could b wrong and time will tell

Happy trading

rgds,iqyu



Quoting Jazznos
Im finding most pairs a bit hard to read right now... Cable and EUR have channeled a bit after big drops. Weve seen some bounces off the 1.596 region in the last few hours, but everything is pretty quiet so far...

What do you think Iqyusan? Bounce long soon? Or short if we get a good break through 1.596? Theres a bit of resistance above with out fibs, but im still a bit unsure whats going on!
not euphoria follower
  • #263,873
  • Nov 10, 2010 2:29am Nov 10, 2010 2:29am
Quoting chazzle
battling it out again at this 50% fib 2 week swing low to swing high
Definately seems to be holding at that level for sure . Time for long?
You've got to be IN IT to WIN IT!
  • #263,874
  • Nov 10, 2010 2:30am Nov 10, 2010 2:30am
Quoting iqyu5an
Hi Jazz...

how r u ?
For longterm bias....overall i am still bullish...
Going ok, but unsure tonight...! Entered long EU just now, see if i can get 20-30 off that. So you think short cable tonight? hmmmm... tricky :-)
  • #263,875
  • Nov 10, 2010 2:36am Nov 10, 2010 2:36am
G/M 231 pip drop off yesterday's 6183, the lo @ 5950 coming just a few pips away from the 61.8% 5727-6297 move. Recovery has been curtailed by the previous 1hr swing lo co-existant with the 23.6% of the 6260-5950 move.

Near-term below current lo is 5930-monthly pivot, 5911-5898 3 x unbreeched fibs, 5885-76 previous 1hr/4hr swing lo zone.

Boe Qtrly inflation report later this morning.

G/L
ex member
  • #263,876
  • Nov 10, 2010 2:42am Nov 10, 2010 2:42am
Right now, i see usdx in correction.... anticipate to last week high.

For major... i see .... major currency ( non USD ) is going UP a little then could drop . for GU ... could go to 38 weekly then drop to ( my imo )to 50-61 monthly or bear weekly/bear daily target if 38 weekly reject it . But it depends on price action ya

short cable tonight ? hmmmmmm sorry bro i could not predict the time

rgds,iqyu

not a call

Quoting Jazznos
Going ok, but unsure tonight...! Entered long EU just now, see if i can get 20-30 off that. So you think short cable tonight? hmmmm... tricky :-)
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not euphoria follower
  • #263,877
  • Nov 10, 2010 2:47am Nov 10, 2010 2:47am
Quoting Ifty
Definately seems to be holding at that level for sure . Time for long?
Hi Ifty...this is what I am seeing so far...trading this channel waiting breakout
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  • #263,878
  • Edited 3:17am Nov 10, 2010 2:49am | Edited 3:17am
Quoting lechidi
think this sideways movement is waiting the GBP news coming up in an hour..?
The Inflation report is the main news event this week for GBP.

You can take one of two views on the outcome. Either we've positioned down for the news and BOE will not change rates or hint towards QE in which case we'll probably go up, or they may hint towards some form of necessary action if the two year forecast is bad, in which case we drop.

Not trading the release. only the lead up if we get any movement, and of course the reaction after event volatility.

We should get some nice PA going into NY session, London and Europe close, and potentially after NY lunch which, for me, makes more sense to trade than news.

As far as picking tops and bottoms is concerned, the 2 main reasons retail traders fail are because they're not able to take deliberate losses on bad trades and from trying to pick tops and bottoms. (this is what makes them the easiest group to trade against, because they often will adopt a counter-trend stance)

For all the bravado involved in making great calls, it has little to do with the bread and butter of this profession. Trading, when done correctly, is a very boring activity based on working within statistical probabilities to minimize exposure while building account equity on a steady basis. ....lol


Speaking of good trading, here's the recent bank stats from Bloomberg.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. racked up a perfect trading record for the second time this year, making money every day last quarter after accomplishing the same feat in the first three months of 2010.

Cumulatively, the results mean the New York-based bank made more than $200 million on 12 days in the first nine months and lost money on only eight, JPMorgan said today in a regulatory filing.

JPMorgan, the No. 2 U.S. lender by assets, follows Bank of America Corp. in reporting a perfect record for the quarter. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which makes the most revenue on Wall Street trading stocks and bonds, had losses in that business on two days during the third quarter while Morgan Stanley reported 10 losing days for the period.

Trading revenue at eight of the biggest Wall Street firms declined an average 12 percent through September from the same period a year ago. Goldman Sachs generated 69 percent of revenue this year from trading, and said third-quarter trading results declined 36 percent. The seven days that New York-based Goldman Sachs made more than $100 million last quarter were the fewest since the fourth quarter of 2006.


Quoting lechidi
dear all,

i have found repeatedly that picking tops and bottoms can be injurious...lol. however when it pays, it pays big time. i have wondered whether there is a way to do it that will bring in a higher % of positive pips? also is it not okay to do it in the direction of overall trend (trend determination remains an issue for me).
  • #263,879
  • Nov 10, 2010 2:55am Nov 10, 2010 2:55am
If Boe Governor King is true to form the upcoming Boe Qtrly inflation report (whish also includes report on growth and employment prospects) will likely see high volatility around release time and subsequent press conference. If King admits that inflation forecaasts have been wrong and will remain high as well as lower growth than forecast the £ could come under pressure. Depends how dovish/hawkish he will be. Event is carried live via the Boe website: http://www.lmgtfy.com/?q=bank+of+england

G/L
ex member
  • #263,880
  • Nov 10, 2010 2:59am Nov 10, 2010 2:59am
Quoting bbmac
If Boe Governor King is true to form the upcoming Boe Qtrly inflation report (whish also includes report on growth and employment prospects) will likely see high volatility around release time and subsequent press conference. If King admits that inflation forecaasts have been wrong and will remain high as well as lower growth than forecast the £ could come under pressure. Depends how dovish/hawkish he will be. Event is carried live via the Boe website: http://www.lmgtfy.com/?q=bank+of+england

G/L
thank you for information + link : )
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
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